習倡擴大對外開放 加力倒逼產業升級

<轉載自2018年4月11日 明報 社評>

國家主席習近平出席博鰲亞洲論壇，提出擴大對外開放，降低汽車等產品進口關稅，加強保護知識產權。最近中美貿易戰陰霾籠罩，有人揣測中方是否讓步，然而分析近年國情發展，應當理解這是中國推動產業升級之舉，難言對美國「口硬手軟」，近期中美貿易對峙之局也不會改變。中國要躋身製造業先進強國之列，需要提高自身競爭力，逐步開放引入更多競爭乃必經之路，如何做到不疾不徐，將是成敗關鍵。

降汽車關稅早屬國策 中美貿易對峙局未變

今次是中美貿易戰風雲驟起以來，習近平首次公開闡述中國發展路向，部分論述明顯意有所指。習近平談到「一帶一路」，強調中國「不打地緣博弈小算盤、不搞封閉排他小圈子、不做凌駕於人的強買強賣」；談到各國妥善管控分歧，則強調「不搞唯我獨尊」的零和遊戲，「不搞以鄰為壑」的強權霸道，「妄自尊大或獨善其身只能四處碰壁」。習近平沒有點名批評，然而如何對號入座，各方心知肚明。

習近平形容改革開放是中國「第二次革命」，強調大門「只會愈開愈大」，未來中國將朝四方向擴大開放，包括大幅放寬市場准入、創造更有吸引力投資環境、加強保護知識產權，以及主動擴大進口，具體措施除了加快開放金融保險業，也包括「相當幅度」降低進口汽車及部分商品關稅，以及重新組建國家知識產權局，嚴懲侵權行為。近日美國總統特朗普批評中國向美國車徵收25％關稅，又以「保護知識產權」之名，威脅向數百億美元中國貨徵稅，或許有人認為今次是中方妥協讓步之舉，然而這既是對當前中美貿易糾紛本質的誤解，也是對中方擴大開放措施的誤讀。

北京提出擴大進口和保護知識產權，並非為了回應貿易戰，而是出於自身產業升級考慮，注定與美方訴求存在極大落差。除非現在特朗普想找下台階鳴金收兵，否則中美貿易對峙大局不會有實質變化，硬要用貿易戰角度分析中方擴大開放舉措，只會失諸偏頗，錯判形勢。今年1月，時任國家發改委副主任劉鶴出席達沃斯論壇，提到去年中國已降低187種產品進口關稅的稅率，未來步伐還會加快，例如有序降低汽車進口關稅；上月政府工作報告亦提出，要下調汽車和部分日用消費品進口關稅，反映有關措施本來就是國策。

曾幾何時，「華盛頓共識」當道，發展中國家被迫向西方全面開放市場，惟現今新興國家都不願再為他人作嫁衣裳，讓外資扼殺本地企業萌芽機會。不過當產業建立起一定實力，逐步開放進口市場，也是促使國內企業提高競爭力的不二法門，中國汽車業正處於此階段。大體而言，產業競爭力愈強，進口關稅可以降得愈低。中國連續8年成為世界最大汽車生產國，惟論高檔車市場，國產汽車實力仍待提升。降低進口關稅，有助鞭策國內車廠求進，惟中方不可能如美方所願，一下子將進口車關稅降至5%以下，估計最多只會降至15％左右。

關心知識產權焦點不一 華盼競爭推動產業升級

近月華府官員言論已說明，美方最關心的並非「貿易失衡」，而是遏阻中國製造業實現高科技轉型。華府尤其擔心「中國製造2025」計劃一旦成功，中國高新科技產業將會超越美國。為了阻撓中方名正言順取得美國企業技術，華府大力阻撓中資併購，又以「保護知識產權」之名，以貿易戰脅逼中方改變外資技術轉移政策。相比之下，中方對「保護知識產權」的關注，層面並不一樣。

國際著名學者麥克科恩（Bruce McKern）勾勒中國製造業發展三階段﹕首階段是由山寨模仿到改良唯用，次階段是由跟風到追上國際標準，第三階段則是由尋覓新資源到追求新技術。首階段描繪的，大抵是多年前的「世界工廠」時代，部分港人對內地的認知，仍停留在這階段，儘管很多大陸企業已「進化」踏入第二和第三階段，透過研發創新及對外併購，建立品牌提升產品質素。根據世界知識產權組織的「2017年全球創新指數」，中國總排名22，稱冠中等收入國家。從中國角度看，加強保護知識產權，既是製造更佳投資環境，鼓勵創新，同時亦是加強保護自身研發成果。

近年中國推動供給側結構改革，要旨也是實現產業升級，「中國製造2025」固然是焦點所在，然而這場「品質革命」，還可見諸很多日用品。數年前內地客「赴日搶購智能馬桶蓋」惹來熱議，折射內地產品與民眾需求存在落差，惟短短3年，內地智能馬桶生產企業已接近300家，新品牌如雨後春筍，見證供給側發展步伐之快。當然，中國要填補的供應空白仍然很多，民眾對國產奶粉的質量就仍然缺乏信任，「品質革命」之路仍然漫長。中國改革開放已經進入了「深水區」，要進一步提升產業實力，必須打破既得利益格局和因循心態，穩步加快開放引入競爭。

China further opens up to upgrade its industries

AT the Boao Forum for Asia, Chinese President Xi Jinping suggested further opening the nation's economy to foreign investment, lowering tariffs on imported products like vehicles and bolstering intellectual property protection. With the spectre of a Sino-US trade war looming, some people are conjecturing about whether Xi's comment is a sign of concession by China. However, if we examine the ongoing development of China's national conditions, we will understand it only represents Beijing's efforts to upgrade the country's industries. One can hardly take it as proof that China's indomitability in word will be accompanied by ineffectuality in deed towards the US. Foreseeably there will not be any changes in the ongoing confrontation over trade issues between the two sides. In order to join the ranks of advanced major countries in manufacturing, China must boost its competitiveness. To this end, the only way is to gradually open up and allow more competition. Whether it can do this at a pace neither too fast nor too slow will be the key that determines its success or failure.

