「兩會」有破有立 任期無限惹疑竇

<轉載自2018年2月26日 明報 社評>

本周末，內地政壇的年度大事——人大政協「兩會」將拉開大幕。今天（26日），中共中央為討論今年「兩會」人事安排的三中全會在北京先行召開，今年「兩會」是五年一度的換屆大會，更是中共十九大後的首次「兩會」，會上將要修改憲法、選舉產生新一屆中央領導人，今屆兩會從修憲到人事有破有立，諸多焦點或將載入史冊。昨日，官方公布了中共中央關於修改憲法部分內容的建議，其中有關取消國家主席、副主席任期不超過兩屆的限制最引人注目，對未來將產生深遠的影響。

今次修憲的「立」，是將習近平新時代中國特色社會主義思想寫入憲法，從而奠定習思想在中國政壇的指導地位；同時將確立國家監察委的憲制地位，將中國的政治架構由「一府（中央政府，即國務院）兩院（最高法院、最高檢察院）」，變為「一府一委（監察委）兩院」，這些都是維護政治核心及反腐肅貪的立規之舉。

取消任期限制非終身制 增加權力交接不確定性

而修憲的「破」，則以取消國家最高領導人任期限制為最。中國現行憲法第三章第二節第七十九條規定，中華人民共和國主席、副主席由全國人民代表大會選舉。每屆任期同全國人民代表大會每屆任期相同，連續任職不得超過兩屆。中共中央今次關於修憲的建議第十四條提出，刪除「連續任職不得超過兩屆」的限制，這意味着，國家主席和副主席今後的任期不再有任何限制。

已故中國領導人鄧小平鑑於「文革十年」 的慘痛教訓，於1980年代提出廢除領導幹部終身制，在1982年憲法修改中，增加了領導人任期的限制。雖然說，對任期不作明文規定並不一定等於終身制，但卻讓人有理由相信，國家最高領導人不再是只能連任一屆了。這改變了國內外對國家權力繼承交接的傳統預期，特別是在最高領導人的接班人選缺乏較清晰指向之時，對內對外都不是好事。

改革開放40年來，中共各屆領導經過多年實踐探索，逐漸形成了任期限制、七上八下（即67歲續任，68歲退任）、隔代指定的接班制度，雖仍有不少有待完善的空間，但畢竟給了外間較穩定的政治可預期性。中共十九大卻破例未有為習近平選定接班人選，加上今次修憲要取消領導人任期的限制，令外間對中國權力交接繼承的穩定性、持續性產生了懷疑，增加了政治上的不確定性。不管種種擔心是否杞人憂天，但權力繼承交接的制度化對國家的長治久安十分重要，確是毋庸置疑的。中央作此修改建議的理由外人暫未獲悉，看來有必要在人大會議上作出必要的解釋，以消除各種疑慮。

在人事安排方面，今年「兩會」將要出現的異動可能打破多項慣例：已退出中共領導層的中紀委原書記王岐山，很大機會出任國家副主席，在外交事務方面分擔國家主席習近平的工作。如果成真，將打破近20年內地官場的慣例：即國家領導人都由中共中央領導人兼任，卸任的中共中央領導人也不會再出任國家副主席這一重要職位。而主管外交的政治局委員楊潔篪可能出任國務院副總理，也打破了國務院20年來沒有主管外交的副總理這一格局。王、楊這種破例安排，將會組成近20年中國最強陣容的高層外交團隊，反映中央對於未來國際環境的丕變、中國在世界角色的轉換，都在早作因應。

王岐山楊潔篪劉鶴安排 人事破例安排用心良苦

在經濟方面，過去5年國務院的經濟主導權漸漸被中共總書記習近平麾下的中共中央財經領導小組所取代，而中央財經領導小組辦公室主任劉鶴正是習近平經濟思想的靈魂人物，今年「兩會」劉鶴有望躋身國務院領導層，並可能兼任金融穩定發展委員會主任，從他上月代表中國出席瑞士世界經濟論壇，又將赴美與美方商討平衡兩國貿易逆差來看，他有望成為中國財金界新的掌門人。果如是，可謂創下中財辦主任主導國務院經濟團隊的先例，既可更好地貫徹強調供給側結構改革的習近平經濟思想，亦可望理順國務院與中財辦的關係。

今年是中共十九大規劃三步走實現小康和現代化的開局之年，全球經濟和中國經濟都面臨着一定的風險和挑戰，特別是中美關係的不確定性，給兩國的雙邊經貿關係罩上了一層陰影。對內如何深化供給側結構性改革，對外如何處理好與「一帶一路」沿線國家關係，擴大開放，既是對劉鶴新經濟團隊的挑戰，亦是對王岐山、楊潔篪外交班底的考驗。

中央對港對台政策的新路向也是值得關注的重點，對台工作主帥將由俞正聲換成汪洋，國台辦主任也將由前駐聯合國大使劉結一出任；而上周台灣行政院改組，外交部及陸委會首腦也由陳水扁時代深綠人選取代了留用的淡藍人物，顯示未來兩岸交鋒將會有新的形勢。

對港團隊方面，新的港澳協調小組長盛傳由全國人大委員長的熱門人選栗戰書接任，張德江、李源潮卸任，小組成員亦大幅更新，中央統戰部長尤權加入小組，港澳辦主任張曉明升任副組長，這些新人事對於中央的對港政策都會有影響，值得港人密切留意，因為中共已故領袖毛澤東說過：「政治路線確定之後，幹部就是決定的因素。」

The two aspects of revising the constitution

THE CURTAIN is set to rise this weekend upon China's annual major political event "Lianghui", or the Two Sessions of the NPC (National People's Congress) and the CPPCC (National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference). This year's "Two Sessions" is to be attended by new-term delegates of the two organisations at the beginning of their five-year terms. Further, as the first "Two Sessions" after the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party, it is tasked with revising the constitution and electing a new term of state leaders. As evidenced by the upcoming constitution amendment and personnel changes, this year's "Two Sessions" will see the abolition of old rules and regulations and the introduction of new ones, and many of the changes in focus could earn a place in the history books. Yesterday the authorities released a proposal made by the party's Central Committee regarding the revision of the national constitution. What grabbed most people's attention was the suggestion that the two-term limits on presidency and vice-presidency be removed, which is likely to have profound ramifications.

