泛民需要再定位 回歸真正「和理非」

 <轉載自2021年3月18日 明報 社評>

香港選舉制度修改細節待定，中央官員強調「愛國者治港」並非搞「清一色」，泛民中的愛國者依然可以依法參選和當選，有民主派中人則質疑繼續參選的價值。新格局下，民主派在體制內的空間顯著收窄，乃是客觀現實，然而多年來民主派最大政治資本，就是龐大選民支持基礎，放棄參選，不僅失去體制內的資源和發聲平台，更是放棄運用手上僅有的政治本錢，泛民需要深思熟慮，不應意氣用事。過去10年，泛民激進化，反修例風暴由初期的「反送中」演變成「反中」，中央重手整治，香港已無法回到從前，激進路線已走進了死胡同，民主派必須重新思考定位路線，回歸到真正的「和理非」（和平、理性、非暴力），與港獨、暴力、攬炒等劃清界線，才能重新穩住腳步再上路。

泛民看長遠非爭朝夕 若非委曲求全應參選

泛民未來在體制內還有多少政治空間，備受各方關注。港澳辦常務副主任張曉明表示，不能將「反中亂港分子」，與反對派簡單畫上等號，泛民中也有愛國者，這些人將來仍可依法參選和當選。泛民人士則甚為悲觀。民主黨前主席李永達估計，日後民主派在立法會可能只得十席八席；另一位前主席何俊仁則指出，根據人大決定，未來行政長官選舉，參選人在5個界別都要取得至少15張提名票，泛民中人若要參選，就要向人大政協拜票，民主派未必再有機會推舉一名候選人；倘若連參選立法會也一樣要「集齊」5界提名，如此屈辱寧可不參選。

修改選舉制度尚未出爐，立法會提名門檻未知，然而可以肯定的是，新格局下泛民的政治空間必定顯著收窄。中央部門在港舉行3天座談會，張曉明稱，人大副委員長王晨表示特區選委會將產生「較大比例議席」，意即選委議席將比分區直選及功能組別席位多。換句話說，立法會分區直選議席，不可能再有35席。20多年來各次分區直選，泛民平均都能取得五成半至六成選票，隨着分區直選議席顯著減少，即使泛民中的愛國者能夠入閘，在立法會能夠取下的議席也一定減少。

泛民之所以為泛民，乃是除了民生主張，還有民主訴求；反對派之所以為反對派，乃是他們在多方面都跟當權者的立場有別。反對派與當權者毋須勢不兩立，合理關係是和而不同，一定要反對派向當權者「拜票」求提名，跟和而不同格格不入，然而如果新規定不是太苛刻、不用委曲求全，泛民仍應參與選舉。這既是為了讓選民有一個選擇，亦是為了泛民自身。放棄參選，等於少了在體制內發聲這一重要平台，沒有來自體制的資源，泛民長遠發展將更艱難。當然，泛民亦要明白，過去10年的激進路線已經碰壁，無法再走下去，必須重新思考定位和路線。

這陣子，不時有人談到，如果民主派已故元老司徒華仍然在生，能否被歸入「愛國者」之列。逝者已矣，香港飽歷政治巨變，無人可以斷言司徒華會怎麼看待佔領運動或反修例風暴，假設性的問題，只能有揣測性的答案，然而現在反思司徒華留下的政治遺產和遺訓，確有一定價值。司徒華高舉反共旗幟，同時亦熱愛國家民族，從來沒有人懷疑他「反中」，他敢於向當權者說不，同樣敢於跟當權者對話，由1980年代參與《基本法》起草，到10多年前支持民主黨跟中聯辦談判政改，他的政治作風，都是既講原則，亦求務實。司徒華不走投機路線，亦不會隨波逐流。2009年，泛民中人推動「五區總辭」，司徒華作為民主黨「黨鞭」，拒絕參與這場「政治正確」有餘、實際無補於事的政治公關騷，沒有被激進派牽着鼻子走。

分清「反共」與「反中」 莫忘司徒華政治智慧

回看這10年，泛民愈益激進化，「敵人的敵人就是朋友」，港獨也好、暴力也好，但凡可以借來增加政治籌碼的，無任歡迎，這邊口講「和理非」，那邊卻同情暴力；這邊說支持一國兩制，那邊卻沒有跟港獨劃清界線，只說「不支持」「不贊成」，卻不肯說一聲「反對」；這邊強調普世價值，那邊卻又附和右翼民粹。去年初疫情爆發，有民主黨中委批評，食肆公然拒絕招待內地人，是假防疫之名，行歧視之實，要求平機會主動調查，未料黨內少壯派群起圍攻，涉事中委無奈辭職。泛民在社交媒體民粹狂潮中隨波逐流，是否「反共不反中」，各方心裏有數，「民主黨中委事件」，不過是傳統泛民迷失的一個註腳。

「我們要準備二十年在野。」早在1980年代，司徒華已對回歸後香港的政治形勢，作出這樣預言，一般認為，司徒華說的20年只是虛數，真正意思是民主路漫漫。只爭朝夕無從，就應放眼長遠。司徒華在當權者面前是永遠的反對派，同時亦將「反共」與「反中」分得很清楚，現在泛民需要的正是這種認知和毅力。新制度能否為中間溫和力量冒起創造條件，還須拭目以待，無論如何，泛民必須回歸真正的「和理非」，與港獨、暴力、外部勢力和政治攬炒清晰切割，不要每次都要加上「不過」、「但是」這些附註。有人主張泛民杯葛選舉「打擊政權合法性」，實際效果隨時是毁掉自身的發展機會。無議席無資源無平台，只做壓力團體，如何促民主助民生，泛民需要想清楚。

