小我為先民主失效 英國脫歐成荒謬劇

<轉載自2018年12月12日 明報 社評>

英國與歐盟談判兩年達成的脫歐方案，面臨胎死腹中。首相文翠珊眼見方案勢遭國會大比數否決，臨時轉軚押後表決，爭取跟歐盟重新談判，然而不見得有望出現戲劇性變化。英國脫歐之路已經走進死胡同，英鎊跌見近20個月低位，大有「低處未算低」之勢。兩年前英國公投脫歐，是一個罔顧現實的決定，就算談判人員有天大本事，亦不可能令任性決定變得明智。英國脫歐已變成一齣荒謬劇，太多人以小我為先，不以大我為重，導致民主失效無法化解危機，事態發展沒有最荒謬，只有更荒謬。

脫歐後實際仍「留歐」 文翠珊方案難過關

「有人說，民主是最壞的政府形式——除了其他已經試過的政府模式之外。」71年前，英國首相邱吉爾說了這句名言。民主可貴之處，在於防止專制獨裁，惟不擔保決策一定明智，當前英國的困局，正是最佳寫照，邱吉爾泉下有知，恐怕也會慨嘆為何英國會淪落到如斯田地。2016年英國公投脫歐，以理論上「最民主」的方式，作出最草率的決定。在右翼民粹主義煽動之下，太多選民以為只要脫歐，英國就可從歐盟手上「贏回主權」，少了外人爭飯碗，就業將有更多保障，總之船到橋頭自然直，一切脫歐細節問題都有法子解決，然而事實證明這完全是一廂情願的幻想。

政客空談不着邊際理念很容易，現實是否可行卻是另一回事。英國融入歐洲數十年，雙方早已緊緊扣連，現在強行切割，難度猶如分開連體嬰。雖然英國脫歐對歐盟也有一定經濟打擊，可是英國損失明顯大得多。今年初英國政府內部分析顯示，倘若明年3月要在沒有協議下「無序脫歐」，政府將面對800億鎊財政「黑洞」，英國經濟將重挫。

英國脫歐荒謬之處，是英方就算甘願付出沉重經濟代價，也無法徹底脫歐。公投前，歐洲方面已有人警告，北愛爾蘭邊界是棘手問題，由於愛爾蘭是歐盟一員，英國若要硬脫歐，北愛與愛爾蘭之間便要有硬邊界，人貨出入必須通關，可能違反北愛和議，兩地愛爾蘭裔民眾勢必反對。如果英國當局硬來，勢令北愛獨立訴求重燃。

英國脫歐三大荒謬 二度公投未必上算

英國要留住北愛，北愛則不想與愛爾蘭有硬邊界，文翠珊與歐盟達成的脫歐方案，提出折衷做法，雙方同意繼續磋商「可行永久方案」，在未有協議前會啟動「後備方案」，讓包括北愛在內的英國「暫時」留在歐洲關稅同盟。問題是硬邊界要麼有要麼沒有，很難中間落墨，未來最有可能的情况，是遲遲找不到替代方案，「後備方案」變成長期方案，意味英國「脫歐」後實際仍然「留歐」，此乃荒謬之一。

文翠珊與歐盟達成的是軟脫歐方案，意即未來英國仍將與歐盟維持較緊密關係，減少脫歐衝擊。文翠珊以為在「無序脫歐災難」與「唯一脫歐方案」之間二擇其一，多數議員會在站在她的一邊，未料事與願違，脫歐派不滿方案是「假脫歐」，留歐派則認為，既然脫歐不乾不脆，為何不索性留在歐盟，保留現有的發言權。文翠珊眼見方案無望通過，唯有陣前轉軚押後表決。文翠珊希望跟歐盟再談條件，可是歐盟已表明充其量只能稍作修飾，協議難有大變；綜觀當前英國國內政治形勢，也看不到方案有機會大逆轉通過。英國國會最遲要在1月21日通過脫歐方案，文翠珊的拖字訣隨時誤己誤國。

