中日關係驚變 紅燈已然亮起

 <轉載自2021年3月18日 明報 社評>

中日外交起波瀾，外交部抨擊日本政府背信棄義，甘願仰人鼻息，與美國狼狽為奸；措辭之嚴厲，近年相當少見。中日關係總體向好的勢頭，忽然橫生枝節，必須放在中美博弈大格局理解。美國不斷拉攏盟友「站邊歸隊」壓制中國，日本之前一直採取戰略模糊策略，避免公開表明立場，然而本周美日防長外長2+2會談後的聯合聲明，罕有點名指控中國，甚至傳出美日將針對「尖閣諸島」（即釣魚島），舉行大型海陸空軍演。北京關注日本對華戰略變化，圍繞釣魚島的爭議近期亦見升溫，未來數月，不排除中日關係急轉直下，出現更多摩擦。

日本公開站邊助美 北京狠批背信棄義

中美角力激烈，並未因為白宮易主而出現多少轉變，中美高層對話今天在阿拉斯加舉行，是美國總統拜登上台以來，兩國高層首度面對面溝通，以當前的形勢，若能做到「帶着誠意而來、帶着理解離開」，其實已很不錯。中美博弈牽動全球，中國駐美大使崔天凱特別提到，美國與其他國家發展雙邊關係，不應以第三國為目標、不應損害第三方利益，如果美方以為找幾個國家向中方施壓，北京便會在核心利益問題上妥協，只會令中美對話陷入死胡同。這番說話，既是中方在阿拉斯加對話前的一次立場說明，同時亦是對拜登政府最近連串外交動作的回應。

拜登上台短短兩個月，華府外交動作頻頻，由美日澳印「四方安全對話」，到本周的美日、美韓外長防長2+2會談，都是針對中國而來。拜登政府欲拉攏盟友向華施壓，各方反應不盡相同，例如韓國便寧可將焦點放在朝鮮問題；上月G7線上峰會，德法亦不見得緊跟美國調門。相比之下，近期日本對華態度變化，卻相當令人關注。

美日2+2會談聯合聲明，強調《日美安保條約》協防範圍涵蓋「尖閣諸島」（中國的釣魚島），美日反對任何單方面試圖改變「東海現狀」的行為，日本要加強國防能力，強化美日同盟，防衛相岸信夫更稱，「日方決心用所有手段，守護日本領土」。兩國對香港、台灣、新疆、西藏等地情况表示關注，又指控中國在南海的部署，是「不法的海洋權益主張及活動」。中方對此反應強烈，嚴辭抨擊美日干涉中國內政、抹黑中國，對於日本「為滿足阻遏中國崛起的一己之私」，「出賣本地區整體利益」、「破壞中日關係」，北京尤其不滿。

外交部發言人批評日方甘願仰人鼻息，充當美國戰略附庸，「引狼入室」、「狼狽為奸」、「令人不齒」等強烈措辭一一用上，當中又以「背信棄義」一語說得最狠。莫說國與國關係，就算是人際交往，信義也是最為根本。外交部用上「背信棄義」這麼重的措辭，反映中方認為日本對華態度出現重大變化。中日關係驚變，紅燈已然亮起。

過去十年，中日關係高低跌宕如坐過山車。2012年，日本政府將釣魚島「國有化」，令中日關係跌入谷底，中方派海警船到釣島附近水域巡邏維護主權，兩國船舶多番對峙，東海局勢緊張。安倍晉三再任日揆後，為了振興經濟，尋求與中方改善關係。2014年，兩國政府達成四點原則，重申以中日四個政治文件為基礎，繼續發展戰略互惠關係；關於釣魚島等問題，兩國同意通過對話磋商防止局勢惡化，建立危機管控機制，避免不測事態。中日關係自此逐步回暖，特朗普上任美國總統後，中美鬥爭愈益激烈，日本作為美國軍事盟友，又想兼顧中日經濟合作，一直採取戰略模糊策略，縱使立場側向美國，始終避免公開站邊。

釣島風雲再起 美國渾水摸魚

前年安倍訪華，還說中日韓三國，不是三國時期的魏蜀吳，盼可構築「新三國時代」共同合作。沒料到這次美日聯合聲明，日方突然改變多年來做法，首次與美國一道，公開點名指控中國，涉及的更是領土主權等核心利益。根據日本傳媒說法，岸信夫與美國防長奧斯汀單獨會晤期間，雙方還同意針對釣魚島可能出現的緊急情况，舉行美日聯合軍演，美軍陸戰隊與海陸空三軍均會參與其中，規模之大將是多年罕見。看在北京眼裏，日本已不止是拋棄了以往猶抱琵琶半遮面的模糊策略，更是往中國背後插刀。

菅義偉政府上台後，在多方面都延續安倍路線，現在日方對華態度突變，有人相信與華府壓力有關，亦有人關注是否跟近期釣魚島爭議升溫有關。中國《海警法》上月實施，授權海警可對在中國海域從事非法行為的外國船舶動用武力，外長王毅強調這是「例行國內立法」，不針對特定國家。日本傳媒更披露，中方曾於2月下旬通過外交渠道與日方溝通，重申中方不會停止派海警船到釣島附近水域維護主權，但行動會確保克制，不會強行驅逐日方巡邏船及漁船，又或使用噴水槍等武器，然而東京當局反應強烈，日本海上保安廳長官更表示，針對中國實施《海警法》，日本不排除在釣島周邊使用武力。釣島爭議升溫，突顯兩國戰略互信不足，惟無論如何，中日是搬不開的鄰居，合則兩利，鬥則俱傷，近十年的歷史說明，妥善管控分歧促進合作，最符合中日共同利益，菅義偉改變對華政策，絕非明智之舉。

Abrupt changes in Sino-Japanese relations

Sino-Japanese relations have become stormy. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has criticised the Japanese government for going back on its promises, committing perfidy, stooping so low as to be at the US's beck and call and being in cahoots with the US. Such harsh words have rarely been heard in recent years.

