非常時期須非常手段 暫時限制外地人炒樓

<轉載自2012年9月17日 明報 社評>

 

美國推出沒定規模的QE3（第三輪量化寬鬆政策）後香港隨即收緊按揭，但香港過去多次收緊按揭甚至開徵額外印花稅，均只能對樓市起一時之效，樓價依舊飈升，增加供應亦遠水救不了近火，這次金管局收緊按揭，長遠而言效果成疑。面對這非常時期，香港需要非常的手段，美國聯邦儲備局一日實施極端的零息及印鈔政策，港府就應考慮實行一定程度的限制外來資金買樓措施，阻止外來熱錢炒高香港樓市，但港府須表明一旦美國的極端措施結束，香港的「非常手段」也會結束，避免長遠地破壞香港自由市場的根基。

 

聯儲局周四宣布新一輪量化寬鬆政策，熱錢及持續的低息環境勢將再次推高香港樓市，香港金管局隨即在周五宣布收緊按揭成數，並且重點針對具投資性質的按揭，買樓自住的用家獲得豁免，可算是對準焦點並且反應及時。只是，曾蔭權任內對樓市急升反應過慢，導致土地供應嚴重短缺，樓市泡沫已種下禍根，再加上歷史告訴我們，美國推出前兩輪的量化寬鬆政策後，現時本港樓價已較2008年9月大升六成，其間即使多次收緊按揭甚至推出額外印花稅等「辣招」，最多只能對樓市起短暫遏抑作用，金管局如今再次出招，長遠效用恐怕成疑。

樓市泡沫禍根已種 收緊按揭長遠效用成疑

不少市場人士都指出，要解決樓市急升問題須從長遠供應入手，但推出土地至單位發售往往需時長達5至6年，美國的印鈔政策卻即將「殺到埋身」，遠水根本救不了近火。近年香港與內地經濟聯繫愈見緊密，經濟處於上升周期，但礙於聯匯的羈絆，香港被迫跟隨美國的超低息政策，結果令資產價格火上加油，這次美國推出QE3，既無定出上限，也無說何時終止，其產生的游資可能遠多於前兩輪QE，長遠而言將令香港樓市泡沫愈吹愈大，他日美國息口回升，香港樓市泡沫爆破，後果將甚為嚴重。

由此可見，香港的經濟目前正處於一個非常時期，死守過去的一套只會作繭自縛。美國為求自保不惜採取非常手段瘋狂印鈔，香港為求自保，也應採取較非常的手段，在這段時間實施限制外來資金買樓的政策，盡力避免香港樓市被外來熱錢再次炒高。

澳洲及新加坡近年都有採取類似措施，限制外地人在當地置業，澳洲禁止外國人進入二手物業市場，只能購買特定新樓，新加坡則向外國人及投資者徵收樓價一成的額外印花稅。香港應實施何種措施可以再具體研究，但問題核心是，以收緊按揭、增加額印甚至增加土地供應等傳統手段，是無法應付滾滾而來的熱錢的，香港是時候要「出格一點」，不能再墨守成規了。

表明非常措施短暫實行 不會打擊自由經濟美譽

當然，外來資金只是樓市被炒起的其中一個因素，本地炒家的市場佔有率仍然十分高，限制外地人買樓只是眾多應考慮的措施之一。這次QE3最終會產生什麼後果還未能確定，港府應有兩手準備，若然樓市真的再次失控急升，除了限制外來買家入市外，必要時更可提高特別印花稅稅率及延長徵收年期，甚或考慮提高收租業主的物業稅，多管齊下，遏止樓價繼續飈升。

自由經濟是香港的根基，任何政策若被誤解為對香港自由經濟體系造成重大衝擊，都必須小心謹慎研究，避免向市場發出錯誤信息，影響香港的營商環境及國際聲譽。只要政府明言限制外來人買樓只屬有時限的非常手段，一旦美國放棄瘋狂印鈔後政策便將立即取消，相信對香港自由經濟形象的影響會非常輕微。
 

Editorial

Restrictions Should Be Imposed on Non-Local Property Buyers

 

WITH THE LAUNCH OF QE3 (the third round of US quantitative easing), an influx of hot money and sustained low interest rates are bound to push up home prices in Hong Kong. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority's immediate reaction on Friday was to tighten mortgage lending requirements. However, we should learn from experience. As a result of the first two rounds of US quantitative easing, home prices have gained 60 percent since September 2008, despite all the "drastic measures" introduced by the government, including the repeated tightening of mortgage lending and an additional stamp duty, which at best had only very short-term effects on curbing home prices. The measures taken by the Monetary Authority this time cannot be expected to have any effects in the long term.

