國民黨失格救選舉 早知今日何必當初

<轉載自2015年10月8日 明報 社評>

明年1月台灣大選之後，蔡英文帶領民進黨勝選，台灣再度出現政黨輪替的局面，在島內島外幾乎沒有什麼懸念。然而，在距離投票尚有約100日之際，國民黨突然要撤換原來代表競逐總統大位的洪秀柱，由黨主席朱立倫頂上。這次陣前易將，對國民黨選情帶來多大提振作用，尚待觀察；不過，事態反映國民黨進退失據，以舉黨之力迫退一名「小女子」，失格之處，或許要付出代價。另外，今次事態會否促使國民黨進一步分裂，改變台灣的政治板塊和生態，特別值得注意。

洪秀柱歪打正着 國民黨大佬現形

過去7年，國民黨主政台灣，民衆支持急速流失，這在去年底七合一地方選舉，民進黨大勝、國民黨慘敗顯露出來。民進黨氣勢如虹，對於明年總統大選，國民黨內重量級人馬對參選都推來推去，洪秀柱表態參選，聲言「拋磚引玉」，迫使黨內頭面人物現身。只是，洪秀柱走完整個黨內初選程序，符合參選資格，所謂黨內大佬仍然神隱，無論洪秀柱有意栽花抑或無心插柳，總之今年7月19日，國民黨全國代表大會同意洪秀柱代表國民黨參選總統；這些法定程序，都是在朱立倫主持下完成。昨日的國民黨中常會啟動「換柱」操作，通過召開臨時全國黨代會，預期月內會完成更換總統提名人，改由朱立倫出選總統。

當日包括朱立倫在內的國民黨重量級人馬，在勝選機會甚微面前，從個人令譽考量，不肯為黨的利益作出承擔；洪秀柱歪打正着成為總統提名人，競選工程進行了近3個月之後，現在突然要將她迫退。對此，不僅洪秀柱表明堅持參選到底，島內不少人對國民黨罔顧程序公義，「欺壓」洪秀柱，都不以為然。國民黨今次做法，被認為偏離了同理心，而且黨內一大堆「大男人」與洪秀柱這位「小女子」的對比，放在台灣社會的民風、民情審視，或許有更多人認同洪秀柱。國民黨在此事上，失去了作為堂堂大黨、百年老店的應有格調，民衆對弱者的同情和對出爾反爾的反彈，會否在投票時表露出來，值得注意。

洪秀柱的民調支持度，與蔡英文比較差距懸殊，與親民黨的宋楚瑜比較，也只是叮噹馬頭，有「難兄難妹」之嘆。即使洪與宋加起來的支持度，與蔡英文仍有大段距離。據熟悉選情人士研判，國民黨今次甘冒駡名之險，製造「柱下倫上」局面，志不在總統大位，只是看到連帶舉行的立法委員選舉，也受到洪秀柱民望低迷的影響；若不改變，恐有慘敗之虞。今次陣前易將，目的為挽救立委選情。另外，據透露迫使國民黨中央撤換洪秀柱的壓力，主要來自地方。

宋楚瑜屢敗屢戰，今次同樣在毫無勝選機會下再參選總統，分析認為他志不在當選，只是希望藉着母雞帶小雞，推高親民黨的立委選情，期望爭取多一些議席，以免親民黨進一步蒸發。國民黨立委選情告急，這是島內政治生態氣候使然，洪秀柱自顧不暇，遑論藉光環為同黨立委參選人加持。國民黨換朱立倫上陣，尋求打破立委選舉困局，或許是迫不得已的選擇，只是違諾在先，迫退於後，加上國民黨隱然有分崩離析之勢，這張「主席牌」的效用，只能說等着瞧。

本土派發難逼宮 埋選後分裂危機

國民黨歷經演變，爭權奪利已經掩蓋理想使命，特別是國民黨本土派早萌異心。今次「換柱」事件，中南部最積極，地方領袖甚至宣稱要組織「台灣國民黨聯盟」，迫使國民黨及早撤換洪秀柱，否則會有進一步行動，云云。由此看來，為了洪秀柱的問題，國民黨埋下了大分裂的種子。現在已經啟動「換柱」，國民黨分裂危機暫時可免爆發，不過一般認為國民黨進一步裂解，或許會在選舉之後。

目前情勢，只要民進黨不再犯大錯，不再有類如陳水扁治下的貪污腐敗，則起碼未來8年，國民黨將難有翻身之日。隨着時日愈推移，國民黨若不調整，與島內民情更脫節，往後看不到在政治上有更大發展機會。政客只看現實利益，若國民黨未能滿足利益渴求，則「台灣國民黨」會否由虛擬而成為實體，就成為愈趨迫切的懸念。這是關乎台灣政治板塊重組，為兩岸現狀帶來改變的潛在因素。洪秀柱的統一言論，國民黨視為「換柱」理據之一，現在她宣稱誓不退選，折射出來島內對兩岸定位的爭議，反映今次選舉牽動兩岸現狀的一面。其實，「中國國民黨」與「台灣國民黨」的消長，也從「換柱」事件折射出來。

現在國民黨的亂局，最高興的肯定是民進黨。國民黨分崩離析、各自盤算，對照民進黨團結一致、上下一心，優劣立見，勝負只待完成程序而已。有台獨黨綱的民進黨再度執政，在美國、日本加強圍堵中國的亞太形勢下，台灣與大陸將出現什麼狀態的互動，備受關注。這是國民黨掉失台灣政權之後，北京要面對和處理的新局面。

On KMT's frantic efforts to salvage its presidential campaign

TO the Taiwanese people and outsiders alike, the outcome of the presidential election, to be held in January, is a foregone conclusion. It will conclude with the victory of Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) leader Tsai Ing-wen, and she will usher in the rule of a new political party. However, just around 100 days before the polling day, the Kuomintang (KMT) leadership has suddenly decided to remove Hung Hsiu-chu, the party's presidential candidate, from the race and nominate Chu Li-luan, the incumbent KMT chairman, instead. While it remains to be seen how this change will improve the KMT's chances, the incident shows that the KMT leadership has been caught off guard by what is happening. Furthermore, by trying to kick out a female candidate with all their might, which is such an indecent thing to do, the KMT leadership might have a price to pay. It is also worth our attention whether the incident will further divide the party and change the political landscape of Taiwan.

