南海激流暗湧 成中美紛爭熱點

<轉載自2015年10月12日 明報 社評>

中國在南海的兩個島礁的燈塔上周亮燈，標誌着中方的島礁建設已進入設施完工啟用階段。英美傳媒報道，美國海軍或在兩周內派艦艇進入中國在南海填海擴建的島礁12海里範圍內，以強烈表達不承認相關島礁的主權主張。太平洋美軍司令哈里斯稱，軍方已為上述行動做好準備工作，只等總統奧巴馬下達指令。這些消息在習近平剛結束訪美、下月將訪問越南並將赴菲律賓出席APEC年度峰會之際放出來，顯示南海問題很可能成為未來中美矛盾的新熱點。

各方勢力紛介入 南海矛盾或激化

在中美各種矛盾中，人權問題是多年之爭，流於口水戰；網絡黑客和商業竊密問題也不過是諜戰的一部分，加上中方妥協，更拘捕部分黑客，向美國釋出善意，兩國在此問題上不可能兵戎相見；在經濟融合的今天，貿易戰更難打得起來。只有南海問題，是近年中美兩軍海空對峙最多的地方，又有美、日、俄、印、菲、越以及東盟等多種勢力介入，可謂錯綜複雜，令中美在南海的矛盾愈來愈有可能激化。

不久前在習奧會後的記者會上，中美兩國元首在南海問題上各說各話，顯示對此問題分歧依舊。中方堅持南海諸島自古以來就是中國的領土，並稱對此有充足的歷史和法理依據。美國雖聲稱對南海紛爭不持立場，但堅持南海通航自由。其實美國還有一個不便宣之於口的理由，即南海是美軍長年對中國海空逼近偵查的重要通道，美軍機艦穿過南海可直抵中國核潛艇主要基地海南島觀測，中方在南海的島礁建設，將解放軍預警範圍陡然擴大了數百甚至上千公里，對美軍機艦未來的偵查活動造成極大不便。

當然，中方的造島活動也引起東盟部分國家特別是菲律賓和越南的的不滿，菲、越兩國都有意借助美國軍力抗衡中國，這是對美國重返亞太戰略的考驗，美方若無功而返，今後在亞太區將大失顏面。

日方態度趨高調 圍魏救趙為東海

值得注意的是，過往在南海較為低調的日本政府，近年在南海漸趨活躍，不僅積極強化與菲、越兩國的軍事合作，參與美菲聯合軍演，日本政府內部甚至出現由海上自衛隊船艦和美國艦艇一同駛入中國人工島礁周邊12海里內的構想。表面理由是南海是日本對外貿易的主要航道，航行自由是日本的生命線。但深層次的原因還是與近年的中日矛盾激化、日本外交重心轉向遏制中國方向有關。若中國深陷南海危機，有利於緩解日方在東海釣魚島面對的壓力，有圍魏救趙之功。

習近平將訪菲越 軟硬兼抽釜底薪

對於中國來說，南海問題事關國家主權、領土完整，可謂退無可退。但環顧周邊，強敵環伺，輕啟戰端又會影響經濟發展和改革開放大計。因此，北京對南海一直有軟、硬兩手，希望化解外界的壓力。

硬的方面就是堅持主權不退讓，拒絕接受菲律賓提出的國際法庭仲裁，在南海島礁的大規模基建更是宣示主權的具體動作；軟的方面，中方在多邊談判方面妥協，同意與東盟商討制訂「南海行為準則」，同時與越南達成管控海上分歧的共識，去年越南反華騷亂發生後，撤走了981號鑽井平台。

國家主席習近平將於11月訪問越南，而按慣例他也將出席11月在馬尼拉舉行的亞太經合組織（APEC）峰會，這兩次訪問雖對南海紛爭未必有止戈息爭的治本之效，至少可以緩和中國與兩國的緊張關係。特別是越共將於明年1月召開世代交替的十二大，親華的總書記阮仲富和剛在聯合國批評過中國南海立場的國家主席張晉創都將退休，未來新領導人對華取態值得觀察；而菲律賓明年5月也將舉行總統大選，目前支持度領先的前3名候選人中，有兩人對華態度溫和。因此，北京若採取主動，改善與越、菲兩國關係，對於有心介入南海局勢的美、日兩國來說，無疑有釜底抽薪之效。

由於中美兩軍已經簽署了機艦相遇的行為準則，近年來兩國軍方也開始建立定期溝通管道，只要雙方高層保持冷靜，就能避免擦槍走火。

長遠來看，南海問題的解決仍賴於中國與周邊各國的和平談判，制訂行為準則，來維持地區的和平安寧。因為南海戰事一開，不僅中美兩敗俱傷，處於矛盾漩渦的菲、越兩國，也難置身事外，整個東盟都難免池魚之殃，沒有人是贏家，最終令21世紀的亞太繁榮前景化為烏有。

Hot spot of Sino-US conflict

THE LIGHTHOUSES China had built on two reefs in the South China Sea went on last week. That means China's reef facilities have been completed and will soon be brought into operation. According to UK and US media reports, to express strongly America's rejection of China's claim to sovereignty over some islands Beijing has built there by reclamation, the US Navy may send in two weeks its vessels within twelve nautical miles of them. Harry Harris, who heads the US Pacific Command, has said the military have made preparations for the operation and are only awaiting President Barack Obama's order. As Xi Jinping has just wrapped up his US visit and is to visit Vietnam and attend an annual Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in the Philippines next month, the transpiration of the news shows the South China Sea question may well be a new hot spot of Sino-US conflict in the days to come.

