人口老化增政府承擔 擴稅基應對財政需要

<轉載自2013年2月27日 明報 社評>

 

近日，政府消息人士透露，雖然說財政司長曾俊華在本年度財政預算案不會寬減免稅額，以免有更多人跌出稅網，不過，也沒有迹象顯示曾俊華會提出稅制改革。人口老化是清晰明確的趨勢，數年後納稅人口開始逐漸減少，而賣地和印花稅收入受經濟周期影響，波動較大，但人口老化必然令政府在護老、醫療等開支增加，政府必須未雨綢繆，研議改革稅制，擴闊稅基，以應對必然增加的財政需要。

享福利人口愈來愈多 納稅人口將愈來愈少

 

現在，本港勞動人口約370萬，根據稅務局的資料，2011/12年度薪俸稅納稅人共有152萬，有學者在討論長者生活津貼時，曾經不計算其他稅項，只以津貼開支除以納稅人口作比較，得出在沿用的高齡津貼政策下，2013年每名納稅人平均每年負擔約4679元津貼開支，換言之，每名納稅人每年正在支持一名長者約4個月生果金，加入新的長者生活津貼，每名納稅人將平均每年負擔7580元。可見單就長者生活津貼，隨着人口老化，將來會有更多長者有資格申請，而津貼款額日後很大可能按通脹調整，納稅人的負擔就更重。

 

2012年的納稅人口，佔20至64歲勞動人口的30.8%，按這個比例，2018年納稅人口會稍微上升3萬至4萬人，之後因為人口老化而持續減少，津貼開支卻逐步增加，這個「減少」與「增加」的背道而馳，數年後除非加稅，否則政府可收薪俸稅會相應減少。所以，擴闊稅基使更多人納入稅網，固然需要研議，不過，在此之前，政府首要保持現有規模的納稅人口，不宜提高免稅額或寬減讓更多人跌出稅網。因為稅項易減難加，現在若寬免讓一些人毋須交稅，他日就較難重新把他們納入稅網。

 

政府稅務收入主要來自薪俸稅、利得稅、印花稅、投資收入及賣地收入，其中薪俸稅和利得稅較容易預測，其他稅項與經濟周期有密切關係。目前，賣地收入約佔政府總收入約15%，比例不算太高，不過，賣地收入的不確定性，卻牽動着政府的理財哲學，甚或影響推行政策和長遠規劃。近年，賣地所得佔政府收入有低至約2%，也有高至15%，差距之大，具體反映在財政司長經常大幅度預測錯誤，而「賣地收入好，政府財政佳」，對於政府實行高地價政策，無疑有很大誘因。

 

另外，由於印花稅、賣地和投資收入的不確定性，使政府不敢貿然增加經常開支，但是連年錯估收入而出現的巨額盈餘，卻激發了要求政府派糖的訴求，結果是浪費資源，不但未能紓解問題，反而強化了深層次矛盾。所以，若政府改革稅制，減輕不確定稅項對財政收入的影響，創造出常態的財政環境，或許更有利於政府施政和推動長遠政策。

 

未雨綢繆 開拓稅源

 

政府對人口老化的財政承擔必然愈來愈多，需要穩定的財政收入來應對，即使現在經濟環境好，財政又有盈餘，但是政府還是應該高瞻遠矚，研議改革稅制，擴闊稅基。例如：

 

（1）加徵股票交易印花稅。過去，政府以跟隨外國趨勢為名，逐步減收股票交易印花稅，現在還剩0.1%，政府應該慶幸未全面取消這個稅項，現在宜研議適當增收，以股市每日成交數百億元計算，增加0.1%就是可觀的收入。股票市場交易活躍，許多人都得益，政府在這方面分一杯羹，是天經地義的事。

 

（2）開徵奢侈品銷售稅。本港高收入一族購買奢侈品，不會吝嗇於多付一點稅，而不少內地旅客來港掃奢侈貨品，只要稅率恰當，例如5%，又可獲50%退稅安排，實際稅率只是2.5%，相信不會打擊他們來港掃貨的意欲。

 

今日發表的預算案，即使沒有改革稅制、擴闊稅基的內容，我們仍然期望政府正視這個問題，盡快把此事提上議事日程。因為人口老化，政府怎樣才有穩定而足夠的資源應對，是政府需要回答的問題和善盡的責任。

 

Editorial

Broader Tax Base Needed as Population Ages

 

GOVERNMENT SOURCES said recently that while Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah will not offer tax breaks and leave more people out of the tax net, it is unlikely that he will propose any tax reforms. However, the government must plan ahead and explore ways to reform the tax system since the aging of the population is certain to lead to spending increases associated with elder care and medical care.

