習近平新時代開啟 香港有機遇有壓力

<轉載自2018年3月6日 明報 社評>

人大政協會議（下稱「兩會」）召開，「習近平新時代」為中國政治添加變數，外界關注修憲取消國家主席任期限制，似乎尤甚於總理李克強的政府工作報告。今年政府工作報告未提「港人治港」、「高度自治」等字眼，亦未提及「港獨」，難免惹來揣測，然而綜觀報告內容，當前中央處理香港和台灣問題，思路都是政治歸政治、經濟歸經濟，希望透過擴大經濟文化交流合作，逐步拉近兩地民眾心理距離。「習近平新時代」以實現民族復興為目標，強調大局意識，中央一再表示支持香港融入國家發展大局，對本港既是機遇，惟亦難免會有壓力。

李克強政府工作報告 提及習近平次數增加

今次人大會議的亮點，本來是成立國家監察委員會，惟修憲取消國家主席任期限制的提案，卻完全轉移了外界焦點。雖然取消任期限制，理論上不等於終身制，然而習近平出任國家主席將會超過10年，已是呼之欲出。近日內地有黨媒以「人民領袖」一詞形容習近平，觀乎中共歷史，過去只有毛澤東和華國鋒曾被官方賦予「領袖」稱謂。今次修憲標誌中國進入習近平新時代，各方自然格外關注今次「兩會」有何啟示。

今年政府工作報告，提到去年內地經濟增長6.9％，勝過預期，不過有外媒更加關心報告提及「習近平」的次數。「習近平」在報告合共出現了13次，比去年8次有所增加，領導人名字出現次數之多廿年少見，突顯了習近平的強勢。誠如美國著名學者福山所言，修憲後中國何去何從，還需時間觀察。例如今次工作報告，「改革」二字出現了97次，比去年的83次多出超過一成半，反映中央改革決心有增無減，然而任期限制始終是有效約束領導人權力的機制，修憲後權力進一步集中在習近平和其團隊手中，中央一言一行，難免更易惹來外界捕風捉影，「中南海學」（Pekingology）勢將更為盛行，就算各種揣測和權力鬥爭陰謀論未必符合實情，惟已足以左右外界觀感，甚至惹來不安。

今次政府工作報告，繼2014年之後再度未提「港人治港」、「高度自治」，便惹來不少揣測，擔憂者指出，日前全國政協主席俞正聲發表工作報告，也少了「港人治港」、「高度自治」等慣例提法。李克強在報告提到，過去5年《憲法》和《基本法》權威在香港進一步彰顯，中央政治局常委趙樂際出席港澳政協委員會議，也表示絕不允許以高度自治為名，排斥中央全面管治權，然而這些說法也非新鮮事。去年十九大，習近平重申必須繼續貫徹一國兩制港人治港、高度自治方針，論分量較李克強的工作報告更強。今次報告未提，是否一定等於中央進一步收緊對港政策，似有商榷餘地。

李克強報告未提「港獨」，同樣不宜過度解讀。過去一年，「港獨」作為政治力量似見收斂，政府報告未再高調談及，不足為奇，可是「港獨」作為一股思潮，顯然仍在社會發酵，中央已劃下政治紅線，今次報告未提，不代表紅線消失了。若要捕捉微言大義，解讀工作報告未提「港人治港」又或「港獨」的含義，也許只能說中央認為政策已經定下了來，提與不提，都是從國家大局出發，並非為了安撫港人而決定說什麼。

香港融入國家發展大局 「新情况新問題」或增多

由十九大到今次政府工作報告，中央最關心的，似乎是如何令香港融入國家發展大局，為「習近平新時代」實現民族復興作出貢獻。李克強的報告便提到，深入推進內地與港澳交流合作，建設粵港澳大灣區更是重中之重。觀乎整份報告，中央處理香港和台灣的思路，實有相通之處。李克強一邊提到「絕不容忍台獨」，另一邊也強調兩岸民眾共創民族復興大業，擴大兩岸經濟文化交流合作，逐步為台灣民眾在大陸學習、就業、生活，提供與內地人同等待遇，與日前國台辦公布的「惠台31條」相呼應。

中央打擊「台獨」，除了加強向蔡英文政府施加壓力，也重視兩岸青年交流，為台灣青年提供更多發展出路。有關政策中短期不易重塑台灣人身分認同，惟至少可以軟化他們對大陸的印象。今年初台灣民調顯示，有37.5%受訪者願意去大陸工作，創4年新高，「既是中國人也是台灣人」身分認同也升見5年最高（34％），「認同是台灣人」的百分比雖仍超過五成（56％），惟竟出現下跌勢頭（下降5個百分點）。

對北京來說，推動經濟互利合作和交流，既是爭取改善港台民眾對內地觀感的手段，亦是為了促進國家發展和民族復興。中央處理與香港關係，相信也將加緊貫徹此思路，政治劃紅線、經濟促融合。中央強調「大局意識」，香港融入國家發展步伐勢將加快，以當前本港政治氛圍，能否一帆風順，存在不少疑問。趙樂際提到，香港與內地交流合作，遇到一些「新情况新問題」，雖然他未有闡述，惟其「藥方」卻相當清晰，就是要「加快融入國家發展大局，深化與內地互利合作」，說明中央方針不會動搖。「習近平新時代」為香港帶來重大發展機遇，然而政治波瀾也可能驟然而起，出現更多「新情况新問題」，社會各界要有心理準備。

HK in Xi new era: opportunities and pressure

THIS YEAR's sessions of the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference have begun. The "Xi Jinping new era" is to add new variables to Chinese politics. People seem to concern themselves much more with the constitutional amendment that would do away with the term restriction on the presidency than with Premier Li Keqiang's report on government work. This year's report on government work does not mention "Hong Kong people running Hong Kong" or "a high degree of autonomy". Nor does it mention gangdu (Hong Kong separatism). That has inevitably brought about conjectures.

