特朗普咄咄逼人 金正恩盼華相助

<轉載自2018年5月10日 明報 社評>

東北亞局勢雲譎波詭，朝鮮最高領導人金正恩6周內第二度訪華，情况絕不尋常，美國國務卿急赴朝鮮，同樣備受注目。近日朝鮮外務省突然開腔抨擊美國，美朝峰會似有阻滯，金正恩再晤習近平，反映朝鮮急欲尋求中方支持，為了「適應新時代要求」，中朝正邁向新的戰略關係，「中國被邊緣化」之說不攻自破。蛛絲馬迹顯示，美朝峰會好事多磨，源於華府堅持要朝鮮「完全棄核」後才放寬制裁；美國退出伊朗核協議，更加深朝鮮疑慮。習近平希望美國「考慮朝方合理安全關切」，採取「分階段行動」，實際是代朝鮮出頭，呼籲華府讓步，以免美朝峰會難產。

制裁僵局礙美朝峰會 習金大連會面不尋常

美朝峰會原定5月底或6月初舉行，惟迄今未見具體細節，峰會召開仍存變數。今年3月金正恩乘坐火車專列訪華，未料不足兩月，他又突然親赴大連跟習近平會面，兼且還是搭飛機捨火車。過去朝鮮最高領導人外訪，一般只坐火車，若非必要絕不乘搭飛機。金日成掌權後，據了解只曾3次坐飛機外訪，金正日主政期間更是清一色只坐專列。本月初中國外長王毅才以特使身分訪朝，與金正恩會晤。若非事態急轉直下，看不出金正恩為何要破例乘搭專機急赴大連與習近平見面。

上月朝韓峰會發表《板門店宣言》，同意以「朝鮮半島無核化」為目標，合力尋求構建半島永久和平機制。可是近日朝鮮外務省口風突然轉硬，警告美國勿把朝鮮的心意，錯誤解讀為美方制裁施壓的結果，令外界關注美朝峰會出現阻滯。特朗普為了在國民前邀功，不斷聲稱朝鮮「屈服」願意無核化，是白宮「極限施壓」的結果，有關言論固然觸怒朝鮮，然而細察朝鮮外務省言論，以及第二次「習金會」內容，不難發現問題關鍵出於美國堅持制裁朝鮮。

美朝對無核化存在重大分歧。特朗普口中的無核化，是「平壤棄核」；朝鮮的無核化，是「半島無核」，美國也不得將核震懾力加諸半島。中朝韓三國均認為，推進半島無核化，必須分階段「禮尚往來」，每當朝鮮就棄核邁出一步，美國也應有所回報，諸如放寬制裁，可是特朗普堅持朝鮮先棄核才有商量。美方的要求，如同要朝鮮任人魚肉，朝鮮不可能接受。朝鮮外務省抨擊美國，特別提到華府強調「朝鮮完全棄核前，美國不會放鬆制裁壓迫」，其實是警告美國繼續企硬將危及峰會。

近日美國無視盟友反對，宣布退出伊朗核協議，決意恢復制裁。堂堂國際頭號大國，視白紙黑字承諾如無物，想撕毁便撕毁，朝鮮看在眼裏，戒心肯定更大。這次金正恩來華，顯然想中方「拔刀相助」，同時向美方表明，朝鮮並非孤立無援。金正恩提到只要「有關方面」不再威脅朝鮮安全，朝方沒必要擁核，希望有關各方能「負責任地採取分階段、同步性的措施」。金正恩的說法與朝鮮外務省語氣迥異，惟要求美方分階段「禮尚往來」則一。