 

Many in the property market have pointed out that, to check soaring home prices, there must be an adequate supply of housing for people of all income levels. However, it usually takes five or six years to have a piece of land developed into residential units ready for sale, and to meet our urgent needs we cannot afford to wait that long. In recent years, Hong Kong is becoming more closely integrated with mainland China economically, and the economic cycle is trending upwards. However, because of its currency peg to the US dollar, Hong Kong has to adopt like the US a monetary policy of super-low interest rates, which has further fuelled asset prices. As QE3 has no fixed amount or time limit, it will pump up Hong Kong's property bubble in the long run. And when US interest rates start to rise, Hong Kong's property bubble will burst, with very serious consequences.

It can be seen from the above that Hong Kong is going through a very difficult time. To keep its head above water, the US has to resort to the unusual measure of printing money recklessly. Similarly, to keep its head above water, Hong Kong should adopt some unusual measures, including the introduction of a policy that imposes limitations on the purchase of properties with foreign or mainland capital, so that property prices may not be boosted to a new high.

Both Australia and Singapore have in recent years introduced measures that restrict foreigners from buying local properties. In Australia, foreigners are not allowed to make purchases in the secondary property market, and can only buy certain new properties. In Singapore, an additional stamp duty equivalent to 10 percent of the purchase price of a property is imposed on foreigners and investors. What particular measures should be taken in Hong Kong? Realistic studies have to be carried out before this question can be answered. But it must be understood that conventional measures are useless against the continued influx of hot money.

Of course, hot money pouring into Hong Kong only partly accounts for the high property prices. When local speculators still play an important part in the property market, the imposition of restrictions on foreign and mainland investors represents only one of the many measures that should be considered. It remains to be seen what effects QE3 will ultimately have on Hong Kong. If the property market is to soar again uncontrollably, it may be necessary to increase the special stamp duty and extend its enforcement period. It may even be necessary to increase the property tax payable by owners of rented-out properties. More than one measure should be taken simultaneously to arrest the rise in property prices.

As long as the government makes it clear that the restriction on the purchase of properties by non-locals is a temporary special measure that will be rescinded as soon as the US stops printing money recklessly, it is unlikely that Hong Kong's reputation as a free economy will suffer much.

明報社評2012.09.17﹕非常時期須非常手段 暫時限制外地人炒樓

美國推出沒定規模的QE3（第三輪量化寬鬆政策），熱錢及持續的低息環境勢將再次推高香港樓市，香港金管局隨即在周五宣布收緊按揭成數。只是歷史告訴我們，美國推出前兩輪的量化寬鬆政策後，現時本港樓價已較2008年9月大升六成，其間即使多次收緊按揭甚至推出額外印花稅等「辣招」，最多只能對樓市起短暫遏抑作用，金管局如今再次出招，長遠效用恐怕成疑。

不少市場人士都指出，要解決樓市急升問題須從長遠供應入手，但推出土地至單位發售往往需時長達5至6年，遠水根本救不了近火。近年香港與內地經濟聯繫愈見緊密，經濟處於上升周期，但礙於聯匯的羈絆，香港被迫跟隨美國的超低息政策，結果令資產價格火上加油，這次美國推出QE3，既無定出上限，也無說何時終止，長遠而言將令香港樓市泡沫愈吹愈大，他日美國息口回升，香港樓市泡沫爆破，後果將甚為嚴重。

由此可見，香港的經濟目前正處於一個非常時期。美國為求自保不惜採取非常手段瘋狂印鈔，香港為求自保，也應採取較非常的手段，在這段時間實施限制外來資金買樓的政策，盡力避免香港樓市被外來熱錢再次炒高。

澳洲及新加坡近年都有採取類似措施，限制外地人在當地置業，澳洲禁止外國人進入二手物業市場，只能購買特定新樓，新加坡則向外國人及投資者徵收樓價一成的額外印花稅。香港應實施何種措施可以再具體研究，但問題核心是，傳統手段，是無法應付滾滾而來的熱錢的。

當然，外來資金只是樓市被炒起的其中一個因素，本地炒家的市場佔有率仍然十分高，限制外地人買樓只是眾多應考慮的措施之一。這次QE3最終會產生什麼後果還未能確定，若然樓市真的再次失控急升，除了限制外來買家入市外，必要時更可提高特別印花稅稅率及延長徵收年期，甚或考慮提高收租業主的物業稅，多管齊下，遏止樓價繼續飈升。

只要政府明言限制外來人買樓只屬有時限的非常手段，一旦美國放棄瘋狂印鈔後政策便將立即取消，相信對香港自由經濟形象的影響會非常輕微。