經濟平穩有隱憂 改革開放須深化

<轉載自2017年6月23日 明報 社評>

2017年夏季達沃斯論壇明日將在大連揭幕，國務院總理李克強將出席開幕式並發表演講。去年在這個論壇上，李克強向世人保證中國經濟不會「硬着陸」，新動能將撐起未來中國經濟新天地。今年的演講，人們期待他對中國進一步的改革開放許下新的承諾。

剛剛公布的5月份數據顯示，中國經濟持續平穩向好，所以，從國際貨幣基金組織（IMF），到經濟合作與發展組織（OECD），乃至國際金融巨擘摩根大通都紛紛調高了對今年中國經濟增長的預期目標，達到6.6%至6.7%。

數據顯示持續向好 債務偏高風險仍大

不過，對於下半年中國經濟走勢，國內外卻看法分歧。上個月，國際著名評級機構穆迪（Moody's）降低了中國的主權信用評級，其中一條理由就是「直接及間接的政府債務以及其他社會負債將持續增長，損害中國的信用」。雖然中國官方指穆迪的評估方法「不恰當」，高估了中國的困難，低估了中國政府的能力；不過，就在上周，3個月前還認為中國債務「總體可控」的IMF前副總裁朱民也指出，中國債務水平總體偏高，全國有15%企業靠借新債還舊債度日，金融風險仍處於高位，如果遇到外部衝擊，就會有大麻煩。

債務問題一直是困擾中國經濟的一大隱憂，和朱民一樣，今年3月還堅稱中國總體債務水平不算高的國家金融與發展實驗室理事長李揚上周也大聲疾呼，對於地方政府債務的「野蠻生長」不能聽之任之。他披露，截至去年年底，中國地方政府的債務是17.5萬億到21.3萬億元人民幣，佔國民生產總值GDP的比率為23%至28%，因此，他認為有必要「硬化」地方政府的預算約束。

從中國的經濟增長率和政府總體資產角度看，當前的債務或未到「爆煲」邊緣。但值得注意的是，一些地方出現了違法違規舉債苗頭，而且花樣翻新，如變相擔保、政府購買工程、承諾PPP（Public-Private Partnership）項目固定收益、對PPP項目保底回購、明股實債等。長此以往，將危及財政與金融穩定。

中國政府已經意識到了這些潛在風險，並着手加強監管，本月初，財政部發布了《關於堅決制止地方以政府購買服務名義違法違規融資的通知》，嚴打地方各種違法違規舉債融資行為。同時，銀監會近日要求各銀行篩查包括萬達、海航集團、復星、安邦保險等多家民營企業授信及風險分析，顯示這些在海外一度瘋狂掃貨的明星企業，已被納入當局潛在風險的重點監控名單。中國人民銀行行長周小川上周在2017年上海陸家嘴論壇上就表示，「金融如不穩定，往往出大亂子」。

加強監管固然重要 深化改革方為治本

對付潛在的金融風險，除了加強監管之外，深化改革才是治本之策。上周公布的由朱民擔任顧問的《中國金融風險與穩定報告》就建議，當局要提高對局部風險的容忍度，並在此前提下規範金融市場秩序。《報告》指出，美國1981年以來平均違約率為1.69%，2009年金融危機期間達到最高的5.71%。從全球來看，1981年以來債券違約率平均為1.38%。只有極不發達或由政府信用主導的市場，才會長期沒有違約。合理穩定的違約率，其實正是債券市場成熟的標誌。《報告》認為，如果要取得長治久安的金融穩定，需要跳出金融市場局部均衡的思維方式，正視經濟轉型的挑戰，勇於自我改革和創新，即以改革來求真穩定。

對於以改革求穩定、消除金融隱患的呼聲，當局積極回應。人行行長周小川就表示，金融業應繼續加大競爭和開放，「個別人從自身利益出發，主張對金融業進行保護，等成長壯大了再開放，再參與國際競爭。各國經驗（包括我國自身經驗）都表明，保護易導致懶惰、財務軟約束、尋租等問題，反而使競爭力更弱，損害行業發展，市場和機構不健康、不穩定」。

今年是中共十九大召開之年，在內地穩定成為壓倒一切的中心任務。但是經濟的穩定增長與金融風險的防控，單靠「嚴防死守」未必能竟全功，沒有進一步的改革開放措施配套，很難保證下半年經濟不出現意料中的下滑趨勢。特別在國際局勢風雲變幻、中美關係陰晴不定之際，不主動出擊更會風聲鶴唳。因此，在明日的達沃斯年會開幕式上，人們期待李克強總理除對全球作信心喊話之餘，能在進一步改革開放方面，描繪出更具體的願景。

Need to deepen reform and opening-up

THE 2017 SUMMER DAVOS opens tomorrow (June 27) in Dalian. Premier of the State Council Li Keqiang is to attend its opening ceremony and deliver there a speech. Last year at the forum, he assured the world that China's economy would not "hard-land" and new momentum would prop up its new arena. This year people expect him to make new pledges concerning China's further reform and opening-up.

