恒指三萬資產盛宴 窮人感嘆與我何干

<轉載自2017年11月23日 明報 社評>

事隔10年，恒生指數終於重上3萬點大關，有大行更預測明年底恒指可見32,000點。近月恒指升勢，很大程度靠騰訊等龍頭科技股帶動，「問君能有幾多愁，沒買騰訊沒買樓」成為了網民金句。現今科技股有實績有實利，跟廿年前的科網泡沫時代，不可同日而語，無論是本港還是美國，很多投資者都對新經濟充滿憧憬，不過股市急漲並不意味實體經濟和普羅大眾一定受惠。近年全球經濟看似欣欣向榮，可是貧富懸殊卻變本加厲，恐怕不少窮人心裏都在感嘆，股市風光盛世與何我干。

科技創新方興未艾 強者愈強財富集中

「股王」騰訊和平保連日帶動股市上升，昨天雖見回吐，不過有匯控、港交所和內銀股接力，力保港股企穩3萬點以上收市，是10年來首次。歷史上，恒指只有7個交易日收於3萬點以上，不少好友相信，「北水」流入和企業業績力足支撐後市，恒指有條件突破2007年10月歷史高位31,958點。

2007年恒指在短短數月內暴漲萬點，一大原因是中央宣布「港股直通車」，不過當時港股走勢極為波動，屢受外圍影響，多次大升大跌上落千點，股民高處不勝寒；相比之下，今次牛市主要是由新經濟憧憬撐起，拾級而上。目前恒指市盈率約為16倍，比起10年前的24倍，仍有一段距離，加上全球經濟勢頭良好，都令「好友」信心滿滿。儘管近月港股急升，很大程度集中於騰訊等數隻科技股，地產股和銀行股升幅有限，惟在「好友」眼中，這不過是反映有追落後的空間；騰訊純利增長近七成，也令他們深信「股王」高處未算高。

當前港股升勢，步伐確較10年前平穩，不過股市變幻莫測，投資者始終要留意風險。今年以來，內地科網巨企股價瘋漲，騰訊和阿里巴巴股價升了一倍，較諸美國臉書、亞馬遜上升五成許，表現更為凌厲，日前騰訊市值更突破4萬億元，壓倒臉書。有市場人士將當前情况，與1999至2000年科網泡沫相提並論，然而廿年人事幾番新，現今的科技龍頭巨企，大多有實績和盈利支持，與當年科網股一味推銷空泛概念，截然不同。今年平保股價節節向上，就是因為積極運用創新科技，加強公司競爭力，贏得投資者青睞。

類似的討論，近月在美國也相當多。今年美股屢創新高，科技股亦是中流砥柱。標準普爾500指數的資訊科技股板塊，今年升幅逾三成半，跑贏大市，不少股民也關注10多年前科網股泡沫爆破一幕會否重演，惟一些市場分析認為，科技股價值未算高估，盈利增長強勁，可以繼續看好。新經濟方興未艾，不過新行業的邏輯卻是「勝者全取」。大型科網股增長強勁，支持股價持續上升，然而強者愈強，亦意味財富愈益集中，失敗者一定佔多數；「舊經濟」行業能否成功轉型發掘新價值，同樣難料。面對人工智能自動化革命，究竟有多少傳統行業會被淘汰，仍是未知之數，惟肯定有大批人因此面臨失業。

股市與實體經濟脫節 財富不均恐變本加厲

股市表現常被當成衡量經濟狀况的指標，美國總統特朗普便不止一次吹噓，美股屢創新高，工資也將受惠上漲。不過歷史數據顯示，股市強勁不代表低下階層能夠受惠。過去40年，美國工資水平增長放緩，與標普500指數總體向上的升勢完全不成比例。2008年金融海嘯後，美國等發達經濟體大印銀紙救市，谷起驚人的資產泡沫，股市表現與實體經濟脫節，擁有資產者身家水漲船高，窮人和年輕人卻要面對收入不均加劇和高樓價等惡果，貧富懸殊愈益嚴重。

最近瑞信一項研究顯示，金融海嘯以來，全球財富增加逾兩成半，過去一年增幅尤其強勁，達到6.4％，是5年來最快，一大原因是股市和樓價上升，可是財富增長分配並不平均，全球不足一成人佔去了86％財富。海嘯後，美國人的工資增長相當緩慢，直至近兩三年家庭收入中位數才有顯著增長，然而有學者分析，海嘯後美國財富不均變本加厲，只有高收入家庭「收復失地」，2016年財富中位數較海嘯前增長一成；相比之下，去年低收入和中等收入家庭的財富中位數，較2007年分別低了四成和三成多。不少美國以至本港投資者都憧憬，特朗普落實稅務改革，可刺激股市再升，可是著名經濟學家薩克斯（Jeffrey Sachs）痛斥，稅改方案如同是「富人向窮人開戰」，勢令財富不均惡化。

回看本港情况，低下階層也不見得因為資產市場興旺受惠。2008年，本港堅尼系數約為0.53，到現在已攀升至0.539，是45年來最高。雖然本港股市樓市火熱，可是消費未見顯著上升，薪酬調查報告顯示，半數公司明年加薪平均幅度估計只有3.5%，扣除通脹後的實際加幅很有限，各行各業前景也未見特別樂觀，無怪有網民形容，沒有買騰訊又沒有買樓，只能無奈空悲嘆！

What has the Index got to do with us?

