<轉載自2018年3月23日 明報 社評>
美國聯儲局加息0.25厘，港美息差不斷擴闊，港元匯價持續轉弱，觸及7.85弱方兌換保證水平，已是早晚之事。過去兩年多，本港遲遲未跟隨美國加息，一大原因是熱錢氾濫，隨着港匯觸及弱方兌換保證水平，金管局將可啟動機制，買港元沽美元，散走部分熱錢，為本港利率正常化邁出重要一步，然而如意算盤能否打響，還要看資金流走規模和速度。當前內地和香港經濟勢頭良好，港元資產仍有吸引力，熱錢未必一下子大舉流走，可是中美貿易戰一旦全面開打，亦有可能令形勢頓時逆轉。未來半年本港樓市股市變數甚多，市場波動可能加劇，需要做好風險管理。
港美息差進一步擴闊 熱錢流走利樓市降溫
2015年底美國結束零利率時代，進入加息周期，迄今聯儲局已先後六度加息，累計加幅達到1.5厘，市場預料今年稍後聯儲局還會至少加息兩次。本港奉行聯繫匯率制度，港美息口走勢本應一致，然而熱錢太多卻扭曲了情况。2008年金融海嘯後，累計有近1萬億元熱錢流入香港，當中既有外國資金，亦有不少「北水」。目前本港銀行體系結餘高達1800億元，流動資金充裕，導致過去兩年本港一直未有跟隨美國加息。雖然本港樓價高企，主因是房屋供應嚴重不足，可是超低息環境長期持續，亦的確給樓市推波助瀾，刺激樓價愈飈愈高，遠超一般市民的負擔能力。
利率正常化有利本港樓市逐步降溫，然而首先必須解決熱錢氾濫問題。根據聯匯制度，金管局承諾在7.75港元兌1美元的水平買入美元，即「強方兌換保證」；當港匯跌至7.85港元兌1美元的水平，金管局則會沽美元買港元，亦即「弱方兌換保證」，透過大手買港元，推高港元拆息，令港匯回升。由於美國貨幣政策持續正常化，港美息差持續擴大，愈來愈多投資者從事套息活動，藉着沽港元買美元圖利，令近月港匯持續轉弱，昨天一度低見7.847，是1983年聯匯制度建立以來最低水平，跌見7.85的「弱方兌換保證」死線只是遲早問題。屆時金管局就會透過沽美元買港元，逐步冲銷本港銀行體系內的熱錢，推動利率正常化。
最近特區政府財金官員已多次放風，表示樂見部分游資流出，強調這是港元利率正常化的必然過程，政府早有準備。熱錢流走速度是緩是急、規模是大是小，變數甚多，走得太快太急，可能引發金融市場波動，打擊股市，財金官員有需要及早管理市場預期；不過熱錢流走規模速度，也可能不似預期，令利率正常化步伐無法顯著加快。
利率正常化變數仍多 中美貿易戰左右大局
有市場人士預測，港美息差進一步拉闊，以及金管局大手買入港元，可能觸發800億元資金流走，本港銀行最快下半年上調最優惠利率，然而本港銀行體系內的資金，可能比外界想像還要多，就算有數百億元熱錢流走，也未必足以改變目前熱錢氾濫的大局，本港銀行體系結餘可能要降到800億甚至600億元以下，港元銀行同業隔夜拆息才有機會從近乎零的水平顯著上升。目前1個月期的美元及港元拆息息差達到1.1厘，差距是2008年以來最大，可是仍未出現資金大舉外流情况，說明港美息差只是影響資金流向的因素之一；內地與香港經濟表現良好，內地與國際投資者看好港元資產回報，當然不會輕言離場。
內地因素對本港經濟形勢影響愈來愈大。兩三年前，不少國際投資者看淡中國經濟增長前景，「爆煲論」甚囂塵上，觸發「走資潮」，然而隨着中國經濟轉型漸見成果，去槓桿、去產能相對平穩順利，自去年初以來，國際投資者對中國經濟的信心已全面恢復，「經濟爆煲論」變得聲沉影寂。國際投資者看好內地以至本港經濟，資金流出香港純因套息活動，並非看淡前景，除非本港資產價格大跌，又或美國加息步伐加快，令套息活動更加有利可圖，否則熱錢流走規模和速度短期內或許有限。可是如果小投資者因此掉以輕心，過度低估熱錢流走的風險，也有可能焦頭爛額。
目前環球經濟勢頭甚佳，然而貿易戰陰霾悄然逼近。美國總統特朗普本港時間今天凌晨簽署備忘錄，對一系列中國貨物徵收關稅，涉及金額高達600億美元，中國政府已表明會採取必要措施，捍衛合法權益，預料中方有可能針對美國農業補貼，採取報復措施，限制美國大豆等農產品進口。倘若中美貿易戰全面爆發，有可能成為衝擊環球經濟的「黑天鵝」，本港難免池魚之殃，觸發資金外流，打擊股市樓市。特區財金官員和本地投資者有必要做好風險管理，以防萬一。
After a trade war, a black swan event might ensue
THE US Federal Reserve has raised the interest rate by 0.25%. As the
spread between the Hong Kong dollar and the US dollar keeps widening and the
Hong Kong dollar continues to weaken, it is only a matter of time before the
7.85 weak-side convertibility undertaking level is reached. Over the last
two-odd years, Hong Kong has kept putting off following in the US's footsteps
by raising rates. One of the main reasons has been the overflow of hot money.