Today, Hong Kong has a working population of about 3.7 million. According to statistics released by the Inland Revenue Department, the number of taxpayers totalled 1.52 million in 2011/12. In his discussion of the Old Age Living Allowance (OALA) scheme, an academic, setting aside the government's other sources of revenue, divided the OALA expenditure by the number of taxpayers, which showed that in 2013 taxpayers contribute an average of $4,679 each to the expenditure. In other words, a taxpayer pays a senior citizen about four months' "fruit money". And, with the introduction of the OALA, the amount payable to a senior citizen by an average taxpayer increases to $7,580 a year. As the population ages, more and more people will qualify for the allowances, imposing an increasingly heavy burden on taxpayers.

 

Taxpayers in the year 2012 constituted 30.8 percent of the working population aged between 20 and 64. Calculations based on this ratio show that, by 2018, the number of taxpayers will have increased by 30,000 to 40,000 people, after which the number will continue to decrease because of population aging. However, allowances for the elderly will continue to increase. This increase will go hand in hand with the decline in taxpayers. Unless tax increases are introduced in the next few years, revenues from salaries tax will decrease accordingly. It is therefore necessary to explore ways to broaden the tax base and bring more people into the tax net. And before this can be done, the government must strive to maintain the present size of the tax-paying population. Tax allowances should not be expanded to leave more people out of the tax net.

 

Government revenues come principally from salaries tax, profits tax, stamp duty, investment income, and land sales. Of these, revenues from salaries tax and profits tax are more easily predictable, while revenues from other sources are closely intertwined with the ups and downs of the economy. As revenues from stamp duty, land sales, and investment income are quite unpredictable, the government is understandably reluctant to commit itself to increasing recurrent expenditure.

 

The government's financial commitments are certain to increase as the population ages, to deal with which steady sources of revenue are needed. Although the present economic environment is good, the government should still be far-sighted enough to explore ways to reform the tax system and broaden the tax base. For example:

 

(1) Increase in stamp duty on stock transfers. Brisk trading on the stock market means that many people have made money. There is no reason why the government should not have a share of the profits.

 

(2) Introduction of a sales tax on luxury goods. High-income people will not begrudge paying a little more as sales tax when buying luxury goods.

 

Even if the budget announced today (February 27) does not touch on the reform of the tax system and the broadening of the tax base, we hope the government will come to grips with the issue. As the population ages, how is the government to get a steady and sufficient supply of resources to cope with the problems involved? This is a question the government has to answer.

 

明報社評 2013.02.27﹕人口老化增政府承擔 擴稅基應對財政需要

 

近日，政府消息人士透露，雖然說財政司長曾俊華在本年度財政預算案不會寬減免稅額，以免有更多人跌出稅網，不過，也沒有迹象顯示曾俊華會提出稅制改革。但人口老化必然令政府在護老、醫療等開支增加，政府必須未雨綢繆，研議改革稅制。

 

現在，本港勞動人口約370萬，根據稅務局的資料，2011/12年度薪俸稅納稅人共有152萬，有學者在討論長者生活津貼時，曾經不計算其他稅項，以津貼開支除以納稅人口，得出2013年每名納稅人平均每年負擔約4679元津貼開支，換言之，每名納稅人每年正在支持一名長者約4個月生果金，加入新的長者生活津貼，每名納稅人將平均每年負擔7580元。隨着人口老化，將來會有更多長者有資格申請，納稅人的負擔就更重。

 

2012年的納稅人口，佔20至64歲勞動人口的30.8%，按這個比例，2018年納稅人口會稍微上升3萬至4萬人，之後因為人口老化而持續減少，津貼開支卻逐步增加，這個「減少」與「增加」的背道而馳，數年後除非加稅，否則政府可收薪俸稅會相應減少。所以，擴闊稅基使更多人納入稅網，固然需要研議，不過，在此之前，政府首要保持現有規模的納稅人口，不宜提高免稅額或寬減讓更多人跌出稅網。

 

政府稅務收入主要來自薪俸稅、利得稅、印花稅、投資收入及賣地收入，其中薪俸稅和利得稅較容易預測，其他稅項與經濟周期有密切關係。由於印花稅、賣地和投資收入的不確定性，使政府不敢貿然增加經常開支。

 

政府對人口老化的財政承擔必然愈來愈多，需要穩定的財政收入來應對，即使現在經濟環境好，但是政府還是應該高瞻遠矚，研議改革稅制，擴闊稅基。例如：

 

（1）加徵股票交易印花稅。股票市場交易活躍，許多人都得益，政府在這方面分一杯羹，是天經地義的事。

 

（2）開徵奢侈品銷售稅。高收入一族購買奢侈品，不會吝嗇於多付一點稅。

今日發表的預算案，即使沒有改革稅制、擴闊稅基的內容，我們仍然期望政府正視這個問題。因為人口老化，政府怎樣才有穩定而足夠的資源應對，是政府需要回答的問題。