內地經濟放緩 危中有機須堅持改革轉型

<轉載自2012年7月10日 明報 社評>

 

國家統計局昨日公布的消費者物價指數（CPI）和工業生產者出廠價格（PPI），都較預期惡劣，反映內地經濟增長持續放緩，在歐洲仍受債務困擾、美國復蘇緩慢、外部需求疲弱之際，內地不可能獨善其身。目前全球經濟前景雖然不明朗，以內地當局對經濟宏觀調控的經驗與能力，相信硬着陸的可能不大；而2008年金融海嘯之後，內地刺激內需的經濟結構轉型，初見成效，若內地把現在的經濟危局視作契機，堅持改革和調整經濟結構，則當全球經濟走出谷底、重上增長之路時，中國經濟就有望踏上新台階。

 

內地通脹率大幅回落 當局改向穩增長調控

國家統計局公布，6月份CPI同比上漲2.2％，漲幅比上月大幅回落0.8個百分點，是兩年半以來新低；另外，作為CPI上游的PPI，同比下降2.1％，環比下降0.7％，是今年3月以來，連續4個月負增長。內地不少專家預期短期內CPI持續趨低，下月或會回落至2%以下，有人擔心中國會否步日本經濟泡沫爆破的後塵，走入通縮夢魘。

不過，較多專家認為央行一個月內已經兩次減息，工資仍在上升軌道，加上樓市泡沫壓而不破，因此，內地經濟硬着陸的可能不大；反而有專家認為，基於CPI回落幅度加快，通脹壓力消退，當局在貨幣政策有更大迴旋空間，宏觀調控目標可由壓通脹、保民生，改向「穩增長」調控。

2008年金融海嘯之後，出口急速縮減，內地經濟大幅下滑，當局曾經一擲4萬億元人民幣搶救經濟，雖然穩住了局面，但是過度信貸、呆壞帳大增、形成樓市泡沫和通脹猛升等後遺症，至今仍未消除；據知，面對今次經濟滑坡，中央已經排除再次向市場「放水」，只會把資源用到實處，例如，日前總理溫家寶到江蘇調研時，就表示「決不讓房價反彈」，打消民衆對減息使樓價上升的預期，以免調控樓市成效功虧一簣，溫家寶表示，未來幾個月會增加公共投資，繼續穩步推進保障性安居工程建設，特別要注意保障性住房建設的可持續性。

溫家寶所言，若是反映中央對「4萬億元狂飈」的經驗總結，值得高興，因為按內地過往做法，面對經濟下行風險，而央行有操作貨幣政策的空間，則多會放鬆政策，刺激投資，從而拉動經濟。不過，若靠催谷「投資」這頭馬車來拉動經濟，最終仍然只是走一條不可持續的老路，證諸過往經驗和所汲取教訓，必須堅持結構轉型，增加內需消費在生產總值（GDP）所佔比例，經濟才可以持續發展。

強化消費馬車帶動經濟 趁機推行能源價格改革

中國經濟以「三頭馬車」，即是出口、投資、消費帶動，不過，一直偏重出口和投資，消費在GDP所佔比例長期偏低。2008年金融海嘯之後，歐美經濟環境丕變，需求劇減，內地出口受重創，中國經濟急速下滑，要拋出4萬億元搶救。經此一役，中央狠下決心調整經濟結構，刺激內需，經過3年多來努力，內地在調整經濟結構方面，已經取得一些成果。

例如，今年首季經濟三頭馬車同時放緩，不過，消費成為GDP的主力，首季GDP為8.1%，消費貢獻了6.2個百分點，較去年首季9.2%的GDP中貢獻4.8個百分點，高出很多，此乃過去10年，消費對GDP所作的最大貢獻。這些變化，雖然是時勢逼出來的結果，卻也說明只要肯去推動，有適當政策，則中國經濟三頭馬車定位的調整，以及經濟結構轉型，並非什麼不可踰越的鴻溝。

若沒有3年多前刺激內需的舉措，則今時今日，內地在出口低迷、投資不振之際，從數據上中國經濟將更惡劣，現在雖然還未能說消費主導將成為中國經濟發展的模式，但是已取得的成果說明，內地應該抓緊契機，強化消費這一頭馬車的作用和功能，使中國經濟減少對外的倚賴和影響，創造一個可持續發展的經濟模式。

除了經濟結構轉型，還要堅持銀行體制、利率自由化等改革，鼓勵私人投資，加大結構性減稅力度等，創造更多需求、更多自主投資，以帶動整體經濟發展。另外，商品價格回落，也是調整煤價、電價、石油產品價格長期偏離市場的契機。1998年金融風暴之後，當時的總理朱鎔基加快改造國有企業，雖然一度有大批下崗工人不滿，但是事態挺過來之後，換來國企鬆綁，10多年來中國經濟騰飛發展，與此有一定關係。經濟有危有機，現在是有智慧、有魄力、有膽識的領導人，展現領導能力、延續中國經濟奇蹟的時候。
Editorial

China's Economic Restructuring Must Continue

 

THE National Bureau of Statistics said that, in June, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.2 percent year-on-year, down by as much as 0.8 percent compared to May, marking a new low in two and a half years. At the same time, the Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped 2.1 percent year-on-year, down by 0.7 per cent compared to May, marking the fourth straight month of producer price deflation since March. Many mainland economists expect that in the near future the CPI will continue to go down, and may fall below 2 percent next month. Some are worried that China may follow in Japan's footsteps and slip into a deflationary spiral after the burst of a bubble economy.

