劉鶴訪美滅火 中美矛盾難解

<轉載自2018年3月5日 明報 社評>

中共中央政治局委員、中央財經領導小組辦公室主任劉鶴結束了他的美國之行，就在他訪美期間，美國總統特朗普宣布了對進口鋼、鋁產品課徵新關稅，雖然此舉對墨西哥、加拿大及巴西等國的影響比對中國更大，但外界還是將此視之為特朗普政府對華貿易戰的先聲。這反映了美國朝野對華情緒的變化。而劉鶴此行能否扭轉美方的這種情緒，目前看並不樂觀。

改革開放中美交集 時移世易美方失望

從公開報道看，劉鶴此次訪美，除與美國企業界高層會面外，還與美國財長梅努欽、白宮經濟顧問科恩和美國貿易談判代表萊特希澤一連兩天會談，雙方均稱會談是「坦誠、有益、具建設性的」，但具體成果卻欠奉。身為中共中央政治局委員的劉鶴，今次不惜請假缺席中共中央三中全會，突顯訪美議題緊迫；而同為政治局委員的國務委員楊潔篪，2月上旬剛剛到訪過美國，與美國總統特朗普、國務卿蒂勒森會面。中國一個月內派兩名政治局委員到訪華盛頓 ，也是前所未有的。因此，劉鶴此行，恐怕遠不止阻止中美貿易戰這麼簡單，有報道指劉鶴此行是代表中方向美國作「戰略交底」，確認中國的改革開放方針不會改變。

今年是中國改革開放40周年，「文革」結束後，在鄧小平倡導下，中共中央達成共識：中國要實現現代化，必須改革開放，必須自西方引進先進技術和先進管理經驗，而對外開放和引進的重點是美國。這樣一來，實現中美關係正常化，就成為保證對外開放路線順利實現的關鍵。中美關係的發展，也就和中國國內的改革開放路線緊密地聯繫起來。推動中美關係正常化，不僅是在冷戰格局中維護中國國家安全的迫切需要，更是鄧小平改革開放路線的內在需要。中美建交的直接動力，除了引進先進技術和管理經驗，也為中國國內建設和改革開放，創造了一個有利的國際環境。

自1978年以來的改革開放，成功令中國登上了全球舞台的中央，美國原來希望這個共產主義國家變得「更像我們」的試驗，結果令其大失所望。從八九六四，到銀河號事件、台海危機，從「誤炸」中國駐南斯拉夫使館，到海南島撞機事件，再從人權、網絡安全、知識產權紛爭，到近年南海島礁紛爭、朝鮮核危機，中美兩國的戰略分歧日益明顯。

對華失望的情緒近年來在美國朝野瀰漫，以致在奧巴馬總統後期，美國外交學術界曾經有過一場對華政策是否失敗的大辯論，對中國戰略欺騙的上當感和對中國威脅的恐懼感疊加發酵，加上習近平執政後，中國對不同於西方發展道路的自信與張揚，更加劇了中美之間的戰略互疑。

在此背景下，美國對華態度漸趨強硬，特朗普政府早前發表的《國家安全戰略》，把中國與俄羅斯並列為戰略競爭對手，美國國會更先後通過准許美國軍艦停泊台灣的《國防授權法》及促進美台高官互訪的《台灣旅行法》，國務卿蒂勒森更直接批評中國是國際秩序的「修正主義勢力」、「新帝國主義」。

美方施壓胃口更大 戰略互疑漸行漸遠

「改革開放」現在成了美方向中國施壓進行自由化的利器。但習近平強調堅持「改革開放」的「正確方向」，已彰顯中國與新自由主義經濟路線漸行漸遠，這也是導致美方對中國逐漸失去戰略耐心的主因。就在去年中共十九大習近平的報告發表後，特朗普政府一名匿名高官就表示，美國對中國近年在市場改革上缺乏進展十分失望。美國現在擔憂中國的政府補貼、產能過剩以及工業政策，希望中國繼續堅持改革開放，但中美全面經濟對話並沒能給美方帶來理想的結果。

據美國傳媒報道，在今次與美方的會面和談判中，劉鶴提出了連串擴大外資企業在華市場准入的舉措，包括允許外資進入保險等金融行業。但美方「胃口」更大，提出了包括取消國企補貼等更高的要求。就在劉鶴抵美當天，美方公布了《2018年貿易政策綱要暨2017年度報告》，報告中批評中國採取的「中央統制經濟模式」，政府角色很大，並在不斷加大；又指中國加入世貿組織（WTO）多年，至今並未採取市場經濟模式，反而遠離了這一模式。美方的要求與指摘，突顯出華府對中國以市場與政府兩手發展經濟發展模式的誤解。在此背景下，劉鶴此次重申改革開放不會動搖的「滅火之旅」，與1999年朱鎔基訪美的「消氣之旅」一樣，恐怕都難奏效。

多年來，中國一直能夠較好地應對美國新總統上任帶來的不穩定性，而到總統任期結束時，中美關係一般都會有所改善，從克林頓到小布殊都證明了這一規律。但這一次，特朗普的轉變過程，能否快得過他身邊對華鷹派的攤牌動作，值得警惕。

Firefighting tour fails to resolve Sino-US conflicts

LIU HE, a member of the Politburo of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and director of the Central Leading Group for Financial and Economic Affairs, has concluded his tour to the United States. During Liu's visit, US President Donald Trump announced new tariffs on steel and aluminium products. While it is true that the tariffs will have a greater impact on countries like Mexico, Canada and Brazil than on China, the action has nevertheless been interpreted by observers as the opening salvo in a trade war between the Trump administration and China. The action reflects a change of US official and public sentiments towards China, making one pessimistic about whether Liu's visit can reverse such sentiments.

