<轉載自2019年1月7日 明報 社評>
就在中共總書記習近平在北京紀念《告台灣同胞書》發表40周年大會上發出「祖國必須統一，也必然統一」的喊話翌日，4名重量級台獨元老聯署發表公開信，呼籲蔡英文總統「放棄連任」、「交出行政權，退居二線」。聯署者之一的總統府資政吳澧培明言，他們對蔡英文最大的不滿是在推動台獨方面不夠硬、「做法保守」，又指美國現在對兩岸的態度「已經發生改變」，「可以好好利用」。看來，促統與急獨兩邊的壓力都陡然提升，蔡英文政府未來一年如何取態，美國又有何動作，格外引人注目。台灣海峽的局勢可謂戰雲密佈，兵凶戰危。
蔡英文兩岸政策轉硬 受敗選中美關係影響
2019年新年伊始，蔡英文在元旦講話中就提出了「中國必須正視中華民國台灣存在的事實、必須尊重2300萬人民對自由民主的堅持、必須以和平對等的方式處理雙方歧異、必須是政府跟政府所授權的公權力機構坐下來談」的「四個必須」表述，並提出為兩岸交流建立「民生安全」、「資訊安全」及「民主」三道防護網，其表態已是上任以來最為強硬的。在習近平發表講話當天，蔡英文即作出決絕回應，稱台灣絕對不會接受一國兩制，絕大多數台灣民意也堅決反對一國兩制，對於習提出兩岸各政黨、各界別推舉代表性人士開展民主協商一事，蔡也警告稱，未經政府授權，沒有任何人、任何團體有權力代表台灣政治協商。
與上任之初強調的維持現狀、堅守中華民國憲法的表述相比，蔡英文態度的這種變化，固然與國際情勢、特別是中美關係的變化有關，過去一年來，美國為牽制中國，先後通過《2018國防授權法》、《台灣旅行法》等多項法例，就在元旦前夕，特朗普還簽署了《亞洲再保障倡議法》，在對台軍售、美台官方交往、軍事交流等多個方面大幅鬆綁。加上過去一年大陸軍機戰艦繞台、民進黨施政不利及在「九合一選舉」中大敗，這些都是令蔡英文的兩岸政策由軟變硬的原因。
但看在深綠的獨派眼中，蔡英文的舉措仍不夠硬，於是吳澧培和前總統府資政彭明敏、長老教會牧師高俊明、中研院前院長李遠哲4名獨派元老就發出了上述向蔡英文「逼宮」的公開信。
四老的逼宮信不排除有綠營內部派系鬥爭的背景，如4人被指力挺民視董事長、台獨組織喜樂島聯盟發起人郭倍宏2020年出選總統，挑戰蔡英文，因此，逼宮信也標誌着2020年總統選戰的開跑。但逼宮信也引發了年輕的民進黨人不滿，聯署挺蔡，強調民主社會「不需要保皇或逼宮的算計」。但是，逼宮信確實反映了深綠獨派對於蔡英文推動台獨步伐太緩太慢、對柯文哲太軟、對藍營讓步太多的焦慮。
四老逼宮標誌選戰開跑 深綠焦慮或引統獨攤牌
獨派的焦慮，公開說是憂心「台灣會沉淪」，實質也是基於對國際形勢和兩岸情勢的判斷，擔心蔡英文錯失法理台獨的最佳機會窗口。例如吳澧培在逼宮信發表後受訪時就明說，他們認為蔡在中美之間的平衡取態是「非常保守」，「難道不應該一面倒向美國傾斜嗎？」，「美國也不會要來統一台灣……美國只會幫你，但不會害你」。他解釋說， 近年美國對大陸和台灣的態度「已經發生改變」，「對台灣很多有利的措施……可以好好利用，不用擔心特朗普未來若選不上，政策又改變」。他又稱，「因為如果她（2020年）選不上、國民黨選上的話，親中的政權，再加上15個縣市，也是親中的地方縣市，那麼中國滲透各種各樣的方法，軟的硬的，叫我們怎麼撐得了？」
這一番話，充分反映了島內獨派的危機意識，在「九合一選舉」的公投中，「東奧正名」提案被否決，公開贊成「九二共識」的國民黨候選人韓國瑜在綠營票倉高雄市逆轉勝，令很多獨派連台獨公投能否過關都沒有了以往的自信。
韓國瑜針對「習五點」提出的兩個「不要懷疑」，可謂是兩岸情勢的真實寫照：不要懷疑共產黨必須收復台灣的決心，不要懷疑台灣人民追求民主自由的決心。他表示，對於這兩個「不要懷疑」，他自己也沒有解答，提出來是讓大家思考，認知處境的艱苦。
一邊是大陸促統時間表的出爐，一邊是獨派推動急獨的焦慮，統獨攤牌危機重重，蔡英文在餘下一年多任期內的政策選擇空間十分有限，而美國從台海兩岸中漁利的空間則又大增，台海已再度成為全球少數火藥桶之一，兩岸關係正面臨1990年代中期台海危機以來最凶險的時刻。
Taiwan Strait overshadowed by spectre of war
THE day after Xi Jinping, general secretary of the Communist Party of
China (CPC), issued in Beijing the declaration that "the country must be
unified and without doubt will be unified" on the 40th anniversary of the
issuance of the "Message to Compatriots in Taiwan", four heavyweights
in Taiwan's pro-independence camp published an open letter, calling on
president Tsai Ing-wen to "give up her reelection bid" and "hand
over the administrative power and take a back seat".
