南海爭端轉進新階段 中美面心不和難突破

<轉載自2015年6月22日 明報 社評>

中國在南沙7個島礁的填海造地工程據報快將完工，下一階段將展開島上的基礎設施建設；上周，中國外交部表示這些島礁建設是滿足必要的軍事需求，更多的是為民事需求服務。無疑，中國若停止填海造地，美國及周邊一些國家的反對聲音將會減少，但並不意味可以消除敵意，尤其是中美關係隱現建交36年以來的新形態，而這種新形態極可能在今年9月習近平訪美期間浮現。

新形態中美關係9月習訪美將浮現

南海局勢發展並不出人意料，因為一向在該海域佔有主導角色的美國，驚覺受到中國挑戰，作出各種反應自是必然。二次大戰結束以來，南海及周邊國家在反共氛圍成長，構成對中國不滿甚至敵視的本質；中國在這一海域填海造地，這些國家包括美國的反應會是如何，中方必然早有計算。如今米已成炊，如何後續是焦點所在——中國不可能長期與南海周邊有主權爭議的國家對抗，如果期以軍事手段解決，那是粗糙不堪的思維，「打一仗長治久安」只是一些人亂吹牛皮，因此隨着填海工程暫告一段落，相信下階段便是經濟攻勢。

中國政府推動的「一帶一路」，將會是與南海周邊國家緩和關係的一着棋。從亞投行的成立看來，中國對區內國家有兩種應對手段﹕一、主權問題態度強硬，例如中方大舉填海造地；二、經濟共存共榮，「一帶一路」便是起着如此作用。東亞是潛力豐厚的經濟新生地區，中國的巨大經濟實力，是區內國家期許的火車頭。中國政府深明這根胡蘿蔔的作用，一些傳統上對中國敵意濃厚的國家，不得不承認中國經濟大餅的確誘人。以曾於1962年與中國爆發邊境戰爭的印度為例，中印之間敵對未見消弭，但印度總理仍視中國為經濟伙伴。「一帶一路」南線經過之處是南海大片海域，這條經濟快船經過家門，南海各國會否心動，從而「重經濟，輕政治」，值得觀察。

美國本來就在這塊地區擁有影響力，菲律賓更是冷戰年代美國區內大型軍事基地所在；1967年成立的東盟，則是美國在區內圍堵中蘇的棋子，加上昔年美元所到之處眾皆低頭，美國在這裏呼風喚雨多年。時移世易，美國在區內已無重點軍事基地，經濟實力過去10年呈現下降，難以通過美援來爭取支持。這就給中國一個頗大的進入區內空間，爭奪南海話語權甚至主導權。因此，幾可斷言，當填海造地告一段落，接下來是經濟實力比併。當然，政治經濟雙軌並行，南海國家會否全盤接受，仍得看經濟胡蘿蔔是不是具有吸引力。

政治強硬經濟放手 一帶一路吸引鄰國

中美在南海的短兵相接，將隨着填海造地告一段落而緩和，然而在南海問題上中美已露出底牌，兩國關係將進入30多年來罕見的關係形態。中國一再強調建構「新型大國關係」，要與美國平起平坐，習近平9月訪問美國，主要議題不出這一範圍。以外交術語來說，這極可能是「坦率的交流」，把中國的想法說清楚，有言在先。當然，中美關係還未至於美俄關係般惡化，因為中國遠未有俄羅斯的軍事實力與美國對着幹。儘管普京經濟凋敝，但「瘦死的駱駝比馬大」，美國不得輕視。中國的軍力及經濟實力不及美國，這時候與美國在各條戰線開打，絕對不是最大利益。因此，在這刻把一己戰略想法明確闡述的中美關係，將會是未來的主流關係形態。

中美關係自從1971年「乒乓外交」以來，長期處於不對稱的狀况，一般的看法是中國有求於美國，多於美國有求於中國。如今北京認為是時候扭轉這一關係，南海的情况堪足說明一切。本星期，中美將舉行戰略與經濟對話，討論內容包含南海以及人民幣匯價等議題，可視為9月中美峰會的前奏，中方的基調，相信不離美國可以在南海與中國共存，但不能再獨自控制南海。類似的聲音將延續到9月，不妨拭目觀之。

South China Sea disputes

CHINA'S reclamation on seven Spratly reefs and islets is reportedly about to end. It will afterwards start its infrastructure projects there. Last week China's foreign ministry said some facilities on those reefs and islets were meant to serve military needs and more of them were meant to serve civilian needs. There is no doubt that, if China stops reclaiming land there, some of its neighbours and the US will be less vociferous in raising objections. However, it does not follow that enmity will end. Sino-US relations (renormalised thirty-six years ago) seem about to take on a new shape, which will in all probability emerge when Xi Jinping visits the US next September.