According to public reports, Liu's visit to the States has failed to achieve anything concrete. A member of the CPC Politburo, Liu went to extraordinary lengths to make the visit, even absenting from the third plenary session of the CPC Central Committee. Obviously, he had been tasked with handling some urgent issues. In fact, State Councillor Yang Jiechi, another Politburo member, visited the States in early February and met with US President Trump and Secretary of State Tillerson. By dispatching two Politburo members within a month to Washington, the Chinese authorities have made an unprecedented move.

In recent years, successive governments and the public of United States have been caught up in a mood of disillusion towards China. So pervasive was such an atmosphere that late into Obama's presidency, there was a great debate within American academic and diplomatic circles about whether the US's policy to China had failed. The feeling that the US has been deceived by China's stratagem has been compounded by the fear of the threats posed by the country. Moreover, since Xi Jinping's ascent to power, China, on a development path different from that of the west, has demonstrated a kind of self-confidence and swagger that has further intensified the strategic distrust between the two countries.

It is against this backdrop that the US has gradually assumed a more hard-line attitude towards China. Not long ago, the Trump administration described China and Russia as its strategic competitors and rivals in the president's National Security Strategy. Later, Congress passed the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), which sanctions US warships to conduct port calls in Taiwan, and the Taiwan Travel Act, which promotes mutual visits between high-level officials of the two sides. Secretary of State Tillerson even accused China directly of being a "revisionist power" and a "new imperial power" seeking to challenge the international order.

The "reform and opening-up" policy pursued by China has become the US's rationale for pressing China towards greater liberalisation. But Xi's emphasis of staying in the "right direction" of "reform and opening-up" has shown that China is moving further and further away from the line of economic neoliberalism. This is the main reason for the gradual loss of the US's strategic patience with China.

According to US media reports, Liu offered in his meetings and talks with US officials a series of measures to expand foreign companies' access into China's market by, for example, allowing foreign capital to enter the finance and insurance sector. But the US has shown a much bigger "appetite" and demanded more, including the abolition of subsidies to Chinese state-owned enterprises. Exactly on the day Liu arrived in US, the US published the 2018 Trade Policy Agenda and 2017 Annual Report, in which it criticised China for adopting a "model of centrally controlled economy", with the government playing a big and continuously expanding role in the model. It also said despite China's entry into WTO so many years ago, it has yet to adopt the model of market economy and has even distanced from it.

The demands and accusations made by the US have underscored Washington's misunderstanding of China's model of economic development, which is driven by both market and government forces. Such being the case, we are afraid that Liu's "firefighting tour", during which he reiterated China's unwavering pursuit of reform and opening-up, has been in vain, as was the "mollification tour" in 1999 by then premier Zhu Rongji to US.

劉鶴訪美滅火 中美矛盾難解

中共中央政治局委員、中央財經領導小組辦公室主任劉鶴結束了他的美國之行，就在他訪美期間，美國總統特朗普宣布了對進口鋼、鋁產品課徵新關稅，雖然此舉對墨西哥、加拿大及巴西等國的影響比對中國更大，但外界還是將此視之為特朗普政府對華貿易戰的先聲。這反映了美國朝野對華情緒的變化。而劉鶴此行能否扭轉美方的這種情緒，目前看並不樂觀。

從公開報道看，劉鶴此次訪美，具體成果卻欠奉。身為中共中央政治局委員的劉鶴，今次不惜請假缺席中共中央三中全會，突顯訪美議題緊迫；而同為政治局委員的國務委員楊潔篪，2月上旬剛剛到訪過美國，與美國總統特朗普、國務卿蒂勒森會面。中國一個月內派兩名政治局委員到訪華盛頓 ，也是前所未有的。

對華失望的情緒近年來在美國朝野瀰漫，以致在奧巴馬總統後期，美國外交學術界曾經有過一場對華政策是否失敗的大辯論，對中國戰略欺騙的上當感和對中國威脅的恐懼感疊加發酵，加上習近平執政後，中國對不同於西方發展道路的自信與張揚，更加劇了中美之間的戰略互疑。

在此背景下，美國對華態度漸趨強硬，特朗普政府早前發表的《國家安全戰略》，把中國與俄羅斯並列為戰略競爭對手，美國國會更先後通過准許美國軍艦停泊台灣的《國防授權法》及促進美台高官互訪的《台灣旅行法》，國務卿蒂勒森更直接批評中國是國際秩序的「修正主義勢力」、「新帝國主義」。

「改革開放」現在成了美方向中國施壓進行自由化的利器。但習近平強調堅持「改革開放」的「正確方向」，已彰顯中國與新自由主義經濟路線漸行漸遠，這也是導致美方對中國逐漸失去戰略耐心的主因。

據美國傳媒報道，在今次與美方的會面和談判中，劉鶴提出了連串擴大外資企業在華市場准入的舉措，包括允許外資進入保險等金融行業。但美方「胃口」更大，提出了包括取消國企補貼等更高的要求。就在劉鶴抵美當天，美方公布了《2018年貿易政策綱要暨2017年度報告》，報告中批評中國採取的「中央統制經濟模式」，政府角色很大，並在不斷加大；又指中國加入世貿組織（WTO）多年，至今並未採取市場經濟模式，反而遠離了這一模式。

美方的要求與指摘，突顯出華府對中國以市場與政府兩手發展經濟發展模式的誤解。在此背景下，劉鶴此次重申改革開放不會動搖的「滅火之旅」，與1999年朱鎔基訪美的「消氣之旅」一樣，恐怕都難奏效。