東海南海風高浪急 白皮書闡戰略構思

<轉載自2015年6月1日 明報 社評>

中國政府公布長達9000字的《中國的軍事戰略》白皮書，除了提到「人不犯我，我不犯人；人若犯我，我必犯人」主導思想，並且在一些具體的戰略方針提出轉變的方向，譬如海軍由近海防禦轉為「近海防禦與遠海護衛型」結合，空軍則由國土防空型轉為「攻守兼備型」。這是一份傳播方向明顯朝向外國的文件，內容提及的具體軍事發展方向，可說是具有一定透明度，或者可以止息被指為中國軍事「欠缺透明度」的批評。近萬字長文值得細研，除了這是習近平黨政軍一把抓之後的國防白皮書，對於如何看待近期各方強硬語言及動作頻仍的東海及南海局勢，有參照價值。

公開闡述軍事策略 增透明度助解誤會

中國近年軍費有所增加，但論總量仍不及美國，而且必須指出的是，中國的綜合常規軍力仍然落後於美國及俄羅斯，即如近期飛越日本宮古海峽的「轟6」轟炸機為例，只是等於蘇聯1960年代水平，儘管電子系統及武器系統大幅改良，但與美國第一線轟炸機B2還差得遠，至於海軍在個別範疇可能連日本也比不上。作為一個海岸線綿長、陸上邊境線與多國接壤的國家，近年東海及南海主權紛爭爆發，增加軍費並不為奇。美國及日本多年來批評中國軍事發展欠缺透明度，因此炮製出「中國威脅論」，這次白皮書有所闡述，至於西方會否接受，並非中國能夠單方面控制的了。

白皮書有不少值得一讀之處，可以補充對近期中國軍事戰略發展的認識。海軍及空軍的戰略調整不算突出，內地軍事評論員認為海軍新戰略比胡錦濤年代保守，不過，應該注意的是白皮書「人不犯我，我不犯人；人若犯我，我必犯人」這16字，客觀上說明了今天中國政府對於戰爭或軍事衝突的取態﹕中國國防戰略仍是防守形態，要待敵人開第一槍始可還擊；對方沒有動作，中國就沒有相應的動作。不過，話中有話是把軍事鬥爭準備基點放在「打贏信息化局部戰爭」以及「突出海上軍事鬥爭的準備」這兩句。

「信息化局部戰爭」，可理解為一旦中國與其他國家發生軍事衝突或戰爭，依據白皮書闡述，將會是局限於某地區或地點的軍事行動，而不是全面大規模戰爭，更不會是內地一些人動輒所稱的「核子大戰」。至於「突出海上軍事鬥爭的準備」就絕對不能小覷，白皮書沒有提到陸上軍事鬥爭，卻提及海上軍事鬥爭的準備，說明中國政府把軍事衝突的可能集中於海上，這與近年東海及南海的緊張形勢相脗合，反映東海及南海如今局勢極為緊張，隨時有擦槍走火危險。

「海上軍事鬥爭準備」美國常挑釁易爆衝突

在東海及南海，中國的主要對手是日本及美國，南海情勢尤其令人擔心，中美海軍艦艇短兵相接，美國偵察機飛臨中國島礁，中方8次要求美軍離去，類似的軍事動作愈來愈多，尤其是美軍偵察機逼近飛行，極具挑釁意味，中國多番警告美國切勿逼近，令人易有衝突一觸即發的感覺。美國在希拉里擔任國務卿年代推行「重返亞洲」策略，南海一線氣氛由此拉緊，明年是美國大選年，美國對外政策受到國內政治影響，共和黨施壓之下，執政民主黨在外交事務上勢必更為強硬，南海火藥庫更加緊張。

南海是眾多國家及地區的航運生命線，既是日本韓國的石油進港路線，更是中國和台灣中東石油來源之路，航道暢通不是某些國家的期許專利，是區內所有國家的共同期望。儘管區內多個國家對南海島嶼主權各有聲稱，過去多年卻能保持關係穩定，原因是各國通過雙邊對話，管理危機而得到一定成果。可是當「重返亞洲」戰略推行後，南海各國之間的爭逐漸前，毋庸諱言是與美國角色有直接關係，這就把行之多年的南海潛規則推翻，使得這片海域上空充斥火藥味。中國這次在白皮書亮出底牌，顯示了對「海上軍事鬥爭」的準備，美國此刻應該深切思量，再是如此下去，南海過往多年的雙贏局面，恐怕不復存在，取而代之是劍拔弩張，從此濁浪滔天。

China's military strategy

THE CHINESE GOVERNMENT has released a white paper titled China's Military Strategy. A long document containing 9,000 characters, it mentions China's guiding principle that "we will not attack unless we are attacked, but we will certainly counterattack if attacked". It mentions also ways in which some specific strategic ideas have changed. For example, its navy will gradually shift its focus from "offshore waters defence" to "a combination of offshore waters defence and open seas protection", and its air force will endeavour to shift its focus from "territorial air defence" to "both defence and offence".

