貿易戰美國步步進逼 中國須化被動為主動

<轉載自2018年7月12日 明報 社評>

中美貿易戰有升級之勢。華府公布加徵關稅新清單，擬對總值2000億美元中國貨品，加徵一成關稅，中方表示會採取必要反制措施。中美貿易戰關乎兩國國運，縱使不見硝煙，慘烈程度未必遜於流血戰爭，中方不能一味見招拆招被動應對。面對美方步步進逼，中方需要沉着應戰，不可頭腦發熱失分寸，亦不可抱着綏靖主義。中方不能對美方輕易「鳴金收兵」存有任何幻想，需要採取更主動戰略，適時提醒華府中方也有殺着，迫使對方知難而退。

借鑑毛澤東戰術 應付美方新攻勢

中美互相向對方340億美元貨品加徵關稅不過一周，美方已準備發動第二輪攻勢。華府最新關稅清單，除了針對「中國製造2025」的高新科技產品，還包括雪櫃、服裝等零售產品，措施最快9月生效。中方抨擊美方手段下流，連美國零售業也批評總統特朗普違背承諾，向零售貨品徵稅，變相懲罰美國家庭。

貿易戰爆發以來，美股整體走勢強勁，原因之一是不少投資者認為貿易戰「影響有限」，然而貿易戰真正影響尚未浮現，美企業績和經濟數據亮麗，某程度只是反映去年特朗普大幅減稅成效。近日美國聯儲局前主席格林斯潘便指出，開徵關稅表面是給商品出口國製造麻煩，其實是由己方國民埋單，皆因關稅措施如同向國民加稅，會打擊美國人購買力，抵消大幅減稅效用。

目前中美貿易戰令人最不安之處，是看不到有「和平之路」。美國誓要遏阻中國高科技發展，維護美國霸權，中國則把高科技產業升級視為富強之路。貿易戰結果關乎中美國運，雙方都不會輕易退讓，美方若未能取得「重大收穫」，等同向全世界承認失敗，全球霸主地位將重挫；對中方而言，向華府屈服，等同放棄「民族復興中國夢」，以後在美國面前再難抬頭，其他國家也會上門討好處。隨着貿易戰開打，中方很難一味靜觀其變。國共內戰期間，毛澤東提出「你打你的、我打我的」，強調不為對手動作所惑，主動出擊打擊敵人要害。現在中方難再寄望美方回心轉意，必須慎思如何打好這場貿易戰。

特朗普揚言可以輕易打贏貿易戰，一大理由是中國輸美產品總值超過5000億美元，是美國輸華產品總值3倍，一旦鬥徵關稅，美方籌碼更多。部分美國主流媒體也相信這一套，認為美國經濟形勢大好，貿易戰勝券在握，經此一役，美國在全球經濟優勢將擴大，其他貿易伙伴都要俯首稱臣，云云。然而一些分析師和學者卻質疑，這種看法太過樂觀。

首先國際貿易不能只計有形商品，還要看「無形資產」貿易。經濟全球化，一件商品的價值創造，往往分佈於多國，即所謂全球價值鏈，有些國家強於「生產」知識研發，有些強於生產製造。舉例說，美國一年專利費淨收入高達800億美元，中國卻是淨支出逾100億美元。有學者推算，若將無形資產貿易收入也計算在內，美國一年對外貿易逆差足足少了一半。美國發動貿易戰，沒有認真考慮對本國無形資產貿易影響，倘若將之計算在內，美方所受打擊可能遠比想像為高。

玉石俱焚重招難亂用 適時警告勿「相互毁滅」

此外，中方手上亦有反制辣招。美國最新徵稅清單針對中國高科技產品，偏偏未有涵蓋智能手機，正好突顯美方弱點。中國是蘋果手機生產基地，今年初蘋果總裁庫克訪華後，旋即到訪白宮與特朗普會面，外界相信庫克正是擔心貿易戰會打擊蘋果業務。美國貿易專家指出，中方面對美國加碼徵稅，可以向在華美企埋手，例如以技術理由，關閉蘋果iPhone生產線，又或增加在華美資車廠生產成本，中方必要時還有更辣招數，包括限制在華美資將利潤匯回美國，甚至拋售美債及讓人民幣貶值。

中方拋售美債，必令外匯儲備損失慘重；人民幣大幅下跌，則會導致資金外流，不利內地去槓桿和產業升級改革。雖然大行分析認為，中方不會隨便使用這些辣招，人行也表示會維持人民幣穩定，可時一旦貿易戰曠日持久，就連美方專家也不敢排除北京會採取貶值策略，甚或沽售美債，不惜壓低美債價格推高債息，跟美方「累鬥累」。當然，這些玉石俱焚重招不能輕率亂用，可是就如核武一樣，有時確要提醒對手，己方手上有殺手鐧，足以「保證相互毁滅」（Mutual Assured Destruction）。

貿易戰某程度是貨幣戰的延續。2008年金融海嘯後，西方發達國家陷入增長太少債務太多困局，於是透過印銀紙等手段讓貨幣貶值，從貿易伙伴身上「偷走」經濟增長，然而當各方都這樣做，貨幣戰不再管用，取而代之的，就是發動貿易戰「明搶」。上世紀1920年代，西方世界也曾爆發貨幣戰，並於30年代惡化為貿易戰，最後演變成「真刀真槍」的二次大戰。21世紀的貨幣戰始於2010年，到2018年發展成為貿易戰，往後國際形勢如何發展，令人憂心。

China should adopt proactive measures as US steps up offensive in trade war

THE China-US trade war appears to be escalating. Washington has announced that it will impose an additional 10% tariff on US$200 billion worth of Chinese goods. China has said that it will take necessary countermeasures. As the US steps up its offensive, China should remain calm while planning its next step in the trade war. It should neither become hot-headed and mess up its game plan nor hold on to any doctrine of appeasement. China should adopt a more proactive strategy and force Washington to back off by reminding Washington at the right time that China owns some lethal weapons too.