 

However, there are more who believe that a hard landing for China's economy is unlikely since the People's Bank of China has cut interest rates twice within a month, and wages are still rising. At the same time, the property bubble has not burst despite repressive measures. Indeed, there are those who think that, with the CPI falling faster than expectations, inflationary pressures are eased, which allows the central government more leeway to adjust its monetary policy. The emphasis of the country's macroeconomic management may switch from curbing inflation and protecting people's livelihood to stabilising growth.

Following the financial tsunami in 2008, China's exports fell sharply, and the economy experienced a major downturn. As an emergency measure to save the economy, the central government spent no less than four trillion yuan. The economy was successfully propped up, but the side effects are still felt today, including over-borrowing, a huge increase in bad debts, the formation of a housing bubble, and soaring inflation.

A few days ago, during an inspection tour in Jiangsu, Premier Wen Jiabao, trying to cool public expectations of rising property prices as a result of interest rate cuts, declared that "housing prices must not be allowed to rebound" lest the campaign to control the property market should fail at the last hurdle. He said the government will increase public investment in the next several months, and press on steadily with its public-housing programme to ensure that the construction of such housing units is sustainable.

The central government is to be congratulated if Wen's message shows what has been learned from the "four trillion yuan" experience. In the past, when faced with the dangers of an economic slowdown, the mainland authorities would loosen its monetary policy to encourage investment and stimulate the economy. But if past experience is anything to go by, China's economic growth cannot be sustained unless a structural change is effected to raise the ratio of domestic consumption to China's GDP.

Exports, investment and consumption are the three drivers of China's economic growth. However, exports and investment have always been given an undue emphasis, while the consumption-GDP ratio has long remained unhealthily low. The 2008 financial tsunami brought about a dramatic change in the economic conditions of Europe as well as America. Hard hit by an abrupt plunge in Western consumer demand, China's economy suffered a serious downturn, and had to be sustained by a four trillion yuan expenditure plan. Chastened by this experience, the central government started decisively to restructure the economy by encouraging domestic consumption. Three years' work in this direction has borne fruit to a certain extent. The mainland authorities must not relax their efforts in this respect, but should continue to boost the role of consumption as a driver of economic growth, so that China's economy may be less dependent on foreign countries and therefore less vulnerable to outside influences. This will help create a sustainable mode of economic growth and maintain China's economic miracle.

明報社評 2012.07.10﹕內地經濟放緩 危中有機須堅持改革轉型

國家統計局公布，6月份CPI同比上漲2.2％，漲幅比上月大幅回落0.8個百分點，是兩年半以來新低；另外， PPI同比下降2.1％，環比下降0.7％，是今年3月以來，連續4個月負增長。內地不少專家預期短期內CPI持續趨低，下月或會回落至2%以下，有人擔心中國會否步日本經濟泡沫爆破的後塵，走入通縮夢魘。

不過，較多專家認為央行一個月內已經兩次減息，工資仍在上升軌道，加上樓市泡沫壓而不破，因此，內地經濟硬着陸的可能不大；反而有專家認為，基於CPI回落幅度加快，通脹壓力消退，當局在貨幣政策有更大迴旋空間，宏觀調控目標可由壓通脹、保民生，改向「穩增長」調控。

2008年金融海嘯之後，出口急速縮減，內地經濟大幅下滑，當局曾經一擲4萬億元人民幣搶救經濟，雖然穩住了局面，但是過度信貸、呆壞帳大增、形成樓市泡沫和通脹猛升等後遺症，至今仍未消除。

日前總理溫家寶到江蘇調研時，就表示「決不讓房價反彈」，打消民衆對減息使樓價上升的預期，以免調控樓市成效功虧一簣，溫家寶表示，未來幾個月會增加公共投資，繼續穩步推進保障性安居工程建設，特別要注意保障性住房建設的可持續性。

溫家寶所言，若是反映中央對「4萬億元狂飈」的經驗總結，值得高興，因為按內地過往做法，面對經濟下行風險，則多會放鬆政策，刺激投資，從而拉動經濟。不過，證諸過往經驗和所汲取教訓，必須堅持結構轉型，增加內需消費在生產總值（GDP）所佔比例，經濟才可以持續發展。

中國經濟以「三頭馬車」，即是出口、投資、消費帶動，不過，一直偏重出口和投資，消費在GDP所佔比例長期偏低。2008年金融海嘯之後，歐美經濟環境丕變，需求劇減，內地出口受重創，中國經濟急速下滑，要拋出4萬億元搶救。經此一役，中央狠下決心調整經濟結構，刺激內需，經過3年多來努力，已經取得一些成果。內地應該抓緊契機，強化消費這一頭馬車的作用和功能，使中國經濟減少對外的倚賴和影響，創造一個可持續發展的經濟模式，延續中國經濟奇蹟。