放寬按保有風險 政府行事須慎重

<轉載自2018年1月11日 明報 社評>

財政司長陳茂波一句「可以探討和配合」，令到「放寬按揭保險成數」之說甚囂塵上。本港樓價高企，一些年輕人即使月入甚高，也因為未能應付首期而無法「上車」。政府希望協助他們實現置業夢，本非壞事，然而放寬按保始終有一定風險，有可能刺激樓價「步步高升」，甚至抵消放寬按保的效果；一旦市况逆轉，樓價下跌一成，「首置」年輕人更可能淪為負資產人士。放寬按保可以是妙着，亦可以是敗筆，政府必須從長計議，審慎行事，不能操之過急。

放寬按保須對症下藥 貿然出手恐刺激樓價

樓市升了14年，樓價水平已遠超一般市民負擔能力，年輕人努力打拼，也未必有方法儲夠錢付首期，衍生不少荒誕現象，買樓「靠父幹」成為常態，發展商也紛紛提供按揭優惠，伙拍財務公司提供高成數按揭，協助買家入市。可是並非每位父母都有本事幫子女應付首期，發展商和財務公司的按揭「優惠」，也往往除笨有精，累計利息開支可能比一般銀行按揭高出3倍以上，加重供樓者負擔。行政長官林鄭月娥強調，現屆政府房屋政策以置業為主導，目的是重燃不同收入人士置業希望，其中一個必須處理的難題，就是協助「首置」年輕人應付首期。

早在去年10月，林太已首次提到，考慮透過按揭證券公司，幫助收入穩定的市民處理買樓首期；及至近日陳茂波出席立法會會議，談及協助年輕人減輕首期負擔「上車」，更明確表示由按證公司協助置業人士降低首期負擔，「完全可以探討和配合」，政府一直有關注和研究相關問題，「正等待適當時機」。言論一出，市場人士無不認定放寬按保「事在必行」，無論是地產代理還是發展商的討論焦點，已不是應否放寬又或何時適切，而是放寬多少。

根據現時的按保計劃，400萬元或以下單位才能承做九成按揭，400萬以上至600萬元可借八成。有業界人士主張放寬按保上限，樓價500萬元以下亦可申請九成按保，意味首期將由100萬減至50萬元；有發展商高層甚至認為，可以將上限調高至600萬元。對於地產代理和發展商來說，放寬按保意味更多生意，當然「多多益善」，發展商也毋須花心思搞按揭優惠計劃，不用長期揹起客戶貸款，可是放寬按保有可能牽一髮動全身，未經深思熟慮貿然出手，有可能加劇樓市亂象。

市場觀感不易控制 必須做好風險管理

無可否認，400萬元以下的單位，在目前本港物業市場已幾近「絕迹」。世上沒有不能改動的政策，需要因事制宜，然而亦必須看準時機，對症下藥，嚴防風險。放寬按保措施，必須與增加樓宇供應相配合，始能避免給樓市火上加油。

近年樓價飈升，有論者認為原因之一是政府推出「辣招」，打擊了業主放售意欲，導致二手供應銳減。支持放寬按保者聲稱，調高按保上限，可令「上車」人士有更多選擇，帶旺二手樓宇交投，從而遏抑「蚊型樓」價格。不過放寬按保必然刺激更多人入市，市場需求增加，樓價無可避免有上升壓力。究竟放寬按保對樓價有何影響，現在難以斷言，倘若樓價因此進一步飈升，500萬元以下單位也變得愈來愈少，難道又要再考慮調高上限，協助首置者入市？

過去財金官員對放寬按保甚有保留，金管局總裁陳德霖曾表示，無意放寬按揭限制。林太提出透過按證公司協助市民處理首期後，陳茂波還一度表示「絕不考慮」調整按揭政策，後來林太強調不能政出多門，官方口徑才趨於統一。放寬按保問題之一，是有可能向市場釋出錯誤信息，令人以為政府遏抑樓價的決心有所動搖。陳茂波在立法會談到放寬按揭，強調不希望市場誤解為「減辣」，不過市場觀感和反應並不容易控制。政府放寬按保，必須對準目標，即「有能力供樓惟付不出首期的人」，否則的確很容易被理解為「減辣」，令樓市更趨熾熱。

放寬九成按揭規限，雖然有助市民上車，惟亦意味只要樓價下跌一成，業主已可能淪為負資產人士。本港的按揭供款與入息比率，近年持續上升，去年升見68％，雖然仍遠低於1997年高峰的103%，可是美國加息大勢所趨，一旦按揭息率上升，將加重供樓人士負擔。設若政府真的放寬按保，必須做好風險管控，壓力測試必須嚴謹，確保只有收入穩定充裕的準買家才能借足九成，以免投機者和財力不足者利用相關安排冒險入市。

Threshold of mortgage insurance

FINANCIAL SECRETARY PAUL CHAN's remark that "it can be explored and supported" has fueled rumours about the government planning to lower the threshold of mortgage insurance. Sky-high housing prices in Hong Kong make it difficult for some young people whose monthly incomes are high to "climb on the bandwagon" because they cannot afford the down payments. It is not a bad thing for the government to want to help young people to become homeowners, but relaxing mortgage restrictions involves risks and may trigger property-price surges and even offset the effect of relaxing the restrictions. Should there be a 10% downturn in property prices, young first-time home buyers may become negative-equity owners. Relaxing mortgage restrictions may be a healthy dose, but it may also be a self-defeating move. The government must give the matter ample thought. It must act with prudence and not with undue haste.

