一年兩誕地王 難言社會之福

<轉載自2017年11月16日 明報 社評>

本港又有新地王，長沙灣一幅臨海住宅地皮，由信和牽頭的財團以172.88億元投得，打破今年初鴨脷洲地王創下的168.55億元紀錄，單是「麵粉價」已等於目前區內二手單位的「麵包價」。本港樓市陷入瘋狂狀態，短短一年兩度誕生住宅地王，政府庫房進帳豐厚，投資者樂見樓價水漲船高，可是對一般市民來說卻難言是好事。樓價水平已跟普羅大眾承擔能力完全脫節，地王誕生所見證的，不過是樓市「癲價」的荒謬，實非社會之福。

樓市瘋狂習非成是 不合理被當成「正常」

近年本港樓價愈飈愈高，地價愈搶愈貴。香港歷史上有7幅價值逾百億元的住宅地王，當中6幅均於過去7年誕生，今年更先後誕下兩幅住宅地王。今年2月，內房發展商龍光和合景泰富聯手以168.55億元，投得鴨脷洲利南道地皮，較市場預期上限高出近五成，就連財政司長陳茂波亦直言價錢超乎政府預期，賣地價格之高令人擔憂。至於今次長沙灣地王爭奪戰，輪到本港發展商「發威」，由信和置業伙拍多間發展商投得地皮。

過去半年，內房來港高價爭地的趨勢有所放緩，今次長沙灣地王再創地價新高，反映本港發展商認為，未來數年樓價仍將持續高企，值得「重錘出擊」競投優質地皮。雖然長沙灣並非傳統豪宅地段，新地王附近還有污水處理廠，然而由於項目位處市區，規模大又有海景，甚為罕有，早前新地又以天價50億元奪得毗鄰酒店地皮，無論是本地還是內房發展商，今次出價都相當進取。市場人士早已估計有可能打破鴨脷洲地王紀錄，最終中標價為172.88億元，接近市場預期上限的178億元，平均每呎樓面地價1.75萬元，相當於目前區內部分二手樓宇呎價水平。

有市場人士認為，長沙灣地王中標價「尚算合理」，起碼未達到呎價超過2萬元的「瘋狂水平」，然而當「麵粉價」高達每呎1.75萬元，樓宇落成後的「麵包價」超過3萬元，絕非天方夜譚。屆時一個面積400平方呎的單位，售價隨時可能達到1200萬元，這對一般市民來說，根本是無法承擔的金額。所謂「中標價尚算合理」的說法，必須放在「樓市早已瘋癲得完全不合理」的大前提之下理解。現今香港樓市最荒謬之處，就是習非成是，愈來愈多人迫於無奈，把不合理的地價樓價水平當成「正常」基準，用來判斷樓市走勢是否合理。

就算不看未來只看今朝，長沙灣一年內先後出了兩幅「地王」，一幅是最貴酒店用地，一幅是最貴住宅地皮，勢必刺激區內樓價進一步飈升，為全港熾熱樓市加柴添火。雖然今次新地未能奪下地王，與旗下的毗鄰酒店地皮發揮最大協同效應，不過新地在區內還有其他住宅項目即將推售，一樣可望因為區內樓價「水漲船高」而受惠。今年初鴨脷洲利南道臨海項目成為全港地王，破盡賣地紀錄，為「市道向好」的說法推波助瀾，刺激樓市升勢，二手樓價接連破頂，多家發展商趁機將貨尾加價應市，有樓盤呎價較首推時大幅上調近六成，發展商還說已經「相當克制」。類似情况會否再度重演，值得密切留意。

麵粉價推高麵包價 摸頂入市慎防風險

賣地高價成交，可以為庫房帶來巨大收入，可是「麵粉價推高麵包價」的情况，無疑令人憂心。樓市對息口十分敏感，美國已經進入加息周期，一般認為樓市應該到了調整的時候，可是現實卻是樓價地價節節新高，一般市民置業愈益困難，發展商也要承擔不少風險。雖然目前市場資金仍然充裕，息口因素沒有太多人在意，可是樓市不可能長旺長紅，一旦未來數年市况逆轉，形勢可以變得相當嚴峻。20年前，信和以「摸頂價」118.2億元投得小西灣地皮，亦即現時的藍灣半島，未料不旋踵亞洲金融風暴驟至，地價樓價大跌，正是一次慘痛教訓。今次信和伙拍多間發展商投下地王，相信也是考慮到項目規模大金額高，合組財團可以減低投資風險。

信和需要重錘出擊投地，一大原因是它不像本港部分發展商般，囤積了大量新界農地，可以在補地價後發展。本港土地供應短缺，是地價樓價愈飈愈高的主因，最大得益者是手上已擁有大量土地的發展商。政府必須大量增加土地供應，才能遏抑樓價，部分人士出於環保考慮，反對政府造地增加供應，到頭來有可能只是幫了既得利益者發大財，令樓價繼續居高不下。這個殘酷現實，讓人無奈、無言。

Development sites fetching record prices are not cause for celebration

A new record has been set for Hong Kong plot prices. A waterfront residential plot in Cheung Sha Wan has been sold by tender to a consortium led by Sino Land for $17.288 billion, shattering the record of $16.855 billion set by an Ap Lei Chau site early this year. The Hong Kong property market is in a crazy state, so much so two new records have been set for residential sites within just one year. This has swelled public coffers, and investors are pleased to see property prices reaching one new high after another. To ordinary citizens, however, this is hardly a good thing. As property prices are now completely out of tune with the level that the general public find affordable, the setting of a new record for a residential plot only lends credence to the ridiculousness of property prices, and this is not cause for celebration to society.