Pan-dems need repositioning

How much political space the pan-democrats will still have in the future political system has attracted widespread attention. Zhang Xiaoming has stated that one cannot simply equate ''anti-China people who cause chaos in Hong Kong'' with the opposition, since there are also patriots among the pan-democrats. These people can still stand for election and be elected in accordance with the law in the future. But the pan-democrats are very pessimistic. Former chairman of the Democratic Party Lee Wing-tat estimates that the democrats may only have eight to ten seats in LegCo in the future. Ho Chun-yan, another former chairman, points out that according to the decision of the National People's Congress (NPC), candidates for future chief executive elections will have to get at least 15 nominations from each of the five sectors. If the pan-democrats want to stand in the election, they will have to solicit votes from the NPC and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference, meaning that democrats may not have the opportunity to nominate a candidate. If they are also required to gather nominations from each of the five sectors just to run for LegCo, they would rather refrain from running than endure such humiliation.

The specific amendment to the electoral system has not yet been made public, and the nomination threshold for LegCo elections is unknown. However, it is certain that the political space for the pan-democrats in the new system will definitely be significantly squeezed. The central department held a three-day symposium in Hong Kong. Zhang Xiaoming said that Wang Chen, vice chairman of the NPC, said that the Election Committee of the HKSAR will generate a ''larger proportion of seats'', meaning that there will be more seats for the Election Committee than for direct elections and functional constituencies. In other words, there will not be 35 direct election seats in LegCo anymore. In various geographical constituency direct elections over the past 20 years, the pan-democrats have obtained an average of 55% to 60% of the votes. With the significant reduction in the number of direct election seats, even if the patriots among the pan-democrats are allowed to run, the number of seats that they can get in LegCo will definitely be reduced.

The reason why the pan-democrats are so called is that, in addition to their propositions about bread-and-butter issues, they also demand democracy. They are called the opposition because they differ from those in power in many aspects. The opposition and those in power do not need to be antagonistic. A reasonable relationship is amicable difference. If the opposition must ''kowtow'' for nomination from those in power, that will be incompatible with ''amicable difference''. However, if the new regulations are not too harsh and do not require them to stoop to compromise, the pan-democrats should still participate in elections. This is not only to give voters a choice, but also for the sake of the pan-democrats themselves. Abandoning the election will mean depriving themselves of an important platform to make themselves heard within the system. Without the resources from the establishment, it will be even more difficult for the pan-democrats to develop in the long term. Of course, the pan-democrats must also understand that the radical course of the past ten years has hit a brick wall and cannot be pursued any further. They must rethink their positioning and political course.

Recently, some people have talked about whether the late pro-democracy veteran Szeto Wah would be classified as a ''patriot'' if he were still alive. He has passed away, and Hong Kong has undergone tremendous political changes. No one can say for sure how Szeto Wah would view the Occupy Movement and the Anti-extradition Movement. However, it is useful to reflect on Szeto Wah's political legacies and teachings now.

泛民需要再定位 回歸真正「和理非」

泛民未來在體制內還有多少政治空間，備受各方關注。張曉明表示，不能將「反中亂港分子」，與反對派簡單畫上等號，泛民中也有愛國者，這些人將來仍可依法參選和當選。泛民人士則甚為悲觀。民主黨前主席李永達估計，日後民主派在立法會可能只得十席八席；另一位前主席何俊仁則指出，根據人大決定，未來行政長官選舉，參選人在5個界別都要取得至少15張提名票，泛民中人若要參選，就要向人大政協拜票，民主派未必再有機會推舉一名候選人；倘若連參選立法會也一樣要「集齊」5界提名，如此屈辱寧可不參選。

修改選舉制度尚未出爐，立法會提名門檻未知，然而可以肯定的是，新格局下泛民的政治空間必定顯著收窄。中央部門在港舉行3天座談會，張曉明稱，人大副委員長王晨表示特區選委會將產生「較大比例議席」，意即選委議席將比分區直選及功能組別席位多。換句話說，立法會分區直選議席，不可能再有35席。20多年來各次分區直選，泛民平均都能取得五成半至六成選票，隨着分區直選議席顯著減少，即使泛民中的愛國者能夠入閘，在立法會能夠取下的議席也一定減少。

泛民之所以為泛民，乃是除了民生主張，還有民主訴求；反對派之所以為反對派，乃是他們在多方面都跟當權者的立場有別。反對派與當權者毋須勢不兩立，合理關係是和而不同，一定要反對派向當權者「拜票」求提名，跟和而不同格格不入，然而如果新規定不是太苛刻、不用委曲求全，泛民仍應參與選舉。這既是為了讓選民有一個選擇，亦是為了泛民自身。放棄參選，等於少了在體制內發聲這一重要平台，沒有來自體制的資源，泛民長遠發展將更艱難。當然，泛民亦要明白，過去10年的激進路線已經碰壁，無法再走下去，必須重新思考定位和路線。

這陣子，不時有人談到，若民主派已故元老司徒華仍在生，能否被歸入「愛國者」之列。逝者已矣，香港飽歷政治巨變，無人可斷言司徒華會怎看待佔領運動或反修例風暴，然而現在反思司徒華的政治遺產和遺訓，確有一定價值。