廣東出口負增長 香港經濟響警鐘

<轉載自2018年7月23日 明報 社評>

今年上半年廣東出口1.91萬億元（人民幣，下同），下降3.3%，雖然同期全國的出口仍然有4.9%的增長，但廣東出口額佔全國四分之一，廣東出口出現負增長，在貿易戰愈演愈烈的情况下，敲響了中國全年出口的警鐘。廣東與香港唇齒相依，廣東出口形勢逆轉，對香港的貿易與航運等行業必然會產生影響。廣東省早已策劃經濟結構轉型，並刻意提高與「一帶一路」沿線國家貿易，仍然受到貿易戰重創，香港經濟轉型刻不容緩。

過分依賴加工貿易 面臨低成本國家競爭

廣東省對外貿易歷來一枝獨秀，去年進出口總值6.82萬億元，較上年增長8%，出口4.22萬億元，增長6.7%，連續幾十年居全國之冠。然而，廣東的對外貿易存在嚴重的結構問題，一是過分依賴加工貿易，廣東開放改革始於香港工業北移，依靠來料加工和來樣加工，10年前的出口總值，仍然有一半依靠加工貿易，去年降低至37%，但還佔相當大比重。加工業依賴廉價勞動力，附加值低，在勞動力成本不斷提高的情况下，即使沒有貿易戰，本身也在面對東南亞勞動力低成本國家的競爭，今年上半年出口大幅下降，其中的重要因素是勞動密集型產品出口下降近18%。過分依賴加工業正好解釋了同樣受到貿易戰威脅、緊隨廣東的江蘇和浙江，還分別保持7.5%和6%的增長。

廣東出口突顯疲態的另一個重要因素是機電產品出口增長放緩，機電產品出口佔廣東出口總額的73.2%，但上半年增長只有1.6%。這個低升幅，還有一個難關在前，美國宣布加徵關稅的清單中，機電產品佔一半，貿易商十分清楚加徵關稅的影響，紛紛搶閘趕在加徵關稅前進貨，一旦實施加徵，廣東機電產品出口會進一步受到打擊而雪上加霜。

上半年機電產品出口佔中國出口總值58.6%，對美國出口機電產品佔所有機電產品出口的六成，貿易戰持續升溫，對全國的出口將會影響很大。然而，機電產品中還可以細分，機械設備等大型機電產品附加值高，廣東曾經引以為傲的小家電附加值較低，雖曾為出口增長立下汗馬功勞，但成也蕭何敗也蕭何，小家電等產品因科技含量低易被取代，生產基地轉移到成本較低的國家是遲早之事。

廣東出口疲軟，但全國上半年出口仍有4.9%的增長，這個數字固然有趕在美國加徵關稅前趕出口的因素，但也得益於貿易多元化的部署，中國與東盟的貿易總值上半年增長11%，跟中東歐16國的增長達到14.7%，對整體出口增長貢獻很大，可以部分彌補對美國出口可能下降的影響。令人擔憂的是，廣東上半年對「一帶一路」沿線國家的貿易總值增長只有1.7%，遠低於全國的增幅，說明廣東對貿易多元化的轉型還有待加強。

廣東對外貿易形勢響起警鐘，勞動密集型出口產品面臨激烈競爭，高科技產品尚未成形，中美貿易戰影響即將加劇，可謂腹背受敵。雖然如此，廣東無論在向高科技轉型和發展「一帶一路」沿線國家貿易，兩方面都並非孤軍作戰。機電產品雖然會受中美貿易戰嚴重威脅，但中國有完整的工業體系，競爭對手雖然生產成本低廉，但科研力量缺乏，工人質素也不及中國，難以形成集群效應，要搶走高附加值產品的市場並非一朝一夕可以做到。更何况全國投放在研發方面的資源，是其他新興國家無法媲美的，深圳在高科技和創新科技的研發力量，近年異軍突起，成績有目共睹，廣東對外貿易的轉型升級，相信指日可待。

「一帶一路」是國家發展戰略，不但在外交層面不斷推進，還有很多措施保證落實，比如開設幾十條通往歐洲的貨運火車路線，都是途徑「一帶一路」國家，江蘇和浙江出口增加已經從中受惠，目前銳意打通廣西和雲南通往東盟的交通基建，將來廣東也可得益。廣東在外貿多元化方面，只要加以重視，轉型的成功機會仍然很高。

漣漪效應波及香港 多元發展應快馬加鞭

香港在應對中美貿易戰方面，官員強調轉口貿易受影響幅度不會很大，但廣東出口出現負增長的影響和對外貿易的前景，足可為香港借鑑。由於廣東外貿增長放緩，香港的貿易與航運行業將會受到即時衝擊，金融與旅遊、零售行業也將受漣漪效應所波及。廣東提出並推動經濟轉型比香港早得多，仍然未如理想，香港在經濟發展多元化方面，應要快馬加鞭。廣東在全國工業與高科技發展的鏈條當中，從中受惠是時間問題，大力開展跟「一帶一路」沿線國家的貿易關係，也有國家體制的保證，香港要融入國家發展大局，不能繼續議而不決。貿易戰為廣東經濟轉型敲響警鐘，但可以成為加速改革的催化劑，香港對此不能掉以輕心。

Warnings from the negative growth in Guangdong's exports

GUANGDONG's exports dropped by 3.3% to 1.91 trillion yuan in the first half of the year. Although the whole country's exports still experienced an increase of 4.9% in the same period, given the fact that Guangdong's exports comprise one quarter of the country's sum, the negative growth in the province's exports is indeed cause for alarm about China's yearly exports amid the escalating trade war. Because of the interdependence between Guangdong and Hong Kong, a downturn in Guangdong's exports is bound to have an impact on Hong Kong's trade and sectors like the shipping industry. Despite the fact that Guangdong has long been planning to reconstruct its economy and has been consciously promoting trade with Belt and Road countries, it has still become a casualty of the trade war. Hong Kong's economic restructuring is now an urgent task that can no longer be delayed.

