<轉載自2014年8月11日 明報 社評>
差餉物業估價署的最新數據顯示，今年6月份，私樓樓價再度破頂，而且更是連升3個月，豪宅及小型單位都錄得逾1%的升幅。若以近期成為城中地產行業熱話的小型單位、即實用面積430平方呎以下的單位而言，這類單位今年1月指數為263.9（以1999年指數100為基準），6月份為270.5，升幅2.5%。由於小型單位銀碼不大，借貸較為容易，頗受歡迎，於上車一族及投資客俱是如此。個別地產發展商窺準這一方向，入紙申請更改圖則，大型單位一分為二甚至一分為三，這股小型或袖珍樓宇單位熱潮方興未艾。
供應不足出現瓶頸 上車族轉向小單位
從用家角度來說，當五六百呎的傳統家庭式單位，動輒銀碼都在五六百萬元甚至更多，對出來社會工作不久，或準備結婚的年輕男女是極為沉重的負擔。以500萬元的樓價為例，光是首期便要三成約150萬元，以今天工薪族的收入水平，樓價按港人家庭年收入中位數計算水平達13.5倍，這一巨大差距，令得「上車一族」要麼望樓興嘆，要麼便要退而求其次「以價就樓」，轉向入場門檻較低的小型單位入手——先走上小單位的第一台階，日後藉著換樓，改善居住空間。
上車一族走到這一步是非不得已，因為私樓單位的供應，到這刻仍是距離目標甚遠，儘管上月底運輸及房屋局的數字顯示，未來3至4年的私樓供應量約為7.3萬個單位，更追平2004年3月有紀錄以來的新高數字，不過這些都是未來落成的樓宇，遠水難救近火，香港每年有約5萬對新婚夫婦，新居需求始終強勁，可是供應長時期無法跟上，瓶頸難以解決。另一方面，儘管「辣招」對樓價曾經一度起到遏抑作用，但需求長年不減之下，息率長期又處於低水平，壓下來的樓價不久即反彈，並且愈彈愈高，過去可以買中型單位的價格，隨著樓價上升，只能購買小型單位。
類似的情況不僅香港獨有，人口密集的大城巿如東京及紐約，都有類似由於地小人多而出現的小型單位。當然，這並非應該堂而皇之允許出現的情況，應該說，一個在各方面都合乎居住要求的真正城巿，人均居住面積不可能侷促在丁方之間；出現這一情狀，這個城巿說不上是宜居宜住之地，而只是像商務旅館的度宿一宵的逆旅之地。然而，事實是香港今天就是如此，缺地建屋，即便有地，但發展商的入門門檻不低，像觀塘巿中心重建那樣流標的不在少數，雖然第二次招標，觀塘項目入場門檻大幅修改，取消令中小型發展商望而卻步的80億元入場費，可是建屋時間已白白流逝，令人扼腕。
外圍因素影響走勢 本地經濟樓市堪憂
在解決居住方面，類似的小型單位，的確在某一特定時空受到歡迎，因為銀碼小，普羅大眾較能負擔得起，相信未來一段時間，這種單位仍有巿場；而且由於單位供應一時間跟不上，炒賣空間不小。至於會否成為另一個泡沫，此刻來說言之尚早，不過，以香港如今的低息環境，游資充裕，「細細粒，容易食」，二三百萬可炒一轉，暫時升幅前景不比豪宅差，這種情況最易出現過熱，必須提防。
香港的樓宇價格有幾個基本要素左右，一是供應，若運房局的3至4年內有7.3萬個單位兌現，現時僧多粥少供不應求的情況必會改變；二是外圍因素，美國加息屬早晚之事，歐洲情未見樂觀，意大利連續第二季GDP負增長，以經濟學的定義即是進入技術性衰退；若情持續，今年意大利經濟可能是負增長0.3%。三是本地經濟因素，雖然香港經濟持續向好，但某些過去長榮不衰的行業出現令人憂心的走向，6月份零售額按年跌6.9%，今年上半年也是2009年金融海嘯以來表現最差的上半年。伴隨是早幾年的「旺舖天價租出」不聞久矣，吉舖在旺區卻見租不出。加上財政司長曾俊華表明上半年香港經濟表現較預期差，有必要下調全年經濟增長預測，樓市風險未完全受控，有再次升溫的象，凡此種種，皆為提醒人們的警號。
買樓是不少港人一生當中最貴重的投資，切不可以超出本身負擔能力而勉強為之。小單位有其吸引人之處，但說到底都是一筆不小的資金，力有所及、亦有需要的話，可以量力而為，一旦巿況翻覆，吃虧的是自己。
Small flats and property bubble
ACCORDING
TO the latest Rates and Valuation Department figures, private housing prices
again rose above record highs last June. They kept rising for a row of three
months, in which those of both luxury flats and small flats went up more than
1%. As for flats smaller than 430 square feet in saleable area (which have been
the talk of real estate agents in town), their price index (taken to be 100 in
1999) went up 2.5% from 263.9 in January this year to 270.5 in June this year.
