<轉載自2018年11月19日 明報 社評>
台灣的「九合一」選舉,本周六(24日)就將投票,這次選舉最引人注目的是台北、新北、桃園、台中、台南、高雄6個直轄市(俗稱「六都」)市長選戰,而六都選戰中,又以民進黨大本營的南部高雄市的選情最扣人心弦。事前不被看好、空降參選的國民黨候選人韓國瑜,憑着另類、親和的形象,支持度節節上升,竟成了全台灣的新政治偶像,民調已領先民進黨候選人,無論最終結果如何,由他掀起的「韓流」,都將作為台灣2018年最奇特的政治現象載入史冊。
外省仔韓國瑜空降高雄 演出真人版「龜兔賽跑」
南台灣一直是民進黨鐵票區,高雄更是綠中之深綠,民進黨在此執政20多年,兩年前總統大選,民進黨在這裏贏國民黨56萬多票;4年前高雄市長選舉,民進黨的陳菊大勝國民黨對手54萬票,在這塊「土地挖下去3公尺都是綠色的」地方,外來的韓國瑜能夠逆轉勝,不僅是活生生、真人版的「龜兔賽跑」,也是對民進黨政府的沉重打擊,讓國民黨有了起死回生的希望,更可能給2020年台灣總統大選帶來變數。
與無黨籍的柯文哲於2014年台北市長選戰中一炮而紅略有不同,61歲的韓國瑜既是「外省仔」,又做過立委、副市長,但過去17年,卻是國民黨的棄將淡出政壇,一年半前他從台北農產運銷公司(北農)總經理位子上被民進黨趕走,還捲入貪腐官司,事後證明清白,但他競選國民黨主席還是敗陣。當他去年9月空降高雄競選市長時,國民黨也好,民進黨也好,大概都不會相信他有機會勝選。
韓國瑜抱着置之死地而後生的態度,走另類競選之路。他以「賣菜郎」身分與農漁民溝通,不談「反台獨」和「九二共識」,只談讓農產品銷往對岸;他是國民黨人,但極力與國民黨舊形象保持距離,只強調「這次選舉是高雄市民加上韓國瑜對民進黨投的不信任票」;他一反傳統政治套路,不向對手口出惡言,口才便給、話語淺白,塑造親和形象,「大聲唱歌、大碗喝酒」的特質,頗迎合高雄人的「氣口」(胃口),令他成為「媒體寵兒」。韓國瑜所到之處都有如巨星降臨般掀起狂潮,這股「韓流」颳向全台,他更跨縣市為同黨候選人助選,令國民黨在多個市的市長選情都出現了逆轉的希望。
「九合一」選舉被視為台灣總統蔡英文的「期中考試」,最後無論「韓流」奇蹟會否出現,都將動搖蔡英文及其總統府秘書長陳菊在民進黨內的領導地位,還將改變台灣的政治生態。即使韓國瑜今次飲恨,也很可能挾「韓流」餘威,成為2020年的總統候選人。
無可諱言,「韓流」的出現與選民厭惡傳統政黨政治、求新求變的世界潮流一致,也是4年前開始的柯P現象的翻版。台灣在民主化30年之後,出現異於常態的「政治人物」,民眾看到的是可能改變的想像和興奮,同受年輕族群簇擁,「北柯南韓」成為今年選戰的網絡天王,韓更是青出於藍勝於藍,成功塑造了個性直率、不畏權勢的叛逆形象,在網上爆紅。
民意求變逆襲民進黨 盼台灣告別藍綠惡鬥
但造成「韓流」的更重要原因,用前民進黨立委朱高正的話來說,就是因為民進黨坐擁權力的傲慢。今年的「九合一」大選,有選民戲稱「全民最大黨」就是「討厭民進黨」,距離民進黨全面執政才不過兩年多,民意的「逆襲」如此迅猛,令人意外。
蔡英文政府上台後的倒行逆施,包括干預台大校長遴選,損害大學自治;追查不當黨產之名設立的促轉會,淪為「東廠」機構;兩岸關係惡化,經濟疲弱,在當年「亞洲四小龍」中,台灣已遠遠落後於新加坡、香港及韓國;低薪困境無明顯改善。高雄市近年人均收入下降、人口外流、無新企業進駐,台灣第二大城市地位都失去,8月水災市政府又應對失當,這一切都是造就「韓流」的原因。
選舉臨近,民進黨再度指摘大陸「干預選舉」,但今年操弄「統獨牌」卻不再靈驗。首先,「九合一」是地方選舉,縣市長並無兩岸政策主導權,何况現在是民進黨全面執政;其次,縣市長選戰決勝關鍵在中間選民,升高統獨對決,只能鞏固基本盤,對開拓新票源無益。而對台灣今次選舉,北京堅持沉默是金,令民眾對統獨議題不再賣帳。
島內民意對民進黨的不滿,從能源政策、勞工政策、婚姻平權,到轉型正義、大學自治,都很難以藍綠劃分。韓國瑜的特色就是沒有意識形態的包袱,也不去爭議統獨問題,而民進黨還停留在當年「肚子扁扁,也要選阿扁」的時代,並未察覺到人心思變。「韓流」的啟示就是:台灣民眾已經厭煩意識形態的操弄,希望告別藍綠惡鬥!