Guangdong has long outperformed all the other provinces in external trade. Last year, its total exports and imports rose by 8% yearly to 6.82 trillion yuan. Its exports grew by 6.7% to 4.22 trillion yuan, securing its longstanding position as the top province of the country for decades. However, serious structural problems exist in Guangdong's external trade. Firstly, it has been too dependent on processing trade. Since its opening up and reform was kicked off by the northward migration of Hong Kong's industries, Guangdong's trade has mostly relied on processing with imported/supplied materials or processing with imported/supplied samples. Even ten years ago, half of its total export value came from processing trade. Although that proportion lowered to 37% last year, it was still rather significant. Processing trade is reliant on the supply of cheap labour, with little added value in the process. The costs of local labour continuing to rise, Guangdong was already facing intense competition from Southeast Asian countries of low labour costs even before the trade war. In fact, the major factor behind the big drop of its exports in the first half of this year was the nearly 18% slump in exports of labour intensive products.

Another important reason for the abrupt sluggishness in Guangdong's exports was the decelerating export growth of electromechanical products. Accounting for 73.2% of the province's total export value, the export of electromechanical products grew by only 1.6% in the first half of this year. Worse still, after the anaemic growth, there is another hurdle ahead. Of the goods affected by the US's new tariffs, half are electromechanical products. Traders knew well about the impact of the new tariffs and scrambled to import those goods before the new levies. Once the new tariffs take effect, we may foresee even greater blows to the export of Guangdong's electromechanical products.

Talking about Hong Kong in the face of the Sino-US trade war, government officials have stressed that the city's entrepot trade will not be affected much. However, Hong Kong should draw lessons from the negative growth in Guangdong's exports and the outlook for its external trade. The declining growth in Guangdong's external trade will deal a blow to Hong Kong's trade and shipping industry immediately, further triggering a ripple effect on its financial, tourism and retail sectors. Guangdong had proposed and pushed ahead with economic restructuring long before Hong Kong did, but its results have still been far from ideal. Hong Kong must hurry through its own diversification of economic development and spur the horse at full speed.

Guangdong has benefited from the timing of the country's development of industries and high technology. The establishment of trade relations with Belt and Road countries, which Guangdong has pursued vigorously, is also endorsed by state institutions. Hong Kong cannot afford to continue dithering if it wants to be incorporated into the country's big picture of development. While the trade war is sounding the alarm on Guangdong's economic restructuring, it can also be a catalyst for reforms. Under no circumstances should Hong Kong take this lightly.

廣東出口負增長 香港經濟響警鐘

今年上半年廣東出口1.91萬億元（人民幣，下同），下降3.3%，雖然同期全國的出口仍然有4.9%的增長，但廣東出口額佔全國四分之一，廣東出口出現負增長，在貿易戰愈演愈烈的情况下，敲響了中國全年出口的警鐘。廣東與香港唇齒相依，廣東出口形勢逆轉，對香港的貿易與航運等行業必然會產生影響。廣東省早已策劃經濟結構轉型，並刻意提高與「一帶一路」沿線國家貿易，仍然受到貿易戰重創，香港經濟轉型刻不容緩。

廣東省對外貿易歷來一枝獨秀，去年進出口總值6.82萬億元，較上年增長8%，出口4.22萬億元，增長6.7%，連續幾十年居全國之冠。然而，廣東的對外貿易存在嚴重的結構問題，一是過分依賴加工貿易，廣東開放改革始於香港工業北移，依靠來料加工和來樣加工，10年前的出口總值，仍然有一半依靠加工貿易，去年降低至37%，但還佔相當大比重。加工業依賴廉價勞動力，附加值低，在勞動力成本不斷提高的情况下，即使沒有貿易戰，本身也在面對東南亞勞動力低成本國家的競爭，今年上半年出口大幅下降，其中的重要因素是勞動密集型產品出口下降近18%。

廣東出口突顯疲態的另一個重要因素是機電產品出口增長放緩，機電產品出口佔廣東出口總額的73.2%，但上半年增長只有1.6%。這個低升幅，還有一個難關在前，美國宣布加徵關稅的清單中，機電產品佔一半，貿易商十分清楚加徵關稅的影響，紛紛搶閘趕在加徵關稅前進貨，一旦實施加徵，廣東機電產品出口會進一步受到打擊而雪上加霜。

香港在應對中美貿易戰方面，官員強調轉口貿易受影響幅度不會很大，但廣東出口出現負增長的影響和對外貿易的前景，足可為香港借鑑。由於廣東外貿增長放緩，香港的貿易與航運行業將會受到即時衝擊，金融與旅遊、零售行業也將受漣漪效應所波及。廣東提出並推動經濟轉型比香港早得多，仍然未如理想，香港在經濟發展多元化方面，應要快馬加鞭。

廣東在全國工業與高科技發展的鏈條當中，從中受惠是時間問題，大力開展跟「一帶一路」沿線國家的貿易關係，也有國家體制的保證，香港要融入國家發展大局，不能繼續議而不決。貿易戰為廣東經濟轉型敲響警鐘，但可以成為加速改革的催化劑，香港對此不能掉以輕心。