<轉載自2018年6月19日 明報 社評>
中美貿易戰一觸即發，上周白宮宣布向總值500億美元的中國貨徵收25%關稅，中方即時採取「同等規模同等力度」反擊。美國總統特朗普行事反覆，中美貿易博弈變數甚多，中方需為持久戰作好準備。貿易摩擦陰霾籠罩全球，特朗普四處燃點火頭，不僅劍指中國，連歐盟、加拿大等盟友也不放過。也許特朗普認為，美國可挾強大實力，逼其他國家就範，惟貿易戰殺敵一千自傷八百，誰勝誰負關鍵不在強弱，而是看誰更能忍痛。美國犯下兵家大忌，向多國「無差別」開火，惹來各方報復，成為眾矢之的，反而減輕中國所承受的國際壓力。
美挑起多條貿易戰線 中方需有持久戰準備
今年3月特朗普威脅對中國商品加徵關稅，之後中美先後3輪談判，兩國一度發表聯合聲明，就避免「貿易戰」達成共識。有消息指如果華府不加徵關稅，中方同意購買總值700億美元美國農產品、能源和工業製成品。然而特朗普出爾反爾，兩國談判成果已成一紙空文。雖然美方官員表示，仍有談判斡旋餘地，然而前車可鑑，之前3輪談判竟是白談一場，中美是否真能避過貿易戰，叫人好生懷疑。
中美貿易戰山雨欲來，特朗普及共和黨放眼年底中期選舉，強調「美國優先」向華施壓，有利討好選民，惟因中方可能貿易報復，打擊共和黨票倉地區，所以特朗普暫時也不敢與中方動真格打起來。然而美方一大戰略意圖，是打擊「中國製造2025」，遏阻中國高科技產業發展，隨着中期選舉結束，特朗普及共和黨暫無後顧之憂，不排除美方可能更加放手全力遏制中國，北京要有跟美國打持久戰的準備。
過去半年，特朗普挑起多條貿易戰線。除了向中國施壓，華府又假「國家利益」之名，向全球鋼鋁開徵關稅，導致美國跟歐盟、加拿大和日本等盟友關係大為緊張。早前的G7峰會，本來是歐美日槍口一致向中國施壓的機會，然而卻因為鋼鋁問題，演變成「美國對G6」的局面。雖然近日特朗普放軟口風，呼籲歐美磋商減少貿易壁壘，然而歐洲反應冷淡。上月特朗普已下令商務部「照辦煮碗」，參考開徵鋼鋁關稅，檢討進口汽車及零件關稅政策，未來一年美國與其他發達工業國的貿易摩擦，有可能愈演愈烈。特朗普四處挑起火頭，反而有助紓減中國的壓力，日本財相麻生太郎也認為，美國採取保護主義行動「對中國有利」。
特朗普挑起貿易對抗不分敵友，支持者吹捧為「奇招妙着」，事實是否如此，卻叫人懷疑。近日《金融時報》綜合華府多位現任和前任官員的描述，指出特朗普政府處理貿易問題得個「亂」字，特朗普為求履行競選承諾，強調處理貿易事務要夠強硬，可是就連自己想怎樣做也不清晰，處事靠直覺，甚至未有從長計議便下決定，不聽身邊顧問意見，至於政府內部鷹派鴿派則各持己見，惟又沒有人能真正話事。觀乎華府處理貿易問題反覆無常，有關說法似乎並非空穴來風。
殺敵一千自傷八百 美自損產品競爭力
美方質疑「中國製造2025」置美國企業於不利境地，「有違公平原則」，惟正如英國學者霍蒲維爾（Kristen Hopewell）所言，這類工業化策略，是發展國追趕西方工業國的常見手段，絕非中國獨有，當年日韓台灣也有用類似政策，何况中國市場夠大，可以成為自身產業升級的最大動力，就算美方封殺中國高科技產品入口，也阻不了中國先進工業發展。相比之下，美國忍痛能力反而未必及得上中國。華府政客除了要考慮中方報復措施對選民的影響，也要考慮國內高科技製造業的處境。以飛機製造業為例，美國其實從中國入口不少高科技零部件去生產飛機。華府向中國高科技產品開徵25％關稅，有可能推高美國公司生產成本，削弱波音公司的競爭力，得益的是歐洲空中巴士。
特朗普四處威脅貿易戰，設法向貿易伙伴索要最多好處，然而貿易戰必然是殺敵一千自傷八百，注定是各方皆輸，得不償失，絕非上算。當然，一旦打起貿易戰，總有國家會輸多一些，特朗普的盤算，也許就是弱肉強食，認為美國夠大夠惡，可以向其他國家索要更多，可是他的「無差別攻擊」，其實犯了兵家大忌。以開徵鋼鋁關稅為例，白宮的保護主義措施，也許可以幫國內鋼鋁企業一把，然而承受代價的卻是國內需要廉價鋼鋁的生產商。今年以來，美國鋼鐵價格已升近四成，較歐洲和中國方面的價錢足足高逾五成，生產成本上升，必然削弱美國產品競爭力。此外，歐盟、加拿大、日本、墨西哥等一眾受影響國家，已紛紛準備向美國貨徵收關稅報復，涉款超過400億美元。美國所受的經濟打擊，隨時可能比受關稅措施影響的國家更大。
The indiscriminate trade war started by the US
NOW a trade war between China and the US could break out at any moment,
as the White House announced last week that it would impose a 25% tariff on
US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods and China responded immediately with
action "on an equal scale and of equal strength".