"Han" wave provides food for thought
TAIWAN will go to the polls in the coming Saturday's
"nine-in-one" elections. Drawing the most attention is the mayoral
elections in the six special municipalities — Taipei, New Taipei City, Taoyuan,
Taichung, Tainan, Kaohsiung, which are commonly known as the "six capitals".
And of the six races, it is that in Kaohsiung, a southern city as well as a
stronghold of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), that is the most
gripping. Han Kuo-yu, the underdog candidate from the Kuomintang (KMT)
parachuted into the race, has enjoyed rising popularity on the strength of his
alternative yet friendly image, so much so that he has become a new political
idol across Taiwan. Now he is ahead of his Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)
opponent in opinion surveys. Whatever the election results, the "Han
wave" he has triggered will go down in history as the most peculiar
political phenomenon in Taiwan in the year 2018.
Southern Taiwan has long been a stronghold of the DPP, and Kaohsiung is
an especially deep green region. There the DPP has been in government for more
than twenty years. In the presidential election two years ago, the DPP defeated
the KMT by more than 560,000 votes in Kaohsiung. The mayoral election of
Kaohsiung four years ago also saw Chen Chu, the DPP candidate, trounce the KMT
candidate by 540,000 votes. That Han, an outsider to the city, has turned the
tide in a place where "even the earth is green three metres deep" is
the story of "the race between the tortoise and the rabbit" come
true. A heavy blow to the DPP government, it also raises hopes of a KMT
revival. It can even be a wild card in the 2020 presidential election.
Han, whose strategy is to put himself in the direst situation and seeks
survival, campaigns like no one else. He has talked with farmers and fishermen
when presenting himself as a vegetable vendor. He refrains from mentioning
issues such as "opposition to Taiwan's independence" and "the
1992 consensus", talking only about selling agricultural products across
the strait. A member of the KMT, he takes great pains to distance himself from
the old image of the KMT, stressing that "the election will be a vote of
no confidence in the DPP by citizens of Kaohsiung and Han". In a departure
from traditional politics, he did not launch any vitriolic attacks on his
opponent. He has cultivated a friendly image with his eloquence and plain
language. He sings with his heart out and downs wine with deep bowls, which
people of Kaohsiung find relatable. All of a sudden he has become the darling
of the media. Wherever he goes, he stirs passion like a pop star. The "Han
wave" has swept across Taiwan, with Han even campaigning for candidates of
the same party in other municipalities and magistrates, bringing hopes of KMT
revival in many mayoral elections.
The "nine-in-one" elections are seen as a "mid-term
test" for Tsai Ing-wen, the Taiwanese president. No matter whether there will
be a "Han wave" miracle, the leadership of Tsai and Chen Chu, now
secretary general to the president, in the DPP is likely to be challenged. The
political climate of Taiwan will also be changed. Even if Han loses, he might
be able to carry what is left of the "Han wave" into 2020 and become
a presidential candidate.
The "Han wave" reflects one thing: the Taiwanese people are
tired of ideological manipulation and want an end to the bitter disagreements
between the Blue and Green camps.
台灣選舉奇蹟 「韓流」帶來啟示
台灣的「九合一」選舉,本周六(24日)就將投票,這次選舉最引人注目的是台北、新北、桃園、台中、台南、高雄6個直轄市(俗稱「六都」)市長選戰,而六都選戰中,又以民進黨大本營的南部高雄市的選情最扣人心弦。事前不被看好、空降參選的國民黨候選人韓國瑜,憑着另類、親和的形象,支持度節節上升,竟成了全台灣的新政治偶像,民調已領先民進黨候選人,無論最終結果如何,由他掀起的「韓流」,都將作為台灣2018年最奇特的政治現象載入史冊。
南台灣一直是民進黨鐵票區,高雄更是綠中之深綠,民進黨在此執政20多年,兩年前總統大選,民進黨在這裏贏國民黨56萬多票;4年前高雄市長選舉,民進黨的陳菊大勝國民黨對手54萬票,在這塊「土地挖下去3公尺都是綠色的」地方,外來的韓國瑜能夠逆轉勝,不僅是活生生、真人版的「龜兔賽跑」,也是對民進黨政府的沉重打擊,讓國民黨有了起死回生的希望,更可能給2020年台灣總統大選帶來變數。
韓國瑜抱着置之死地而後生的態度,走另類競選之路。他以「賣菜郎」身分與農漁民溝通,不談「反台獨」和「九二共識」,只談讓農產品銷往對岸;他是國民黨人,但極力與國民黨舊形象保持距離,只強調「這次選舉是高雄市民加上韓國瑜對民進黨投的不信任票」;他一反傳統政治套路,不向對手口出惡言,口才便給、話語淺白,塑造親和形象,「大聲唱歌、大碗喝酒」的特質,頗迎合高雄人的「氣口」(胃口),令他成為「媒體寵兒」。韓國瑜所到之處都有如巨星降臨般掀起狂潮,這股「韓流」颳向全台,他更跨縣市為同黨候選人助選,令國民黨在多個市的市長選情都出現了逆轉的希望。
「九合一」選舉被視為台灣總統蔡英文的「期中考試」,最後無論「韓流」奇蹟會否出現,都將動搖蔡英文及其總統府秘書長陳菊在民進黨內的領導地位,還將改變台灣的政治生態。即使韓國瑜今次飲恨,也很可能挾「韓流」餘威,成為2020年的總統候選人。
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