樓市成交大減釋出空間 政府把握機會理順供求

<轉載自2013年4月9日 明報 社評>

 

政府連番採取措施治理樓市之後，近期成交顯著減少，樓價也見輕微回落，不過，若說樓市轉角調整，言之尚早；而樓市不再亢奮，最大可能是樓價不再不合理地飈升而已，也就是說樓市情勢有望暫停惡化。對於政府而言，樓市由炒家主導改變為用家主導，這是健康的發展，也給政府提供了空間，讓政府採取適當政策措施，增加供應，理順供求失衡，為樓市打造一個健康穩定的環境。

 

房屋協會首個置安心項目綠悠雅苑，昨日揀樓，首日安排160名申請人選購了97個單位，「成功率」正常，顯示樓市雖然出現輕微調整，但是未影響渴求置業市民的安居之夢，相信綠悠雅苑售價按市價七折定價，是準業主在市場現况下仍然選擇置業的主要原因。

樓價輕微下調 是否轉角市待觀察

去年10月，政府推出買家印花稅（BSD）和額外印花稅（SSD）之後，樓市一度沉靜下來，但是未幾市場再度熱熾，處於亢奮狀態；今年2月，政府再出招，以雙倍印花稅、加重BSD和SSD力度，使境外人士來港炒樓，若半年內轉手，稅率高達43.5%；同時金管局要求銀行收緊按揭成數，增加炒家的交易成本。政府與金管局多管齊下，從管理需求着手，遏制需求，特別針對短期炒賣行為，另外，銀行按揭息口有上調之勢；綜合諸般因素，近期二手樓和一手樓成交都大減，說明政府和相關措施收到一定效果。

近期樓市淡靜，樓價開始有偏軟迹象，例如有發展商變相減價推新盤，或向準買家提供二按等手法，吸引買家；二手市場方面，雖然一些龍頭屋苑（例如太古城），業主叫價企硬，但是一些二線屋苑，業主不但擴大議價空間，也出現低於市價的成交個案，例如匯景花園一個單位，在剛過去的周末，以低市場5%易手。可以說，隨着成交減少，發展商和業主都面對現實，促成樓價向下調整。不過，從數據看來，樓價下調幅度輕微，反映樓價走勢的中原城市指數，上周五最新報123.01點，按周跌0.35%，為17周以來最大按周跌幅，連續兩周累跌0.53%。不過，指數123.01點，反映樓價仍然處於高位。

事實上，本港整體樓價較2008年金融海嘯後的低位，上升了約120%，這幾年來，樓價平均每月以2%的速度上升，今年2月，國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的報告指出，香港的樓價與市民收入比率全球最高，達12.6倍，大幅超越全球其他城市，位居第2的澳洲為6.7倍，IMF認為，若本港利率回升至2003至2007年的正常水平，香港樓價較按經濟基本因素計算的「合理水平」高30%。IMF的研究是根據去年本港第2季的經濟數據，過去半年本港樓價又上升了不少，所以，樓價實際上進一步偏離合理水平。

至於樓市另一個指標的市民供樓負擔比率，去年第4季上升至52%，利率上升3個百分點，比率將飈升至68%，即是市民每掙到1000元，其中680元要用作供樓。所以，按IMF研究報告和市民負擔，本港樓價與經濟基本面脫節，必然會調整；不過，近期樓價出現的下調，是否整體樓市周期性調整的開始，根據本港內在和外圍因素，暫時看不到這種趨勢。

樓市基本因素未變 政府要部署增加供應

本港樓市過去幾年不合理飈升，主要基於3種情况：（1）供應嚴重短缺，曾蔭權政府治下7年，荒廢土地開發，使住宅單位供應處於嚴重不足；（2）低息環境，美國推出幾輪量化寬鬆貨幣政策，以印銀紙方式挽救經濟，因為聯繫匯率關係，本港樓市雖然熾熱，但是要跟隨美國實施低利率，未能以利率政策的工具遏制樓市；（3）全球游資充裕，特別內地資金來港尋求高回報，樓市成為這類熱錢追逐的市場，使本港樓價如脫韁野馬般上升。

檢視這些促使本港樓價上升的因素，目前看不到有根本轉變。梁振英任特首9個多月以來，雖然竭力增加供應，但是不要說缺乏土地，即使有現成土地，由規劃、建造到推出市場起碼要3至4年，正所謂遠水不能救近火，這是政府推出多次措施，都未能遏止樓價上升的原因，而市民對住屋的需求沒有改變，所以，需求殷切而供應不足，樓市仍有強勁支持。另外，美國經濟復蘇似有若無，今年內能否加息是一大懸念；至於游資熱錢，除了美國和歐洲，近期日本也加大印銀紙力度，以「巨量」貨幣催谷通脹至2%，全球游資熱錢將更為氾濫。熱錢都追求短期高回報，本港樓市在這種情况下能否持續冷下去，就外圍環境而言，尚待觀察。所以，若說本港樓市已經處於轉角市的轉折點，以目前已知和掌握的情况，這個結論或許下得早了一點。

當前的樓市較為淡靜，對有意置業者是難得的冷靜期，可以三思才決定行止；對政府而言，則得到喘息機會，不致陷於內外交困景况，政府應該利用這個機會，全力推動增加供應的部署和安排，開拓土地，按實際需要做好規劃，為香港樓市健康穩定發展創造有利的條件。

Editorial

A Good Opportunity to Rein in the Property Market

YESTERDAY was the first day prospective home buyers were invited to choose their flats at Greenview Villa, the first "My Home Purchase Plan" project operated by the Housing Society. Altogether 160 applicants were invited, and 97 flats were sold. This is the normal rate of successful sales, and shows that although there has been a slight correction in the property market, many citizens would still like to buy their own homes. The Greenview Villa flats are sold at a 30 percent discount to the market value, which probably is the chief reason why the applicants are not deterred by the present market conditions.

