政治牌操作不再靈光 泛民需找「最大公約數」

<轉載自2018年3月13日 明報 社評>

立法會4個議席補選，民主派只能取回兩個直選議席，未能重奪議會分組點票否決權，姚松炎敗走九龍西，更屬意料之外。民主派首次在立法會直選議席「單挑」輸給建制派，對民主派是重大警號，必須痛定思痛深切檢討。補選結果顯示，選民心態有變，「政治牌」不再靈光；中間派選民成為不可忽視的力量，他們也不會只考慮單一政治議題。近年泛民政治光譜愈益碎片化，民主派需要思考如何求取「最大公約數」，同時以紮實地區工作和理性務實表現，爭取更多中間選民支持。

非建制光譜碎片化 「反DQ」谷票未見效

過往泛民鬥建制，有所謂「六四定律」，即兩者得票率約為六四之比，可是今次補選顯示，泛民「單對單」優勢已經減少。新界東以往被視為泛民票倉，惟范國威得票率只有44.6%，僅較建制派對手鄧家彪高7.5個百分點；港島區諾軒得票率為50.7%，僅較陳家珮高3.5個百分點；九龍西姚松炎得票率只有48.8%，以1個百分點之差（2419多票）落敗。誠然，今次補選性質近似「單議席單票制」，跟換屆選舉奉行比例代表制、能夠較全面反映非建制光譜選民的總力量，情况有所不同，惟建制與民主派差距確有縮窄之勢，「六四定律」似已一去不返。

歷史經驗顯示，低投票率對民主派較為不利。今次補選3區總投票率介乎42%至44%，較2016年換屆選舉少近17個百分點，有泛民中人和學者將低投票率歸咎於「政府宣傳不足」和「媒體較少報道」，又或很多市民對政治灰心，放棄投票，云云，然而催谷支持者投票，是候選人的責任，沒理由將自己不濟算到他人頭上；至於「灰心論」，也許的確反映了一些非建制派選民的心態，惟始終是印象觀感多於實證。沒有投票的選民，究竟有多少是因為無力感而放棄投票，沒有客觀數據可言；針對有投票的選民做分析，才能得出較有意義的啟示。

今次補選結果，顯示選民心態的確出現了微妙變化。以往立法會選舉，「政治牌」都是民主派殺手鐧，然而這次補選反映，光靠打政治議題牌難再穩勝。這次補選源於立法會議席宣誓風波，多名議員遭DQ（取消資格），身為主角之一的姚松炎，競選期間也大打「反DQ牌」拉票，最終卻落敗收場，顯示DQ風波雖然激怒民主派核心支持者，可是一般市民反應較為平淡。

預算案引發的民粹派錢呼聲，突顯市民對政府長期施政無方的憤懣，可是民主派並未一如過往，受惠於反政府情緒。由高鐵一地兩檢、鄭若驊僭建風波、周庭被DQ，乃至人大修憲撤除國家主席任期限制，民主派的政治牌着實不少，然而全不管用。這是否反映很多選民，尤其是中間派，對近年立法會爭拗不休、拉布流會頻頻、政治操作太濫，感到愈益厭煩？民主派必須深思。

中間派選民厭倦爭拗 泛民應檢討路線策略

當然，近年非建制派政治光譜碎片化，亦是今次民主派受挫的原因。范國威所得票數，遠少於2016年立法會補選公民黨楊岳橋和本土派梁天琦的總得票，顯示范國威與本土派交惡，流失大量非建制派選票。至於本土派支持的姚松炎，則流失了大量基層選票。九龍西初選，本土派與傳統民主派民協鬧得甚僵，明顯影響了姚松炎選情。雖然民協不計前嫌助姚松炎拉票，可是卻阻不了建制派鄭泳舜攻下民協區議員所屬選區。姚松炎選舉策略失誤，過度相信社交媒體威力，主攻青年和中產選民，卻不重視屋邨落區拉票，是落敗致命傷。2016年立法會換屆選舉，主流泛民與本土派在九龍西共獲16萬選票，現在姚僅獲10.5萬票，票源流失嚴重。有本土派支持者將姚松炎敗選，歸咎於個別新屋邨「親建制」新移民眾多，其實是轉移線視，找新移民做「出氣袋」。

相比之下，區諾軒在港島區勝出，原因之一是較能成功動員主流民主派和本土派選民﹕前年立法會選舉，有投票的港島區兩派選民直逼17萬，今次區諾軒得票逾13萬，票源流失未算太嚴重。另外，區諾軒攻下新民黨在太古城和海怡西選區的票倉，似乎亦顯示他爭取到一批中間派選民。近年泛民與建制派鬥爭不休，造就了一批厭倦黨同伐異的中間派選民。2016年立法會選舉，港島區中間派候選人得票超過一成。今次港島區補選，中間派選票由建制與泛民瓜分，在兩派基本盤旗鼓相當下，中間選民可能成為了決定勝負的關鍵少數；新界東的方國珊今次得票約6.5萬張，較兩年前躍進近一倍，亦突顯獨立中間路線有市場。

今次補選對民主派來說是一個警號，主流民主派政黨必須認真思考，如何在非建制派支持者中尋找「最大公約數」，以及盡量開拓中間派票源，確保接地氣、貼民情，不能一味靠打「政治牌」谷票。民主派應減少意識形態操作，多做實事和地區工作，一味被激進政治聲音牽着走，並不明智。

Political cards no longer work

IN the Legislative Council (Legco) by-elections held to fill four vacancies, the pro-democracy camp managed to win only two directly-elected seats. It failed to regain its split-voting veto, and Edward Yiu's defeat in Kowloon West was quite unexpected. The pro-democracy camp has lost for the first time to the pro-establishment camp in a one-to-one contest for a Legco seat. That to democrats is a serious warning. It is necessary for them to draw a lesson from the bitter experience and do a thoroughgoing review. It is clear from the by-election outcome that voter mindsets have changed and "political cards" no longer do the trick.

