<轉載自2018年12月10日 明報 社評>
國務院以及下屬多個部委上周推出了多項「穩就業」措施，總理李克強也在經濟形勢座談會上呼籲：「各級政府要把就業優先放在突出位置，有就業就有財富增長，就有社會穩定發展。」這顯示當局預見到，在中美貿易戰陰霾揮之不去下，內地明年經濟壓力將面臨極大困難，就業作為社會穩定的「安全閥」，就成為重中之重，需要未雨綢繆。
內地現嚴峻徵兆 連串措施穩就業
今年7月31日，中共中央政治局會議提出了「六穩」方針，其中「穩就業」位居首位，排在穩金融、穩外貿、穩外資、穩投資、穩預期之前。李克強11月30日發出「把就業優先放在突出位置」的呼籲後不到一周，國務院上周三就發出《關於做好當前和今後一個時期促進就業工作的若干意見》（簡稱《意見》），內容包括對不裁員或少裁員的企業，將返還其上年度繳納的一半失業保險費；將就業見習補貼範圍由未就業的大學畢業生，擴展至16至24歲的所有失業青少年；符合條件的創業者，可申領15萬元（人民幣，下同）創業擔保貸款；小微企業當年新招聘人數達到公司現有員工數25%（超過100人的企業達到15%）並簽1年以上長約，可申請的創業擔保貸款金額從200萬提高到300萬元等。
對於當局的連串舉措，人力資源和社會保障部副部長張義珍在記者會上解釋是，當前內地就業局勢雖總體穩定，但「穩中有變、穩中有難」，其中「穩中有難」一詞極為罕見，反映內地就業形勢確實出現了嚴峻徵兆。較早前，有內地市場公司發現，今年4月至9月，互聯網上消失了202萬個招聘廣告，其中二線城市最多，佔68％，民營中小微企佔大多數。以行業計，受影響較大的包括金融、影視傳媒、貿易、玩具、家具家電、建築工程、採礦冶煉，這些行業今年受信貸緊縮、金融監管、追逃漏稅、貿易戰、環保限產、樓市低迷等影響，就業萎縮的原因顯而易見。
根據有關理論，中國GDP每下降1個百分點，就會減少100萬至200萬個職位，出口每下降1個百分點，亦影響30萬至50萬人的飯碗。由此可見，中美貿易戰對內地就業的影響尚未完全浮現。反而前些年「騰籠換鳥」、淘汰落後生產力，以及去年開始的去過剩產能、加大環保力度，對就業的影響明顯。事實上，內地一些並非低端的製造業企業，近年一直在向越南等東南亞國家轉移。越南今年的進出口貿易額將超過其本地國民生產總值（GDP），貿易順差大增，大有成為新的世界工廠之勢，部分就拜中國產業轉移所賜。
產業轉移人口老化 穩中有變扣安全帶
根據中國人民大學就業研究所所長曾湘泉預測，今年內地就業總量將出現自1960年以來的首次下降，就業總人數將在7億7504萬至7億7600萬之間，較去年7億7640萬減少約40萬至140萬人，而這可能只是一個長期趨勢的開始。勞動參與率下降，一方面是55歲以上勞動年齡人口提前退休，人口老齡化令部分低技術職位出現有工無人做，另一方面青少年的教育程度漸高，高技術職位僧多粥少，競爭激烈，突顯就業形勢確實「穩中有變」。
從明年的就業形勢看，一方面，2019年大學畢業生人數將達860萬，再創歷史新高，職位需求增加；另一方面，經濟下行壓力之下，就業壓力巨大。雖然今年10月份全國城鎮調查失業率僅為4.9%，與9月持平，但專家預料年末或會上升至5%，顯示就業壓力開始上升。就業先行指標低於景氣線並處於下行區，製造業和非製造業的採購經理指數（PMI）中的僱員指數都出現下滑。
根據內地經濟數據預測，中國經濟2019年可能會迎來2015年後的第二次觸底。全球經濟放緩令外部環境惡劣，中美貿易90日談判期3月1日屆滿，談不成固然要面臨美方天文數字關稅的懲罰，嚴重衝擊出口；即使談成，中方若重大讓步，對國內相關產業的衝擊亦難逆料。同時各類債務到期，可能出現違約破產潮，金融風險外溢勢影響實體經濟。因此，預料明年內地經濟下行壓力將再加大，就業形勢更形嚴峻。
正如航機降落時乘客要扣緊安全帶一樣，面對下行的經濟壓力，中央有關就業《意見》的出台，與近期密鑼緊鼓的支持民企舉動，都是扣緊安全帶之舉，因為內地民企的就業人數佔城鎮就業總人數八成、新增就業數的九成，反映北京應對經濟風險的思維，已經從「事後救火」轉向未雨綢繆。有見及此，香港的企業家和小投資者，似乎也應扣緊安全帶，準備好迎接充滿挑戰的2019年。
China's employment predicament
LAST week the State Council and a number of ministries and commissions
under it unveiled several measures to "stabilise the employment
market". Premier Li Keqiang also said during a seminar on the state of the
Chinese economy that "Governments at all levels should put employment high
on their agenda, because it can bring in economic growth and social
stability." This shows that the authorities foresee that as the spectre of
the trade war between the US and China hovers, the mainland economy will be in
enormous difficulty next year. Employment, as a "safety valve" that
ensures social stability, will be the issue of the utmost importance, and it is
necessary to plan ahead before the situation changes.