In recent years, as property prices have climbed higher and higher, development sites have also become increasingly expensive amid intense competition. There are seven residential plots that are worth more than $10 billion, six of which were sold over the past seven years. This year alone has seen two records being set one after another. In February this year, Logan and KWG Property, both mainland developers, joined hands to acquire a site on Lee Nam Road, Ap Lei Chau for $16.855 billion, a price that was almost 50 per cent higher than the upper limit of the market estimate. Even Paul Chan, the Financial Secretary, admitted that the price exceeded the government's expectation and was worryingly high. This time around, it is local developers that shone, as Sino Land clinched the site in partnership with several other developers.

Over the past six months, the trend of mainland developers placing high bids on Hong Kong land has somewhat been stalled. The fact that the Cheung Sha Wan plot has set a new record shows that local developers believe that property prices will remain high over the next few years, so much so it is worthwhile to place high bids on premium plots. Despite the fact that Cheung Sha Wan is not a traditional lot for luxury flats and that the new site is in close proximity to a sewage treatment plant, it is still an exceptional site, since it is located in an urban district, it is vast and it has a sea view. Furthermore, as Sun Hung Kai Properties bought a hotel site nearby for the sky-high price of $5 billion earlier, both local and mainland developers made competitive tenders at the auction. People in the industry had long predicted that the site would break the record set by the Ap Lei Chau lot. It turns out that the winning bid is $17.288 billion, which is close to the upper limit of market prediction of $17.8 billion. The average floor price is $17,500 per square feet, which is around the same price level as some of the second-hand flats in the district at the moment.

The high price for which a site is sold brings enormous revenues to the government's coffers. However, the situation that the price of "flour", as it were, is pushing the price of "bread" higher and higher is doubtless a worrying one. Sino Land made such an ambitious bid for the site primarily because it has not built up vast reserves of New Territories land (as some other developers have done) that can be developed after paying the land premium. The short supply of land in Hong Kong is the primary reason why property prices are rising higher and higher, benefiting property developers which have accumulated huge land reserves most. It is necessary for the government to increase land supply hugely so as to stop property prices from continuing to rise. Some people, out of environmental considerations, are opposed to the government's measures to increase land supply. This will eventually help vested interests make handsome profits and keep property prices at a high level. This is a cruel reality that leaves people helpless and speechless.

一年兩誕地王 難言社會之福

本港又有新地王，長沙灣一幅臨海住宅地皮，由信和牽頭的財團以172.88億元投得，打破今年初鴨脷洲地王創下的168.55億元紀錄。本港樓市陷入瘋狂狀態，短短一年兩度誕生住宅地王，政府庫房進帳豐厚，投資者樂見樓價水漲船高，可是對一般市民來說卻難言是好事。樓價水平已跟普羅大眾承擔能力完全脫節，地王誕生所見證的，不過是樓市「癲價」的荒謬，實非社會之福。

近年本港樓價愈飈愈高，地價愈搶愈貴。香港歷史上有7幅價值逾百億元的住宅地王，當中6幅均於過去7年誕生，今年更先後誕下兩幅住宅地王。今年2月，內房發展商龍光和合景泰富聯手以168.55億元，投得鴨脷洲利南道地皮，較市場預期上限高出近五成，就連財政司長陳茂波亦直言價錢超乎政府預期，賣地價格之高令人擔憂。至於今次長沙灣地王爭奪戰，輪到本港發展商「發威」，由信和置業伙拍多間發展商投得地皮。

過去半年，內房來港高價爭地的趨勢有所放緩，今次長沙灣地王再創地價新高，反映本港發展商認為，未來數年樓價仍將持續高企，值得「重錘出擊」競投優質地皮。雖然長沙灣並非傳統豪宅地段，新地王附近還有污水處理廠，然而由於項目位處市區，規模大又有海景，甚為罕有，早前新地又以天價50億元奪得毗鄰酒店地皮，無論是本地還是內房發展商，今次出價都相當進取。市場人士早已估計有可能打破鴨脷洲地王紀錄，最終中標價為172.88億元，接近市場預期上限的178億元，平均每呎樓面地價1.75萬元，相當於目前區內部分二手樓宇呎價水平。

賣地高價成交，可以為庫房帶來巨大收入，可是「麵粉價推高麵包價」的情况，無疑令人憂心。信和需要重錘出擊投地，一大原因是它不像本港部分發展商般，囤積了大量新界農地，可以在補地價後發展。本港土地供應短缺，是地價樓價愈飈愈高的主因，最大得益者是手上已擁有大量土地的發展商。政府必須大量增加土地供應，才能遏抑樓價，部分人士出於環保考慮，反對政府造地增加供應，到頭來有可能只是幫了既得利益者發大財，令樓價繼續居高不下。這個殘酷現實，讓人無奈、無言。