外圍風險層層疊加 港須做好防風措施

<轉載自2018年6月20日 明報 社評>

中美貿易戰危機升級，全球股市受壓，恒指大跌841點，失守3萬點關口。今年以來環球經濟形勢驟起變化，美國加息步伐可能加快，加上保護主義抬頭和貿易戰風險，疊加壓力愈來愈大，過去兩年港股牛市會否走向終結，需要密切留意。國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）主席拉加德形容，全球經濟前景陰雲密佈，綜觀中美貿易戰最新形勢，也看不到有多少迴旋餘地。資本市場盛宴有盡時，無人能準確預知何時出現最後一根稻草，特區政府和小投資者有必要做好防風準備，面對外圍可能出現的狂濤駭浪。

貿易戰加息山雨欲來 環球經濟形勢恐逆轉

上周美國宣布對500億美元中國商品徵收關稅，總統特朗普警告中方「不得還手」，北京當然不會就範，隨即宣布向等值的美國貨徵稅反擊。特朗普遂要求美國貿易代表再制訂清單，威脅對2000億美元中國貨物徵收10%關稅。中國商務部批評美國變本加厲施壓，手法等同訛詐，如果美方不顧後果再提出徵稅清單，中方將推出數量型和質量型相結合的綜合措施反擊。中美貿易戰火藥味愈來愈濃，港股受壓急挫，市况可能進一步轉差。

今年初，環球經濟增長勢頭強勁，大有希望延續到明年，未料形勢發展不似預期，美國加息步伐可能加快、新興市場資金流走，加上保護主義和貿易戰等不明朗因素不斷積累，大有山雨欲來之勢。中美貿易戰一旦全面開打，對雙方以至全球經濟都將帶來沉重打擊。巴克萊銀行的經濟分析師估算，如果美國向1000億美元中國產品徵收關稅、中方又作出同等規模報復，明年全球經濟增長將下調1個百分點。香港作為外向型開放經濟體，很難避過池魚之殃。

美林美銀一項調查顯示，投資大戶認為目前市場最大風險是貿易戰，其次是央行決策出錯，雖然大戶仍然看好股市，惟資產組合卻維持偏高的現金水平，反映他們對市場風險有顧忌。上周歐洲央行表示，量化寬鬆政策有機會年底結束，惟明年下半年之前都不會加息，步伐較預期為遲，反映歐洲貨幣決策者也留意到環球市場風險，德國更將今年經濟增長預測下調半個百分點，降至2％。德國央行總裁魏德曼警告，不明朗因素顯著增加，一大原因是美國的作為，加深保護主義蔓延全球的風險，關稅貿易糾紛惡化，勢將損害德國經濟。新興市場方面，局面也是暗湧處處。數據顯示，中國受貿易戰陰霾影響，經濟增長有所放緩，部分新興國家更受美國聯儲局擴大退市規模和加息影響，「走資」問題嚴重。

美拿全球經濟作賭注 本港資產盛宴難永享

美國經濟數據表現理想，上周聯儲局一如市場預期加息1/4厘，議息聲明內容還偏向「鷹派」，聯儲局成員預期全年合共加息4次，比3月時的預計多了1次，預料在2020年前，貨幣收縮步伐都不會停止。另外，特朗普大規模減稅，不但增加財赤和發債壓力，也可能令經濟過熱，導致聯儲局要加快上調息率。美國息口趨升，加上美元轉強，對巴西、印尼等新興市場構成愈來愈大的資金外流壓力，最近土耳其和阿根廷為了穩定匯率和市場，已被迫大幅加息。雖然迄今新興市場未有爆發嚴重危機，然而風險不能忽視。

聯儲局3年內7度加息，本港一直未有跟隨，市場資金充裕，造就過去兩年港股牛市盛世，樓價有升無跌。雖然近月本港亦見資金外流，惟未算嚴重。自從今年4月港元匯率首次觸及弱方兌換保證以來，金管局共承接700億港元沽盤，然而本港銀行體系結餘仍有逾千億元，即使港元銀行同業拆息趨升，大銀行仍然未有迫切壓力加息。不過隨着美國加息步伐加快，港美息差擴闊，下半年本港銀行始終可能要跟隨加息，加上中美貿易戰形勢急轉直下，本港資產市場不可能永遠火紅，政府和投資者有需要多做防風措施，提防最後一根稻草倏然壓下。

中美貿易戰是否無可避免，仍然存在變數，惟觀乎美國參議院大比數通過維持對中興的採購禁令，反映美國視華為經濟威脅，實為政治大氣候，部分人甚至抱着「不妨先打一下再看情况」的心態看待貿易戰，情况叫人憂慮。IMF主席拉加德指出，美國的貿易和財政政策，可能打擊全球經濟增長，並會倒過來損害美國經濟和就業。今年初辭任白宮首席經濟顧問的科恩亦警告，特朗普發動貿易戰，恐令大幅減稅的經濟效益「一筆勾銷」，導致美國物價急漲、消費者債務增加，危害美國經濟。環球經濟緊扣相連，沒有任何國家可以獨善其身，可是言者諄諄，聽者藐藐，倘若特朗普執意拿美國以至全球經濟作賭注，各地政府也只能盡力做好應變準備。

Precautions needed against strong headwinds

STOCK MARKETS have sunk around the world amid escalating risks of a Sino-US trade war. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index plummeted 841 points and fell below the key 30,000 level. This year has seen sudden changes in the global economic circumstances. With the US possibly speeding up its interest rate hikes, protectionism gaining ground and the risks of a trade war going up, pressure is mounting on multiple fronts. One has to watch closely whether the bull run in Hong Kong's stock markets will end after lasting for two years. Managing director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Christine Lagarde has described the global economic outlook as covered with dark clouds and there does not seem to be much room for manoeuvre given the latest circumstances concerning the two countries' trade disputes. In capital markets, all good things come to an end. No one can accurately predict when the last straw will fall. The SAR government and small investors should be well prepared for strong headwinds and be ready to face all possible storms that may rage in the external environment.