文翠珊臨陣退縮威信掃地，發動不信任投票攆她下台，不過是舉手之勞。問題是朝野有分量政客都不想在這個時刻接任首相，挽狂瀾於既倒，現時有意挑戰首相職位的，均不似是真正將相之才。外界盛傳文翠珊相位不穩已有數月，一直未見下文。文翠珊已失管治權威，卻因人人在打小算盤，無意拉她下馬，得以苟延殘喘，此乃荒謬之二。

脫歐或留歐，是當前英國社會最大裂痕，保守黨和工黨內部嚴重分裂，正是具體反映。文翠珊和保守黨已經無法駕馭局面，在野工黨亦不想冒着加深黨內分裂風險、得罪支持該黨的脫歐派選民，只好採取和稀泥立場。工黨領袖郝爾彬主張跟歐盟重新談判，爭取更好協議，若無果則舉行第二次脫歐公投，換言之就是將應否脫歐的歷史責任，再度推卸給全國選民，工黨毋須表態只負責執行。

誠然，工黨可以自圓其說「尊重民主」，問題是當前英國社會撕裂，現在政黨將皮球踢給同樣分裂的全國選民，不見得一定能扭轉乾坤。倘若公投結果堅持脫歐，死局固然不變；就算公投決定留歐，除非出乎意料大勝，否則脫歐派一定抗議留歐派輸打贏要，對立衝突沒完沒了。政黨陷入死胡同，卻想靠同樣陷入死胡同的選民打救，此乃荒謬之三。英國脫歐死局的出現，究其原因就是太多人只考慮小我利益，不是從大我角度考慮問題。不少選民遭政客誤導，看不清國家長遠利害，不同黨派政客各懷鬼胎，考慮政治前途多於國家前途，導致民主失效，無力解決問題。英國脫歐之路愈走愈窄，前景未許樂觀。

Democracy fails in the Brexit farce

THE Brexit (Britain's exit from the European Union) deal that came of two years' talks with the EU is now facing a premature demise. Aware that the deal would be voted down by a wide margin if tabled to Parliament, British Prime Minister Theresa May made a U-turn at the eleventh hour and delayed the scheduled vote. While May said she would try to renegotiate the deal with the EU, it is doubtful any dramatic changes will come up. With Brexit in a blind alley, the pound has dived to a 20-month low and may dip even further. The vote to leave the EU in the referendum two years ago was unrealistic. Even the most capable negotiator cannot turn such a wild decision into a wise one. The Brexit quest has become a farce. Too many people have put self-interest above the common good, resulting in the failure of democracy and incapability to solve the crisis. The absurdity of future developments could be without limit.

"It has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time," late British Prime Minister Winston Churchill famously remarked 71 years ago. Democracy is treasured for its prevention of autocracy or dictatorship but it cannot guarantee that all decisions are wise. The UK's latest turmoil is an excellent example. Perhaps Churchill's spirit would bemoan the mess Britain has got into. In the 2016 Brexit referendum, the rashest possible decision was made by way of, theoretically, the "most democratic" process. At the instigation of right-wing populism, most voters thought that once withdrawn from the EU, Britain would be able to "win back its sovereignty" from the EU. They thought that would mean fewer newcomers competing with them for jobs and thus higher job security. In short, they thought things would take care of themselves and all the minutiae in the exit process would be solved in the end. However, as it has turned out, all that was merely wishful thinking.

It may be easy for politicians to talk emptily about far-fetched concepts. But whether it is feasible to put the concepts into actual practice is another thing. The UK has been integrated with Europe for decades; they have become inextricably entwined. A vigorous attempt to separate them is as difficult as separating a pair of conjoined twins. Although Britain's withdrawal will definitely deal a blow to the EU's economy, the potential loss faced by the UK side will be obviously much bigger. An internal analysis by the British government at the beginning of this year showed that in the event of a "disorderly Brexit" with no deal next March, Britain will face a budget "black hole" of 80 billion pounds and the UK economy will take a pounding.