Last March Donald Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Chinese goods.
China and the US held three rounds of talks subsequently, and at one point the
two countries published a joint statement, signalling that they had reached a
consensus that a trade war should be prevented. It was said that if Washington
did not impose tariffs on China, China would agree to buy US$70 billion worth
of American agricultural, energy and industrial products. But then Trump went
back on his word, and the agreement became void. Despite American officials'
claim that there is still room for negotiation, the fact that three rounds of
talks have come to nothing should be a lesson that merits one's attention. It
is doubtful whether a trade war between China and the US can be prevented.
With the spectre of a Sino-US trade war looming, Donald Trump and the
Republican Party, eyeing the mid-term elections late this year, are emphasising
"America first" and exerting pressure on China. But this could lead
to China's retaliation and hit the heartland of the Republican party. This is
why Donald Trump has not crossed swords with China for real. However, one of
the US's strategic targets is "Made in China 2025", with the aim
being to hinder the development of China's high-tech industries. When the
mid-term elections are over, Donald Trump and the Republican party will be free
from election worries. The US could be even more unrestricted in its all-out
containment of China. The Beijing authorities should be prepared for a drawn-out
campaign against the US.
Over the past six months, Donald Trump has waged trade wars on many
fronts. Apart from exerting pressure on China, Washington has, citing "the
national interest", imposed tariffs on global steel and aluminium, causing
tensions between the US and its allies such as the European Union, Canada and
Japan. The G7 summit held previously was itself a chance for Europe, the US and
Japan to present a united front against China. But the issue of steel and
aluminium resulted in a "US versus G6" situation instead. Donald
Trump has recently adopted a softer stance, calling on Europe to negotiate with
the US to reduce trade barriers. But Europe has reacted coolly to the call.
Last month Trump ordered the Department of Commerce to model a new tariff on
the existing one, tasking the department with reviewing the US's tariff
policies on cars and parts with the imposition of tariffs on steel and
aluminium as a template. The US's trade disputes with other advanced industrial
countries could go further and further. Trump's acts of diplomatic arson have
in fact eased the pressure on China. Asō Tarō, the Japanese Minister of
Finance, also believes that US protectionism is "advantageous to
China".
Since the beginning of this year, US steel prices have risen nearly 40%,
making US steel over 50% more expensive than that from Europe and China. When
the cost of manufacturing rises, it will definitely hurt the competitiveness of
American products. Furthermore, the European Union and countries such as Canada,
Japan and Mexico, all of which have been affected by the tariffs, are about to
impose tariffs on American products in retaliation, involving more than US$40
billion. The impact on the US economy could be greater than that suffered by
the countries on which the US has imposed tariffs.
貿易戰美無差別攻擊 勝負關鍵看誰能忍痛
中美貿易戰一觸即發，上周白宮宣布向總值500億美元的中國貨徵收25%關稅，中方即時採取「同等規模同等力度」反擊。
今年3月特朗普威脅對中國商品加徵關稅，之後中美先後3輪談判，兩國一度發表聯合聲明，就避免「貿易戰」達成共識。有消息指如果華府不加徵關稅，中方同意購買總值700億美元美國農產品、能源和工業製成品。然而特朗普出爾反爾，兩國談判成果已成一紙空文。雖然美方官員表示，仍有談判斡旋餘地，然而前車可鑑，之前3輪談判竟是白談一場，中美是否真能避過貿易戰，叫人好生懷疑。
中美貿易戰山雨欲來，特朗普及共和黨放眼年底中期選舉，強調「美國優先」向華施壓，有利討好選民，惟因中方可能貿易報復，打擊共和黨票倉地區，所以特朗普暫時也不敢與中方動真格打起來。然而美方一大戰略意圖，是打擊「中國製造2025」，遏阻中國高科技產業發展，隨着中期選舉結束，特朗普及共和黨暫無後顧之憂，不排除美方可能更加放手全力遏制中國，北京要有跟美國打持久戰的準備。
過去半年，特朗普挑起多條貿易戰線。除了向中國施壓，華府又假「國家利益」之名，向全球鋼鋁開徵關稅，導致美國跟歐盟、加拿大和日本等盟友關係大為緊張。早前的G7峰會，本來是歐美日槍口一致向中國施壓的機會，然而卻因為鋼鋁問題，演變成「美國對G6」的局面。雖然近日特朗普放軟口風，呼籲歐美磋商減少貿易壁壘，然而歐洲反應冷淡。上月特朗普已下令商務部「照辦煮碗」，參考開徵鋼鋁關稅，檢討進口汽車及零件關稅政策，未來一年美國與其他發達工業國的貿易摩擦，有可能愈演愈烈。特朗普四處挑起火頭，反而有助紓減中國的壓力，日本財相麻生太郎也認為，美國採取保護主義行動「對中國有利」。
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