Property prices have kept rising over the past fourteen years. They are now way above what ordinary people can afford. Chief Executive Carrie Lam has said that the main orientation of this administration's housing policy is home ownership, and its objective is "to rekindle the hopes of families in different income brackets of buying their own homes". One of the difficulties that must be tackled is how to help young first-time home buyers to make their down payments.

Last October Mrs Lam mentioned for the first time that she was considering helping people having steady incomes to cope with down payments through the Hong Kong Mortgage Corporation Limited (HKMC). A few days ago, Paul Chan said clearly at a Legislative Council meeting that the idea of the HKMC helping to alleviate the down payment burdens on home buyers "could definitely be explored and supported". He said it was something the government had always concerned itself with and kept looking at and the government was "waiting for an opportune moment".

There is no policy that should never be amended. However, the timing must be right. The steps to be taken should do the trick, and risks must be strictly avoided. Any measure to relax mortgage restrictions should only be implemented hand in hand with measures designed to increase housing supply. Only then can the government avoid adding fuel to the flames in the property market.

Financial and monetary officials had grave reservations about relaxing mortgage restrictions. Hong Kong Monetary Authority chief Norman Chan once said that the authority had no intention of relaxing mortgage restrictions. Even after Mrs Lam had put forward the idea of the HKMC helping citizens to cope with down payments, Paul Chan did say the government "would definitely not consider" readjusting its mortgage policy. Only after Mrs Lam had emphasised that government policies must not come out from different bureaus did officials begin to talk about the matter along the same lines. When Paul Chan mentioned relaxing mortgage restrictions in the legislative chamber, he emphasised he hoped market participants would not take it for a scaling down of the government's tough measures. However, it is not easy to steer market participants' perceptions or reactions. If the government plans to relax mortgage restrictions, it must aim right at its target (people who can afford monthly mortgage payments but not down payments). Otherwise, such a move will most probably be seen as one taken to scale down the government's tough measures". That may make the property market even more heated.

The debt servicing ratio (DSR) has in recent years continued to grow in Hong Kong. Last year it reached 68%, although it was far below the 1997 peak (103%). There is a general trend towards higher interest rates in the US. If mortgage rates rise, the burdens on mortgagors will become heavier. If the government is really going to relax the mortgage insurance scheme, it must do its best in managing risks. Stringent stress tests must be conducted to ensure that only would-be buyers having steady and adequate incomes may take out 90% mortgages lest speculators and people with insufficient means should take advantage of such an arrangement to get into the market.

放寬按保有風險 政府行事須慎重

財政司長陳茂波一句「可以探討和配合」，令到「放寬按揭保險成數」之說甚囂塵上。本港樓價高企，一些年輕人即使月入甚高，也因為未能應付首期而無法「上車」。政府希望協助他們實現置業夢，本非壞事，然而放寬按保始終有一定風險，有可能刺激樓價「步步高升」，甚至抵消放寬按保的效果；一旦市場逆轉，樓價下跌一成，「首置」年輕人更可能淪為負資產人士。放寬按保可以是妙藥，亦可以是敗筆，政府必須從長計議，審慎行事，不能操之過急。

樓市升了14年，樓價水平已遠超一般市民負擔能力。行政長官林鄭月娥強調，現屆政府房屋政策以置業為主導，目的是重燃不同收入人士置業希望，其中一個必須處理的難題，就是協助「首置」年輕人應付首期。

早在去年10月，林太已首次提到，考慮透過按揭證券公司，幫助收入穩定的市民處理買樓首期；及至近日陳茂波出席立法會會議，更明確表示由按證公司協助置業人士降低首期負擔，「完全可以探討和配合」，政府一直有關注和研究相關問題，「正等待適當時機」。

世上沒有不能改動的政策，然而亦必須看準時機，對症下藥，嚴防風險。放寬按保措施，必須與增加樓宇供應相配合，始能避免給樓市火上加油。

過去財金官員對放寬按保甚有保留，金管局總裁陳德霖曾表示，無意放寬按揭限制。林太提出透過按證公司協助市民處理首期後，陳茂波還一度表示「絕不考慮」調整按揭政策，後來林太強調不能政出多門，官方口徑才趨於統一。陳茂波在立法會談到放寬按揭，強調不希望市場誤解為「減辣」，不過市場觀感和反應並不容易控制。政府放寬按保，必須對準目標，即「有能力供樓惟付不出首期的人」，否則的確很容易被理解為「減辣」，令樓市更趨熾熱。

本港的按揭供款與入息比率，近年持續上升，去年升見68％，雖然仍遠低於1997年高峰的103%，可是美國加息大勢所趨，一旦按揭息率上升，將加重供樓人士負擔。設若政府真的放寬按保，必須做好風險管控，壓力測試必須嚴謹，確保只有收入穩定充裕的準買家才能借足九成，以免投機者和財力不足者利用相關安排冒險入市。