But the absurdity of Brexit is such that even if the UK is willing to pay a heavy economic price, a complete withdrawal will still be impossible. Well before the referendum, the EU side had already warned that the border of Northern Ireland, a part of Britain, would be a thorny issue. Ireland is a member of the EU. If Britain opts for a hard Brexit, a hard border will have to be drawn between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. That means people or goods crossing the border will be required to go through the customs or immigration checks, which may be in violation of the Northern Ireland Peace Agreement and will definitely be opposed by Irish residents on both sides. Any forceful measure by the British authorities is bound to reignite calls for Northern Ireland's independence.

The Brexit deadlock was caused by the fact that too many people considered their self-interest rather than the common good. Many voters were misled by politicians and failed to see clearly the long term interests of the country. Politicians from different parties harbour hidden intentions of various sorts and put their own political career above the future of the nation. All this has led to the failure of democracy and incapability to solve the problems. It seems the Brexit path is becoming increasingly narrow. The outlook may not be bright.

小我為先民主失效 英國脫歐成荒謬劇

英國與歐盟談判兩年達成的脫歐方案，面臨胎死腹中。首相文翠珊眼見方案勢遭國會大比數否決，臨時轉軚押後表決，爭取跟歐盟重新談判，然而不見得有望出現戲劇性變化。英國脫歐之路已經走進死胡同，英鎊跌見近20個月低位，大有「低處未算低」之勢。兩年前英國公投脫歐，是一個罔顧現實的決定，就算談判人員有天大本事，亦不可能令任性決定變得明智。英國脫歐已變成一齣荒謬劇，太多人以小我為先，不以大我為重，導致民主失效無法化解危機，事態發展沒有最荒謬，只有更荒謬。

「有人說，民主是最壞的政府形式——除了其他已經試過的政府模式之外。」71年前，英國首相邱吉爾說了這句名言。民主可貴之處，在於防止專制獨裁，惟不擔保決策一定明智，當前英國的困局，正是最佳寫照，邱吉爾泉下有知，恐怕也會慨嘆為何英國會淪落到如斯田地。2016年英國公投脫歐，以理論上「最民主」的方式，作出最草率的決定。在右翼民粹主義煽動之下，太多選民以為只要脫歐，英國就可從歐盟手上「贏回主權」，少了外人爭飯碗，就業將有更多保障，總之船到橋頭自然直，一切脫歐細節問題都有法子解決，然而事實證明這完全是一廂情願的幻想。

政客空談不着邊際理念很容易，現實是否可行卻是另一回事。英國融入歐洲數十年，雙方早已緊緊扣連，現在強行切割，難度猶如分開連體嬰。雖然英國脫歐對歐盟也有一定經濟打擊，可是英國損失明顯大得多。今年初英國政府內部分析顯示，倘若明年3月要在沒有協議下「無序脫歐」，政府將面對800億鎊財政「黑洞」，英國經濟將重挫。

英國脫歐荒謬之處，是英方就算甘願付出沉重經濟代價，也無法徹底脫歐。公投前，歐洲方面已有人警告，北愛爾蘭邊界是棘手問題，由於愛爾蘭是歐盟一員，英國若要硬脫歐，北愛與愛爾蘭之間便要有硬邊界，人貨出入必須通關，可能違反北愛和議，兩地愛爾蘭裔民眾勢必反對。如果英國當局硬來，勢令北愛獨立訴求重燃。

英國脫歐死局的出現，究其原因就是太多人只考慮小我利益，不是從大我角度考慮問題。不少選民遭政客誤導，看不清國家長遠利害，不同黨派政客各懷鬼胎，考慮政治前途多於國家前途，導致民主失效，無力解決問題。英國脫歐之路愈走愈窄，前景未許樂觀。