南海局勢發展 端視美艦如何持續巡航

<轉載自2015年10月29日 明報 社評>

美國軍艦駛入中國南沙群島一些島礁的附近海域，客觀上使南海緊張局勢陡地升溫。值得指出的是，美艦耀武揚威之後，美國官方操作不算高調；中國方面，國防部證實美艦闖入南海島礁，中國派出兩艘戰艦跟監警告，外交部發言人與駐美大使崔天凱分別指摘美國的行為和重申立場，語調都強烈。除此之外，暫時未知中國會否採取反制措施。看來，中美就此事的較量仍在試探階段，而從雙方在美艦「巡邏」之後對中美關係的表述，有理由相信雙方都不欲撕破臉。不過，由於美艦聲言持續「巡邏」，事態變數仍多，難以估計會否惡化。

中美外交語言 仍然叨念雙邊關係

「拉森號」闖入島礁海域之後，美國國防部除了證實消息，國務院和白宮發言人分別強調航行自由以外，對事態並不多言。美國國防部長卡特在國會聽證會答覆提問時，也避免確認拉森號進入了中國島礁的12海里範圍，只肯說相關報道都正確；其說法有點微妙。歷來美國在全球各地開展軍事行動都會動員傳媒配合，搶奪話語權以宣揚行動的正確一面，今次美艦闖入南海卻未見類似操作。美國的「低調」，或許與行動的法理依據不足有關，又或不想過度刺激中國，大概要觀察中國的回應才部署下一步行動等，有多種可能。

目前無法猜度美國的意圖。不過，闖入事件未及24小時，美國已經傳來美軍太平洋司令哈里斯下星期訪問北京，重點討論南海問題，避免擦槍走火，云云。消息暫時未獲官方證實，但若屬實，則有理由相信美國顧慮事態惡化，期望做好管控，以免出現中美鬥破了，釀成雙邊關係無法挽回的局面。

美國國務院發言人在記者會上說「美中關係至關重要，為了我們兩國的利益，我們希望看到這項關係繼續改善、成長，更不用說為了區域利益」；這番善頌善禱，當然是要符合美國定義的中美關係和南海主權爭議。不過，國務院發言人在軍事行動之後，仍然肯念「美中關係經」，起碼反映外交系統還不想見到中美決裂。

中國就此事的回應，目前只見在外交層面，表現出立場堅定，語調強烈。中國駐美大使崔天凱指此事「顯然是嚴重的政治和軍事挑釁，是試圖使地區局勢軍事化和緊張升級的行為」。崔天凱就事態性質的表述，重點是對美國此舉意圖的研判；既然明知美國有意搞亂南海以獲取利益，則中國是否會在美國設定的框架「陪玩」，事態考驗北京處理危機與複雜關係的智慧。

盡量鬥而不破 符合中國實力利益

綜觀中國外交系統的表態，仍然期望與美國「鬥而不破」。不過，這個只是中國的主觀願望，若美國把事態發展至「鬥破局」，中國也只能被迫奉陪。崔天凱說無論發生什麼，中國有4個不動搖，其中包括「不會動搖我們與美國發展健康有力的雙邊關係的決心」，只是「希望美方與中方相向而行」。可見，從中美外交系統傳來的信息，都期望今次事件不會影響雙邊關係持續發展；問題是美國說「巡邏」持續進行，更有軍方消息說會出動航空母艦到南海島礁附近海域。這類消息或許只是「神經戰」，可是一旦有鷹派意圖鬧大事態，則中美關係會否衝破險阻健康前進，就無法估計了。

美國藉軍力優勢，從政治和軍事兩方面挑釁中國，以南海爭議的性質，中國若忍氣吞聲，有可能後患無窮。首先是其他主權聲索國將倍加挾美自重，在南海更肆無忌憚地侵奪中國的權益；其次是美國一朝得手，日後更不把中國放在眼裏，對中國的擠壓將是不可承受之重。論軍事硬實力，中國遠遠落後於美國，若單以軍力抗衡，對中國風險極高；不過，中國也有鷹派，他們的能量會否催動北京嘗試軍事冒險，值得密切關注。無論事態如何發展，有兩點值得北京考慮：一是盡量確保「鬥而不破」，因為最符合中國現在國力和利益；二是「上兵伐謀」，目前中美都還不想撕破臉的鬥爭格局，謀略或許較調集大軍更重要。

1995、1996年兩次台海危機，美國出動航母戰鬥群震懾中國；經此「屈辱」，激發北京投入資源，實行全面軍事現代化，建造航空母艦也是此際下的決心。20年來，特別是空軍與海軍建設的進展不俗，雖然與美國仍有明顯差距，但是已經收窄。今次南海事件，勢將使北京更加認識到強軍的必要和重要。另外，美國這麼一搞，使中國在南海更無退路，為了突破捱打局面，在控制島礁建設防禦性軍事設施，看來是無可避免了。

On the latest situation in the South China Sea

EVER SINCE a US military ship sailed into waters around some of the Spratly Islands - which belong to China - the other day, tensions in the South China Sea have been escalating.