中朝關係戰略蛻變 「中國邊緣化」論可休矣

「習金會」後，習近平應約與特朗普通電話。新華社提到習近平希望美朝「分階段行動」，通過協商「解決各自關切」，「考慮朝方合理安全關切」，推進半島問題政治解決進程。習近平實際是代朝鮮出頭，呼籲特朗普放軟立場。中國斡旋半島危機，一直奉行少說話多做事的低調態度，「習特」通話內容，新華社大可不提細節；現在新華社的處理，無異於向平壤當局和國際社會宣示，習近平已向特朗普明言，朝鮮的安全憂慮合情合理，美方應該考慮。當然，特朗普是否聽得入耳，又是另一回事，觀乎白宮公布的簡短公布，談的仍是「持續制裁重要性」。

冷戰結束後，美國未改敵視朝鮮態度，拒絕關係正常化，令朝鮮決心發展核武。近年中方提出「雙軌並進」，呼籲無核化談判與建立半島永久和平機制談判同時進行，目的就是打破美朝互設前提的僵局，既滿足美方要求朝鮮舉行棄核談判，又滿足平壤要求美國承諾保障朝鮮安全。雖然中方沒有直接參與朝韓峰會，然而《板門店宣言》體現的就是「雙軌並進」原則。朝鮮半島問題，台前主角是朝韓美，然而北京在幕後一直設法引導事態朝中方的劇本前進。由韓朝峰會到金正恩兩度訪華，在在說明中國扮演關鍵角色，所謂「半島問題中國將被邊緣化」之說可以休矣。

金正恩上台以來，為爭取籌碼跟美國談判，不理中國反對，執意發展核武，令中朝關係陷入谷底。隨着朝鮮成為核武國，美朝對話之門打開，東北亞形勢已變，朝鮮出於外交和經濟考慮，必須跟中國修好。「習金會」後，朝鮮官媒形容朝中關係迎來「新的全盛時期」，加強朝中關係是「戰略選擇」，「適應新時代」，突顯平壤意識到新形勢之下要與美國周旋，亟需中方協助，中朝關係亦由昔日的意識形態「血盟」，蛻變成為較正常的戰略互惠合作關係。

Kim Jong-un seeks help from China in the face of Trump's aggressive stance

THE POLITICAL SITUATION of Northeast Asia is unpredictable. The supreme leader of North Korea Kim Jong-un visited China for the second time in 6 weeks. This is absolutely unusual. Recently North Korea's Ministry of Foreign Affairs has suddenly criticised the United States openly. It seems that the US-North Korea summit is faced with obstacles. The fact that Kim met Xi Jinping again shows that North Korea is anxious to seek Chinese support and some people's claim that "China has been marginalised" is obviously untenable. The obstacles faced by the US-North Korea summit stemmed from Washington's insistence that the US would only ease sanctions after North Korea "completely relinquish its nuclear programme". Xi Jinping urged the US to "consider North Korea's reasonable security concerns" and "act in stages". China is throwing its weight behind North Korea and is urging Washington to make concessions to prevent the US-North Korea summit from falling through.

Last month, the two Koreas signed the Panmunjom Declaration in their summit pledging to work jointly towards the goal of "denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula" by building a permanent peace mechanism on the peninsula. However, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of North Korea suddenly hardened its tone and warned the US not to misinterpret North Korea's intention as a result of sanctions and pressure from the US. This has aroused concern that the US-North Korea Summit is faced with obstacles.

There are major disagreements between the US and North Korea on denuclearisation. What Trump means by denuclearisation is "Pyongyang relinquishing its nuclear programme". For North Korea, denuclearisation means "the denuclearisation of the peninsula" and that the US should not install nuclear weapons on the peninsula in the name of deterrence. China and the two Koreas believe that reciprocal steps should be taken in stages in the denuclearisation of the peninsula. For each step North Korea takes towards giving up its nuclear programme, the US should reward it by easing sanctions, for example. However, Trump insists on North Korea abandoning its nuclear programme completely before any discussion about easing sanctions.

After the meeting between Xi and Kim, Xi Jinping talked to Trump in a scheduled phone conversation. According to the Xinhua News Agency, Xi told Trump that in order to advance the political process to deal with the problem on the Korean Peninsula, he hoped the US and North Korea "proceed in stages" by "addressing each other's concerns" through negotiations and "by considering the reasonable security concerns of North Korea". In other words, Xi was actually speaking out for North Korea by urging Trump to soften his stance.

