房屋不是簡單商品 房策趨近星洲模式

<轉載自2018年7月3日 明報 社評>

政府公布6項房屋新措施，公眾討論聚焦當局更改資助公營房屋定價機制，居屋售價將由現時市價七折調低至五二折等細節。然而，新措施有更深層涵義：就是資助房屋售價與市價脫鈎、增加公營房屋比例等政策宣示，標誌着房屋政策將有深度改變，政府以更大力度介入樓市，在新政策框架下房屋政策重點轉向資助公營房屋，不再以對私人住宅市場影響為首要考慮。有關政策轉向前所未見，符合本港大多數市民利益，值得肯定。包括將改變市民對置業心理預期，也對政府、市場及社會各界起到倒逼作用，並對資源配置和各項政策取捨產生深遠影響。

政府房策深度改變 公營房屋主導市場

行政長官林鄭月娥宣布6項房策新措施時，開宗明義表示「房屋不是簡單的商品」，適切居所是社會和諧穩定的基礎，政府尊重自由市場經濟的同時，有不可或缺角色。前日，她接受傳媒訪問時更表明六成公營房屋、四成私樓的供應比例（六四比）將來也可以改變；在新房策下全港家庭八成以上將有機會購買居屋、綠置居和首置上車盤等資助公營房屋，總體比例接近新加坡模式。目前新加坡逾八成人口居住在由政府建屋發展局興建的「組屋」，香港約46%人口住在資助房屋，包括公屋和居屋，其中15%居於資助出售單位。林鄭月娥在訪問中又提到，新加坡國民收入達到某個水平，就能期望買到一定價位和面積的住宅單位。比對日前政府的新措施，顯示本港房策趨近新加坡模式。

從港英管治到現在，政府房策均以私人住宅為軸心，公營資助房屋扮演補充角色。近年土地供應短缺，政府不夠土地配合公營房屋供應，給發展商以各種手法推高樓價提供了空間；居屋定價機制廣受詬病，正是房策以私樓市場為軸心的產物。現行居屋定價方程式，房委會先就私人住宅樓價「評估市值」，然後七折定價，並以白表家庭入息上限（5.7萬元）測試負擔能力，因為入息上限跟隨樓市上升而上調，使居屋售價實質上與市價掛鈎。這個定價機制遂出現新一期居屋大部分市區單位呎價近1萬元的「奇景」。

按政府新思路，強化了公營資助房屋角色，居屋售價與市價脫鈎，今後資助房屋將是必需品，其作為投資帶來重大資產升值的功能，將會弱化。近年樓價持續攀升，市民普遍抱有「今天不買明天更貴」、「有買貴無買錯」等心態；政府新措施透過可負擔能力，變相「鎖定」資助房屋售價，加上未來大幅增加土地供應，一定程度上可扭轉市民心理預期，毋須為置業而不理性地追價。公營資助房屋售價與市價脫鈎，而公營房屋佔總體供應比例上升，市民對「樓價必然穩步大幅上升」的根深柢固心理預期，可望逐步扭轉。

新框架逼各方改變 有助形成良性循環

香港樓市與實體經濟息息相關，港人視樓房為重要資產，價格不單關乎以百萬計業主的家產，不少人更將「磚頭」抵押予銀行作經商用途。回歸初期，香港受亞洲金融風暴打擊，樓價大幅滑落，出現大量負資產業主，當時政府擔心情况持續惡化，會危及銀行體系及打擊整體經濟，遂「落重藥」托市，包括取消賣地及停建居屋，有關情况恰恰說明房策受制於私人物業市場波動。新房策格局隨着私營房屋比例下降，一旦樓市逆轉而出現的風險，可望降低。

房策新框架將對政府、市場及社會各界帶來倒逼作用，改變各方的思維和行為模式，有助形成良性循環，為解決房屋深層次矛盾提供出路。設若資助公營房屋供應源源不絕，市民明白毋須胡亂「追價」，對發展商將構成反制，壓縮其囤積居奇或以「唧牙膏」式售樓的操作空間。另外，政府新房策符合大多數市民利益，對於一些政黨及議員，若仍然只顧及局部利益，政治上將要付出代價；例如馬料水填海計劃，可興建1.1萬個住宅單位，容納逾3萬人，若這些土地大多用以興建公營資助房屋，基於局部利益而反對填海計劃的政黨和議員，將不能不三思。房屋政策新措施朝正確方向邁出一步，不過，即使藍圖再好，歸根究柢還須盡快增加土地供應，使當局有本錢提供更多公營房屋單位，才可以根本改變房地產市場格局。

Similarity of new housing policies to Singaporean model

SINCE the government announced six measures on housing, the public's discussion has been focused on such details as the change to the pricing mechanism for subsidised public housing and the lowering of Home Ownership Scheme (HOS) flat prices from 70% of market levels to 52%. However, the new measures carry a deeper significance. The unpegging of subsidised housing prices from market prices and the increase in the proportion of public housing herald a profound change to the housing policy. The government will interfere in the property market more vigorously. The new housing policies will pivot on subsidised public housing, with the private property market no longer the government's priority. These policies, unprecedented and in the interests of the majority of Hong Kong people, are laudable.