After the USS Lassen entered the waters, the US Department of Defense confirmed the news, while both the Department of State and the spokesperson of the White House stressed the importance of upholding the freedom of navigation. But they said no more than that. When answering a question during a congressional hearing, Ashton Carter, the US Secretary of Defense, stopped short of confirming that the USS Lassen had sailed within twelve nautical miles of China's islands, saying merely that all the reports were true. In the past, when starting a military campaign in any part of the world, the US government would mobilise the media to gain their cooperation, trying to propagate the legitimacy of the campaign. But the US did not do so when the military ship sailed into the South China Sea. Why has the US kept such a low profile? There can be many explanations for that. Perhaps the US is aware that its actions are not entirely legitimate, or it does not want to over-provoke China. The US might want to see how China will respond before taking the next step.

The US's intentions cannot be determined at the moment. However, less than 24 hours after the incident happened, it was said that Admiral Harry B. Harris, Commander of the United States Pacific Command, would visit Beijing next week, and that the discussion would be focused on the South China Sea issue and preventing the situation from spiraling out of control. The rumour has not been officially confirmed yet. However, if it turns out to be true, then we can assume that the US is being careful that the situation will not deteriorate further. The US is trying to stay on top of things in order to prevent a full-blown crisis from happening, which would bring relations between China and the US to an irreversible point.

Relying on its military advantage, the US has tried to provoke China politically and militarily. Given the nature of the South China Sea controversy, China may be faced with no end of trouble if it chooses to condone the US's actions. First, countries that have laid claim to the South China Sea islands will take advantage of the US's influence and will have no scruples about encroaching on China's rights. Second, once the US has its way, it will no longer treat China as a worthy opponent, and will tyrannise China in an even more heavy-handed style. China is lagging way behind the US in terms of military power. The risk will be extremely high if China tries to take on the US militarily. That said, it is worth our close attention whether the hawkish politicians in China will succeed in encouraging the Beijing authorities to take the risk of engaging the US militarily. No matter how things go, there are two suggestions that are worthy of the Beijing authorities' consideration. The first is trying as much as it can to avoid triggering a full-blown crisis when confronting the US. For this is best strategy given China's national strength at the moment. It is also in the best interests of China. Secondly, as Sun Tzu said, the best a general can do is foil his enemy's plans. As neither China nor the US wants an all-out struggle, the formulation of strategies might be more important than the mobilisation of military forces.

During the two Taiwan Strait crises that happened in 1995 and 1996 respectively, the US mobilised its carrier battle group to deter China. The "humiliation" galvanised the Beijing authorities into devoting resources to the full modernisation of its military equipment. It was then that Beijing resolved to build its own aircraft carrier. Twenty years have passed since then, and the building up of China's air and naval forces has been quite successful. True, there is still a gap between China and the US in the quality of these forces, but it is not as wide as before. The latest incident in the South China Sea will probably make the Beijing authorities realise the necessity and importance of strengthening its military forces. Furthermore, as the US has made a mess in the South China Sea, China has reached the point of no return. The construction of defensive military equipment on the islands controlled by China now seems necessary.

南海局勢發展 端視美艦如何持續巡航

美國軍艦駛入中國南沙群島一些島礁的附近海域，客觀上使南海緊張局勢陡地升溫。

「拉森號」闖入島礁海域之後，美國國防部除了證實消息，國務院和白宮發言人分別強調航行自由以外，對事態並不多言。美國國防部長卡特在國會聽證會答覆提問時，也避免確認拉森號進入了中國島礁的12海里範圍，只肯說相關報道都正確。歷來美國在全球各地開展軍事行動都會動員傳媒配合，以宣揚行動的正確一面，今次美艦闖入南海卻未見類似操作。美國的「低調」，或許與行動的法理依據不足有關，又或不想過度刺激中國，大概要觀察中國的回應才部署下一步行動等，有多種可能。

目前無法猜度美國的意圖。不過，闖入事件未及24小時，美國已經傳來美軍太平洋司令哈里斯下星期訪問北京，重點討論南海問題，避免擦槍走火，云云。消息暫時未獲官方證實，但若屬實，則有理由相信美國顧慮事態惡化，期望做好管控，以免出現中美鬥破了，釀成雙邊關係無法挽回的局面。（編按：中美雙方都已確認哈里斯訪華消息屬實。）

美國藉軍力優勢，從政治和軍事兩方面挑釁中國，以南海爭議的性質，中國若忍氣吞聲，有可能後患無窮。首先是其他主權聲索國將倍加挾美自重，在南海更肆無忌憚地侵奪中國的權益；其次是美國一朝得手，日後更不把中國放在眼裏，對中國的擠壓將是不可承受之重。論軍事硬實力，中國遠遠落後於美國，若單以軍力抗衡，對中國風險極高；不過，中國也有鷹派，他們的能量會否催動北京嘗試軍事冒險，值得密切關注。無論事態如何發展，有兩點值得北京考慮：一是盡量確保「鬥而不破」，因為最符合中國現在國力和利益；二是「上兵伐謀」，目前中美都還不想撕破臉的鬥爭格局，謀略或許較調集大軍更重要。

1995、1996年兩次台海危機，美國出動航母戰鬥群震懾中國；經此「屈辱」，激發北京投入資源，實行全面軍事現代化，建造航空母艦也是此際下的決心。20年來，特別是空軍與海軍建設的進展不俗，雖然與美國仍有明顯差距，但是已經收窄。今次南海事件，勢將使北京更加認識到強軍的必要和重要。另外，美國這麼一搞，使中國在南海更無退路，在控制島礁建設防禦性軍事設施，看來是無可避免了。