國泰褪色求振作 痛楚改革難迴避

<轉載自2017年5月23日 明報 社評>

國泰宣布20年來最大規模裁員，裁減600名員工，當中190人屬高級及中級管理層，預料稍後還有下一波裁員行動。國泰曾是港人引以為傲的「五星級」航空公司，惟近年逐漸褪色，去年公司錄得近6億元虧損，燃油對冲損手近85億元。有工會人士不滿裁員，批評公司將對冲投資失利的責任，轉嫁到一般員工身上，然而國泰面對的問題，遠不止是「炒輸期油」那麼簡單。公司組織臃腫、改革步伐遲緩、競爭力持續下滑，令國泰陷入結構性的困境之中，去年營業額銳減百億元，已為危機敲響警號。國泰有責任向被裁員工提供協助和支援，不過為了重振雄風，大刀闊斧改革確亦難以迴避。

營業額銳減響警號 大幅裁員無可奈何

國泰裁走的190名中、高級管理層人員，佔管理職位25%，餘下約400人則屬非管理人員職位，佔相關職位18%。雖然國泰早已宣布，鑑於市場競爭愈益激烈，公司將推出3年轉型計劃，預告將會削減人手成本三成，惟今次裁員規模之大，本港甚為少見，各界自然議論紛紛，例如有議員關注會否影響安全和服務質素，亦有工會人士質疑，資方向無辜員工開刀，將嚴重打擊士氣。國泰有必要以實際行動釋除公眾疑慮，並向被裁員工提供合理支援和補償。

自1986年上市以來，國泰只曾先後在1998年、2008年和2016年錄得虧損。1998年的虧損，原因是亞洲金融風暴；2008年的虧損，原因是金融海嘯。可是2016年的虧損，卻與國際經濟形勢沒有明顯關係。有論者認為，去年國泰出現虧蝕主因是「炒輸期油」。數年前國際油價高企，國泰大手買入燃油對冲合約，未料其後油價急瀉，2014年國泰開始出現燃油對冲虧損，3年合共損失近180億元，對公司的業績構成壓力。然而必須指出的是，2015年國泰的燃油對冲損失也接近85億元，跟今年相若，可是當年公司仍錄得60億元盈利，反映「炒輸期油」並不是國泰的致命傷。全球航空業競爭愈益激烈，營業額顯著下跌，才是國泰眼前的最大考驗。簡單地將裁員問題歸咎於「炒輸期油」，容易令人忽略了國泰競爭力下降的問題。

國泰營業額銳減，由前年的1023億元，下跌至去年的928億元，在全球不同市場的收入都出現倒退。這一情况既有外在因素，亦有國泰自身的問題。近年內地航空公司發展迅速，很多城市都陸續增設直飛外國重要城市的航線，經由香港轉飛的人次顯著減少。國泰一直主打高檔優質服務路線，尤其重視吸引商務乘客，不過近年全球經濟增長放緩，商務客位需求增長疲弱，大大影響公司收入。

再者，今時今日消費者的旅遊習慣已悄然改變，對於短途旅程，機票便宜比起有否飛機餐或機上娛樂設施更為重要，導致廉航搶走國泰不少客源；長途旅客方面，國泰則面臨「中東三寶」（卡塔爾航空、阿提哈德航空和阿聯酋航空）的挑戰。國泰強調要讓乘客搭得舒適，一直拒絕加密大型客機的每行座位數目，以維護「五星級」服務的聲譽；「中東三寶」等一眾大型航空公司選擇適度加密座位，接載更多乘客，從而減低營運成本和機票價錢。對來往歐亞的長途旅客來說，「中東三寶」既有價格優勢，兼享地理優勢轉機方便，服務水平也不俗，國泰自然較為吃虧。

表面風光外強中乾 香港國泰同需振作

此外，國泰架構臃腫、服務涵蓋範圍過大，也成為了一大擔子。有國際航空業分析師指出，國泰遍及180個航點的網絡似乎過於龐大，部分航線成本效益低，很難長期維持，需要裁減。國泰運營成本持續高於競爭對手，唯一救亡方法就是厲行改革。國泰提出3年重組計劃，決定增加經濟艙座位數目一成，與其他大型航空公司做法看齊，同時裁減冗員精簡架構，將人手開支削減三成，平情而論是無可奈何但必要的做法。事實上，新加坡航空公司（新航）的處境，跟國泰亦相當類似。上周新航才宣布今年頭3個月錄得1億新加坡元虧損，強調要採取激進大膽措施控制成本，以應付「中東三寶」等挑戰。國泰若不加緊改革，發憤圖強，只會愈益被競爭對手拋離。

國泰曾經四度榮登全球最佳航空公司排行榜第一位，為香港爭光，可是近年無論是業績還是服務水平，均有拾級而下之勢，除了在「全球最佳」排行榜跌出三甲，競爭力方面更未能躋身亞洲十強之內。國泰面對的不是周期困難，而是結構性的挑戰，儘管表面仍然風光，惟卻有外強中乾之勢，令人聯想到今時今日香港的處境。無論是國泰還是香港，都必須急求振作，擺脫停滯不前的困局，不能繼續吃老本。改革必然痛苦，但是拖拖拉拉不下苦功，結局只會是走向衰敗。

Reform badly needed for Cathay Pacific

CATHAY PACIFIC has announced the biggest wave of layoffs in 20 years, dismissing 600 of its staff which include 190 people from middle and senior echelons. It is expected that another wave of job cuts is in the pipeline.

