<轉載自2018年10月29日 明報 社評>
美國總統特朗普上周宣布將退出1987年與蘇聯簽署的《中程導彈條約》，理由是俄羅斯已多番違反條約，而未加入該條約的中國又佔了很大便宜，得以放手研發、部署大量的中程導彈。雖然歐洲對美國退出條約深感憂慮，但俄羅斯的反應並不如預期強烈，美國國家安全顧問博爾頓訪俄，還達成了特朗普與普京下月在巴黎再開峰會的共識。中國對美國此舉的反應是「拿中國說事兒（找藉口）沒必要」，取態淡定。雖然有分析指美國此舉意在拉中國進新一輪軍備競賽中，甚至離間中俄關係，但觀乎美俄深層次矛盾，關係要緩和面臨重重難關。倒是中國須警惕美方各種戰爭叫囂的欺騙性，避免重蹈當年蘇聯被美國星球大戰計劃拖垮的覆轍。
美退中程導彈條約 普京特朗普將會晤
《中程導彈條約》（Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty，INF）禁止研發部署射程在500至5500公里的陸基常規導彈和核導彈，被視為歐洲安全的基石，因此歐洲國家對美國有意退出該條約強烈不滿。德國外長馬斯表示，INF關係到歐洲核心利益，德國將盡最大努力維持條約。由於涉及多方利益，條約何去何從，還須視乎各方博弈結果。
特朗普欲退出INF，原因之一是距中期選舉為時不多，希望藉此洗刷長久以來的「通俄」指控，其次是為維持單極軍力主宰，遏制中俄軍力，以削弱對手，同時有利於美國的軍工複合體（Military-Industrial Complex，MIC）。
上周美國國家安全顧問博爾頓訪俄，分別會晤俄總統普京，以及聯邦安全會議秘書帕特魯舍夫、外長拉夫羅夫、防長紹伊古，向俄方闡述美方考慮退出INF的理由，俄方並未對美方此舉強烈譴責，顯示俄方對此已有心理準備。雙方反而達成共識，美俄總統將於下月11日在巴黎的一戰結束100周年紀念活動期間舉行峰會，這是特朗普與普京在7月芬蘭赫爾辛基峰會以來的美俄第二度峰會。同時，俄美還同意兩國軍方在敘利亞問題上保持溝通與合作，今年底舉行副外長級反恐磋商，明年將舉辦商務交流等，難怪博爾頓稱讚與俄方的對話「具建設性」。
自從特朗普與普京7月峰會後，美俄關係不僅未有明顯改善，反而衝突頻現。美國先後以英國落毒案、網絡攻擊等事件為由，對俄實施新制裁；俄方也不顧美國反對，向敘利亞出售S-300防空導彈系統。北約上周展開二戰後最大規模軍演，更突顯美俄的對抗態勢。
特朗普一方面希望與普京保持良好關係，但另一方面又要避免「通俄」標籤。在內有根深柢固的反俄傳統政治、外有歐洲伙伴國恐俄情意結的包圍下，特、普下月峰會對雙邊關係僅具象徵意義，維持目前的「冷和平」狀態，美俄關係難有根本改善。
拖中國入軍備競賽 疑施星戰騙局故伎
由於中國不是INF簽約國，不受條約限制，多年來發展出各種中程彈道導彈，如著名的東風26、東風21D等，都是威懾美國第一、第二島鏈軍事基地及航母編隊的「殺手鐧」，在這方面對美國形成「非對稱」優勢。此次美國退出INF，特別將中國當作針對目標，意味着將在日本或關島等地部署容易隱藏的車載傳統導彈，則會削弱中國在西太平洋「反介入/區域拒止」（Anti-Access/Area Denial，A2/AD）能力。有分析指出，美國此舉是想與中國軍備競賽。
美國對中國頻頻實行戰爭邊緣政策，戰艦戰機穿越飛臨台海、南海，成立太空軍、退出中導條約都劍指中國，頗有「撩交打」之勢，駐歐美國陸軍前司令霍奇斯（Ben Hodges）上周在華沙安全論壇上更預測，中美15年後很可能因太平洋利益衝突爆發戰爭。
人們還記得，美國總統列根在冷戰後期1983年的一次演講中，首次提出戰略防衛倡議（Strategic
Defense Initiative，SDI），亦稱星球大戰計劃（Star Wars Program）。由此將蘇聯拖入一場耗資龐大的軍備競賽。隨着冷戰後中央情報局密件曝光，該計劃被認為是一場徹底的騙局，只是美國為拖垮蘇聯而採取的宣傳手段。今天，面對美國軍政界的戰爭叫囂，中國要警惕，勿受戰略欺騙迷惑，避免重蹈蘇聯前車之鑑。
在中美俄新三國演義中，中美現在已成主要矛盾方，下月在巴黎的特普會、在APEC峰會的習普會、在G20峰會上的習特會，將上演一幕幕地緣政治下的合縱連橫。美國雖然暫時最為強勢，但已難予取予求，因為歐洲、日本都有自身盤算；美俄矛盾難根本緩和，中俄互助有現實需要。那種美國離間中俄關係、甚至聯俄制華的戰略空想，恐怕難以實現。
US and Russia
LAST week US President Donald Trump announced the withdrawal from the
Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) signed with the Soviet Union in
1987 on the grounds that Russia had repeatedly violated the treaty and that
China, which has not signed the treaty, was able to enjoy a lot of advantages
in the sense that it could conduct research on intermediate-range missiles and
deploy a lot of them with free rein. Though Europe has expressed grave
misgivings about the US's withdrawal, Russia's reactions have not been as
strong as expected. John Bolton, the National Security Advisor of the US, has
even forged a consensus over a new summit between Trump and Vladimir Putin next
month in Paris.