On 31st July this year, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central
Committee proposed six "stabilising" tasks. The "stabilisation
of employment" took precedence over the stabilisation of finances, foreign
trade, foreign capital, investment and expectation. Last Wednesday, less than a
week after Li made the appeal to "give priority to employment" on
30th November, the State Council published "Several Opinions of the State
Council on Working Effectively on Promoting Employment in the Current and
Future Time Periods". The measures included returning half of the amount
of unemployment insurance expenses paid in the first half of the year to
enterprises that laid off no or few workers, expanding the eligibility of
apprenticeship subsidies from unemployed university graduates to all unemployed
young people aged between 16 and 24, providing an entrepreneurship secured loan
of 150,000 RMB for eligible entrepreneurs, and raising the entrepreneurship
secured loan that small and micro-sized enterprises in which new employees
under contracts of more than a year make up 25% of the staff can apply for from
two million RMB to three million RMB (the required percentage is 15% for
enterprises which employ more than 100 people).
It has been theorised that if China's GDP goes down by one percentage
point, there will be one to two million fewer jobs. If exports go down by one
percentage point, the jobs of 300,000 to 500,000 people will be jeopardised. It
can thus be seen that the negative consequences of the trade war between the US
and China have not fully manifested themselves. It is the policies of
"emptying the cage for the new birds" and phasing out companies whose
productivity lagged behind pursued in previous years and the drive to get rid
of excess productivity and step up environmental protection efforts beginning
last year that have had a more obvious impact on employment. In fact, some
manufacturing enterprises that are by no means low-end have been migrating to
some Southeast Asian countries (such as Vietnam) in recent years.
According to mainland economic statistics and forecasts, the Chinese
economy, which hit rock bottom in 2015, could be in a similar situation again
in 2019. The global economic slowdown has made external circumstances hostile.
The 90-day negotiation period between China and the US over their trade
disputes will end on 1st March. If the negotiations fail, China will of course
be facing tariffs of astronomical figures, which will deal a heavy blow to
China's exports. Even if the negotiations are successful, it will be difficult
to evaluate the impact on China's related industries in case China has to make
major concessions. Furthermore, when all kinds of debts fall due, there might
be a wave of defaults and bankruptcies. The financial risks are likely to have
a spillover effect on the real economy. It is therefore predicted that the
mainland economy will be under even greater downward pressure next year, and
the employment market will be in an even direr situation.
就業穩中有難 中國未雨綢繆
國務院以及下屬多個部委上周推出了多項「穩就業」措施，總理李克強也在經濟形勢座談會上呼籲：「各級政府要把就業優先放在突出位置，有就業就有財富增長，就有社會穩定發展。」這顯示當局預見到，在中美貿易戰陰霾揮之不去下，內地明年經濟壓力將面臨極大困難，就業作為社會穩定的「安全閥」，就成為重中之重，需要未雨綢繆。
今年7月31日，中共中央政治局會議提出了「六穩」方針，其中「穩就業」位居首位，排在穩金融、穩外貿、穩外資、穩投資、穩預期之前。李克強11月30日發出「把就業優先放在突出位置」的呼籲後不到一周，國務院上周三就發出《關於做好當前和今後一個時期促進就業工作的若干意見》（簡稱《意見》），內容包括對不裁員或少裁員的企業，將返還其上年度繳納的一半失業保險費；將就業見習補貼範圍由未就業的大學畢業生，擴展至16至24歲的所有失業青少年；符合條件的創業者，可申領15萬元（人民幣，下同）創業擔保貸款；小微企業當年新招聘人數達到公司現有員工數25%（超過100人的企業達到15%）並簽1年以上長約，可申請的創業擔保貸款金額從200萬提高到300萬元等。
根據有關理論，中國GDP每下降1個百分點，就會減少100萬至200萬個職位，出口每下降1個百分點，亦影響30萬至50萬人的飯碗。由此可見，中美貿易戰對內地就業的影響尚未完全浮現。反而前些年「騰籠換鳥」、淘汰落後生產力，以及去年開始的去過剩產能、加大環保力度，對就業的影響明顯。事實上，內地一些並非低端的製造業企業，近年一直在向越南等東南亞國家轉移。
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