It is worth attention that the Japanese government, which used to keep a low profile in the South China Sea, has become more and more active there. Not only has Japan positively stepped up its military cooperation with Vietnam and the Philippines and taken part in a joint US-Philippine military drill, but Tokyo has also come up with the idea of Japan Maritime Self-Defence Force vessels travelling together with US navel ships within twelve nautical miles of China's artificial islands.

As the South China Sea question has to do with China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, one may say there is no way Beijing can give ground about it in any manner. However, China being encircled by its strong enemies, its important plans of economic development and reform and opening-up may be thwarted if it recklessly provokes a war. Therefore, Beijing has all along relied on both hard and soft tactics in dealing with the South China Sea question in the hope of easing external pressure.

Its hard tactic is to refuse to give ground in any manner when it comes to sovereignty. It has rejected the Philippines' suggestion that the South China Sea question be referred to an international court for arbitration. To assert its sovereignty, it has actually carried out large-scale infrastructure projects on South China Sea islets. Its soft tactic is to compromise at multilateral talks. It has agreed to have talks with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) about the formulation of a "South China Sea code of conduct". It has also come to an agreement with Vietnam about managing maritime differences. Last year, it removed its 981 drilling rig after anti-China riots had broken out in Vietnam.

President Xi Jinping is to visit Vietnam next November, and he will attend an APEC summit in Manila in the same month. It may not be possible to end South China Sea disputes once and for all during either visit, but it is at least possible to ease Sino-Vietnamese and Sino-Philippine tension. Next January will see the 12th national congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam, at which one generation will give way to another. Both General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, who is pro-China, and President Truong Tan Sang, who has just criticised China for its stance on the South China Sea question in the United Nations, will then retire. It remains to be seen how new Vietnamese leaders will be disposed towards China. Furthermore, next May will see a presidential election in the Philippines. Two of the three most-supported candidates are affable to China. If China offers to mend fence with the two countries, it can doubtless spirit away what may fuel America's and Japan's intention to intervene in the South China Sea situation.

In the long term, the South China Sea question can only be settled through peace talks between China and its neighbours. A code of conduct ought to be laid down so that peace and tranquillity can be maintained in the region. Once war breaks out in the South China Sea, both China and the US will suffer. Then, as both Vietnam and the Philippines are in the whirlpool of conflict, neither of them can avoid being affected, and the whole ASEAN will be victimised. None would win and, eventually, any hope for Asia-Pacific prosperity would evaporate.

南海激流暗湧 成中美紛爭熱點

中國在南海的兩個島礁的燈塔上周亮燈，標誌着中方的島礁建設已進入設施完工啟用階段。英美傳媒報道，美國海軍或在兩周內派艦艇進入中國在南海填海擴建的島礁12海里範圍內，以強烈表達不承認相關島礁的主權主張。太平洋美軍司令哈里斯稱，軍方已為上述行動做好準備工作，只等總統奧巴馬下達指令。這些消息在習近平剛結束訪美、下月將訪問越南並將赴菲律賓出席APEC年度峰會之際放出來，顯示南海問題很可能成為未來中美矛盾的新熱點。

值得注意的是，過往在南海較為低調的日本政府，近年在南海漸趨活躍，不僅積極強化與菲、越兩國的軍事合作，參與美菲聯合軍演，日本政府內部甚至出現由海上自衛隊船艦和美國艦艇一同駛入中國人工島礁周邊12海里內的構想。

對於中國來說，南海問題事關國家主權、領土完整，可謂退無可退。但環顧周邊，強敵環伺，輕啟戰端又會影響經濟發展和改革開放大計。因此，北京對南海一直有軟、硬兩手，希望化解外界的壓力。

硬的方面就是堅持主權不退讓，拒絕接受菲律賓提出的國際法庭仲裁，在南海島礁的大規模基建更是宣示主權的具體動作；軟的方面，中方在多邊談判方面妥協，同意與東盟商討制訂「南海行為準則」，同時與越南達成管控海上分歧的共識，去年越南反華騷亂發生後，撤走了981號鑽井平台。

國家主席習近平將於11月訪問越南，而按慣例他也將出席11月在馬尼拉舉行的亞太經合組織（APEC）峰會，這兩次訪問雖對南海紛爭未必有止戈息爭的治本之效，至少可以緩和中國與兩國的緊張關係。特別是越共將於明年1月召開世代交替的十二大，親華的總書記阮富仲和剛在聯合國批評過中國南海立場的國家主席張晉創都將退休，未來新領導人對華取態值得觀察；而菲律賓明年5月也將舉行總統大選，目前支持度領先的前3名候選人中，有兩人對華態度溫和。因此，北京若採取主動，改善與越、菲兩國關係，對於有心介入南海局勢的美、日兩國來說，無疑有釜底抽薪之效。

長遠來看，南海問題的解決仍賴於中國與周邊各國的和平談判，制訂行為準則，來維持地區的和平安寧。因為南海戰事一開，不僅中美兩敗俱傷，處於矛盾漩渦的菲、越兩國，也難置身事外，整個東盟都難免池魚之殃，沒有人是贏家，最終令21世紀的亞太繁榮前景化為烏有。