Views differ at home and abroad about how the Chinese economy will trend in the second half of this year. Last month Moody's, a world-famous rating agency, downgraded China's sovereign rating. A reason why it has done so is that direct government, indirect and economy-wide debt will continue to rise, signalling an erosion of China's credit profile.

Judging from the growth rate of China's economy and its government assets, its debt problem may not have verged on "eruption". However, it is worth attention that, in some places, signs have appeared of loans being made unlawfully or irregularly. Many new tricks have been devised — virtual guarantees, governments buying projects, pledges of fixed returns of public-private partnership (PPP) projects, PPP project buybacks at guaranteed prices and debts in the guise of shares. It will mar fiscal and financial stability for things to remain long as they are.

To cope with potential financial risks, it is necessary to step up regulation. However, only by deepening reform can such maladies be cured once and for all. It is recommended in the 2017 China Financial Risk Stability Report (which came out last week and in respect of which Zhu Min (who was formerly deputy manager director of the International Monetary Fund) served as an adviser) that the authorities should have greater tolerance for local risks and on that basis keep financial markets in order. Only in an extremely underdeveloped market or one in which government credit dominates can there be a long default-free period. A reasonable, stable default rate actually characterises a mature bond market. It is opined in the report that, to achieve long-term financial stability, it is necessary to transcend the financial-market local-balance way of thinking, face squarely the challenges economic restructuring may pose and be so bold as to self-reform and innovate. In other words, it is necessary to seek true stability by introducing reforms.

The authorities have proactively responded to calls for introducing reforms with a view to maintaining stability and doing away with potential financial maladies. Governor of the People's Bank of China Zhou Xiaochuan has said competition and openness should continue to increase in the financial sector, adding, "Some, having regard to their own interests, advocate the protection of financial institutions, saying they should not take part in global competition until they have grown in strength. What has happened in many countries (including our own) shows protection tends to breed such problems as laziness, soft financial restraints and rent-seeking. That will instead reduce competitiveness, mar the development of the sector and make markets and institutions unhealthy and unstable."

This year is to see the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. It is therefore a central task of overriding importance on the mainland to maintain stability. However, it may not be totally possible to ensure steady economic growth and avert financial risks solely by taking strict precautions and putting in place strong defences. It is hard to make sure that the economy will not appear to slide as expected in the second half of this year without taking new measures of reform and opening-up. In particular, as the situation is changeable in the world and Sino-US relations alternate between amity and enmity, it is likelier to breed danger not to take the offensive. Therefore, Li Keqiang is expected not only to make calls of confidence to the world tomorrow when he speaks at the opening ceremony of this year's Summer Davos but also to describe then concretely China's vision of its further reform and opening-up.

經濟平穩有隱憂 改革開放須深化

2017年夏季達沃斯論壇明日（6月27日）將在大連揭幕，國務院總理李克強將出席開幕式並發表演講。去年在這個論壇上，李克強向世人保證中國經濟不會「硬着陸」，新動能將撐起未來中國經濟新天地。今年的演講，人們期待他對中國進一步的改革開放許下新的承諾。

對於下半年中國經濟走勢，國內外卻看法分歧。上個月，國際著名評級機構穆迪（Moody's）降低了中國的主權信用評級，其中一條理由就是「直接及間接的政府債務以及其他社會負債將持續增長，損害中國的信用」。

從中國的經濟增長率和政府總體資產角度看，當前的債務或未到「爆煲」邊緣。但值得注意的是，一些地方出現了違法違規舉債苗頭，而且花樣翻新，如變相擔保、政府購買工程、承諾PPP（Public-Private Partnership）項目固定收益、對PPP項目保底回購、明股實債等。長此以往，將危及財政與金融穩定。

對付潛在的金融風險，除了加強監管之外，深化改革才是治本之策。上周公布的由朱民擔任顧問的《中國金融風險與穩定報告》就建議，當局要提高對局部風險的容忍度，並在此前提下規範金融市場秩序。只有極不發達或由政府信用主導的市場，才會長期沒有違約。合理穩定的違約率，其實正是債券市場成熟的標誌。《報告》認為，如果要取得長治久安的金融穩定，需要跳出金融市場局部均衡的思維方式，正視經濟轉型的挑戰，勇於自我改革和創新，即以改革來求真穩定。

對於以改革求穩定、消除金融隱患的呼聲，當局積極回應。人行行長周小川就表示，金融業應繼續加大競爭和開放，「個別人從自身利益出發，主張對金融業進行保護，等成長壯大了再開放，再參與國際競爭。各國經驗（包括我國自身經驗）都表明，保護易導致懶惰、財務軟約束、尋租等問題，反而使競爭力更弱，損害行業發展，市場和機構不健康、不穩定」。

今年是中共十九大召開之年，在內地穩定成為壓倒一切的中心任務。但是經濟的穩定增長與金融風險的防控，單靠「嚴防死守」未必能竟全功，沒有進一步的改革開放措施配套，很難保證下半年經濟不出現意料中的下滑趨勢。特別在國際局勢風雲變幻、中美關係陰晴不定之際，不主動出擊更會風聲鶴唳。因此，在明日的達沃斯年會開幕式上，人們期待李克強總理除對全球作信心喊話之餘，能在進一步改革開放方面，描繪出更具體的願景。