高齡海嘯悄然逼近 安老工作勿再蹉跎

<轉載自2017年7月28日 明報 社評>

本港人口急劇老化，85歲或以上高齡長者人口增長尤其迅速。政府估算目前高齡長者約為17萬，預料到2041年將急增至51萬。勞福局長羅致光形容，10年後香港將迎來「高齡海嘯」，必須未雨綢繆，若不盡快落實《安老服務計劃方案》，社會將無法應付這場「海嘯」的衝擊。政府為了解決安老服務業人手不足，適量輸入外勞實屬無可避免，然而「高齡海嘯」對社會的衝擊，並非單靠加強安老服務就能應對，政府需要有通盤策略，除了勞福和醫療部門外，還需要創科和商經部門攜手應對，不能頭痛醫頭、腳痛醫腳。

港老化危機不遜日本 輸入看護外勞難迴避

根據國際標準，65歲或以上長者佔總人口比率超過7％，即屬「高齡化社會」（ageing society），若超過14％則為「高齡社會」（aged society）；如果超越20％，就是「超高齡社會」（super-aged society），日本正是其一（比率逾23％）。回看本港數字，65歲以上人口現已達到115萬，佔總人口近16%，屬於高齡社會，鑑於目前人口最多的年齡層是45歲至59歲的一群，意味未來10多年65歲以上長者人口將激增，步入「超高齡社會」之期並不遙遠。研究顯示，2041年本港長者人口將增至248.9萬，加上少子化的趨勢，未來香港人口老化問題嚴重程度不遜日本，可是社會的危機意識明顯不足。政府官員和社會各界必須做好準備，應付「高齡海嘯」的來臨。

誠然，由於醫療保健水平提升，現今不少65歲以上「青壯長者」（young-old）仍然精力充沛，近年日本美國等地勞動市場其中一個主要趨勢，就是年逾65歲的高齡勞工有所增加，然而歲月催人老，很難想像年逾八旬的「高齡長者」仍能活躍於職場。「高齡長者」自理能力下降，加上各種老人疾病，對安老、護理和醫療服務需求殷切，可是本港的安老服務停滯不前，政府長期未有積極處理，相關長遠規劃工作停頓超過廿年，直至3年前才重新啟動，蹉跎歲月叫人扼腕。近日羅致光表示，上任後首要任務就是盡快落實上月發表的《安老服務計劃方案》，希望追回錯過了的時間，其中一個必須處理的議題，就是安老服務業人手不足。

據估算，目前家務助理等安老服務業工種，人手短缺超過一成，有資助院舍也坦言不夠人用，本港勞動力人口2018年見頂後逐步下降，基層勞工減幅尤其顯著，人手不足情况恐將變本加厲，然而另一邊廂，最需要院舍或長期照顧服務的85歲或以上長者數目則持續上升，30年後將比現時增加4.2倍，若不輸入適量看護外勞，根本無法滿足社會需求。據悉政府正考慮放寬讓資助院舍申請輸入外勞，有勞工界人士擔心本地員工薪酬會被壓低，然而一個有遠見的政府，必須以長遠社會利益為依歸，輸入外勞計劃只要好好拿揑分寸，勞工界應當諒解。

安老服務升級靠創科 政府應扮演推動角色

當然，政府要應付「高齡海嘯」狂潮，還需多管齊下，輸入外勞並非解決安老問題的萬靈丹。以台灣為例，當地也是全球「老得最快」的地區之一，預料10年後也將變成「超高齡社會」。缺乏照顧長者專業人手，成為台灣社會一大難題，雖然已有引入外籍看護，可是仍不足以應付。當地一些論者便指出，為了滿足安老醫療服務需要，必須借助創新科技，迎上「工業4.0」的發展大趨勢，善用大數據、自動化和人工智能（AI），推動安老服務業升級轉型，由可偵測心跳脈搏等健康情况便攜裝置，到遙距看護、陪伴機械人以至機械強化提升日常活動能力，全都可以派上用場。特區政府應好好思考在這方面如何扮演推動角色。

《安老服務計劃方案》就如何提升安老服務質素，以及加強在服務供應、土地、人手和財政資源等規劃，提出20項建議，包括加強社區照顧服務、預留更多地方作安老設施、加強資訊科技應用等，方向均屬正確。可是要讓長者能夠有優質生活，政府還需下更多工夫，例如推出具體政策鼓勵銀髮產業和相關創科發展，而非僅僅割裂地推出一些針對長者需要的產品和服務，諸如銀色債券和「長者屋」等。10年前安老事務委員會已提出發展銀髮市場，然而一直只聞樓梯響。政府面對「高齡海嘯」，不能單靠勞福部門獨挑大樑，還需要跨部門協作，創科部門和商經部門均應參與其中。

Improvement of elderly services allows no room for delay

HONG KONG'S population is ageing rapidly. The population of those aged 85 or above is growing at a particularly alarming rate.