THE Hang Seng Index (HSI) rose above the 30,000 barrier again after a decade. Some large investment banks even predict that it would rise to 32,000 by the end of next year. The rising trend of HSI in recent months has largely been driven by leading technology shares such as Tencent Holdings. Unlike the dot-com bubble which burst 20 years ago, the situation of technology shares nowadays is supported by solid performance and real profit. In Hong Kong as well as in the US, many investors have high hopes about the new economy. However, the surge of the stock prices does not mean that the real economy or ordinary people would definitely benefit from it.

The current bull market is shored up mainly by the great expectations placed on the new economy. The surge of Hong Kong stock prices in recent months involved only a few technology shares, such as Tencent. The property and bank share prices have risen moderately. Some analysts mention the current situation in the same breath with the dot-com bubble between 1999 and 2000. However, most leading technology conglomerates nowadays are supported with solid performance and profit. They are completely different from the dot-com and technology shares that only sold empty concepts in those years. Take the case of Ping An Insurance. Its share price has been rising steadily this year. It has won the favour of investors because it has been tapping innovative technology proactively to enhance its competitiveness.

US stocks have continued to hit new highs throughout this year, bolstered mainly by technology shares as well. The development of the new economy is not yet in full swing, but it is run by the logic of "the winner taking all". The robust growth of large technology and internet shares provides support to the continued stock surge. However, as the strong have become even stronger, wealth will also become more and more concentrated.

Historical data shows that a bullish stock market does not mean that the lower-class people would benefit from it. In contrast to the overall rising trend of the S&P 500 index, the rise in the wage level in the US has slowed down over the last four decades. According to a recent research by Credit Suisse, global wealth has increased by 25 per cent since the financial tsunami. The growth was especially robust last year. It was 6.4 per cent, the highest growth rate in the last five years. The main factor is that the stock market and property prices have gone up. However, distribution of the growth of wealth is far from even. Fewer than 10 per cent of the world population owns 86 per cent of the wealth around the globe.

Since the financial tsunami in 2008, the rise of the American wages has been rather slow. It was only in the last couple of years that the median family income showed some significant growth. However, according to some scholars, uneven distribution of wealth after the financial crisis has worsened. Only families in the high-income group have recovered their losses. In 2016, their median wealth was 10 per cent more than their wealth before the financial crisis. On the other hand, the median wealth of low-income families and that of middle-income families in 2016 was 40 percent and 30-odd per cent less than their median wealth in 2007.

Back to Hong Kong. People in the lower social strata do not seem to be benefiting from the thriving asset market. In 2008, Hong Kong's Gini coefficient was about 0.53. It has now climbed to 0.539, which is the highest over the last 45 years. In spite of the effervescent stock and property markets, consumption level in Hong Kong has not shown significant growth. Salary surveys anticipate an average salary rise of only 3.5 per cent next year for 50 per cent of the companies. After adjusting for inflation, there is very little real wage increase. And the prospects of most industries do not look bright. No wonder some netizens say that, if one owns neither Tencent shares nor property, one is left only with a hopeless sigh!

恒指三萬資產盛宴 窮人感嘆與我何干

事隔10年，恒生指數終於重上3萬點大關，有大行更預測明年底恒指可見32,000點。近月恒指升勢，很大程度靠騰訊等龍頭科技股帶動。現今科技股有實績有實利，跟廿年前的科網泡沫時代，不可同日而語，無論是本港還是美國，很多投資者都對新經濟充滿憧憬，不過股市急漲並不意味實體經濟和普羅大眾一定受惠。

今次牛市主要是由新經濟憧憬撐起。近月港股急升，很大程度集中於騰訊等數隻科技股，地產股和銀行股升幅有限。有市場人士將當前情况，與1999至2000年科網泡沫相提並論，然而現今的科技龍頭巨企，大多有實績和盈利支持，與當年科網股一味推銷空泛概念，截然不同。今年平保股價節節向上，就是因為積極運用創新科技，加強公司競爭力，贏得投資者青睞。

今年美股屢創新高，科技股亦是中流砥柱。新經濟方興未艾，不過新行業的邏輯卻是「勝者全取」。大型科網股增長強勁，支持股價持續上升，然而強者愈強，亦意味財富愈益集中。

歷史數據顯示，股市強勁不代表低下階層能夠受惠。過去40年，美國工資水平增長放緩，與標普500指數總體向上的升勢完全不成比例。最近瑞信一項研究顯示，金融海嘯以來，全球財富增加逾兩成半，過去一年增幅尤其強勁，達到6.4％，是5年來最快，一大原因是股市和樓價上升，可是財富增長分配並不平均，全球不足一成人佔去了86％財富。

2008年金融海嘯後，美國人的工資增長相當緩慢，直至近兩三年家庭收入中位數才有顯著增長，然而有學者分析，海嘯後美國財富不均變本加厲，只有高收入家庭「收復失地」，2016年財富中位數較海嘯前增長一成；相比之下，去年低收入和中等收入家庭的財富中位數，較2007年分別低了四成和三成多。

回看本港情況，低下階層也不見得因為資產市場興旺受惠。2008年，本港堅尼系數約為0.53，到現在已攀升至0.539，是45年來最高。雖然本港股市樓市火熱，可是消費未見顯著上升，薪酬調查報告顯示，半數公司明年加薪平均幅度估計只有3.5%，扣除通脹後的實際加幅很有限，各行各業前景也未見特別樂觀，無怪有網民形容，沒有買騰訊又沒有買樓，只能無奈空悲嘆！