中韓中日關係面臨新局

<轉載自2017年5月22日 明報 社評>

韓國新總統文在寅上任後，派出特使團出訪中美日俄歐，赴華特使李海瓚上周獲國家主席習近平接見，並遞交了文在寅致習近平的親筆信，預計因部署「薩德」（THAAD，末段高空區域導彈防禦系統）而陷入低潮的中韓關係出現轉機；另一方面，出席一帶一路高峰論壇的日本代表二階俊博亦在與習近平見面時遞交了首相安倍晉三的親筆信，表達了改善中日關係的願望。隨後又傳出中國國務委員楊潔篪有望訪日，為7月兩國領袖峰會作準備。中韓、中日關係的這種戲劇性變化，與朝鮮核危機稍緩有關，也與近期中國的外交策略調整，以及中美關係的演變有關。

文在寅鬆動韓薩德立場 中方示好雙方有落台階

中韓關係的緩和，首先是因韓國選出了對華和對朝政策較為溫和的新總統文在寅，他甫上台就表示要重新考慮「薩德」的部署。韓國一項最新的民調結果顯示，56.1%受訪者認為「應重新探討部署薩德的決定」，而堅持「應接納部署決定」的受訪者僅佔39.9%，顯示主張應重新檢討薩德部署的輿論大幅高漲。

在中國方面，文在寅當選伊始，習近平就致電祝賀，文就任後兩人又通電話，並在一帶一路峰會召開前夕向韓國發出邀請，在朝韓雙方均派團出席的情况下，習近平只接見了韓國代表而未接見朝鮮代表，對韓示好的態度溢於言表。另一方面，中方加緊對朝鮮施壓，據日媒報道，4月18日平壤曾向北京通報兩日後將核試，但遭中方強烈警告，若核試將全面封鎖中朝邊界，令朝方知難而退，此舉展現了中方處理朝核危機的誠意。後來朝鮮雖又試射導彈，但與核試的震撼力畢竟不可同日而語。與此同時，中方亦嘗試改變策略，逐步將「薩德」問題與中韓關係區分開來，並希望美韓對已經部署的雷達裝備採取技術措施，固定向北而非向西探測，並保證不再升級設備，以尋求解決「薩德」問題的突破口。

「薩德」問題的實質是美國利用朝鮮導彈威脅為由，追求對中俄兩國戰略威懾優勢之舉，韓國是不幸被捲入這場大國角逐，中國已聲明會採取戰略武器部署等軍事應對手段，就這些手段是直接針對美國的戰略武器而非針對韓國的。一俟中方的應對措施準備完畢，中美戰略威懾平衡重新恢復，「薩德」對中韓關係的影響終會告一段落。

今年是中韓建交25周年，雙方都有意在「薩德」問題找落台階，只不過，經過此番折騰，韓國已遭受了8.5萬億韓圜（約580多億港元）經濟損失，中韓兩國民眾彼此之間的好感大挫，這些傷害都不是短時期內可以恢復的。

東京有越頂外交危機感 中日結構性矛盾仍難解

而且，中韓關係的改善還有朝鮮和美國兩大外部因素，文在寅雖然是前總統盧武鉉對北方「陽光政策」的繼承人，但平壤對他的上台似乎未釋善意，接連試射導彈又出言挑釁。朝鮮雖派團出席北京一帶一路峰會，但對中方芥蒂仍深。美國現在雖然在朝鮮問題上對中國倚賴較多，但口沒遮攔的特朗普不排除還會刺激平壤，令半島局勢再度升溫，則中韓關係會再度面臨考驗。

與中韓關係不同，中日關係的改善更多地是受近期中美關係變化的影響。安倍最近對華示好的動作不斷，如派遣親華派自民黨幹事長二階俊博出席一帶一路峰會，不僅攜帶安倍本人致習近平的親筆信，更由首相秘書官隨團訪問，做法罕見。而且安倍更放風稱，只要滿足一些條件，日本不排除加入之前堅持杯葛、由中方主導的亞投行。

日方的連串動作令人想起1972年的「越頂外交」衝擊，當年2月，美國總統尼克遜突然訪華，震撼了日本朝野，日方大有被美方出賣拋棄之感。隨後，一直追隨美國外交路線的首相佐藤榮作黯然下台，由主張日中關係正常化的田中角榮取而代之，於是中日在當年9月實現邦交正常化。特朗普上台以來，美國先是退出跨太平洋伙伴關係協定（TPP），又在朝核問題上對中國多番讚賞，中美貿易談判取得重大進展，美國更派團出席一向冷待的中國一帶一路峰會，令日本外交界產生了些許與當年類似的危機感。

與中韓關係的單一「薩德」問題不同，中日關係存在結構性矛盾，除了釣魚島和東海油氣田的爭議外，歷史問題更是困擾雙邊關係的老問題。加上近期日本與台灣將雙方常駐機構更名一事，更引發北京不滿。今年7月是中國抗日戰爭開始80周年，9月則是中日邦交正常化45周年，北京對這兩個日子的紀念規格，將是觀察中日關係走向的晴雨表。

China's relations with ROK and Japan

NEW President of the Republic of Korea (ROK) Moon Jae-in has sent special envoys to China, the US, Japan, Russia and Europe. Last week Lee Hae-chan, his special envoy to the People's Republic of China (PRC), was given an audience with President Xi Jinping, whom he handed Moon's personal letter. PRC-ROK relations, which have been at a low ebb because of the deployment of THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defence), are expected to take a favourable turn. Meanwhile, Toshihiro Nikai, who represented Japan at the Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, handed Xi Jinping Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's personal letter when he met the latter. In the letter Abe expressed his wish that Sino-Japanese relations would improve. It has subsequently transpired that there is hope that State Councillor Yang Jiechi will go to Japan next July to make preparations for a summit between leaders of the two countries. Such dramatic changes in PRC-ROK relations and Sino-Japanese relations have to do with the fact that the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK) nuclear crisis has eased slightly, China has recently readjusted its diplomatic strategy and there have been changes in Sino-US relations.

