貿易談判美惡意滿滿 中方赴會偏向虎山行

<轉載自2019年5月7日 明報 社評>

中美貿易談判又添變數，美國總統特朗普突然要脅，周五起向2000億美元中國貨加徵關稅。一如早前美朝峰會，美方似乎又想在談判關鍵時刻，索要更多讓步，中方代表團如期赴美，是明知山有虎，偏向虎山行，倘若美方要求無理，中方應表明立場，甚至像金正恩般退席離場。中美貿易談判弔詭之處，在於貿易戰打擊經濟，驅使兩國談判，然而當協議在望、經濟股市反彈之際，美方似乎又以為有更多本錢施壓。如果華府談判目的是處理貿易不平衡，中美理應沒有解決不了的問題；倘若美方懷有惡意遏制中國發展，外界就要有臨門一腳談判破裂的最壞打算。

特朗普出爾反爾 手法近似「特金會」

去年12月「習特會」同意暫停加徵關稅，此後中美展開6輪磋商，特朗普不時說談判「非常順利」，刺激美股上揚。上周中美新一輪貿易談判在北京結束，白宮官員公開表示，談判可望未來兩周有結果，豈料不過數天，特朗普卻突然改口，由之前說「接近達成歷史協議」，變成「不滿談判進展太慢」，宣布本周五起「加碼」向2000億美元中國貨加徵關稅，由去年9月的10％增至25％。

特朗普這次變臉來得突然，惟亦毋須太過驚訝，說到底，去年6月初中美談判代表亦一度達成協議框架，未料之後美方出爾反爾，向華發動貿易戰。由《跨太平洋貿易伙伴協定》（TPP）到美俄《中程導彈條約》，對特朗普來說，國際協議也可隨時撕毁退出，何况尚未正式締訂的協議，今次最新發展再次突顯「特朗普因素」對全球經濟的風險。

當前中美貿易談判形勢，跟今年初美朝峰會臨門一腳急轉直下，頗有相似之處。當時外界原本亦以為，兩國至少可以達成某種協議，未料談判最終破裂。最初特朗普企圖將責任推到朝方身上，聲稱是朝鮮要求全面撤銷制裁，美方不能接受，云云。可是綜合後來美國傳媒和朝方說法，事件始末應該是美朝連番磋商後，朝方相信兩國已就「逐步棄核換取逐步撤銷制裁」取得共識，可是在關鍵時刻，特朗普卻開出新條件，要求朝鮮全面棄核，金正恩認為美方懷有惡意，提早離場。

現在中美貿易談判迎來關鍵時刻，特朗普意欲何為很快揭曉，一大可能是他想故伎重施，試圖以大幅加徵關稅脅迫中方，索要更大讓步，並以所謂「中方企圖重新談判」之說，諉過於人。綜合近月西方權威財經媒體說法，中美就增加購買美國貨、知識產權和技術轉移紛爭等方面，已有大致眉目，餘下主要矛盾點在於執行機制，以及去年6月以來美國對中國貨的關稅會否全部撤銷。

貿易戰開打以來，中方對於開放市場和知識產權等議題，態度是只要符合共同利益，什麼都可以談，惟一旦涉及經濟發展模式，中方會「企硬」，美方在產業補貼等問題上，並未取得多少甜頭。當下華府策略，是為日後再向中方索要「留一手」，包括保留部分關稅措施，以及在協議執行機制加入條款，變相容許美方可以隨時「反枱」，重新對中國貨加徵關稅，中方不得反擊。中方認為這些要求無理，強調必須撤去2000億美元中國貨關稅，任何執行機制必須雙向，美方有權做什麼，中方一樣有權。根據上周美國傳媒說法，中美本已同意在達成協議後，即時撤銷大部分關稅措施，惟現在又橫生枝節。

認清貿易談判弔詭處 中方應隨時「提早班師」

明年美國大選，盡快掃除貿易戰陰霾，有利特朗普爭取連任。今次特朗普忽然出招，除了反映他的賭徒風格，似乎亦與美國經濟走強有關。貿易戰對華經濟影響比對美國為大，惟中美政治制度有別，中方忍痛能力遠比美方強。中美貿易談判弔詭之處，在於貿易戰損害到美國經濟時，特朗普便有意願去談，可是一旦協議在望，美股和經濟表現轉強，白宮又以為有更多談判籌碼可以「極限施壓」。

去年底美國經濟轉弱、美股波動，特朗普為求托市，不斷強調會跟中方締訂協議；隨着美國首季GDP錄得3.2%強勁增長，沉寂一時的「美國經濟強勁談判佔優論」，又再出現在白宮國家經濟委員會主任庫德洛口中，然而必須指出，美國首季GDP亮麗，主要是靠政府開支增加，以及庫存和貿易改善撐起，作為經濟核心的消費開支和商業投資，增長僅為1.1%。與此同時，之前中方一系列刺激經濟措施，正漸漸發揮效用。就算從美方思維出發，當前美國的所謂「優勢」，不會比貿易戰初期為強，之前大半年美國在談判桌上做不到的事，看不到現在可以忽然做到。

美方在貿易談判上一再反覆，令人關注美方意圖不止是收窄貿易逆差，甚或爭取更大市場准入，而是要遏制中方發展空間。特朗普在本周新一輪談判前，突然威脅加徵關稅，中方代表團如期赴會偏向虎山行，除了要弄清特朗普有何意圖，客觀上亦可避免白宮有口實指控中方「破壞」談判。倘若美方惡意滿滿，提出無理由要求，中方應嚴辭拒絕，必要時更應該考慮提早「班師回國」。

China soldiers on amid US's animosity

IN a sudden act of belligerence, US president Donald Trump has ordered the imposition of tariffs on US$200 billion's worth of Chinese goods effective from Friday.