Xi's speech marked the first time he had talked publicly about the future directions of China's development since the storm of the trade war blew in. It is not hard to notice the connotations in some of his remarks. Talking about the "Belt and Road" initiative, he emphasised China would not engage in "geopolitical ulterior calculations", "the creation of a coterie of countries that exclude others" or "the foisting of unfavourable deals on any countries". He also talked about how to manage the disagreements among different countries appropriately, stressing the need to "do away with the zero-sum mentality blended with self-importance" and "the autocratic way of dumping one's problems on one's neighbours". "Neither delusions of grandeur nor splendid isolation can bring you anywhere." Xi did not name any person nor country, but all can tell who or which country he was referring to.

Xi described China's reform and opening up as its "second revolution", emphasising the door "will only open wider and wider". He outlined four directions of China's further opening up in the future, namely broadening market access on a significant scale, creating a more attractive environment for investment, enhancing intellectual property protection and taking the initiative to increase imports. Specifics of these measures include speeding up the opening up of financial and insurance sectors, "significantly" lowering import tariffs on cars and some other products, and restructuring the State Intellectual Property Office to introduce severe punishments for infringement on intellectual property. Recently, US President Trump has complained about China's 25% tariff on imported US cars and has threatened to levy tariffs on tens of billions of US dollars' worth of Chinese goods. Some might think that Xi's speech made against such a backdrop was a conciliatory gesture taken by China. But such beliefs are a misunderstanding of the nature of the current Sino-US trade disputes and the further opening up of China.

Rather than a response to the trade war, Beijing's plans to increase imports and protect intellectual property were in fact devised out of consideration of upgrading the country's industries. Naturally, these plans will fall far short of the US's demands. Such being the case, unless Trump wants to find a graceful way to back out of the predicament, there will not be any substantial changes in the confrontational situation surrounding Sino-US trade. Looking at China's further opening up from the perspective of the trade war will miss the mark; it will also be a misjudgement of the situation. In fact, when NDRC (National Development and Reform Commission) Vice Chairman Liu He addressed the Davos Forum in January this year, he already mentioned that China had lowered tariffs on 187 items of imported goods last year and would continue to speed up the process in the future by, for instance, cutting tariffs on imported cars in an orderly manner. Furthermore, the government work report last month also suggested lowering import tariffs on vehicles and some daily commodities. All this has shown that the relevant measures are themselves part of the national policy.

習倡擴大對外開放 加力倒逼產業升級

國家主席習近平出席博鰲亞洲論壇，提出擴大對外開放，降低汽車等產品進口關稅，加強保護知識產權。最近中美貿易戰陰霾籠罩，有人揣測中方是否讓步，然而分析近年國情發展，應當理解這是中國推動產業升級之舉，難言對美國「口硬手軟」，近期中美貿易對峙之局也不會改變。中國要躋身製造業先進強國之列，需要提高自身競爭力，逐步開放引入更多競爭乃必經之路，如何做到不疾不徐，將是成敗關鍵。

今次是中美貿易戰風雲驟起以來，習近平首次公開闡述中國發展路向，部分論述明顯意有所指。習近平談到「一帶一路」，強調中國「不打地緣博弈小算盤、不搞封閉排他小圈子、不做凌駕於人的強買強賣」；談到各國妥善管控分歧，則強調「不搞唯我獨尊」的零和遊戲，「不搞以鄰為壑」的強權霸道，「妄自尊大或獨善其身只能四處碰壁」。習近平沒有點名批評，然而如何對號入座，各方心知肚明。

習近平形容改革開放是中國「第二次革命」，強調大門「只會愈開愈大」，未來中國將朝四方向擴大開放，包括大幅放寬市場准入、創造更有吸引力投資環境、加強保護知識產權，以及主動擴大進口，具體措施除了加快開放金融保險業，也包括「相當幅度」降低進口汽車及部分商品關稅，以及重新組建國家知識產權局，嚴懲侵權行為。近日美國總統特朗普批評中國向美國車徵收25％關稅，又以「保護知識產權」之名，威脅向數百億美元中國貨徵稅，或許有人認為今次是中方妥協讓步之舉，然而這既是對當前中美貿易糾紛本質的誤解，也是對中方擴大開放措施的誤讀。

北京提出擴大進口和保護知識產權，並非為了回應貿易戰，而是出於自身產業升級考慮，注定與美方訴求存在極大落差。除非現在特朗普想找下台階鳴金收兵，否則中美貿易對峙大局不會有實質變化，硬要用貿易戰角度分析中方擴大開放舉措，只會失諸偏頗，錯判形勢。今年1月，時任國家發改委副主任劉鶴出席達沃斯論壇，提到去年中國已降低187種產品進口關稅的稅率，未來步伐還會加快，例如有序降低汽車進口關稅；上月政府工作報告亦提出，要下調汽車和部分日用消費品進口關稅，反映有關措施本來就是國策。