2014年3月26日 星期三

服貿協議掀起波濤 馬英九陷政治危機

<轉載自2014325 明報 社評>

台灣學生佔領立法院,反對《兩岸服務貿易協議》,事態至今一星期仍未見解決象,對於民望持續低迷的總統馬英九及國民黨政府,宛如雪上加霜,事態會否盡快解決,不致因為延宕日久演變為憲政危機,是現階段要關注的發展;另外,今次事態對國民黨甚為不利,今年底的「七合一」選舉和後年的總統選舉,國民黨選情更難以樂觀,若民進黨再度執政,則兩岸關係會出現什麼狀,成為懸念。

未充分解釋違程序公義 服貿本好棋下得太差了

今次台灣學生抗爭,演變至學生除了佔領立法會議場,還一度攻入行政院,經大批警方強力清場多個小時,才把群驅離,保住行政院;設若繼立法院「淪陷」之後,行政院又被佔領,台灣的行政管治被癱瘓,則今次事件恐非單純的學生運動,而是極可能朝向革命的顛覆效果發展了。大概島內人士都知道事態的嚴重,雖然出現罕有的鎮壓場面,島內輿情對當局的處理,卻並未有太嚴厲指摘,因為許多人都知道,此事若發展至「革命」程度,並不符合比例。就是說太過頭了。此所以警方驅離民之後,佔領立法院的學生不滿警方使用武力,呼籲全台學生自主罷課,並未得到熱切迴響,原因相信與此有關。

不過,即使如此,當局在處理服貿協議的做法,仍然值得商榷。

1)香港與內地磨合17年之後,政治、經濟、社會等情,台灣民看在眼裏,他們對服貿協議會否使台灣走上香港之路,或多或少有疑慮,加上民進黨等本土力量極力抗拒與大陸融合,他們對於服貿協議,散佈不盡不實負面說法、評論,不少人確實受到影響。其實,不乏專家學者都指出,服貿協議對台灣有利,而且是大陸向台灣讓利,這是不持偏見的認知,可惜台灣當局未打好這場輿論戰,未能「消毒」和消除民疑慮。

2)國民黨意圖利用在立法院的議席優勢,強行以打包方式通過整份協議。民進黨基於政治需要,確實在審議協議的委員會階段,採取拖延策略,不過,既然兩黨早有逐條審議、逐條表決的共識,民進黨的做法也有理可據。但是本月17日,內政委員會召集委員張慶忠在朝野混戰中,宣讀表明服貿審查超過3個月,視為已審查,並將服貿協議送院會存查,此舉引起在野黨籍立法委員及民間團體不滿;這個「剪布」舉措,在一些人先入為主之下,更認為服貿協議有不可告人之處,攻佔立法院的學生,起初只是「反黑箱」、要求「程序正義」,於此可見一斑,後來才演變至反對服貿協議,那是學生提高了訴求注碼。

今次抗爭演變至警方與民衝突,當然是壞事,不過,衝突過程與衝突之後台灣整體社會表現出來的克制,使人看到享有華人社會最高民主程度的台灣,在大是大非面前,整體仍有一定分寸。然而,此事仍未解決,若往後處理不當,則難保事態會惡化。台灣行政院長江宜樺昨日不諱言表示,若短期內排除佔領立法院,讓議會議事恢復運作,就不是憲政危機;若議會停擺時間愈久,就愈可能面臨危機。若事態發展至出現憲政危機,屆時台灣整體政局就很難預測了。

年底與總統選舉 國民黨選情亮紅燈

台灣學生抗爭,表面上是對一個法案政策有不同意見所致,不過,服貿協議是台灣與大陸互動的成果,抗爭事態性質並非純粹一項對政策或程序公義那麼簡單,而是折射出台灣民對與大陸在經濟領域融合的憂疑,所以,台灣當局要做更多工夫,使民知道服貿協議如何有利於台灣和民如何受惠。特別在全球化大潮下,台灣與其他社會(例如香港)面對同樣情,雖然餅做大了,但是分配未相應調整,普羅大得益不多,特別是年輕一代,住屋需要因為房價升而對前景沮喪,甚至憤懣。香港在內地資金湧入而出現的情,台灣民應有一定認知,服貿協議引入大陸資金之後,台灣會否步香港後塵,相信是今次事件的一個深層次原因,也是台灣當局要應對的問題。

今次是2008年馬英九帶領國民黨重新執政迄今最大的政治危機,6年以來,由於種種原因,馬英九的政績並無太多亮點,與大陸保持良性互動,是他經常自詡的成就,只是因為這樣,他也被民進黨和一些人攻擊為「賣台」,今次就程序公義而引發軒然大波,正是包括學生對台灣當局這方面的疑慮。馬英九這個政績亮點會否因而蒙上陰影,是事態發展的一個觀察點。

今次事件,也暴露國民黨內勢力各懷鬼胎,例如學生佔領立法院之後,馬英九邀請行政院及立法院召開院際會議,尋求應對之道,但是立法院長王金平婉拒出席,江宜樺說當日若能夠坐下來談,交換意見並有共識,或許之後群的抗爭激烈程度不會上升,可以更早化解問題,云云。馬英九民望本已低趨,支持度跌至單位數字,但是於此政治危機關頭,國民黨內部仍然勇於內鬥和相互諉過,這樣的狀態,加上這次事件,今年底的「七合一」選舉和後年的總統換屆選舉,國民黨的選情難以樂觀。若民進黨再度執政,則牽動的不單是島內政治生態,與大陸的互動和關係,更關乎地區穩定與安全,這是服貿協議事件折射出來的可能演變,值得關注。

Ma Ying-jeou hit by trade-pact crisis

IN PROTEST against the Cross-Strait Agreement on Trade in Services, Taiwan students have occupied the Legislative Yuan for a week now, and there is still no sign of an end to the occupation. For Ma Ying-jeou and the Kuomintang government, whose approval ratings have for a long time remained frustratingly low, the situation is really grim.