The past seven years have seen the rapid loss of the ruling KMT's popularity. This has been shown by last year's "7-in-1" district elections, in which the DPP scored an overwhelming victory over the KMT. The DPP's irresistible momentum rendered the big guns of KMT unwilling to join the presidential race. It was then Hung announced her candidacy, saying that she wanted to stimulate competition and compel other KMT heavyweights to make an appearance. Hung went through the entire nomination process. She took part in the primary and won the nomination, while the big guns continued to stay out of the public eye. Hung might not have predicted that things would turn out this way. The KMT National Congress, nevertheless, confirmed on 19 July that Hung was the presidential candidate of the KMT. The entirety of such legal procedures was completed with Chu in charge of the party. Yesterday, however, the KMT Central Standing Committee initiated the process of removing Hung from the race. A motion to hold an extempore party congress was adopted, and it is expected that everything will be confirmed by the end of this month, the result being Chu's presidential nomination.

Several months back, it was KMT heavyweights like Chu who refused to act in the best interest of their party. They cared only about their own reputations, refusing to rise to the challenge when the chance of winning was too low. With a bit of luck, Hung was nominated as the presidential candidate, and it has been almost three months since her campaign began. Now the KMT leadership wants her out of the way. While Hung has declared that she would not withdraw from the race, many Taiwanese people have expressed disapproval of the KMT's disregard for procedural justice, as well as its "bullying" of Hung. To their eyes, the KMT leadership has displayed a lack of empathy. The strong contrast between the KMT heavyweights, who are a band of male politicians, and Hung, a female candidate, might arouse sympathy for Hung given the characteristics of Taiwanese society and the public opinion at the moment. What the KMT leadership has done is the antithesis of the prestige expected from KMT, a major, century-old party. It is worth our attention whether the Taiwanese people's sympathy towards Hung and their displeasure at the KMT's U-turn will affect the election result.

No one is happier than DPP members when the KMT is in disarray. The division of the KMT and the selfishness of its members are in sharp contrast to DPP's solidarity. The difference in quality between being so wide, the election result is almost certain - it just needs to be confirmed by the procedures. The DPP has a pro-independence party stance. As the United States and Japan are stepping up efforts to contain China, it is worth our attention what interactions between mainland China and Taiwan will happen when the DPP is in government again. After the KMT is voted out, the Beijing authorities will have to deal with a new situation.

國民黨失格救選舉 早知今日何必當初

明年1月台灣大選之後，蔡英文帶領民進黨勝選，台灣再度出現政黨輪替的局面，在島內島外幾乎沒有什麼懸念。然而，在距離投票尚有約100日之際，國民黨突然要撤換原來代表競逐總統大位的洪秀柱，由黨主席朱立倫頂上。這次陣前易將，對國民黨選情帶來多大提振作用，尚待觀察；不過，事態反映國民黨進退失據，以舉黨之力迫退一名「小女子」，失格之處，或許要付出代價。另外，今次事態會否促使國民黨進一步分裂，改變台灣的政治板塊和生態，特別值得注意。

過去7年，國民黨主政台灣，民衆支持急速流失，這在去年底七合一地方選舉，民進黨大勝、國民黨慘敗顯露出來。民進黨氣勢如虹，對於明年總統大選，國民黨內重量級人馬對參選都推來推去，洪秀柱表態參選，聲言「拋磚引玉」，迫使黨內頭面人物現身。只是，洪秀柱走完整個黨內初選程序，符合參選資格，所謂黨內大佬仍然神隱，無論洪秀柱有意栽花抑或無心插柳，總之今年7月19日，國民黨全國代表大會同意洪秀柱代表國民黨參選總統；這些法定程序，都是在朱立倫主持下完成。昨日的國民黨中常會啟動「換柱」操作，通過召開臨時全國黨代會，預期月內會完成更換總統提名人，改由朱立倫出選總統。

當日包括朱立倫在內的國民黨重量級人馬，在勝選機會甚微面前，從個人令譽考量，不肯為黨的利益作出承擔；洪秀柱歪打正着成為總統提名人，競選工程進行了近3個月之後，現在突然要將她迫退。對此，不僅洪秀柱表明堅持參選到底，島內不少人對國民黨罔顧程序公義，「欺壓」洪秀柱，都不以為然。國民黨今次做法，被認為偏離了同理心，而且黨內一大堆「大男人」與洪秀柱這位「小女子」的對比，放在台灣社會的民風、民情審視，或許有更多人認同洪秀柱。國民黨在此事上，失去了作為堂堂大黨、百年老店的應有格調，民衆對弱者的同情和對出爾反爾的反彈，會否在投票時表露出來，值得注意。

現在國民黨的亂局，最高興的肯定是民進黨。國民黨分崩離析、各自盤算，對照民進黨團結一致、上下一心，優劣立見，勝負只待完成程序而已。有台獨黨綱的民進黨再度執政，在美國、日本加強圍堵中國的形勢下，台灣與大陸將出現什麼狀態的互動，備受關注。這是國民黨掉失台灣政權之後，北京要面對和處理的新局面。