In October last year, the government introduced the Buyer's Stamp Duty and the Special Stamp Duty. In February this year, it took action again, doubling the Stamp Duty and increasing the Buyer's Stamp Duty and Special Stamp duty, so that non-local property speculators who buy and sell a property within six months will have to pay a tax at a rate as high as 43.5 percent. At the same time, the Monetary Authority told banks to reduce the mortgage ratio so as to increase the transaction costs for speculators. And with a general increase in mortgage interest rates seemingly imminent, there has recently been a huge decline in the transaction volume of first and second-hand properties.

But while the property market is relatively quiet, there has been only a slight correction in property prices. In fact, since the economic tsunami in 2008, when property prices slumped, properties in Hong Kong have appreciated by about 120 percent. In other words, there has been a 2 percent increase every month in the past few years. In February this year, a report published by the International Monetary Fund pointed out that, if interest rates in Hong Kong returned to the 2003-07 average, our property prices were 30 percent higher than was consistent with our economic fundamentals. It should be noted that the IMF study was based on the economic data for the second quarter of 2012, and property prices in Hong Kong have again risen considerably in the past six months.

This unreasonable spike in property prices can be ascribed to three factors. (1) A serious shortage of supply: During Donald Tsang Yam-kuen's seven years of government, nothing much was done with respect to land development, resulting in a serious shortage of supply in housing. (2) A low interest rate environment: The United States has launched several rounds of quantitative easing, and despite its red-hot housing market Hong Kong has to follow suit and adopt ultra-low interest rates because of its pegged exchange rate system. Consequently, interest rates cannot be used as a tool to dampen the housing market. (3) An enormous amount of international floating capital: The influx of floating capital, especially from mainland China, has driven Hong Kong's housing prices to outrageous levels.

These are the factors behind the spike in Hong Kong's property prices, and they have remained basically unchanged. Since his assumption of office, Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying has tried hard to increase housing supply, but has been hamstrung by the shortage of land. And even if land is available, there is planning and construction work to be done. It will take at least three to four years before new housing can be developed. This is why housing prices have continued to rise despite the several rounds of market-cooling measures introduced by the government. Water afar off quenches not fire, as people say.

The housing market is at present relatively quiet. The government should grasp this opportunity and make what arrangements it can for an increase in housing supply. Land should be reclaimed for housing, with good planning geared to actual needs. Only then will Hong Kong's property market develop steadily and healthily.

明報社評 2013.04.09﹕樓市成交大減釋出空間 政府把握機會理順供求

房屋協會首個置安心項目綠悠雅苑，昨日揀樓，首日安排160名申請人選購了97個單位，「成功率」正常，顯示樓市雖然出現輕微調整，但是未影響渴求置業市民的安居之夢，相信綠悠雅苑售價按市價七折定價，是準業主在市場現况下仍然選擇置業的主要原因。

去年10月，政府推出買家印花稅（BSD）和額外印花稅（SSD）；今年2月，政府再出招，以雙倍印花稅、加重BSD和SSD力度，使境外人士來港炒樓，若半年內轉手，稅率高達43.5%；同時金管局要求銀行收緊按揭成數，增加炒家的交易成本。另外，銀行按揭息口有上調之勢；綜合諸般因素，近期二手樓和一手樓成交都大減。

近期樓市淡靜，不過，樓價下調幅度輕微。事實上，本港整體樓價較2008年金融海嘯後的低位，上升了約120%，這幾年來，樓價平均每月以2%的速度上升，今年2月，國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）的報告指出，若本港利率回升至2003至2007年的正常水平，香港樓價較按經濟基本因素計算的「合理水平」高30%。IMF的研究是根據去年本港第2季的經濟數據，過去半年本港樓價又上升了不少。

本港樓市過去幾年不合理飈升，主要基於3種情况：（1）供應嚴重短缺，曾蔭權政府治下7年，荒廢土地開發，使住宅單位供應處於嚴重不足；（2）低息環境，美國推出幾輪量化寬鬆貨幣政策，因為聯繫匯率關係，本港樓市雖然熾熱，但是要跟隨美國實施低利率，未能以利率政策的工具遏制樓市；（3）全球游資充裕，特別內地資金來港尋求高回報，使本港樓價如脫韁野馬般上升。

檢視這些促使本港樓價上升的因素，目前看不到有根本轉變。梁振英任特首9個多月以來，雖然竭力增加供應，但是不要說缺乏土地，即使有現成土地，由規劃、建造到推出市場起碼要3至4年，正所謂遠水不能救近火，這是政府推出多次措施，都未能遏止樓價上升的原因。

當前的樓市較為淡靜，政府應該利用這個機會，全力推動增加供應的部署和安排，開拓土地，按實際需要做好規劃，為香港樓市健康穩定發展創造有利的條件。