Last December, following the summit between Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, both sides agreed to delay the imposition of new tariffs. Six rounds of negotiations were held between China and the US subsequently, with Donald Trump claiming repeatedly that the negotiations "went very smoothly", sending US stocks rising. In the middle of last week, the latest round of trade negotiations concluded in Beijing. Officials of the White House said publicly that they expected an outcome in two weeks. Just several days later, however, Donald Trump made a sudden reversal, saying that he was unhappy that "The Trade Deal with China continues, but too slowly" even though he had earlier claimed that the two countries were about to reach a historic deal. He announced that he would ratchet up the pressure by increasing a tariff on US$200 billion's worth of Chinese goods from 10% last September to 25%.

Though out of the blue, Donald Trump's latest about-face is not too surprising. After all, early last June negotiators of both countries also claimed that they had agreed on the framework of a deal. But the US went back on its word unexpectedly and began a trade war on China. From the Trans-Pacific Partnership agreement to the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, to Donald Trump, it is not a problem to rescind or pull out of an international treaty, let alone an agreement not yet signed. The latest development demonstrates the risk to the global economy posed by the "Donald Trump" factor.

The latest situation in the China-US trade talks bears some similarities to the US-North Korea summit early this year, which unravelled just when a deal was in sight. At first outsiders believed that both sides could at least reach a certain kind of deal, but the negotiations broke down ultimately. Donald Trump tried to shift the blame onto North Korea, claiming that it was North Korea that demanded a full removal of sanctions, which the US could not accept. However, piecing together US media reports and North Korea's saying, it is believed that North Korea determined that the two countries had reached a consensus on "the gradual denuclearisation in exchange of gradual removal of sanctions" after several rounds of negotiations. However, just when things were at a critical moment, Donald Trump set out new conditions by demanding that North Korea completely denuclearise. Kim Jong-un left the negotiating table with the feeling that the US harboured bad intentions.

Now that trade talks between China and the US have reached a critical juncture as well, it will be known very soon what Trump wants. It is highly likely that he wants to use the same old trick and tries to threaten China with a massive hike of sanctions so as to clinch bigger concessions. He might also try to shift the blame by saying that "China tries to renegotiate". According to reports by financial news outlets of authority in recent months, the two countries had had some ideas about purchasing more US goods, copyright and transfer of technology. The remaining points of conflict are the mechanism for execution and whether the tariffs imposed on Chinese goods by the US since last June would all be lifted.

Donald Trump suddenly threatened to impose new tariffs just before the beginning of a new round of negotiations this week. Knowing the danger ahead, the Chinese delegation set off for the US as scheduled not only because they want to know with certainty Trump's intentions, but also because they want to prevent the White House from accusing China of sabotaging the talks. However, if the US is full of animosity and raises unreasonable demands, China should reject them sternly and cut short the trip and return to China if necessary.

貿易談判美惡意滿滿 中方赴會偏向虎山行

美國總統特朗普突然要脅，周五起向2000億美元中國貨加徵關稅。

去年12月「習特會」同意暫停加徵關稅，此後中美展開6輪磋商，特朗普不時說談判「非常順利」，刺激美股上揚。上周中美新一輪貿易談判在北京結束，白宮官員公開表示，談判可望未來兩周有結果，豈料不過數天，特朗普卻突然改口，由之前說「接近達成歷史協議」，變成「不滿談判進展太慢」，宣布本周五起「加碼」向2000億美元中國貨加徵關稅，由去年9月的10％增至25％。

特朗普這次變臉來得突然，惟亦毋須太過驚訝，說到底，去年6月初中美談判代表亦一度達成協議框架，未料之後美方出爾反爾，向華發動貿易戰。由《跨太平洋貿易伙伴協定》（TPP）到美俄《中程導彈條約》，對特朗普來說，國際協議也可隨時撕毁退出，何况尚未正式締訂的協議，今次最新發展再次突顯「特朗普因素」對全球經濟的風險。

當前中美貿易談判形勢，跟今年初美朝峰會臨門一腳急轉直下，頗有相似之處。當時外界原本亦以為，兩國至少可以達成某種協議，未料談判最終破裂。最初特朗普企圖將責任推到朝方身上，聲稱是朝鮮要求全面撤銷制裁，美方不能接受，云云。可是綜合後來美國傳媒和朝方說法，事件始末應該是美朝連番磋商後，朝方相信兩國已就「逐步棄核換取逐步撤銷制裁」取得共識，可是在關鍵時刻，特朗普卻開出新條件，要求朝鮮全面棄核，金正恩認為美方懷有惡意，提早離場。

現在中美貿易談判迎來關鍵時刻，特朗普意欲何為很快揭曉，一大可能是他想故伎重施，試圖以大幅加徵關稅脅迫中方，索要更大讓步，並以所謂「中方企圖重新談判」之說，諉過於人。綜合近月西方權威財經媒體說法，中美就增加購買美國貨、知識產權和技術轉移紛爭等方面，已有大致眉目，餘下主要矛盾點在於執行機制，以及去年6月以來美國對中國貨的關稅會否全部撤銷。

特朗普在本周新一輪談判前，突然威脅加徵關稅，中方代表團如期赴會偏向虎山行，除了要弄清特朗普有何意圖，客觀上亦可避免白宮有口實指控中方「破壞」談判。倘若美方惡意滿滿，提出無理由要求，中方應嚴辭拒絕，必要時更應該考慮提早「班師回國」。