美艦闖南海島礁 中美對抗機率增

<轉載自2015年10月28日 明報 社評>

在事前大肆張揚下，美國導彈驅逐艦拉森號（USS Lassen）駛入中國南沙群島一些島礁的鄰近海域，盤桓數小時離去。這次美國口中的所謂「巡邏」，擺明憑藉軍事優勢挑釁中國！事態雖然未即時釀成中美軍事對抗，但是基於美國聲言巡邏將持續，中國則傳召美國駐華大使提出嚴正交涉，強調「將繼續嚴密監視有關海空情况，並根據需要採取一切必要措施」。因此，昨日拉森號在島礁之間走一回，只是為中美在南海的較量揭開新一頁，不排除日後發生軍事對抗的可能。

美僅派一艦秀肌肉 或未想即時撕破臉

近年，美國雖然口口聲聲說對南海主權爭議無立場、不選邊站，但是明顯地視南海議題為籌碼，聯結菲律賓、越南等國家，遏制以至對付中國，調子與姿態都拉得很高。美國未能阻止中國擴建島礁之後，派軍艦「巡邏」南海，是所剩無多的選擇之一。視其所為，既可宣示美國不承認島礁擴建後的主權，又可使菲、越等國更靠攏美國，向中國叫板。不過，即使如此，美國今次向中國「秀肌肉」，仍然顯得有一定顧忌。

首先，美國為了今次「巡邏」，背後調動了多少軍事力量，當然不為人知，但是被看到的只是一艘軍艦和兩架偵察機；以這點軍力，儘管可收挑釁之效，但是顯然未能起到震撼效果。其次，啟動「巡邏」之時，美國放風表示為捍衛航行自由，將定期「巡邏」而非針對中國，美艦也會在越南和菲律賓於南海興建的設施附近巡航，云云。美國從「巡邏」規模以至提出貌似公正的說明，藉南海議題遏制中國，但是仍然顧及包裝，除了試探，或未有撕破臉的打算。

美國今次敲打中國，或許也反映國際博弈大環境的一些變化。中國憑藉第二大經濟體的實力，從帶頭成立亞投行、一帶一路部署，到近期美國一些西方盟友紛紛靠攏中國：繼英國擁抱中國之後，未來一周又有德國總理默克爾與法國總統奧德朗先後訪華，美國對此肯定感到不是味兒。若美國仍然要顯示領導地位，國際秩序由它說了算，則在南海營造一定張力氛圍，是一張很好用的牌。不過，若美國藉此顯示存在感，反而是折射國際政治板塊開始鬆動的現實；現在就南海議題，除了日本另有所圖，對美國亦步亦趨之外，其他西方盟友對此保持距離，不能不使美國為此感到焦慮。

中國應對今次美國挑釁，暫時未打算與美國翻臉，例如國家主席習近平在美國表示「不打算把南海軍事化」，另有軍方高層有關「涉及領土主權的問題上，中國也決不會輕言訴諸武力」的表述，有人解讀為中國戰略退卻。即使如此，美國軍艦仍然開來了，而且擺明挑釁！昨日中國出面「接待」拉森號的是導彈驅逐艦昆明號，據外交部發言人描述，昆明號對拉森號「實施了監視、跟蹤和警告」，不過那都是一些靜態對峙，未見不惜對抗與衝突的意圖。

美國在中國的南海島礁之間展示軍力，客觀上使南海軍事化陡地提升。從北京看來，美國以軍力介入南海主權爭議，而且暗示挑釁將持續，中國為了維護主權和捍衛領土完整，很有可能被迫把建好的島礁迅速軍事化，與美軍對抗。設若出現這種發展，南海局勢將波濤洶湧，不可能平靜。

中美差距拉近 對抗機率愈高

近三四十年來，中國與美國發生過零星軍事事件，多屬偶發意外，並未出現過仔細計算規劃的對峙和對抗。以1995和1996年兩次台海危機為例，美國航空母艦曾經結集或通過台灣海域，惟當時中美軍力懸殊，中國不敢硬碰，美國的威懾得逞。可以說，1975年越戰之後，從未出現過中美刻意規劃的對抗局面。近年中國軍力明顯增強，內地軍政界經常流露出在家門口打仗，中國有優勢的觀點；美國則對中國崛起耿耿於懷，近年還有人提出改變與中國接觸的政策，實行以軍力遏制中國的觀點。從中美的現實和對未來的的估計看來，守成大國與新興大國是否可以避免終須一戰的宿命，已經成為揮之不去的懸念。

單就南海主權爭議，在美國的所謂「亞太再平衡」大戰略格局底下，既可以大玩，也可以小玩。今次軍艦「巡邏」，美國定必反覆經過沙盤推演，不能排除有大玩的可能，因為以軍事優勢阻撓中國和平崛起，對美國而言是選項，也是潛在衝動。中國仍然爭取和平的國際環境，發展經濟，意圖以經濟實力崛起；不過，若面臨生存絕續抉擇，中國也只能「應戰」。因此，就中國與美國各自的主觀條件和客觀因素，都有走向對抗的可能，而數十年來未出現過的中美軍事對抗，若在南海上演，不僅攸關地區穩定，也可能是國際新秩序的轉捩點。

Risk of military confrontation surges in South China Sea

AFTER much publicity, the US guided missile destroyer USS Lassen sailed around the Spratly Islands, which belong to China. The destroyer lingered for several hours before leaving the region. This so-called "patrol" was clearly an act of provocation the US carried out relying on its military advantage. Though the patrol was not followed by a military confrontation, the US has declared that it will continue to conduct patrols in the region. The Beijing authorities, on the other hand, have summoned the US ambassador to China, stressing that they "will continue to monitor closely the situations at sea and in the air, and will take all necessary measures should the need arise." By patrolling around the islands yesterday, the USS Lassen has opened a new chapter in the competition between China and the US. The possibility of future military confrontations cannot be ruled out.