After the end of the Cold War, the US has not given up its hostile stance towards North Korea and refused to normalise the relationship between the two countries. This results in North Korea making up its mind to develop nuclear weapons. In recent years, China has put forward the idea of "advancing on two tracks", urging the concerned parties to carry out denuclearisation negotiations and to build a permanent peace mechanism on the peninsula at the same time. Even though China had not taken part in the North-South Korea Summit, the principle of "advancing on two tracks" was manifested in the Panmunjom Declaration. The North-South Korea summit and Kim Jong-un's two visits to China show the critical role China has been playing. The claim that "China has been marginalised in the Peninsula issue" can therefore be ignored.

Since Kim Jong-un came to power, he has insisted on developing nuclear weapons in spite of China's opposition because he needs bargaining chips to negotiate with the US. As a result, the relationship between China and North Korea sank to an all-time low. Since the US and North Korea began their dialogue, the situation in Northeast Asia has changed. Pyongyang has come to the realisation that it urgently needs China's help in dealing with the US under the new circumstances. The relationship between China and North Korea is therefore evolving from being an ideological alliance "sealed in blood" to a more normal strategic relationship based on mutual benefits and cooperation.

特朗普咄咄逼人 金正恩盼華相助

東北亞局勢雲譎波詭，朝鮮最高領導人金正恩6周內第二度訪華，情况絕不尋常。近日朝鮮外務省突然開腔抨擊美國，美朝峰會似有阻滯，金正恩再晤習近平，反映朝鮮急欲尋求中方支持，「中國被邊緣化」之說不攻自破。美朝峰會好事多磨，源於華府堅持要朝鮮「完全棄核」後才放寬制裁。習近平希望美國「考慮朝方合理安全關切」，採取「分階段行動」，實際是代朝鮮出頭，呼籲華府讓步，以免美朝峰會難產。

上月朝韓峰會發表《板門店宣言》，同意以「朝鮮半島無核化」為目標，合力尋求構建半島永久和平機制。可是近日朝鮮外務省口風突然轉硬，警告美國勿把朝鮮的心意，錯誤解讀為美方制裁施壓的結果，令外界關注美朝峰會出現阻滯。

美朝對無核化存在重大分歧。特朗普口中的無核化，是「平壤棄核」；朝鮮的無核化，是「半島無核」，美國也不得將核震懾力加諸半島。中朝韓三國均認為，推進半島無核化，必須分階段「禮尚往來」，每當朝鮮就棄核邁出一步，美國也應有所回報，諸如放寬制裁，可是特朗普堅持朝鮮先棄核才有商量。

「習金會」後，習近平應約與特朗普通電話。新華社提到習近平希望美朝「分階段行動」，通過協商「解決各自關切」，「考慮朝方合理安全關切」，推進半島問題政治解決進程。習近平實際是代朝鮮出頭，呼籲特朗普放軟立場。

冷戰結束後，美國未改敵視朝鮮態度，拒絕關係正常化，令朝鮮決心發展核武。近年中方提出「雙軌並進」，呼籲無核化談判與建立半島永久和平機制談判同時進行。雖然中方沒有直接參與朝韓峰會，然而《板門店宣言》體現的就是「雙軌並進」原則。由韓朝峰會到金正恩兩度訪華，在在說明中國扮演關鍵角色，所謂「半島問題中國將被邊緣化」之說可以休矣。

金正恩上台以來，為爭取籌碼跟美國談判，不理中國反對，執意發展核武，令中朝關係陷入谷底。隨着美朝對話之門打開，東北亞形勢已變，平壤意識到新形勢之下要與美國周旋，亟需中方協助，中朝關係亦由昔日的意識形態「血盟」，蛻變成為較正常的戰略互惠合作關係。