There are in fact many political cards democrats could have availed themselves of. They include the co-location of immigration checkpoints at the express rail link terminal, Teresa Cheng's unauthorised building works, Agnes Chow's being disqualified and the constitutional amendment to lift the term restriction on the presidency (which has gone through the National People's Congress). However, none of them was of much help. Does that show many a voter is becoming increasingly tired of the Legco's many failures to form a quorum and unending rows, frequent filibustering and indiscriminate use of political manipulation in the legislative chamber? Democrats ought to give this question a lot of thought.

The fragmentation of the political groups that are not pro-establishment is of course a cause of the pro-democracy camp's setback. Yiu adopted misguided electoral tactics. Having excessive faith in the power of social media, he targeted mainly at young and middle-class voters and attached little importance to canvassing public rental housing tenants for votes. That was a mortal wound — what mainly led to his defeat. In the 2016 Legco election, mainstream pan-democrats and localists got between them 160,000 votes in Kowloon West. Yiu got just 105,000. Many votes went other ways.

One reason why Au Nok-hin won on Hong Kong Island is that he was quite able to mobilise voters who are mainstream democrats or localists. At the Legco election held the year before last, almost 170,000 voters belonging to either category went to the polls. Au got over 130,000 votes. The vote drain does not count as serious. Moreover, Au captured the New People's Party's vote depots in Tai Koo Shing and South Horizons West. That seems to show he has won over some moderate voters. Because of unending rows between the pan-democratic camp and the pro-establishment camp, quite a large number of moderate voters have in recent years emerged who are sick of those who gang up people having similar ideas to attack those who do not share their views. In the 2016 Legco election, moderate candidates won more than 10% of the vote on Hong Kong Island. Yesterday, in the by-election there, the pan-democratic camp and the pro-establishment camp got moderates' votes between them. As their staunch supporters number more or less the same, moderate voters might have been the critical minority that decided a candidate's success.

The by-election outcome is to democrats a warning. Mainstream pro-democracy parties must think in earnest how to find the "highest common factor" among supporters not in the pro-establishment camp. They must also do their best to get votes from people having moderate views and make sure that they keep their fingers on the pulse of public sentiment. They can no longer rely just on "political cards" to get many votes. Democrats should do less ideological manipulation and try harder to do real work and engage in community activities. It is not wise just to allow radical political utterances to lead oneself by the nose.

政治牌操作不再靈光 泛民需找「最大公約數」

立法會4個議席補選，民主派只能取回兩個直選議席，未能重奪議會分組點票否決權，姚松炎敗走九龍西，更屬意料之外。民主派首次在立法會直選議席「單挑」輸給建制派，對民主派是重大警號，必須痛定思痛深切檢討。補選結果顯示，選民心態有變，「政治牌」不再靈光。

由高鐵一地兩檢、鄭若驊僭建風波、周庭被DQ，乃至人大修憲撤除國家主席任期限制，民主派的政治牌着實不少，然而全不管用。這是否反映很多選民，尤其是中間派，對近年立法會爭拗不休、拉布流會頻頻、政治操作太濫，感到愈益厭煩？民主派必須深思。

當然，近年非建制派政治光譜碎片化，亦是今次民主派受挫的原因。姚松炎選舉策略失誤，過度相信社交媒體威力，主攻青年和中產選民，卻不重視屋邨落區拉票，是落敗致命傷。2016年立法會換屆選舉，主流泛民與本土派在九龍西共獲16萬選票，現在姚僅獲10.5萬票，票源流失嚴重。

區諾軒在港島區勝出，原因之一是較能成功動員主流民主派和本土派選民﹕前年立法會選舉，有投票的港島區兩派選民直逼17萬，今次區諾軒得票逾13萬，票源流失未算太嚴重。另外，區諾軒攻下新民黨在太古城和海怡西選區的票倉，似乎亦顯示他爭取到一批中間派選民。近年泛民與建制派鬥爭不休，造就了一批厭倦黨同伐異的中間派選民。2016年立法會選舉，港島區中間派候選人得票超過一成。今次港島區補選，中間派選票由建制與泛民瓜分，在兩派基本盤旗鼓相當下，中間選民可能成為了決定勝負的關鍵少數。

今次補選對民主派來說是一個警號，主流民主派政黨必須認真思考，如何在非建制派支持者中尋找「最大公約數」，以及盡量開拓中間派票源，確保接地氣、貼民情，不能一味靠打「政治牌」谷票。民主派應減少意識形態操作，多做實事和地區工作，一味被激進政治聲音牽着走，並不明智。