<轉載自2017年12月8日 明報 社評>
美國總統特朗普承認耶路撒冷為「以色列首都」，惹來國際社會反彈，歐洲和中東盟友紛紛反對。耶路撒冷歸屬是中東最敏感問題，特朗普力撐以色列，唯恐天下不亂，令以巴和談壽終正寢。特朗普一改數十年華府中東外交立場，為競選承諾「找數」是因素之一，惟亦與「後ISIS時代」中東霸權爭逐有密切關係。特朗普不按牌理出牌，為國際地緣政治形勢增添不少變數，不過其一意孤行作風，勢將進一步削弱美國全球領導地位，所謂「美利堅治世」（Pax Americana）可能已走向盡頭。
承認耶城為「以國首都」 華府撐以色列抗伊朗
猶太教、伊斯蘭教和基督教均視耶路撒冷為聖城。耶路撒冷歸屬問題要由上世紀初說起。第一次世界大戰後，英國佔領耶路撒冷和巴勒斯坦，大量猶太人湧入。二戰後西方列強將巴勒斯坦土地一分為二，讓以色列立國，引發第一次中東戰爭，戰爭後耶城分為兩半，西邊屬以色列，東邊歸阿拉伯人控制。及至1967年中東戰爭再起，以色列佔領約旦河西岸、加沙地帶和東耶路撒冷等巴人地區。以色列一直視耶路撒冷為首都，惟不獲國際承認；巴勒斯坦人力爭立國，亦希望以耶路撒冷為都。1993年，美國斡旋以巴締結《奧斯陸和議》，希望解決以巴衝突，最終讓巴人立國，耶城歸屬成為日後和談核心議題。
美國國內舉足輕重的親以色列勢力，一直要求華府承認耶城為以色列首都，將美國大使館遷往當地，惟華府若要斡旋以巴和平，必須恪守中立。由1990年代的克林頓，到21世紀的小布殊和奧巴馬，都奉行「不承認不遷館」，今次特朗普一改前朝外交政策，支持以色列，等同放棄斡旋以巴和平的角色，為中東局勢添煩添亂，不僅可能觸發新一輪以巴暴力衝突，極端伊斯蘭武裝分子亦可能趁機發動更多恐怖襲擊。
特朗普競選總統期間，答允承認耶城為以色列首都，換取猶太裔富商及親以色列勢力支持。特朗普今次決定，「找數」味道甚濃，不過若從中東博弈新形勢的高度觀察，亦非無迹可尋。
過去30年中東局勢變化巨大。蘇聯瓦解後，美國挾波斯灣戰爭勝利餘威，推動以巴和平，企圖將以色列和阿拉伯陣營盡攬麾下，孤立伊朗和伊拉克，在區內貫徹「美利堅治世」，意即建立一套以美國利益為核心的國際和平秩序。然而踏入21世紀，以色列右翼抬頭，以巴和談膠着。美軍入侵伊拉克，不僅未能鞏固中東霸權，反而自陷泥沼，伊朗趁機擴張。奧巴馬在任8年，一邊致力從中東戰局抽身，一邊調整孤立伊朗政策，不過利用阿拉伯之春變局擴張勢力卻未見成果，反而助長「伊斯蘭國」（ISIS）崛起。
特朗普不按牌理出牌 地緣政治角力添變數
刻下ISIS末路窮途，各方都在盤算「後ISIS時代」。綜觀中東廿載變局，五大趨勢包括﹕‧伊朗勢力抬頭，挑戰美國中東霸主地位；‧以色列右翼當道，以巴和談名存實亡，美以關係倒退；‧阿拉伯多國陷入紛擾戰禍，沙特成為龍頭，與伊朗勢不兩立；‧美國透過外交（斡旋和談）和軍事手段，均未能在中東確立「美利堅治世」；‧俄羅斯「重返中東」，隱然與伊朗和土耳其建立起戰略合作關係。現今美國就算想在中東擴大「團結面」，也很難如願，不想增兵又要維護霸權，最現實的做法，還是回歸基本，與區內最強盟友以色列和沙特加強關係。
時移世易，以巴和平進程對美國來說，已沒有多少政治利用價值。今年來，美國中東政策明顯以力挺沙特和以色列為核心，壓制伊朗成為三國共同利益。雖然沙特與以色列仍無邦交，可是近期兩國關係明顯升溫，以色列甚至願與沙特分享伊朗情報，這在廿多年前根本難以想像。阿拉伯民眾仍然同情巴人，可是對沙特等區內親美的專制政權來說，他們現在最關心的已非巴人福祉，而是對付伊朗，以巴矛盾在中東地緣政治重要性已顯著下降。
姑勿論特朗普是否真有看通中東全局的政治智慧，還是只着眼軍火銷售利益甚至個人私利，然而他不按牌理出牌，承認耶城為以色列首都，無疑令人關注，未來他處理朝鮮核威脅等地緣政治危機時，會否同樣出其不意，這對於中俄等國家，是一個很大的不確定因素，潛藏不少風險。
特朗普的中東新政策，明顯是一場政治賭博，美國全力擁抱沙特以國，俄羅斯在中東將有更多外交空間合縱連橫；美以沙特與伊朗角力益趨熾烈，也容易擦槍走火。美國著名政治學者羅斯科夫（David Rothkopf）指出，小布殊、奧巴馬和特朗普三任總統政治立場迥異，可是三人的外交政策，均不約而同是「得失盟友，益了敵人」，導致美國全球領導地位日削月朘，二戰後美國致力在全球建立的「美利堅治世」正走向末路。特朗普今次冒天下之大不韙，難免進一步打擊美國全球領導角色，長遠有可能「因小失大」。
Donald Trump sows discord in the Middle East
US PRESIDENT Donald Trump has recognised Jerusalem as "the capital
of Israel", provoking a backlash from the international community and
opposition from the US's allies in Europe and the Middle East. The sovereignty
of Jerusalem is the most sensitive issue in the Middle East. By throwing his
weight behind Israel, Donald Trump has shown that he is dead set to sow discord
in the world and has effectively killed off the Middle East peace process.