The INF, which bans the development of land-based regular missiles and
nuclear missiles that have a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometres, is regarded as
the cornerstone of the security of Europe. For that reason, some European
countries are strongly dissatisfied with the US's withdrawal from the treaty.
Heiko Maas, the German Minister for Foreign Affairs, has said that the INF has
to do with core European interests, and Germany will try its best to save the
treaty. As the interests of many sides are at stake, the future of the treaty
will be dependent on the manoeuvre of all sides.
One of the reasons why Trump wanted to withdraw from the INF was that as
the mid-term elections were drawing near, he was hoping that such an action
could counter the long-standing allegation of collusion with Russia. The second
reason was to maintain a unipolar military dominance and curb the military
might of China and Russia so as to weaken them. This would also be advantageous
to the US's Military-Industrial Complex (MIC).
Last week John Bolton visited Russia, explaining to the Russian side why
the US was considering the withdrawal from the INF. That Russia did not
strongly condemn the move shows that it had been prepared for that. Contrary to
expectation, the two sides reached a consensus that both presidents would
conduct a summit in Paris on the 11th of November on the sidelines of the
commemoration of the centenary of the end of the First World War. That will be
the second summit between Trump and Putin, the first being the one held in
Helsinki, Norway in July. The two countries have also agreed to maintain
communication and cooperation between their military forces on the issue of
Syria. Negotiations on fighting terrorism at the level of deputy secretaries
and business interactions have been scheduled for the end of this year and next
year respectively. No wonder that Bolton has praised the dialogue with Russia
as "constructive".
In the new rivalry between China, the US and Russia, China and the US
have become the principal adversaries. The meetings between Donald Trump and
Putin in Paris next month, between Xi Jinping and Putin at the APEC summit and
between Xi and Trump at the G20 summit will see scene after scene of alliances
forged and countered in the midst of geopolitical considerations. Though the
momentum is with the US at the moment, it is not getting everything it wants,
as Europe and Japan have their own calculations as well. As the disagreements
between the US and Russia cannot be alleviated fundamentally, there is a
practical need for cooperation between China and Russia. The strategic pipe
dream of the US driving a wedge between China and Russia or even working with
Russia to counter China is likely to remain a pipe dream.
美俄難以根本緩和 中國須防戰略欺騙
美國總統特朗普上周宣布將退出1987年與蘇聯簽署的《中程導彈條約》，理由是俄羅斯已多番違反條約，而未加入該條約的中國又佔了很大便宜，得以放手研發、部署大量的中程導彈。雖然歐洲對美國退出條約深感憂慮，但俄羅斯的反應並不如預期強烈，美國國家安全顧問博爾頓訪俄，還達成了特朗普與普京下月在巴黎再開峰會的共識。
《中程導彈條約》（Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty，INF）禁止研發部署射程在500至5500公里的陸基常規導彈和核導彈，被視為歐洲安全的基石，因此歐洲國家對美國有意退出該條約強烈不滿。德國外長馬斯表示，INF關係到歐洲核心利益，德國將盡最大努力維持條約。由於涉及多方利益，條約何去何從，還須視乎各方博弈結果。
特朗普欲退出INF，原因之一是距中期選舉為時不多，希望藉此洗刷長久以來的「通俄」指控，其次是為維持單極軍力主宰，遏制中俄軍力，以削弱對手，同時有利於美國的軍工複合體（Military-Industrial Complex，MIC）。
上周美國國家安全顧問博爾頓訪俄，向俄方闡述美方考慮退出INF的理由，俄方並未對美方此舉強烈譴責，顯示俄方對此已有心理準備。雙方反而達成共識，美俄總統將於下月11日在巴黎的一戰結束100周年紀念活動期間舉行峰會，這是特朗普與普京在7月芬蘭赫爾辛基峰會以來的美俄第二度峰會。同時，俄美還同意兩國軍方在敘利亞問題上保持溝通與合作，今年底舉行副外長級反恐磋商，明年將舉辦商務交流等，難怪博爾頓稱讚與俄方的對話「具建設性」。
在中美俄新三國演義中，中美現在已成主要矛盾方，下月在巴黎的特普會、在APEC峰會的習普會、在G20峰會上的習特會，將上演一幕幕地緣政治下的合縱連橫。美國雖然暫時最為強勢，但已難予取予求，因為歐洲、日本都有自身盤算；美俄矛盾難根本緩和，中俄互助有現實需要。那種美國離間中俄關係、甚至聯俄制華的戰略空想，恐怕難以實現。
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