"One Belt, One Road" (OBOR), which the Chinese government is trying to carry out, is a chess piece China will use to ease its relations with its neighbours. It seems clear from the foundation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank that China wants to deal with other countries in the region in two ways. First, it takes a tough line when it comes to sovereignty. For example, it has carried out reclamation in the South China Sea in a big way. Second, economically, it aims at bringing about coexistence and common prosperity. OBOR is supposed to have that effect.

The US has held sway in the region for many years. But things are no longer what they were. It no longer has key military bases there and, as its economic power has apparently fallen over the past decade, it can hardly trade aid for support now. It has therefore been quite possible for China to get into the region to gain a say and even seize the initiative about the South China Sea. One can almost say for certain a contest of economic power will begin when China's reclamation there ends. Needless to say, what is economic goes in parallel with what is political. Whether South China Sea countries will accept all the economic carrots China offers them depends on whether they appeal to them.

The Sino-US skirmish about the South China Sea will ease when China's reclamation there comes to an end. However, the two countries have already shown their respective hands. Sino-US relations are about to take on a new shape rarely seen over the past three decades. China has repeatedly placed emphasis on "new type great power relations". It wants to be on an equal footing with the US. What Xi will mainly talk about with his counterpart when he is in the US next September lies within these confines. In diplomatic jargon, theirs will most probably be a "candid exchange", at which Xi will make it clear to the US beforehand where China stands. China is not as strong as the US economically or militarily. It is certainly not in its best interests now to start fighting with the US on all fronts. The shape Sino-US relations will take on after the two countries have delineated their respective strategic ideas will remain largely unchanged for some time.

Sino-US relations have long remained asymmetrical since 1971, when they pursued "ping-pong diplomacy". It is generally supposed that China asks more of the US than the US of China. Beijing thinks it is time the tables were turned. This is quite clear from what has happened in the South China Sea. What is to be discussed at the China-US Strategic and Economic Dialogue this week includes matters concerning the South China Sea and the yuan's exchange rates. One may regard it as an overture to the Sino-US summit scheduled for next September. Conceivably, China's keynote will be just this: that the US may coexist with China in the South China Sea but must no longer hold the sway there alone.

南海爭端轉進新階段 中美面心不和難突破

中國在南沙7個島礁的填海造地工程據報快將完工，下一階段將展開島上的基礎設施建設；上周，中國外交部表示這些島礁建設是滿足必要的軍事需求，更多的是為民事需求服務。無疑，中國若停止填海造地，美國及周邊一些國家的反對聲音將會減少，但並不意味可以消除敵意，尤其是中美關係隱現建交36年以來的新形態，而這種新形態極可能在今年9月習近平訪美期間浮現。

中國政府推動的「一帶一路」，將會是與南海周邊國家緩和關係的一着棋。從亞投行的成立看來，中國對區內國家有兩種應對手段﹕一、主權問題態度強硬，例如中方大舉填海造地；二、經濟共存共榮，「一帶一路」便是起着如此作用。

美國在這區呼風喚雨多年。時移世易，美國在區內已無重點軍事基地，經濟實力過去10年呈現下降，難以通過美援來爭取支持。這就給中國一個頗大的進入區內空間，爭奪南海話語權甚至主導權。因此，幾可斷言，當填海造地告一段落，接下來是經濟實力比併。當然，政治經濟雙軌並行，南海國家會否全盤接受，仍得看經濟胡蘿蔔是不是具有吸引力。

中美在南海的短兵相接，將隨着填海造地告一段落而緩和，然而在南海問題上中美已露出底牌，兩國關係將進入30多年來罕見的關係形態。中國一再強調建構「新型大國關係」，要與美國平起平坐，習近平9月訪問美國，主要議題不出這一範圍。以外交術語來說，這極可能是「坦率的交流」，把中國的想法說清楚，有言在先。中國的軍力及經濟實力不及美國，這時候與美國在各條戰線開打，絕對不是最大利益。因此，在這刻把一己戰略想法明確闡述的中美關係，將會是未來的主流關係形態。

中美關係自從1971年「乒乓外交」以來，長期處於不對稱的狀况，一般的看法是中國有求於美國，多於美國有求於中國。如今北京認為是時候扭轉這一關係，南海的情况堪足說明一切。本星期，中美將舉行戰略與經濟對話，討論內容包含南海以及人民幣匯價等議題，可視為9月中美峰會的前奏，中方的基調，相信不離美國可以在南海與中國共存，但不能再獨自控制南海。