Jerusalem is regarded as a holy city by followers of Judaism,
Christianity and Islam. The issue of which country Jerusalem belongs to dates
back to the early 20th century. After the First World War, Britain occupied
Jerusalem and Palestine, which was followed by the influx of Jews. The end of
the Second World War saw the partition of Palestine into two by western powers.
The state of Israel came into being, triggering the First Arab-Israeli War.
After the war Jerusalem was divided into half. West Jerusalem was accorded to
Israel, and East Jerusalem to the Arabs. The 1967 Arab-Israeli War ended with
Israel's occupation of the West Bank of River Jordan, the Gaza Strip and East
Jerusalem, regions that originally belonged to Palestinians. Israel has long
deemed Jerusalem to be its capital, a claim that is not recognised by the
international community. The Palestinians, who are striving to create their own
country, have also long aspired to have Jerusalem as their capital. In 1993, by
virtue of mediation by the US, Israel and the Palestinians signed the Oslo
Accord, an effort aimed at resolving the conflict between Israel and Palestine
and letting the Palestinians create their own country. The sovereignty of
Jerusalem became the core of future peace talks.
Pro-Israel groups in the US that wield immense power have long demanded
that the White House recognise Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and move the
US embassy there. However, for the White House to mediate in the Middle East
peace process, it is necessary for it to remain impartial. Bill Clinton in the
1990s, George W Bush and Barack Obama in the 21st century all adhered to the
principle of not recognising Israel's claim and not moving the US embassy to
Jerusalem. Trump's move to alter the diplomatic policy of previous
administrations and support Israel is tantamount to forgoing its role to
mediate in the peace between Israel and Palestine, stoking uncertainty in the
Middle East. Not only might this trigger a new wave of violent clashes between
Israelis and Palestinians, but radical Islamic terrorists could also take
advantage of the situation to carry out more terrorist attacks.
When running for president, Donald Trump promised to recognise Jerusalem
as Israel's capital in exchange for support from Jewish tycoons and pro-Israel
groups. The decision made by Donald Trump is evidently an attempt to fulfil
this promise. This, however, did not entirely come out of the blue if looked at
from the vantage point of the latest situation in the Middle East rivalry.
Donald Trump's new Middle East policy is obviously a political gamble.
With the US giving its full support to Saudi Arabia and Israel, Russia will
have more leeway to forge alliances in the Middle East. The increasing rivalry
between the US, Israel and Saudi Arabia and Iran can also easily spiral out of
control. As pointed out by David Rothkopf, a prominent American political
scientist, despite the major differences between the political stances of
George Bush, Barack Obama and Donald Trump, there is one thing in common in
their diplomatic policies: they have all displeased their allies to the
advantage of their enemies. As a result, the US's global leadership is being
diminished day by day, and "Pax Americana", which the US so eagerly
established after the Second World War, is coming to an end. Donald Trump's
decision has dismayed the entire world. By doing so, he has inevitably further
damaged the US's global leadership, which could cost the US dear in the longer
term.
特朗普唯恐天下不亂 中東霸權爭逐起風雲
美國總統特朗普承認耶路撒冷為「以色列首都」，惹來國際社會反彈，歐洲和中東盟友紛紛反對。耶路撒冷歸屬是中東最敏感問題，特朗普力撐以色列，唯恐天下不亂，令以巴和談壽終正寢。
猶太教、伊斯蘭教和基督教均視耶路撒冷為聖城。耶路撒冷歸屬問題要由上世紀初說起。第一次世界大戰後，英國佔領耶路撒冷和巴勒斯坦，大量猶太人湧入。二戰後西方列強將巴勒斯坦土地一分為二，讓以色列立國，引發第一次中東戰爭，戰爭後耶城分為兩半，西邊屬以色列，東邊歸阿拉伯人控制。及至1967年中東戰爭再起，以色列佔領約旦河西岸、加沙地帶和東耶路撒冷等巴人地區。以色列一直視耶路撒冷為首都，惟不獲國際承認；巴勒斯坦人力爭立國，亦希望以耶路撒冷為都。1993年，美國斡旋以巴締結《奧斯陸和議》，希望解決以巴衝突，最終讓巴人立國，耶城歸屬成為日後和談核心議題。
美國國內舉足輕重的親以色列勢力，一直要求華府承認耶城為以色列首都，將美國大使館遷往當地，惟華府若要斡旋以巴和平，必須恪守中立。由1990年代的克林頓，到21世紀的小布殊和奧巴馬，都奉行「不承認不遷館」，今次特朗普一改前朝外交政策，支持以色列，等同放棄斡旋以巴和平的角色，為中東局勢添煩添亂，不僅可能觸發新一輪以巴暴力衝突，極端伊斯蘭武裝分子亦可能趁機發動更多恐怖襲擊。
特朗普競選總統期間，答允承認耶城為以色列首都，換取猶太裔富商及親以色列勢力支持。特朗普今次決定，「找數」味道甚濃，不過若從中東博弈新形勢的高度觀察，亦非無迹可尋。
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