美國新任聯儲局主席耶倫初試啼聲，在主持上任後首個議息會議後的發布會上，即放棄前任主席伯南克的失業率6.5%的加息門檻，更表示預期今年秋季量化寬鬆結束後6個月，即最快明年春季加息。這一立場與伯南克的「2016年加息」大相逕庭，7年長的低息周期已到尾聲，取而代之的是加息周期的重臨。
耶倫初試啼聲 即改加息門檻
美國經歷了金融海嘯的接近10%失業高峰期，之後在經濟基調微見好轉之下，拾級掉頭向下。伯南克在任時，更以失業率為加息「量化」門檻之一，從近期的態勢來看，以所謂6.5%失業率為指標之說看似不切實際，當局最近把今年底的失業率預期降至6.1％至6.3%，也就是說，倘仍然堅持伯南克的指標，今年底就得加息。耶倫放棄6.5%的門檻，改以勞動巿場狀、通脹壓力等「一籃子」因素為參考，然而無法改變的大勢仍是加息不可免。
從1980年代中的聯邦基金利率高見12厘以來，美息如今隨時會來到第5個周期的上升階段，從2006年美息見頂以至在2008年掉頭向下，及到2009年至今都處於0.25厘的低息年代，這一過程接近7年，是30年來維時最長的低息期，加息壓力重來，並不突然。事實上，聯儲局官員對利率的走勢，也出現口風漸變，去年12月聯儲局官員對今年12月的利率水平中位數預測是0.75厘，如今則修訂為1厘；對2016年底利率水平中位數預測也由1.75厘調升至2.25厘，美元走勢轉強並非無因。
由於港元與美元掛，港息在未來的加息周期緊隨美息上升已是必然。上周三耶倫講話之後，提早加息已成定局，息口上升令按揭成本增加，買樓意欲勢因此而受挫，本港地產股先受影響，周四在股巿的表現已見端倪。個別新推出樓盤，更出現低於巿價兩成的罕有情，雖然目前仍難斷言發展商是看淡後巿的出貨套現動作，抑或純粹是銷售策略，然而巿區新盤實價低於同區二手盤，加上耶倫的加息宣言，客觀上提醒有意置業人士，或可能是轉角巿的先聲。
港新盤開價低兩成 提防轉角巿先兆
另外兩個值得留意的信號是地皮出現流標情，以及二手巿場業主調低價格而成交增加。天水圍天榮站及大埔白石角地皮先後流標，儘管兩者可能涉及建築成本高和地皮本身因素，但發展商不看好後巿，裹足不前則是事實。至於二手巿場，業主在發展商取態保守，以及有價無巿的現實下終於向現實低頭，正正說明未來巿走向的指標。
儘管美國目前不可能出現1980年代因為高通脹而促發的超高聯邦利率，聯儲局專家對長期利率水平的估計為4厘，然而這不過是目前經濟基調下的評估，一旦出現變化，4厘的估計便會成為泡影。根據香港金管局去年底的平均供款與入息比率為35％，這一數字與「不得佔收入一半」的戒律看似有一段距離，但必須注意，這是美息低至0.25厘的情下數字，倘若美息「溫和地」朝聯儲局4厘的長期利率水平走去，這一變化亦足以令供樓壓力大增。
美國加息更會導致資金外流的誘因增加，金管局亦承認「有很多機會」影響新興巿場的資金流向，香港是自由港，資金可以瞬間掩至，亦可以一夜之間流出，當久經戰陣的地產發展商也轉趨保守，在美息將升未升的當下，傳統智慧裏的「持盈保泰」是穩健理財的不二法門。
Interest rates are about
to rise
CHAIR of the US Federal Reserve Janet Yellen has for the
first time displayed her worth. Last Wednesday (March 19), at the press
conference following the first Federal Open Market Committee meeting she had chaired, she
abandoned the 6.5% unemployment threshold for raising interest rates. She even
indicated they would go up the soonest next spring, six months after
quantitative easing ended next autumn.
In the US, unemployment
peaked nearly at 10% in the wake of the financial tsunami. It then began to
fall gradually as the US economy picked up. When he was Fed chair, Ben Bernanke
took unemployment as a quantity for fixing the threshold for raising interest
rates. However, judging from what has recently happened, it seems impracticable
to take 6.5% unemployment as a pointer. The authorities have lowered the
expected unemployment rate to between 6.1% and 6.3%. In other words, interest
rates would have to be raised if Bernanke's criteria stood. Yellen has
abandoned the 6.5% threshold and switched to looking at "a basket of"
factors, including the situation in the labour market and what may
fuel inflation. However, the general tendency is such that the Fed cannot but
hike interest rates.