However, if the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar reaches the weak-side
convertibility undertaking level ultimately, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority
will be able to activate the mechanism to buy Hong Kong dollars and sell US
dollars, thereby stamping out some hot money. It will be an important step
towards the normalisation of Hong Kong's interest rates. However, whether such
a neat calculation will work out as expected depends on the scale and speed of
the capital outflow. Given the fact that the upward momentum of the mainland
and Hong Kong economies remains strong and that assets denominated in Hong Kong
dollars remain attractive, a drastic capital flight might not happen. However,
if a full-blown trade war breaks out between China and the United States, the
situation might reverse instantly. In the next six months, there will be a lot
of uncertainties in Hong Kong's property market and stock market. Since the
market may become more volatile, Hong Kong needs to do a good job in risk
management.
Interest rate normalisation is advantageous to the gradual cooling down
of Hong Kong's property market, but the problem of the overflow of hot money
must first be tackled. As the normalisation of the US's monetary policy
continues, the spread between the Hong Kong dollar and the US dollar continues
to widen, and more and more investors engage in interest arbitrage. As they try
to profit from selling the Hong Kong dollar and buying the US dollar, the Hong
Kong dollar has continued to weaken in recent months.
Recently SAR officials responsible for financial and monetary matters
have repeatedly hinted that they will be glad to see the outflow of some hot
money, emphasising that it is an inevitable process in the normalisation of
Hong Kong interest rates and that the government is well-prepared. There are a
lot of uncertainties about the speed of the outflow of hot money and its scale.
If hot money leaves too quickly or too abruptly, it may result in financial
market fluctuations and deal a blow to the stock market. It is necessary for
these officials to manage market expectation as soon as possible. However, the
scale and speed of the outflow of hot money may deviate from what is
anticipated, and it is impossible to speed up the process of interest rate
normalisation dramatically.
International investors are optimistic about the mainland and Hong Kong
economies. The outflow of capital from Hong Kong is simply a result of interest
arbitrage activities; it does not stem from a bleak outlook for the two
economies. Unless interest arbitrage becomes even more profitable because of a
drastic drop in Hong Kong's asset prices or an acceleration in interest rate
increases in the US, the scale and speed of outflow of hot money may be limited
in the short run.
Presently the strong momentum of the global economy remains, but the
spectre of a trade war is quietly looming. US president Donald Trump signed a
memorandum early this morning imposing tariffs on imports from China that are
worth up to US$60 billion. The Chinese government has already declared that it
will adopt all necessary measures to defend its legitimate rights. China is
expected to adopt retaliatory measures targeting US agricultural subsidies and
place restrictions on the import of agricultural products (such as soybeans)
from the US. If a full-blown trade war between China and United States breaks
out, it could become a "black swan" event that hits the global
economy. Hong Kong will inevitably be embroiled, and an outflow of capital
could be triggered, dealing a blow to the stock market and the property market.
Officials responsible for financial and monetary matters and local investors
must do a proper job in risk management in case should such a scenario unfold.
熱錢流走規模難測 貿易戰可成黑天鵝
美國聯儲局加息0.25厘，港美息差不斷擴闊，港元匯價持續轉弱，觸及7.85弱方兌換保證水平，已是早晚之事。過去兩年多，本港遲遲未跟隨美國加息，一大原因是熱錢氾濫，隨着港匯觸及弱方兌換保證水平，金管局將可啟動機制，買港元沽美元，散走部分熱錢，為本港利率正常化邁出重要一步，然而如意算盤能否打響，還要看資金流走規模和速度。當前內地和香港經濟勢頭良好，港元資產仍有吸引力，熱錢未必一下子大舉流走，可是中美貿易戰一旦全面開打，亦有可能令形勢頓時逆轉。未來半年本港樓市股市變數甚多，市場波動可能加劇，需要做好風險管理。
利率正常化有利本港樓市逐步降溫，然而首先必須解決熱錢氾濫問題。由於美國貨幣政策持續正常化，港美息差持續擴大，愈來愈多投資者從事套息活動，藉着沽港元買美元圖利，令近月港匯持續轉弱。
最近特區政府財金官員已多次放風，表示樂見部分游資流出，強調這是港元利率正常化的必然過程，政府早有準備。熱錢流走速度是緩是急、規模是大是小，變數甚多，走得太快太急，可能引發金融市場波動，打擊股市，財金官員有需要及早管理市場預期；不過熱錢流走規模速度，也可能不似預期，令利率正常化步伐無法顯著加快。
國際投資者看好內地以至本港經濟，資金流出香港純因套息活動，並非看淡前景，除非本港資產價格大跌，又或美國加息步伐加快，令套息活動更加有利可圖，否則熱錢流走規模和速度短期內或許有限。
目前環球經濟勢頭甚佳，然而貿易戰陰霾悄然逼近。美國總統特朗普本港時間今天凌晨簽署備忘錄，對一系列中國貨物徵收關稅，涉及金額高達600億美元，中國政府已表明會採取必要措施，捍衛合法權益，預料中方有可能針對美國農業補貼，採取報復措施，限制美國大豆等農產品進口。倘若中美貿易戰全面爆發，有可能成為衝擊環球經濟的「黑天鵝」，本港難免池魚之殃，觸發資金外流，打擊股市樓市。特區財金官員和本地投資者有必要做好風險管理，以防萬一。
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