According to international standards, a society is regarded as an "ageing society" if people aged 65 or above make up more than 7 per cent of the total population. It is an "aged society" if old people make up more than 14 per cent of the total population, and a "super-aged society" if they make up more than 20 per cent. Japan, with the ratio higher than 23 per cent, is a super-aged society. As for Hong Kong, there are now 1.15 million people who are aged 65 or above, and they constitute almost 16 per cent of the total population. So Hong Kong is an aged society. Given the fact that people aged between 45 and 59 are now the biggest age group in Hong Kong, people over 65 years old are set to increase sharply over the next decade or so, meaning that it will not be long before Hong Kong becomes a super-aged society. Research shows that Hong Kong's elderly population will reach 2.489 million in 2041. Coupled with the phenomenon that people are having less children, Hong Kong's ageing population problem could be as serious as that of Japan. That said, society does not have enough awareness of the crisis. Government officials and different sectors of society must be well prepared for the tsunami of the ageing problem.

It is true that, thanks to improvements in healthcare, many "young-old" people who are aged over 65 are still energetic. In fact, there has been an important trend in labour markets in Japan and the United States in recent years that the numbers of elderly workers who are over 65 years old have been growing. That said, it is difficult to imagine that an octogenarian can remain active in the labour market. Aged people lose their ability to take care of themselves and are afflicted with all kinds of diseases, and as such are in pressing need of elderly care, nursing and medical services. However, there has long been a lack of improvement in elderly services. For a long time, the government has not been dealing with the issue actively, and long-term planning related to the issue — which had been put off for more than twenty years — did not get restarted until three years ago. That waste of time is very regrettable. Law Chi-kwong has recently said that, in order to make up for lost time, his first job after taking up his post is to implement as soon as possible the Elderly Services Programme Plan published last month. One of the issues that must be dealt with is labour shortages in the industry of elderly services.

According to estimates, there is a larger than 10 per cent shortage in positions in elderly services (such as domestic helpers), with many subsidised nursing homes complaining about being understaffed. Hong Kong's working population is set for a gradual decrease after reaching a height next year. Jobs at grassroots level will be affected most, aggravating the problem of labour shortages. On the other hand, the number of old people aged 85 or above, who are most in need of nursing homes or long-term care, will have risen by 4.2 times thirty years later. It will be impossible to cope with the needs of society if an appropriate number of foreign workers are not brought in. It is understood that the government is considering relaxing the restraints on nursing homes' applications for foreign workers. Though some people in the labour sector have expressed concern that such a new rule will bring down local employees' salaries, a government with vision should be guided by society's long term interests. The labour sector will understand if the plan of importing labour is exercised with circumspection.

高齡海嘯悄然逼近 安老工作勿再蹉跎

本港人口急劇老化，85歲或以上高齡長者人口增長尤其迅速。

根據國際標準，65歲或以上長者佔總人口比率超過7％，即屬「高齡化社會」（ageing society），若超過14％則為「高齡社會」（aged society）；如果超越20％，就是「超高齡社會」（super-aged society），日本正是其一（比率逾23％）。回看本港數字，65歲以上人口現已達到115萬，佔總人口近16%，屬於高齡社會，鑑於目前人口最多的年齡層是45歲至59歲的一群，意味未來10多年65歲以上長者人口將激增，步入「超高齡社會」之期並不遙遠。研究顯示，2041年本港長者人口將增至248.9萬，加上少子化的趨勢，未來香港人口老化問題嚴重程度不遜日本，可是社會的危機意識明顯不足。政府官員和社會各界必須做好準備，應付「高齡海嘯」的來臨。

誠然，由於醫療保健水平提升，現今不少65歲以上「青壯長者」（young-old）仍然精力充沛，近年日本美國等地勞動市場其中一個主要趨勢，就是年逾65歲的高齡勞工有所增加，然而，很難想像年逾八旬的「高齡長者」仍能活躍於職場。「高齡長者」自理能力下降，加上各種老人疾病，對安老、護理和醫療服務需求殷切，可是本港的安老服務停滯不前，政府長期未有積極處理，相關長遠規劃工作停頓超過廿年，直至3年前才重新啟動，蹉跎歲月叫人扼腕。近日羅致光表示，上任後首要任務就是盡快落實上月發表的《安老服務計劃方案》，希望追回錯過了的時間，其中一個必須處理的議題，就是安老服務業人手不足。

據估算，目前家務助理等安老服務業工種，人手短缺超過一成，有資助院舍也坦言不夠人用，本港勞動力人口2018年見頂後逐步下降，基層勞工減幅尤其顯著，人手不足情况恐將變本加厲，然而另一邊廂，最需要院舍或長期照顧服務的85歲或以上長者數目則持續上升，30年後將比現時增加4.2倍，若不輸入適量看護外勞，根本無法滿足社會需求。據悉政府正考慮放寬讓資助院舍申請輸入外勞，有勞工界人士擔心本地員工薪酬會被壓低，然而一個有遠見的政府，必須以長遠社會利益為依歸，輸入外勞計劃只要好好拿揑分寸，勞工界應當諒解。