Though the US has declared that it will not adopt a stance on the sovereignty disputes over the South China Sea in recent years, it has apparently tried to take advantage of the issue. It has formed alliances with countries like the Philippines and Vietnam, trying to contain - and even confront - China. All this has been done in a high-profile manner. As the US had failed to prevent China from expanding its island-building campaign, sending a military ship to "patrol" the South China Sea was one of the few choices it was left with. As far as we know, the patrol has had the effect of stating that the US does not recognise China's sovereignty of the newly-built islands, as well as pulling the Philippines and Vietnam further to its side. The US has, in other words, mounted a challenge to China. However, though the US is flexing its muscles in front of China, it appears that it has some misgivings about the actions.

First, though we do not know how much military strength the US has mustered for this "patrol", what we saw was just a military boat and two surveillance aircraft. They might have carried out an act of provocation, but, apparently, they have failed to create a deterrent effect. Second, when starting the "patrol", the US signalled that in order to safeguard the freedom of navigation, patrols would be held regularly. These patrols would not be targeted at China, it added, as US military boats would conduct patrols off the facilities built by Vietnam and the Philippines in the South China Sea as well. The scale of the "patrol" and the seemingly legitimate reason offered show that, while the US is trying to contain China by virtue of the South China Sea issue, what it has taken are some veiled, tentative steps, and it seems that the country does not want an all-out confrontation with China at the moment.

Under the so-called "Asia Pacific rebalance strategy", the US can "play" with the sovereignty disputes over the South China Sea islands on different scales. The "patrol" conducted by the military boat must have been a carefully calculated act. We cannot rule out the possibility that the US might have wanted to "play it big", since preventing China's peaceful rise with its military might is not only one of US's options, but also its hidden desire. China is determined to pursue peaceful development, and is eager to build up its economic strength. But when it comes to the survival of the nation, China will have no choice but to "take up the gauntlet". In other words, given the conditions faced by China and the US and the circumstances, the two countries might come into conflict, which has not happened over the past several decades. If the conflict happens in the South China Sea, not only will regional stability be affected, it might also mark the beginning of a new world order.

美艦闖南海島礁 中美對抗機率增

在事前大肆張揚下，美國導彈驅逐艦拉森號（USS Lassen）駛入中國南沙群島一些島礁的鄰近海域，盤桓數小時離去。這次美國口中的所謂「巡邏」，擺明憑藉軍事優勢挑釁中國！事態雖然未即時釀成中美軍事對抗，但是基於美國聲言巡邏將持續，中國則傳召美國駐華大使提出嚴正交涉，強調「將繼續嚴密監視有關海空情况，並根據需要採取一切必要措施」。因此，昨日拉森號在島礁之間走一回，只是為中美在南海的較量揭開新一頁，不排除日後發生軍事對抗的可能。

近年，美國雖然口口聲聲說對南海主權爭議無立場、不選邊站，但是明顯地視南海議題為籌碼，聯結菲律賓、越南等國家，遏制以至對付中國，調子與姿態都拉得很高。美國未能阻止中國擴建島礁之後，派軍艦「巡邏」南海，是所剩無多的選擇之一。視其所為，既可宣示美國不承認島礁擴建後的主權，又可使菲、越等國更靠攏美國，向中國叫板。不過，即使如此，美國今次向中國「秀肌肉」，仍然顯得有一定顧忌。

首先，美國為了今次「巡邏」，背後調動了多少軍事力量，當然不為人知，但是被看到的只是一艘軍艦和兩架偵察機；以這點軍力，儘管可收挑釁之效，但是顯然未能起到震撼效果。其次，啟動「巡邏」之時，美國放風表示為捍衛航行自由，將定期「巡邏」而非針對中國，美艦也會在越南和菲律賓於南海興建的設施附近巡航，云云。美國從「巡邏」規模以至提出貌似公正的說明，藉南海議題遏制中國，但是仍然顧及包裝，除了試探，或未有撕破臉的打算。

單就南海主權爭議，在美國的所謂「亞太再平衡」大戰略格局底下，既可以大玩，也可以小玩。今次軍艦「巡邏」，美國定必反覆經過沙盤推演，不能排除有大玩的可能，因為以軍事優勢阻撓中國和平崛起，對美國而言是選項，也是潛在衝動。中國仍然爭取和平的國際環境，發展經濟，意圖以經濟實力崛起；不過，若面臨生存絕續抉擇，中國也只能「應戰」。因此，就中國與美國各自的主觀條件和客觀因素，都有走向對抗的可能，而數十年來未出現過的中美軍事對抗，若在南海上演，不僅攸關地區穩定，也可能是國際新秩序的轉捩點。