見招拆招容易 亡羊補牢困難

<轉載自2018年4月23日 明報 社評>

當中美專家學者正在研判貿易戰是否一觸即發的時候，美國商務部宣布對中國中興通訊實施嚴厲制裁，中國商務部立即宣布對美國出口中國的高粱實施反傾銷措施，雙方以牙還牙的招數不斷升級。目前看到的情况是，即使美國財政部長梅努欽表示考慮來華磋商，中美雙方未來有機會通過談判平息貿易摩擦，但兩國貿易與經濟關係的損害已經顯現。中國在應對貿易戰見招拆招的同時，必須亡羊補牢，下重本加速科技研發，減少依賴外國，否則龐大市場的獨特有利因素也會變成為他人作嫁衣裳。

貿戰未正式開打 實質影響已浮現

美國商務部將於本周宣布，對新增的1000億美元中國進口商品實施額外關稅的清單，但畢竟距離真正實施還有一段時間，中美雙方還有時間磋商，貿易戰還是有機會避免開打。然而，美國單方面以違反對伊朗的禁運為藉口，對中興通訊實施7年禁止提供技術、晶片和軟件並即時生效的命令，令中國第二大通訊產品製造商即時「休克」。制裁中國高科技產品，可以說是精準打擊，雖然中國也有瞄準美國農產品的反擊，雙方未分勝負，可是，貿易戰還沒有正式開打，實質的影響已經產生，5G電訊是通訊產品市場未來的兵家必爭之地，現在可以肯定，美國市場將不會給予中國企業任何機會。

從目前中美雙方往還的招數看，都是拳拳到肉的重槌，中國通訊產品雖然佔領國際市場重要份額，但由於晶片技術落後，幾乎全要依賴美國和日本的專利技術，只是充當組裝加工的角色，賺取的只是微利。中國最大的製造商華為稍微進取，一直大力投放資源在研發，取得很多產品專利，但總體上也還未能做到完全自主。若美國對中國通訊產品實施全面禁運，中國製造商可謂寸步難行。

美國地大物博，農業科技先進，是農產品第一大出口國，雖然經濟收益並非至關重大，但養活了大量的農民，他們也是特朗普總統的鐵票倉，美國即將在年底舉行中期選舉，農民選票可以左右大局。美國的大豆和高粱六七成輸往中國，中國宣布對大豆和高粱實施反傾銷關稅，美國農產品受到重創。中美雙方的制裁與反制措施，拳腳交加，誰都不是省油的燈。

中國依賴美國的大豆和高粱，始於本世紀初，購買價廉物美的美國農產品，一來可以順應中美關係，降低貿易逆差的需要，同時可以減輕補貼農民，以及加速工業化和城鎮化的進程。目前為應對美國的貿易戰，減少依賴美國農產品，可以選擇巴西及其他國家作為進口的替代，甚至可以利用這次機會，轉移進口渠道以開拓和加強新的外交關係。但中國農民的利益還是要照顧的，重商賤農是中國歷史上反覆出現的規律，農民穩定收入是國之根基，農業部剛剛宣布加大補貼大豆種植，希望不是應對減少依賴進口的權宜之計，而是真正起到長治久安作用的策略。

中國而言反思機會 趕緊修補科技短板

中國的未來依賴科技的進步。美國對中國通訊產品的精準打擊，對美國來說是貿易戰的成敗關鍵，對中國來說，則是一個反思的機會，利用得宜，反而會是起死回生的轉捩點。晶片技術不但影響通訊產品的成本高低，還是方興未艾人工智能技術的關鍵。中國在這方面起步較遲，據一項調查顯示，當前中國核心集成電路的國產晶片佔有率，16項指標中，9項佔有率為0，最高的一項也只不過是22%，可以說相當落後。

落後捱打的道理，朝野都懂，100多年前的洋務運動，就有過買船與造船的爭論，當時中國的科技能力，不足以跟先進工業化國家相比，最後只能是買船捱打。國產晶片至本世紀初還出現了抹掉來源國標籤蒙騙過關的「漢芯」造假事件，最後痛定思痛，國家才大力支持晶片的研發，制定《中國製造2025》的中長期目標，在製造質量上完成轉型升級和跨越發展。

中國擁有龐大的市場，即使美國限制中國產品進入，單靠自身內需市場，足以令通訊產品有巨大發展空間。過去有企業在發展策略上有短視行為，輕視研發，以購買外國專利賺快錢，這次被美國「一鋪清袋」，成為教訓，同時突顯重視研究自主專利的彌足珍貴。以國家撥款資助企業或許違反公平競爭原則，但國家可以大力資助大學的研發隊伍，扶持基礎研究，培養研究人才。而能否將研究成果轉化成商業用途，則全看企業自己的本事了。

中美貿易戰是殺敵一千自損八百的遊戲，不但損害兩國的經濟，還會令半製成品的生產國受到池魚之殃，韓國和日本雖然非美國打擊的重點對象，但已經深感危機而未雨綢繆，一面協調美國修改政策，一面聯絡中國共同應對美國，世界格局正在發生微妙的變化。中美貿易戰的前景是一場尚未上演的好戲，但對於中國來說，趕緊亡羊補牢，修補科研技術的短板，為可持續發展加大科技研發力量，才是應對的當務之急。

China must step up its own R&D

JUST when experts in Sino-US relations are mulling over the possibility of an imminent trade war, the tit-for-tat spat between the two sides has continued to escalate. Immediately after the US Department of Commerce had imposed heavy sanctions against ZTE Corporation, China's Ministry of Commerce followed suit by announcing anti-dumping measures on grain sorghum imported from the US. Since US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin has said he is considering a trip to China, there may still be chances of resolving trade conflicts through dialogue. But in view of aforementioned circumstances, obviously harm has already been done to the trade and economic relations between the two countries. While China is pondering its next moves to counter those made by the US, it should also seek to play catch-up through the investment of significant resources to speed up its research and development. Only by then will it become less dependent on foreign countries. If it fails to do so, even the unique advantage of a huge market will only benefit other countries.