Small flats are moderately priced and it is relatively easy to get mortgages on
them. They therefore appeal to speculators as well as to those who want to
"climb aboard" - to become first-time homebuyers.
In Hong Kong, an ordinary family typically lives in a
flat between 500 square feet and 600 square feet in area. Now the price of such
a flat is typically between $5 million and $6 million or even higher, which is
quite burdensome to young people who are getting married or who started working
not long ago. Take a $5-million flat. The 30% down payment on it alone is about
$1.5 million, and the price is 13.5 times the median annual household income.
The gap is so wide that those who want to "climb aboard" must either
bemoan their small means or settle for what is less pricey - try to get small
flats, the market of which has a lower threshold. They want to get on the first
level (small-flat level) first and afterwards to improve their living
conditions by "flat swapping".
It helps to solve the housing problem to make small flats
available. Small flats indeed appeal to many at this particular moment. As
their prices are not too high to be affordable to ordinary citizens, they will
conceivably remain marketable for some time to come. Supply falls short of
demand at this moment. Therefore, speculation in them is not a little viable.
One can hardly tell now whether another bubble will take shape. It is early
days yet. However, interest rates are now low, and idle money abounds in the
SAR. Small flats are not "hard to swallow". A person may well
speculate in them if he has two to three million dollars at his disposal. And
prices of small flats are expected to rise at least as fast as those of luxury
flats. It is in such circumstances that overheating is very likely to happen.
That is why precautions ought to be taken.
Housing prices in Hong Kong depend on several basic
factors. One of them is supply. The Transport and Housing Bureau has forecast
that 73,000 units will be completed in three or four years. If this proves the
case, supply will no longer fall short of demand as it has done over the past
few years. The second factor is what happens in other parts of the world. It is
only a matter of time before interest rates go up in the US, and things in
Europe do not inspire optimism. The third is how the Hong Kong economy
performs. Though it is expected to remain strong, some worrying tendencies have
emerged in certain industries which used to be decline-proof. Retail sales in
June this year were down 6.9% on the same period of the previous year. The
first six months of this year turned out to be the worst half-year since the
2009 financial tsunami. Shops fetched sky-high rents a few years ago, but it is
long since the last of such cases was reported. In Mong Kok, some vacated shops
have long remained unoccupied. Furthermore, Financial Secretary John Tsang has
made it clear that, because Hong Kong's economic performance proved worse than
expected in the first half of this year, economic growth this year must be adjusted
downwards. Risk of the property market is not entirely under control, and there
are signs of it heating up. All such things should serve to sound the alarm.
巿場需求小單位熱賣 慎防經濟轉差泡沫爆
差餉物業估價署的最新數據顯示，今年6月份，私樓樓價再度破頂，而且更是連升3個月，豪宅及小型單位都錄得逾1%的升幅。若以近期成為城中地產行業熱話的小型單位、即實用面積430平方呎以下的單位而言，這類單位今年1月指數為263.9（以1999年指數100為基準），6月份為270.5，升幅2.5%。由於小型單位銀碼不大，借貸較為容易，頗受歡迎，於上車一族及投資客俱是如此。
從用家角度來說，當五六百呎的傳統家庭式單位，動輒銀碼都在五六百萬元甚至更多，對出來社會工作不久，或準備結婚的年輕男女是極為沉重的負擔。以500萬元的樓價為例，光是首期便要三成約150萬元，以今天工薪族的收入水平，樓價按港人家庭年收入中位數計算水平達13.5倍，這一巨大差距，令得「上車一族」要麼望樓興嘆，要麼便要退而求其次「以價就樓」，轉向入場門檻較低的小型單位入手——先走上小單位的第一台階，日後藉著換樓，改善居住空間。
在解決居住方面，類似的小型單位，的確在某一特定時空受到歡迎，因為銀碼小，普羅大眾較能負擔得起，相信未來一段時間，這種單位仍有巿場；而且由於單位供應一時間跟不上，炒賣空間不小。至於會否成為另一個泡沫，此刻來說言之尚早，不過，以香港如今的低息環境，游資充裕，「細細粒，容易食」，二三百萬可炒一轉，暫時升幅前景不比豪宅差，這種情況最易出現過熱，必須提防。
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