PRC-ROK relations have eased primarily because Moon, whose China policy and DPRK policy are relatively moderate, has been elected ROK president. No sooner had he taken power than he said that THAAD's deployment should be reconsidered.

As soon as Moon got elected, Xi called him and offered him his congratulations. The two again talked over the phone after Moon had taken office. On the eve of the Belt and Road summit, the PRC sent the ROK an invitation. Both the DPRK and the ROK were represented at the summit. However, Xi granted the ROK representative an audience but not the DPRK representative. His intention to be friendly towards the ROK has come through in overtones. The PRC has pressured the DPRK harder. Meanwhile, it has tried to change its strategy — gradually to separate THAAD from PRC-ROK relations. And it hopes that the US and the ROK will take technological measures to fix the radar equipment installed northward rather than westward and undertake not to upgrade the equipment in question.

Sino-Japanese relations are different in nature from PRC-ROK relations. It is to a greater extent because of recent changes in Sino-US relations that Sino-Japanese relations have improved. Abe has recently kept doing what may evidence his goodwill towards China. For example, he sent Liberal Democratic Party secretary general Toshihiro Nikai to the Belt and Road summit and had his executive secretary accompany him. Such moves are rarely seen. Furthermore, Abe has given out that, if certain conditions are met, the possibility of Japan joining the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (which China mainly controls and which it persevered in boycotting) should not be ruled out.

After Donald Trump had been sworn in, the US withdrew from the Tran-Pacific Partnership (TPP). It has repeatedly heaped praise on China in relation to the DPRK nuclear problem, and much progress has been made in Sino-US trade talks. The US even sent its representatives to the summit about "Belt and Road", to which it had all along been cold. That has somehow brought about a sense of crisis among Japanese diplomats.

A single issue (that of THAAD) has clouded PRC-ROK relations. That is not the case with Sino-Japanese relations because there are structural conflicts between the two countries. They are in dispute with each other about the Diaoyus and oil and gas fields in the East China Sea. Furthermore, it has recently displeased Beijing for Japan and Taiwan to have changed the names of their permanent bodies in each other's territories. China is to mark next July the 80 anniversary of the onset of the War of Resistance against Japan Aggression and next September the 45th anniversary of the normalisation of Sino-Japanese relations. The standard Beijing will meet in marking the two anniversaries is a barometer with which to observe how Sino-Japanese relations will trend.

中韓中日關係面臨新局

韓國新總統文在寅上任後，派出特使團出訪中美日俄歐，赴華特使李海瓚上周獲國家主席習近平接見，並遞交了文在寅致習近平的親筆信，預計因部署「薩德」（THAAD，末段高空區域導彈防禦系統）而陷入低潮的中韓關係出現轉機；另一方面，出席一帶一路高峰論壇的日本代表二階俊博亦在與習近平見面時遞交了首相安倍晉三的親筆信，表達了改善中日關係的願望。隨後又傳出中國國務委員楊潔篪有望訪日，為7月兩國領袖峰會作準備。中韓、中日關係的這種戲劇性變化，與朝鮮核危機稍緩有關，也與近期中國的外交策略調整，以及中美關係的演變有關。

中韓關係的緩和，首先是因韓國選出了對華和對朝政策較為溫和的新總統文在寅，他甫上台就表示要重新考慮「薩德」的部署。

文在寅當選伊始，習近平就致電祝賀，文就任後兩人又通電話，並在一帶一路峰會召開前夕向韓國發出邀請，在朝韓雙方均派團出席的情况下，習近平只接見了韓國代表而未接見朝鮮代表，對韓示好的態度溢於言表。另一方面，中方加緊對朝鮮施壓。同時，中方亦嘗試改變策略，逐步將「薩德」問題與中韓關係區分開來，並希望美韓對已經部署的雷達裝備採取技術措施，固定向北而非向西探測，並保證不再升級設備。

與中韓關係不同，中日關係的改善更多地是受近期中美關係變化的影響。安倍最近對華示好的動作不斷，如派遣親華派自民黨幹事長二階俊博出席一帶一路峰會，並由首相秘書官隨團訪問，做法罕見。而且安倍更放風稱，只要滿足一些條件，日本不排除加入之前堅持杯葛、由中方主導的亞投行。

特朗普上台以來，美國先是退出跨太平洋伙伴關係協定（TPP），又在朝核問題上對中國多番讚賞，中美貿易談判取得重大進展，美國更派團出席一向冷待的中國一帶一路峰會，令日本外交界產生了些許危機感。

與中韓關係的單一「薩德」問題不同，中日關係存在結構性矛盾，除了釣魚島和東海油氣田的爭議外，近期日本與台灣將雙方常駐機構更名一事，更引發北京不滿。今年7月是中國抗日戰爭開始80周年，9月則是中日邦交正常化45周年，北京對這兩個日子的紀念規格，將是觀察中日關係走向的晴雨表。