When Carrie Lam, the chief executive, announced the six new housing measures, she declared that "housing is not a simple commodity" and that a suitable place to live in was the basis of social harmony and stability. She said that while the government respected the free market economy, it had an indispensable role to play. The day before last Carrie Lam answered questions by the media and even said clearly that the current 6:4 ratio of public housing to private flats could be changed in the future. Under the new housing policies, more than 80% — which will approximate that in the Singaporean model — of Hong Kong households will have the opportunity to purchase subsidised public housing including HOS flats, Green Form Subsidised HOS flats and Starter Homes scheme flats. Currently more than 80% of Singapore's population lives in Housing and Development Board (HDB) flats, while around 46% of Hong Kong people live in subsidised housing, including public housing and HOS flats. 15% of them live in subsidised sale flats. Carrie Lam also mentioned in the interview that Singaporean people expected to buy a flat of a certain price and area as soon as their income reached a certain level. The government's new policies are becoming similar to the Singaporean model.

Ever since the British colonial rule, the government's policy has been centred around private flats, with public subsidised housing playing a supplementary role. In recent years, due to the short supply of land, the government has not had enough land to accommodate the building of public housing. This has enabled real estate developers to push up property prices with all sorts of means. The much-maligned pricing mechanism for HOS is a product of a housing policy with private housing as the mainstay. In the existing HOS pricing formula, the Housing Authority first evaluates the market value of private housing and then sets a price at 70% of that value. It also tests a white-form household's ability to afford the flat against the upper income limit ($57,000). As the upper income limit increases with rises in property price, the price of an HOS flat is in effect pegged to market prices. Thanks to that mechanism, the latest batch of HOS flats in urban areas are mostly priced at nearly $10,000 per square foot, an extraordinary sight to behold.

The new housing measures are a step in the right direction. However, no matter how good a blueprint is, the key is, after all, increasing land supply as soon as possible to give the authorities more leeway to supply more public housing flats. Only by doing so can the structure of the real estate market be altered fundamentally.

房屋不是簡單商品 房策趨近星洲模式

政府公布6項房屋新措施，公眾討論聚焦當局更改資助公營房屋定價機制，居屋售價將由現時市價七折調低至五二折等細節。然而，新措施有更深層涵義：就是資助房屋售價與市價脫鈎、增加公營房屋比例等政策宣示，標誌着房屋政策將有深度改變，政府以更大力度介入樓市，在新政策框架下房屋政策重點轉向資助公營房屋，不再以對私人住宅市場影響為首要考慮。有關政策轉向前所未見，符合本港大多數市民利益，值得肯定。

行政長官林鄭月娥宣布6項房策新措施時，開宗明義表示「房屋不是簡單的商品」，適切居所是社會和諧穩定的基礎，政府尊重自由市場經濟的同時，有不可或缺角色。前日，她接受傳媒訪問時更表明六成公營房屋、四成私樓的供應比例（六四比）將來也可以改變；在新房策下全港家庭八成以上將有機會購買居屋、綠置居和首置上車盤等資助公營房屋，總體比例接近新加坡模式。目前新加坡逾八成人口居住在由政府建屋發展局興建的「組屋」，香港約46%人口住在資助房屋，包括公屋和居屋，其中15%居於資助出售單位。林鄭月娥在訪問中又提到，新加坡國民收入達到某個水平，就能期望買到一定價位和面積的住宅單位。比對日前政府的新措施，顯示本港房策趨近新加坡模式。

從港英管治到現在，政府房策均以私人住宅為軸心，公營資助房屋扮演補充角色。近年土地供應短缺，政府不夠土地配合公營房屋供應，給發展商以各種手法推高樓價提供了空間；居屋定價機制廣受詬病，正是房策以私樓市場為軸心的產物。現行居屋定價方程式，房委會先就私人住宅樓價「評估市值」，然後七折定價，並以白表家庭入息上限（5.7萬元）測試負擔能力，因為入息上限跟隨樓市上升而上調，使居屋售價實質上與市價掛鈎。這個定價機制遂出現新一期居屋大部分市區單位呎價近1萬元的「奇景」。

房屋政策新措施朝正確方向邁出一步，不過，即使藍圖再好，歸根究柢還須盡快增加土地供應，使當局有本錢提供更多公營房屋單位，才可以根本改變房地產市場格局。