The 190 middle and senior managerial roles made redundant by Cathay Pacific accounted for 25 per cent of total managerial positions. The remaining 400 people who have been sacked held non-managerial roles and made up 18 per cent of all such posts. Cathay Pacific had announced in advance that due to intense market competition, the company would launch a three-year transformation plan and slash its cost of labour by 30 per cent. In spite of this, the scale of the layoffs is seldom seen before in Hong Kong, and that has led to heated discussion. Some lawmakers are concerned that such actions might affect safety and service quality, while people from labour unions argue that by taking the axe to staff, who are not to blame, the management will seriously hurt morale. It is necessary for Cathay Pacific to dispel doubts from the public with real action. It must also provide reasonable assistance and compensation for those who have been dismissed.

Cathay Pacific has suffered a steep decline in turnover, which slumped from $102.3 billion in the year before last to $92.8 billion last year. Revenue dropped in every market all around the world. This is attributable not only to external factors but also to problems within Cathay Pacific itself. In recent years, following the rapid development of mainland airlines, many cities have added direct air routes to major cities outside China. As a result, much fewer people change flights in Hong Kong. Cathay Pacific has long concentrated on premium service routes and business passengers. However, as a result of the slowdown in global economic growth in recent years, demand for business class seats has grown slowly, and this has seriously affected the company's income.

And the travelling modes of consumers have changed without many noticing. When it comes to short-haul flights, cost-efficiency of tickets has become more important than the provision of plane meals or entertainment facilities. Low-cost airlines have taken a lot of passengers from Cathay Pacific. As for long-haul flights, Cathay Pacific is faced with challenges from the "Middle East trio", namely Qatar Airways, Etihad Airways and Emirates. Stressing the need to ensure passengers' comfort on the plane, Cathay Pacific has been refusing to increase the number of seats on each row on its large passenger aircraft so as to maintain its reputation as a "five-star" service provider. Big airlines like the "Middle East trio", on the contrary, have chosen to do this to carry more passengers and lower operating costs and ticket prices. To long-haul passengers flying between Europe and Asia, the "Middle East trio" enjoy price advantages and also geographical advantages, which make changes of flights more convenient. These advantages, coupled with the fact that these airlines also provide decent services, have inevitably put Cathay Pacific at a disadvantage.

Cathay Pacific used to be an honour to Hong Kong people, as it was four times ranked first in tables of the world's best airlines. But in recent years, its results and service quality have entered a downward spiral. Not only has it been unseated from the top three places in tables of the world's best airliners, it is no longer one of the top ten Asian airlines in terms of competitiveness. Cathay Pacific is faced with a structural challenge, not a periodic hardship. On the outside it is doing well, but it is in fact in decline. This is redolent of Hong Kong's current situation. Both Cathay Pacific and Hong Kong must try to get back on their feet as soon as possible and find a way out of the predicament of sluggishness; they must not rely only on their existing advantages any longer.

國泰褪色求振作 痛楚改革難迴避

國泰宣布20年來最大規模裁員，裁減600名員工，當中190人屬高級及中級管理層，預料稍後還有下一波裁員行動。

國泰裁走的190名中、高級管理層人員，佔管理職位25%，餘下約400人則屬非管理人員職位，佔相關職位18%。雖然國泰早已宣布，鑑於市場競爭愈益激烈，公司將推出3年轉型計劃，預告將會削減人手成本三成，惟今次裁員規模之大，本港甚為少見，各界自然議論紛紛，例如有議員關注會否影響安全和服務質素，亦有工會人士質疑，資方向無辜員工開刀，將嚴重打擊士氣。國泰有必要以實際行動釋除公眾疑慮，並向被裁員工提供合理支援和補償。

國泰營業額銳減，由前年的1023億元，下跌至去年的928億元，在全球不同市場的收入都出現倒退。這一情况既有外在因素，亦有國泰自身的問題。近年內地航空公司發展迅速，很多城市都陸續增設直飛外國重要城市的航線，經由香港轉飛的人次顯著減少。國泰一直主打高檔優質服務路線，尤其重視吸引商務乘客，不過近年全球經濟增長放緩，商務客位需求增長疲弱，大大影響公司收入。

再者，今時今日消費者的旅遊習慣已悄然改變，對於短途旅程，機票便宜比起有否飛機餐或機上娛樂設施更為重要，導致廉航搶走國泰不少客源；長途旅客方面，國泰則面臨「中東三寶」（卡塔爾航空、阿提哈德航空和阿聯酋航空）的挑戰。國泰強調要讓乘客搭得舒適，一直拒絕加密大型客機的每行座位數目，以維護「五星級」服務的聲譽；「中東三寶」等一眾大型航空公司選擇適度加密座位，接載更多乘客，從而減低營運成本和機票價錢。對來往歐亞的長途旅客來說，「中東三寶」既有價格優勢，兼享地理優勢轉機方便，服務水平也不俗，國泰自然較為吃虧。

國泰曾經四度榮登全球最佳航空公司排行榜第一位，為香港爭光，可是近年無論是業績還是服務水平，均有拾級而下之勢，除了在「全球最佳」排行榜跌出三甲，競爭力方面更未能躋身亞洲十強之內。國泰面對的不是周期困難，而是結構性的挑戰，儘管表面仍然風光，惟卻有外強中乾之勢，令人聯想到今時今日香港的處境。無論是國泰還是香港，都必須急求振作，擺脫停滯不前的困局，不能繼續吃老本。