The high-level dialogue between China and the US was held in Alaska today (March 19), the first face-to-face communication between high-ranking officials of the two countries since US President Joe Biden took office. With the current situation in mind, if both sides are able to "arrive at the meeting with sincerity and leave with understanding", it will be quite good actually. The rivalry between China and the US has a bearing on the world. Chinese Ambassador to the US Cui Tiankai has specifically mentioned that the development of bilateral relations between the US and other countries should not be targeted at a third country and should not harm the interests of a third party. If the US thinks that as long as it can line up a handful of countries to exert pressure on China, Beijing will compromise on its core interests, that will only lead to a dead end in Sino-US dialogue. These remarks were not only a statement of China's position before the Alaska dialogue, but also a response to the series of diplomatic manoeuvres taken by the Biden administration recently.

Within just two months since Biden took office, Washington has made frequent diplomatic moves. First, there was the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the Quad) between the US, Japan, Australia and India. Then there were the 2+2 meetings this week between the foreign and defence ministers of the US and Japan and those between the US and South Korea. These moves were all aimed at China. The Biden administration wants to woo its allies to put pressure on China, but they have reacted differently. For example, South Korea prefers to focus on the North Korean issue. At the G7 online summit last month, Germany and France did not seem to be following the US's leadership. In contrast, recent changes in Japan's attitude towards China are quite concerning.

In the joint statement released after the 2+2 talks between the US and Japan, it is emphasised that the Treaty of Mutual Cooperation and Security between the United States and Japan covers the Senkaku Islands (called the "Diaoyu Islands" by China). The statement says that the US and Japan oppose "any unilateral action that seeks to change the status quo", and Japan should strengthen its defence capabilities and the US-Japan alliance. Japanese defence minister Nobuo Kishi said that, "Japan is determined to use all means to protect Japanese territory". China reacted strongly to this, severely criticising the US and Japan for interfering in China's internal affairs and smearing China. Beijing is particularly angry at Japan for "satisfying the selfish interests of hindering China's rise", "betraying the overall interests of the region" and "undermining relations between China and Japan".

A spokesperson for China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has criticised Japan for debasing itself to be at the US's beck and call and for stooping so low as to be a strategic vassal state of the US. He used strong terms such as "inviting a wolf into its house," "being in cahoots with the US" and "shameless". But it was the phrase "going back on its promises and committing perfidy" that was the harshest. State-to-state relations aside, promises and justice are the most fundamental principle when it comes to interpersonal relations. That the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has used the phrase reflects China's belief that Japan's attitude towards China has undergone major changes. Sino-Japanese relations have changed abruptly. The red light is on.

The escalation of the disputes over the Diaoyu Islands highlights the lack of strategic mutual trust between Japan and China. However, regardless of the circumstances, China and Japan are neighbours that cannot be separated from each other. Cooperation between them will bring about mutual benefits, and conflicts, mutual harm.

中日關係驚變 紅燈已然亮起

中日外交起波瀾，外交部抨擊日本政府背信棄義，甘願仰人鼻息，與美國狼狽為奸；措辭之嚴厲，近年相當少見。

中美高層對話今天在阿拉斯加舉行，是美國總統拜登上台以來，兩國高層首度面對面溝通，以當前的形勢，若能做到「帶着誠意而來、帶着理解離開」，其實已很不錯。中美博弈牽動全球，中國駐美大使崔天凱特別提到，美國與其他國家發展雙邊關係，不應以第三國為目標、不應損害第三方利益，如果美方以為找幾個國家向中方施壓，北京便會在核心利益問題上妥協，只會令中美對話陷入死胡同。這番說話，既是中方在阿拉斯加對話前的一次立場說明，同時亦是對拜登政府最近連串外交動作的回應。

拜登上台短短兩個月，華府外交動作頻頻，由美日澳印「四方安全對話」，到本周的美日、美韓外長防長2+2會談，都是針對中國而來。拜登政府欲拉攏盟友向華施壓，各方反應不盡相同，例如韓國便寧可將焦點放在朝鮮問題；上月G7線上峰會，德法亦不見得緊跟美國調門。相比之下，近期日本對華態度變化，卻相當令人關注。

美日2+2會談聯合聲明，強調《日美安保條約》協防範圍涵蓋「尖閣諸島」（中國的釣魚島），美日反對任何單方面試圖改變現狀的行為，日本要加強國防能力，強化美日同盟，防衛相岸信夫更稱，「日方決心用所有手段，守護日本領土」。中方對此反應強烈，嚴辭抨擊美日干涉中國內政、抹黑中國，對於日本「為滿足阻遏中國崛起的一己之私」，「出賣本地區整體利益」、「破壞中日關係」，北京尤其不滿。

外交部發言人批評日方甘願仰人鼻息，充當美國戰略附庸，「引狼入室」、「狼狽為奸」、「令人不恥」等強烈措辭一一用上，當中又以「背信棄義」一語說得最狠。莫說國與國關係，就算是人際交往，信義也是最為根本。外交部用上「背信棄義」這麼重的措辭，反映中方認為日本對華態度出現重大變化。中日關係驚變，紅燈已然亮起。

釣島爭議升溫，突顯兩國戰略互信不足，惟無論如何，中日是搬不開的鄰居，合則兩利，鬥則俱傷。