Judging from what is said in such documents as the shijiuda (the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China) report and in the new report on government work, what the central authorities concern themselves with most seems to be how to make it possible for Hong Kong to integrate itself into the situation of the country's development and to do what may help bring about the nation's rejuvenation in the "Xi Jinping new era". Li Keqiang's report mentions efforts to promote thorough-going exchange and cooperation between the mainland and the Hong Kong and Macao SARs. The most important is the plan to build up the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Bay Area. Having perused the whole report, one may say the central authorities' idea for dealing with Hong Kong actually has something in common with that for dealing with Taiwan. Li said "taidu (Taiwan separatism) must in no way be tolerated", but he also stressed that people on one side of the Taiwan Strait should work together with those on the other side to achieve the great cause of national rejuvenation, that cross-strait economic and cultural exchange and cooperation should be expanded, and that the mainland would gradually provide Taiwan people going to school, working or living on the mainland with benefits for which mainland people are eligible. The last point echoes the "31 measures to benefit Taiwan" which the Taiwan Affairs Office announced the other day.

To fight taidu, the central authorities will, apart from trying harder to pressure the Tsai Ing-wen administration, attach importance to exchange between mainland and Taiwan youths and provide young Taiwan people with more "development avenues". Such a policy is unlikely to reshape in the short or medium term Taiwan people's self-identity, but it will at least soften the impression they have of the mainland. In a Taiwan survey carried out in the early days of this year, 37.5% of the respondents said they were willing to work on the mainland. That figure is a four-year high. The percentage of those who called themselves Taiwanese as well as Chinese is a five-year high (34%). The percentage of those who called themselves just Taiwanese still tops 50% (56%), However, surprisingly, it began to fall (it fell five percentage points).

It is not only to improve the impression Hong Kong and Taiwan people have of the mainland but also to promote the country's development and the nation's rejuvenation for Beijing to seek to foster mutually beneficial economic cooperation and exchange. Conceivably, the central authorities will, in dealing with mainland-Hong Kong relations, try harder to implement this idea. They will, politically, draw red lines and, economically, encourage integration. The central authorities place emphasis on the "overall situation awareness". The pace is bound to quicken at which Hong Kong is to integrate itself into the country's development. The political atmosphere in Hong Kong being as it is now, it is very doubtful that that will prove plain sailing. Politburo Standing Committee member Zhao Leji has said "new situations have arisen and new problems cropped up" in Hong Kong-mainland exchange and cooperation. Though he has not provided any detailed explanation, his "prescription" is quite clear — that it must "integrate itself more quickly into the overall situation of the country's development and deepen its mutually beneficial cooperation with the mainland". That shows the central authorities' general policy will not waver. The "Xi Jinping new era" will bring Hong Kong great opportunities of development, but political disturbances may suddenly arise, and one may see even more "new situations and new problems". For them society ought to brace itself.

習近平新時代開啟 香港有機遇有壓力

人大政協會議召開，「習近平新時代」為中國政治添加變數，外界關注修憲取消國家主席任期限制，似乎尤甚於總理李克強的政府工作報告。今年政府工作報告未提「港人治港」、「高度自治」等字眼，亦未提及「港獨」，難免惹來揣測。

由十九大到今次政府工作報告，中央最關心的，似乎是如何令香港融入國家發展大局，為「習近平新時代」實現民族復興作出貢獻。李克強的報告便提到，深入推進內地與港澳交流合作，建設粵港澳大灣區更是重中之重。觀乎整份報告，中央處理香港和台灣的思路，實有相通之處。李克強一邊提到「絕不容忍台獨」，另一邊也強調兩岸民眾共創民族復興大業，擴大兩岸經濟文化交流合作，逐步為台灣民眾在大陸學習、就業、生活，提供與內地人同等待遇，與日前國台辦公布的「惠台31條」相呼應。

中央打擊「台獨」，除了加強向蔡英文政府施加壓力，也重視兩岸青年交流，為台灣青年提供更多發展出路。有關政策中短期不易重塑台灣人身分認同，惟至少可以軟化他們對大陸的印象。今年初台灣民調顯示，有37.5%受訪者願意去大陸工作，創4年新高，「既是中國人也是台灣人」身分認同也升見5年最高（34％），「認同是台灣人」的百分比雖仍超過五成（56％），惟竟出現下跌勢頭（下降5個百分點）。

對北京來說，推動經濟互利合作和交流，既是爭取改善港台民眾對內地觀感的手段，亦是為了促進國家發展和民族復興。中央處理與香港關係，相信也將加緊貫徹此思路，政治劃紅線、經濟促融合。中央強調「大局意識」，香港融入國家發展步伐勢將加快，以當前本港政治氛圍，能否一帆風順，存在不少疑問。中央政治局常委趙樂際提到，香港與內地交流合作，遇到一些「新情况新問題」，雖然他未有闡述，惟其「藥方」卻相當清晰，就是要「加快融入國家發展大局，深化與內地互利合作」，說明中央方針不會動搖。「習近平新時代」為香港帶來重大發展機遇，然而政治波瀾也可能驟然而起，出現更多「新情况新問題」，社會各界要有心理準備。