Last week Washington announced new tariffs on US$50 billion worth of Chinese goods. President Trump even warned China "not to hit back". Beijing, of course, refused to submit and immediately retaliated by announcing new tariffs on the same scale. Trump then directed the US Trade Representative to draw up a new list of goods and threatened to slap an extra 10% tariff on a further US$200 billion worth of Chinese goods. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce blasted the US for escalating pressure on China and accused it of "blackmailing". It said if the US acted irrationally and issued another list, China would forcefully fight back with a comprehensive set of qualitative and quantitative countermeasures. As a trade war is increasingly imminent, Hong Kong stocks have tumbled. It is possible that market conditions may worsen even further.

The global economy kicked off this year with a strong momentum of growth and high hopes of the growth continuing into next year. However, the situation has not developed as expected. From the possible hastening of the US's pace of interest rate hikes, to capital flight from emerging markets, to protectionism, to trade wars, uncertainties have continued to accumulate. Everything seems to be foreboding a coming storm. Should an all-out Sino-US trade war break out, both nations as well as the entire world will be subjected to devastating blows economically. Barclays analysts have predicted that if the US levies tariffs on US$100 billion worth of Chinese goods and China retaliates with measures on the same scale, global economic growth will drop by one percentage point next year. As an externally oriented open economy, Hong Kong will find it hard to evade the shock.

The US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates seven times in three years but Hong Kong's banks have not followed suit. The abundance of market capital has contributed to the bullishness in the Hong Kong stock market for the past two years and the ever rising property prices. Although an outflow of capital has been seen in recent months, it has been happening on a modest scale. Since the weak-side Convertibility Undertaking (CU) of the HK dollar exchange rate against the US dollar was triggered for the first time this April, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) has altogether undertaken HK$70 billion selling orders of the Hong Kong dollar. However, the aggregate balance of the local banking system is still above HK$100 billion. Therefore, even with the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (HIBOR) on the rise, local major banks do not feel the urge to raise interest rates. Nevertheless, as the US hastens its pace of interest rate hikes, the spread between Hong Kong and US interest rates is set to widen. In the end, local banks may still have to raise interest rates in the second half of this year. Taking also into consideration the rapidly deteriorating circumstances surrounding Sino-US trade disputes, one should realise that the local capital market cannot stay blooming forever. The government and investors need to take more precautions against strong headwinds and watch out for the sudden fall of the last straw.

外圍風險層層疊加 港須做好防風措施

中美貿易戰危機升級，全球股市受壓，恒指大跌841點，失守3萬點關口。今年以來環球經濟形勢驟起變化，美國加息步伐可能加快，加上保護主義抬頭和貿易戰風險，疊加壓力愈來愈大，過去兩年港股牛市會否走向終結，需要密切留意。國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）主席拉加德形容，全球經濟前景陰雲密佈，綜觀中美貿易戰最新形勢，也看不到有多少迴旋餘地。資本市場盛宴有盡時，無人能準確預知何時出現最後一根稻草，特區政府和小投資者有必要做好防風準備，面對外圍可能出現的狂濤駭浪。

上周美國宣布對500億美元中國商品徵收關稅，總統特朗普警告中方「不得還手」，北京當然不會就範，隨即宣布向等值的美國貨徵稅反擊。特朗普遂要求美國貿易代表再制訂清單，威脅對2000億美元中國貨物徵收10%關稅。中國商務部批評美國變本加厲施壓，手法等同訛詐，如果美方不顧後果再提出徵稅清單，中方將推出數量型和質量型相結合的綜合措施反擊。中美貿易戰火藥味愈來愈濃，港股受壓急挫，市况可能進一步轉差。

今年初，環球經濟增長勢頭強勁，大有希望延續到明年，未料形勢發展不似預期，美國加息步伐可能加快、新興市場資金流走，加上保護主義和貿易戰等不明朗因素不斷積累，大有山雨欲來之勢。中美貿易戰一旦全面開打，對雙方以至全球經濟都將帶來沉重打擊。巴克萊銀行的經濟分析師估算，如果美國向1000億美元中國產品徵收關稅、中方又作出同等規模報復，明年全球經濟增長將下調1個百分點。香港作為外向型開放經濟體，很難避過池魚之殃。

聯儲局3年內7度加息，本港一直未有跟隨，市場資金充裕，造就過去兩年港股牛市盛世，樓價有升無跌。雖然近月本港亦見資金外流，惟未算嚴重。自從今年4月港元匯率首次觸及弱方兌換保證以來，金管局共承接700億港元沽盤，然而本港銀行體系結餘仍有逾千億元，即使港元銀行同業拆息趨升，大銀行仍然未有迫切壓力加息。不過隨着美國加息步伐加快，港美息差擴闊，下半年本港銀行始終可能要跟隨加息，加上中美貿易戰形勢急轉直下，本港資產市場不可能永遠火紅，政府和投資者有需要多做防風措施，提防最後一根稻草倏然壓下。