No sooner had the year 2019 begun than Tsai put forward the
"four-must" argument that "China must pay proper regard to the
fact that the Republic of China — Taiwan exists, must respect 23 million
people's persistence in freedom and democracy, must handle the differences
between both sides by putting both sides on an equal footing, and must (agree
that) talks can only be held between governments and organisations with public
power authorised by governments" in her New Year speech. She also proposed
the creation of three lines of defence (security of people's livelihood,
security of information and democracy) for exchanges across the strait. The
speech marked her toughest stance on the issue since she took office. On the
day Xi made his speech, Tsai responded resolutely by saying that Taiwan would not
accept "One country, two systems" and that the Taiwanese public was
overwhelmingly against "One country, two systems". As for Xi's
suggestion that all parties and sectors across the strait recommend
representatives to engage in democratic consultations, Tsai warned that no
person or organisation had the power to represent Taiwan to take part in
political consultations without the authorisation of the government.
Tsai's new stance stands in contrast with what she adopted early in her
presidency, when she emphasised maintaining the status quo and adhering to the
constitution of the Republic of China. This, of course, has to do with the
international situation, particularly the changes in Sino-US relations. Over
the past year, the US, in an attempt to contain China, has adopted one after
another the National Defense Authorisation Act, the Taiwan Travel Act and other
bills. Prior to the turn of the year, Donald Trump signed the Asia Reassurance
Initiative Act, which drastically lifted restrictions on arms sales to Taiwan,
official interactions between the US and Taiwan and military interactions.
Mainland warplanes' and warships' circumnavigation of Taiwan, the setbacks
suffered by the Democratic Progressive Party in its governance and its crushing
defeat in the "nine-in-one" elections over the past year have also
contributed to the toughening of Tsai's cross-strait policies.
But to the eyes of deep-green proponents of independence, Tsai's
postures are still not aggressive enough. That was why Wu Li-pei, Peng Ming-min
(former Senior Adviser to the Taiwanese President), Reverend Dr Chun-Ming Kao
(a minister of the Presbyterian Church in Taiwan) and Yuan Tseh Lee (former
President of the Academia Sinica), four veteran pro-independence politicians,
published the open letter trying to force Tsai to renounce power.
Sandwiched between the unveiling of mainland China's timetable for
unification and the pro-independence camp's anxiety-driven push to seek hasty
independence, Tsai, facing the crisis of a showdown between the pro-unification
and pro-independence camps, has little room for manoeuvre with one year or so
remaining in her presidency. Meanwhile the US has seen vastly expanded room to
take advantage of the cross-strait situation. As the Taiwan Strait is once again
one of the few tinderboxes in the world, cross-strait relations are under the
gravest threat since the Taiwan Strait crisis in the mid-1990s.
京促統台獨派逼宮 台海上空戰雲密佈
就在中共總書記習近平在北京紀念《告台灣同胞書》發表40周年大會上發出「祖國必須統一，也必然統一」的喊話翌日，4名重量級台獨元老聯署發表公開信，呼籲蔡英文總統「放棄連任」、「交出行政權，退居二線」。
2019年新年伊始，蔡英文在元旦講話中就提出了「中國必須正視中華民國台灣存在的事實、必須尊重2300萬人民對自由民主的堅持、必須以和平對等的方式處理雙方歧異、必須是政府跟政府所授權的公權力機構坐下來談」的「四個必須」表述，並提出為兩岸交流建立「民生安全」、「資訊安全」及「民主」三道防護網，其表態已是上任以來最為強硬的。在習近平發表講話當天，蔡英文即作出決絕回應，稱台灣絕對不會接受一國兩制，絕大多數台灣民意也堅決反對一國兩制，對於習提出兩岸各政黨、各界別推舉代表性人士開展民主協商一事，蔡也警告稱，未經政府授權，沒有任何人、任何團體有權力代表台灣政治協商。
與上任之初強調的維持現狀、堅守中華民國憲法的表述相比，蔡英文態度的這種變化，固然與國際情勢、特別是中美關係的變化有關，過去一年來，美國為牽制中國，先後通過《2018國防授權法》、《台灣旅行法》等多項法例，就在元旦前夕，特朗普還簽署了《亞洲再保障倡議法》，在對台軍售、美台官方交往、軍事交流等多個方面大幅鬆綁。加上過去一年大陸軍機戰艦繞台、民進黨施政不利及在「九合一選舉」中大敗，這些都是令蔡英文的兩岸政策由軟變硬的原因。
但看在深綠的獨派眼中，蔡英文的舉措仍不夠硬，於是吳澧培和前總統府資政彭明敏、長老教會牧師高俊明、中研院前院長李遠哲4名獨派元老就發出了上述向蔡英文「逼宮」的公開信。
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