The
Hong Kong dollar being pegged to the US dollar, it is certain that interest
rates will go up in the SAR as they do in the US in the next rate-hike cycle. Judging from what
Yellen said last Wednesday, it is a foregone conclusion that the Fed will hike
interest rates sooner. High interest means costly mortgage loans, which would
blunt the propensity to buy flats. In Hong Kong, property shares were affected first.
Clues can be discerned from the way the share market behaved last Thursday
(March 20). Furthermore, flats in some new developments have been exceptionally
offered for sale at what is 20% below market prices.
There
are two other signals worth notice: that the government have rejected bids for
two sites and that transactions of second-hand flats have gone up because
property owners have asked lower prices. The government has rejected bids for
the Tin Wing Stop site in Tin Shui Wai and those for the Pak Shek Kok site in
Tai Po. That may have to do with construction costs and factors pertinent to
the sites themselves, but it is a fact that developers have held themselves
back because they are bearish about the market. As for the second-hand property
market, because developers play safe and few offers have come from potential
buyers though asked prices are high, property owners cannot but bow to reality.
Experts
of the Fed reckon that interest rates will be about 4% in the long term.
However, this estimate is based on the prevailing economic situation. It will
be revised as soon as changes
take place. According to the Hong Kong Monetary Authority, the average debt to
income ratio was 35% towards the end of last year, but interest rates were then
as low as 0.25% in the US. If they rise "moderately" to about 4% in
the long term as the Fed expects, mortgage loans will become much more
burdensome.
Once
interest rates go up in the US, more causes of money outflows will come into
operation. The Hong Kong Monetary Authority admits there are many occasions
that may affect the way money flows between emerging markets. Hong Kong is a
free port. Large sums of money may suddenly flow into it or flow out of it.
Conventional wisdom has it that, when interest rates are about to rise and even
developers, who have seen many battles, tend to play safe, the only proper way
of prudent wealth management is to act with restraint and seek to maintain
and secure one's good position.
就業改善美國提早加息
港按息勢升置業須量力
美國新任聯儲局主席耶倫初試啼聲，在主持上任後首個議息會議後的發布會上，即放棄前任主席伯南克的失業率6.5%的加息門檻，更表示預期今年秋季量化寬鬆結束後6個月，即最快明年春季加息。
美國經歷了金融海嘯的接近10%失業高峰期，之後在經濟基調微見好轉之下，拾級掉頭向下。伯南克在任時，更以失業率為加息「量化」門檻之一，從近期的態勢來看，以所謂6.5%失業率為指標之說看似不切實際，當局最近把今年底的失業率預期降至6.1％至6.3%，也就是說，倘仍然堅持伯南克的指標，今年底就得加息。耶倫放棄6.5%的門檻，改以勞動巿場狀、通脹壓力等「一籃子」因素為參考，然而無法改變的大勢仍是加息不可免。
由於港元與美元掛，港息在未來的加息周期緊隨美息上升已是必然。上周三耶倫講話之後，提早加息已成定局，息口上升令按揭成本增加，買樓意欲勢因此而受挫，本港地產股先受影響，周四在股巿的表現已見端倪。個別新推出樓盤，更出現低於巿價兩成的罕有情。
另外兩個值得留意的信號是地皮出現流標情，以及二手巿場業主調低價格而成交增加。天水圍天榮站及大埔白石角地皮先後流標，儘管兩者可能涉及建築成本高和地皮本身因素，但發展商不看好後巿，裹足不前則是事實。至於二手巿場，業主在發展商取態保守，以及有價無巿的現實下終於向現實低頭。
聯儲局專家對長期利率水平的估計為4厘，然而這不過是目前經濟基調下的評估，一旦出現變化，4厘的估計便會成為泡影。根據香港金管局去年底的平均供款與入息比率為35％，但這是美息低至0.25厘的情下數字，倘若美息「溫和地」朝聯儲局4厘的長期利率水平走去，這一變化亦足以令供樓壓力大增。
美國加息更會導致資金外流的誘因增加，金管局亦承認「有很多機會」影響新興巿場的資金流向，香港是自由港，資金可以瞬間掩至，亦可以一夜之間流出，當久經戰陣的地產發展商也轉趨保守，在美息將升未升的當下，傳統智慧裏的「持盈保泰」是穩健理財的不二法門。
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