Since the trade war broke out, US stocks have as a whole had a strong run. One of the reasons is that many investors believe that the trade war will have a "limited impact". However, the real impact of the trade war has yet to be felt. To a certain extent, the solid performance of American companies and positive economic figures only reflect the effects of Trump's huge tax cuts last year. Former US Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan has already pointed out that imposing tariffs may appear to be causing trouble to the exporting countries, but in reality, it is the people of the importing countries who are footing the bill because imposing tariffs are similar to increasing taxes on the public. It will be a blow to the purchasing power of Americans and will offset the effects of big tax cuts.

Trump has claimed that the US can win the trade war easily and one main reason is that the total value of exports from China to the US exceeds US$500 billion, which is three times that of US exports to China. The US therefore has more bargaining chips than China when the two countries scramble to impose tariffs on each other's products. However, some analysts and scholars have queried Trump's assertion and think that he is being too optimistic.

First of all, apart from tangible goods, there are also "intangible assets" in international trade. In a globalised economy, the creation of the value of any goods is distributed in many countries. This is the so-called "global value chain". Some countries are good at "producing" knowledge— related research and development while others are good at production and manufacturing. Take, for example, the US's annual net income from royalty fees, which is as high as US$80 billion, while China's net expenditure exceeds US$10 billion. Some scholars project that if income from the trade of intangible assets is included, the annual foreign trade deficit of the US will be reduced by as much as 50%. When the US started the trade war, it had not seriously taken into consideration the impact on its trade in intangible assets. If it is taken into consideration, the adverse impact of the trade war on the US may perhaps be much higher than imagined.

In addition, China has other tough measures with which it can counter the US. According to US trade experts, China can target US companies in China. For example, it can close the production lines of iPhones citing technical reasons or increase the production costs of American car factories in China. When necessary, China may even resort to tougher measures, such as imposing restrictions on profit repatriation by American investors in China, or even selling US Treasury bonds and allowing the RMB to depreciate.

If China sells US bonds, its foreign exchange reserves would inevitably suffer a heavy loss. The devaluation of the RMB will result in a capital outflow, which is unfavourable to the deleveraging drive and the upgrading and restructuring of industries on the mainland. Tough measures that destroy everything including oneself and one's enemy should of course not be resorted to rashly. However, as in nuclear armament, sometimes one has to remind one's enemy that one has lethal weapons which ensure "mutual assured destruction".

貿易戰美國步步進逼 中國須化被動為主動

中美貿易戰有升級之勢。華府公布加徵關稅新清單，擬對總值2000億美元中國貨品，加徵一成關稅，中方表示會採取必要反制措施。面對美方步步進逼，中方需要沉着應戰，不可頭腦發熱失分寸，亦不可抱着綏靖主義。中方需要採取更主動戰略，適時提醒華府中方也有殺着，迫使對方知難而退。

貿易戰爆發以來，美股整體走勢強勁，原因之一是不少投資者認為貿易戰「影響有限」，然而貿易戰真正影響尚未浮現，美企業績和經濟數據亮麗，某程度只是反映去年特朗普大幅減稅成效。近日美國聯儲局前主席格林斯潘便指出，開徵關稅表面是給商品出口國製造麻煩，其實是由己方國民埋單，皆因關稅措施如同向國民加稅，會打擊美國人購買力，抵消大幅減稅效用。

特朗普揚言可以輕易打贏貿易戰，一大理由是中國輸美產品總值超過5000億美元，是美國輸華產品總值3倍，一旦鬥徵關稅，美方籌碼更多。然而一些分析師和學者卻質疑，這種看法太過樂觀。

首先國際貿易不能只計有形商品，還要看「無形資產」貿易。經濟全球化，一件商品的價值創造，往往分佈於多國，即所謂全球價值鏈，有些國家強於「生產」知識研發，有些強於生產製造。舉例說，美國一年專利費淨收入高達800億美元，中國卻是淨支出逾100億美元。有學者推算，若將無形資產貿易收入也計算在內，美國一年對外貿易逆差足足少了一半。美國發動貿易戰，沒有認真考慮對本國無形資產貿易影響，倘若將之計算在內，美方所受打擊可能遠比想像為高。

此外，中方手上亦有反制辣招。美國貿易專家指出，中方可以向在華美企埋手，例如以技術理由，關閉蘋果iPhone生產線，又或增加在華美資車廠生產成本，中方必要時還有更辣招數，包括限制在華美資將利潤匯回美國，甚至拋售美債及讓人民幣貶值。

中方拋售美債，必令外匯儲備損失慘重；人民幣大幅下跌，則會導致資金外流，不利內地去槓桿和產業升級改革。當然，這些玉石俱焚重招不能輕率亂用，可是就如核武一樣，有時確要提醒對手，己方手上有殺手鐧，足以「保證相互毁滅」（Mutual Assured Destruction）。