And in addition to occupying the legislature, the students also forced their way into the Executive Yuan. It took an army of police officers many hours to force them out of the building. If after the Legislative Yuan the Executive Yuan were also occupied by the students, the Taiwan government would be effectively paralysed, and the student movement would very likely turn into a government-toppling revolution. It appears that the Taiwan public is well aware of the serious implications of the case, which may explain why the government has not come under fierce criticism although its crackdown on the student demonstrators was marked by a violence rarely equalled in Taiwan these days. Clearly, as the world's most democratic Chinese society, Taiwan when faced with a critical issue is on the whole able to tell the right from the wrong.

However, the student movement is still going on. If improperly handled, things may still take a turn for the worse. As Premier Jiang Yi-huah pointed out yesterday (March 24), there will be no constitutional crisis if the students disperse and the Legislative Yuan is able to resume operation soon. But the longer the legislature remains out of operation, the larger the crisis looms. If a constitutional crisis does occur, Taiwan's political situation may well get out of hand.

The student movement is in fact a reflection of the Taiwan public's misgivings about economic integration with mainland China. What the Taiwan government should do, therefore, is tell the people how the trade pact will be of advantage to them and to Taiwan.

The students' protests may well be regarded as the most serious political crisis Ma has been faced with since he led the Kuomintang back to office in 2008. Over the past six years, Ma's record of political achievements has been hardly impressive. What he prides himself on is the maintenance of beneficial interaction with the mainland. However, for this reason he is labelled, by the Democratic Progressive Party and some other people, as one who "betrays Taiwan". The students' protests would not have turned into a major event if the students, among others, were not suspicious of the government in this respect.

The event also shows how different factions within the Kuomintang have different axes to grind. For instance, a few days into the students' occupation of the Legislative Yuan, Ma invited the heads of the Executive Yuan and the Legislative Yuan to a meeting to find a way to bring the matter to an end. President of the Legislative Yuan Wang Jin-pyng, however, declined to attend. Jiang said that, if the meeting had been held and an agreement had been reached, the crisis might have been resolved already. Thus, even when it is hard hit by a political crisis, the Kuomintang is still riven by internal strife. One can hardly be optimistic about the party's chances in the 2016 presidential election. And if the Democratic Progressive Party comes to power once again, what will be affected is not only Taiwan's political arena and the island's interactions and relations with the mainland, but also the stability and security of the region. Much remains to be seen.

服貿協議掀起波濤 馬英九陷政治危機

台灣學生佔領立法院,反對《兩岸服務貿易協議》,事態至今一星期仍未見解決象,對於民望持續低迷的總統馬英九及國民黨政府,宛如雪上加霜。

今次台灣學生抗爭,演變至學生除了佔領立法會議場,還一度攻入行政院,經大批警方強力清場多個小時,才把群驅離,保住行政院;設若繼立法院「淪陷」之後,行政院又被佔領,台灣的行政管治被癱瘓,則今次事件恐非單純的學生運動,而是極可能朝向革命的顛覆效果發展了。大概島內人士都知道事態的嚴重,雖然出現罕有的鎮壓場面,島內輿情對當局的處理,卻並未有太嚴厲指摘,使人看到享有華人社會最高民主程度的台灣,在大是大非面前,整體仍有一定分寸。

然而,此事仍未解決,若往後處理不當,則難保事態會惡化。台灣行政院長江宜樺昨日不諱言表示,若短期內排除佔領立法院,讓議會議事恢復運作,就不是憲政危機;若議會停擺時間愈久,就愈可能面臨危機。若事態發展至出現憲政危機,屆時台灣整體政局就很難預測了。

台灣學生抗爭,折射出台灣民對與大陸在經濟領域融合的憂疑,所以,台灣當局要做更多工夫,使民知道服貿協議如何有利於台灣和民如何受惠。

今次是2008年馬英九帶領國民黨重新執政迄今最大的政治危機,6年以來,由於種種原因,馬英九的政績並無太多亮點,與大陸保持良性互動,是他經常自詡的成就,只是因為這樣,他也被民進黨和一些人攻擊為「賣台」,今次引發軒然大波,正是包括學生對台灣當局這方面的疑慮。
 
今次事件,也暴露國民黨內勢力各懷鬼胎,例如學生佔領立法院之後,馬英九邀請行政院及立法院召開院際會議,尋求應對之道,但是立法院長王金平婉拒出席,江宜樺說當日若能夠坐下來談,交換意見並有共識,或許可以更早化解問題,云云。於此政治危機關頭,國民黨內部仍然勇於內鬥,後年的總統換屆選舉,國民黨的選情難以樂觀。若民進黨再度執政,則牽動的不單是島內政治生態,與大陸的互動和關係,更關乎地區穩定與安全,值得關注。

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