Regarding the addition of constitution provisions, President Xi's political theory, "Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era", will be written into the constitution so as to give Xi's theory a guiding role in China's politics. Another will be the establishment of the constitutional status of the National Supervisory Commission. From then on, the political structure of China will be changed from "one government (the Central People's Government, or the State Council) and two supremes (the Supreme People's Court and the Supreme People's Procuratorate)" to "one government, one commission (National Supervisory Commission) and two supremes". Both changes can be seen as constructive acts taken to safeguard the political core, fight corruption and curb graft.

As for the reduction of constitution clauses, what will be the most prominent is the scrapping of the limit on the maximum number of terms the paramount leader can serve. The existing constitution of China stipulates in its Chapter Three, Section II, Article 79 that the President and the Vice President of the People's Republic of China are elected by the National People's Congress. Their term of office is the same as that of the National People's Congress, and they shall serve no more than two consecutive terms. Now that the CPC Central Committee has proposed in its fourteenth amendment to delete the clause "shall serve no more than two consecutive terms", there will be no more cap to the tenure of presidents and vice presidents in the future.

Having learnt a bitter lesson from the ten-year Cultural Revolution, late leader Deng Xiaoping proposed in 1980 the end of lifelong tenure of leading cadres. Subsequently in the 1982 constitution revision, a limit on the maximum number of terms of leaders was introduced. Though one may say removing the official limit does not necessarily mean the tenure will become lifelong, the change does offer people reasons to believe the paramount leader will not only stay for one more term. This has altered what people at home and abroad had conventionally expected of the succession of power in China. Whether viewed domestically or internationally, the matter is far from desirable especially at a time when there are no clear directions on an eventual successor for the top leader.

During the forty years of implementing the reform and opening up policy, successive governments of the Communist Party have explored through practice its leadership succession system and have gradually adopted a system characterised by a limited tenure of leaders and the unwritten rules of "seven up, eight down" (remain for the next term if aged 67 or younger, retire if 68 or older ) and picking a successor for the generation after next. While there is still much room for improvement, at least the system has been relatively stable in terms of political predictability to outside eyes. However, the rule was broken during the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party, when there was no announcement of any successor picked for Xi. The abolition of presidential tenure limit in the coming constitution revision will cast further doubts on the stability and continuity of power succession, thus increasing political uncertainty in China.

Whether the worries are exaggerated or not, it is beyond doubt that institutionalising the succession of power is of the utmost importance to the long-term peace and stability of a country. The CPC Central Committee's rationale behind the proposed constitutional revision has yet to be revealed to the outside. Apparently it should offer the explanations needed during the NPC session to dispel all the doubts.

「兩會」有破有立 任期無限惹疑竇

本周末，內地政壇的年度大事——人大政協「兩會」將拉開大幕。今年「兩會」是五年一度的換屆大會，更是中共十九大後的首次「兩會」，會上將要修改憲法、選舉產生新一屆中央領導人，今屆兩會從修憲到人事有破有立，諸多焦點或將載入史冊。昨日，官方公布了中共中央關於修改憲法部分內容的建議，其中有關取消國家主席、副主席任期不超過兩屆的限制最引人注目，對未來將產生深遠的影響。

今次修憲的「立」，是將習近平新時代中國特色社會主義思想寫入憲法，從而奠定習思想在中國政壇的指導地位；同時將確立國家監察委的憲制地位，將中國的政治架構由「一府（中央政府，即國務院）兩院（最高法院、最高檢察院）」，變為「一府一委（監察委）兩院」，這些都是維護政治核心及反腐肅貪的立規之舉。

而修憲的「破」，則以取消國家最高領導人任期限制為最。中國現行憲法第三章第二節第七十九條規定，中華人民共和國主席、副主席由全國人民代表大會選舉。每屆任期同全國人民代表大會每屆任期相同，連續任職不得超過兩屆。中共中央今次關於修憲的建議第十四條提出，刪除「連續任職不得超過兩屆」的限制，這意味着，國家主席和副主席今後的任期不再有任何限制。

已故中國領導人鄧小平鑑於「文革十年」 的慘痛教訓，於1980年代提出廢除領導幹部終身制，在1982年憲法修改中，增加了領導人任期的限制。雖然說，對任期不作明文規定並不一定等於終身制，但卻讓人有理由相信，國家最高領導人不再是只能連任一屆了。這改變了國內外對國家權力繼承交接的傳統預期，特別是在最高領導人的接班人選缺乏較清晰指向之時，對內對外都不是好事。

改革開放40年來，中共各屆領導經過多年實踐探索，逐漸形成了任期限制、七上八下（即67歲續任，68歲退任）、隔代指定的接班制度，雖仍有不少有待完善的空間，但畢竟給了外間較穩定的政治可預期性。中共十九大卻破例未有為習近平選定接班人選，加上今次修憲要取消領導人任期的限制，令外間對中國權力交接繼承的穩定性、持續性產生了懷疑，增加了政治上的不確定性。

不管種種擔心是否杞人憂天，但權力繼承交接的制度化對國家的長治久安十分重要，確是毋庸置疑的。中央作此修改建議的理由外人暫未獲悉，看來有必要在人大會議上作出必要的解釋，以消除各種疑慮。