The US Department of Commerce is to announce later this week a new list of tariffs on US$100 billion's worth of imported goods from China. But since the measures will be implemented only some time later, there is still time for the two sides to negotiate and there are still chances of avoiding a full-blown trade war. However, the US has unilaterally accused ZTE Corp of violating sanctions against Iran and cited this as a reason for imposing a seven-year ban on ZTE with immediate effect. Prohibiting US businesses from providing technologies, chips or software for ZTE, the order has dealt a prompt blow to the second largest manufacturer of telecommunications equipment in China. 5G telecommunications is the future battleground contested by all fighting for the telecom product market. But now it is certain that Chinese companies will be shunned by the US market.

The moves taken by China and the US at present pack quite a punch. Although Chinese telecom products enjoy a significant share of the international market, China's lag in chip technology has made it nearly totally dependent on patented US and Japan technologies. The role played by China has been merely assembly processing and its profit is meagre. The biggest Chinese manufacturer Huawei has been a bit more proactive. It has invested a lot of resources in research and development all along and earned many patents for its products. But overall, Huawei is still some way from being totally independent. If the US imposes a comprehensive ban on Chinese telecom products, it will be an extremely difficult situation for Chinese manufacturers.

The future of China relies on its advance in technology. From the US's perspective, its "precision strike" at Chinese telecom products may be the key to its victory or defeat in the trade war. However, from China's perspective, it can be an opportunity for self-reflection and even a turning point of revival if the chance is well grasped at. The theory that "the underdog tends to get beaten up" is well understood by all in public offices or on the streets. The Self-strengthening Movement of China more than a century ago saw a heated debate over buying or building ships. But China's technological capacity at that time was not at a level comparable to that of the advanced industrialised countries. It ended up buying ships and being the side that was beaten up.

China has a market so huge that despite US restrictions on Chinese goods it can still rely on its own domestic demand market to provide ample room for telecom product development. In the past, some Chinese companies were short-sighted in terms of development strategies. Disregarding the importance of research and development, they opted for earning quick money by buying foreign patents. Now that the US has decimated such a path to riches with a single move, the lesson should be taken to highlight the preciousness of placing importance on research for independent patents.

The looming Sino-US trade war is a drama that has yet to be staged but China already has a top-priority pressing task. It must mend the sheepfold without delay and plug the holes in technology research, putting more efforts in research and development for the sake of sustainable development of its industries.

見招拆招容易 亡羊補牢困難

當中美專家學者正在研判貿易戰是否一觸即發的時候，美國商務部宣布對中國中興通訊實施嚴厲制裁，中國商務部立即宣布對美國出口中國的高粱實施反傾銷措施，雙方以牙還牙的招數不斷升級。目前看到的情况是，即使美國財政部長梅努欽表示考慮來華磋商，中美雙方未來有機會通過談判平息貿易摩擦，但兩國貿易與經濟關係的損害已經顯現。中國在應對貿易戰見招拆招的同時，必須亡羊補牢，下重本加速科技研發，減少依賴外國，否則龐大市場的獨特有利因素也會變成為他人作嫁衣裳。

美國商務部將於本周宣布，對新增的1000億美元中國進口商品實施額外關稅的清單，但畢竟距離真正實施還有一段時間，中美雙方還有時間磋商，貿易戰還是有機會避免開打。然而，美國單方面以違反對伊朗的禁運為藉口，對中興通訊實施7年禁止提供技術、晶片和軟件並即時生效的命令，令中國第二大通訊產品製造商即時「休克」。5G電訊是通訊產品市場未來的兵家必爭之地，現在可以肯定，美國市場將不會給予中國企業任何機會。

從目前中美雙方往還的招數看，都是拳拳到肉的重槌，中國通訊產品雖然佔領國際市場重要份額，但由於晶片技術落後，幾乎全要依賴美國和日本的專利技術，只是充當組裝加工的角色，賺取的只是微利。中國最大的製造商華為稍微進取，一直大力投放資源在研發，取得很多產品專利，但總體上也還未能做到完全自主。若美國對中國通訊產品實施全面禁運，中國製造商可謂寸步難行。

中國的未來依賴科技的進步。美國對中國通訊產品的精準打擊，對美國來說是貿易戰的成敗關鍵，對中國來說，則是一個反思的機會，利用得宜，反而會是起死回生的轉捩點。落後捱打的道理，朝野都懂，100多年前的洋務運動，就有過買船與造船的爭論，當時中國的科技能力，不足以跟先進工業化國家相比，最後只能是買船捱打。

中國擁有龐大的市場，即使美國限制中國產品進入，單靠自身內需市場，足以令通訊產品有巨大發展空間。過去有企業在發展策略上有短視行為，輕視研發，以購買外國專利賺快錢，這次被美國「一鋪清袋」，成為教訓，同時突顯重視研究自主專利的彌足珍貴。

中美貿易戰的前景是一場尚未上演的好戲，但對於中國來說，趕緊亡羊補牢，修補科研技術的短板，為可持續發展加大科技研發力量，才是應對的當務之急。