What one should pay attention to about the white paper is that the 16-character motto that means "we will not attack unless we are attacked, but we will certainly counterattack if attacked" clearly describes where the Chinese government now stands on wars and military conflicts. China's strategy of defence remains defensive in nature. It will not move until its enemy fires its first shot. It will only respond according as its adversary acts. Nevertheless, there is what is implicit in the statement that the basic point for preparation for military struggle (PMS) will be placed on "winning informationised local wars" and "highlighting maritime PMS".

One cannot take "highlighting maritime PMS" too seriously. The white paper mentions it though it is silent about land military struggle. That shows China focuses on the possibility of military conflicts occurring at sea. This is in keeping with the fact that things have been quite tense in the East China Sea and the South China Sea. That shows they are so tense that there is always real danger of "the inadvertent discharge of a gun igniting a military conflict".

China's chief adversaries in the East China Sea and the South China Sea are Japan and the US. The situation in the South China Sea is particularly worrying. Chinese and American warships have come quite close to one another. American reconnaissance aircraft have flown above Chinese islets and reefs. China has told them to leave eight times. More and more such military moves have been made. It is quite redolent of provocation for American reconnaissance aircraft to fly close to Chinese territory. As China has repeatedly warned the Americans against closing in on its territory, one is likely to feel a conflict is on the verge of breaking out. When Hillary Clinton was Secretary of State of the US, the Americans pursued their "returning to Asia" strategy. The atmosphere in the South China Sea has since been tense. The US will see a presidential election next year, and its foreign policy is now influenced by its domestic politics. Pressured by the Republicans, the Democrats (now ruling) cannot but become tougher in foreign affairs. Therefore, the situation will become tenser in the South China Sea, which is already a powder-keg.

Many countries' and regions' shipping lifelines lie across the South China Sea. Not only Japan's and South Korea's oil imports but also the mainland's and Taiwan's come across it. Though many countries in the region have laid claim to different islands there, they have had stable relations with one another because their efforts to manage crises through bilateral dialogue have borne fruit. However, since the US adopted its "returning to Asia" strategy, they have vied with one another to make headway there. There is no denying that this directly has to do with the role the US has assumed. That is why implicit rules that were followed for years are now flouted, and the air above the waters there now smells strongly of gunpowder. China has, by publishing the white paper, shown its hand. It has indicated its preparedness for maritime military struggle. The Americans must now give the issue deep thought. If things remain as they are, the win-win situation that has existed for years in the South China Sea will probably give way to one in which all would be at daggers drawn, and foamy billows will then always dash against the sky in the South China Sea.

東海南海風高浪急 白皮書闡戰略構思

中國政府公布長達9000字的《中國的軍事戰略》白皮書，除了提到「人不犯我，我不犯人；人若犯我，我必犯人」主導思想，並且在一些具體的戰略方針提出轉變的方向，譬如海軍由近海防禦轉為「近海防禦與遠海護衛型」結合，空軍則由國土防空型轉為「攻守兼備型」。

應該注意的是白皮書「人不犯我，我不犯人；人若犯我，我必犯人」這16字，客觀上說明了今天中國政府對於戰爭或軍事衝突的取態﹕中國國防戰略仍是防守形態，要待敵人開第一槍始可還擊；對方沒有動作，中國就沒有相應的動作。不過，話中有話是把軍事鬥爭準備基點放在「打贏信息化局部戰爭」以及「突出海上軍事鬥爭的準備」這兩句。

「突出海上軍事鬥爭的準備」絕對不能小覷，白皮書沒有提到陸上軍事鬥爭，卻提及海上軍事鬥爭的準備，說明中國政府把軍事衝突的可能集中於海上，這與近年東海及南海的緊張形勢相脗合，反映東海及南海如今局勢極為緊張，隨時有擦槍走火危險。

在東海及南海，中國的主要對手是日本及美國，南海情勢尤其令人擔心，中美海軍艦艇短兵相接，美國偵察機飛臨中國島礁，中方8次要求美軍離去，類似的軍事動作愈來愈多，尤其是美軍偵察機逼近飛行，極具挑釁意味，中國多番警告美國切勿逼近，令人易有衝突一觸即發的感覺。美國在希拉里擔任國務卿年代推行「重返亞洲」策略，南海一線氣氛由此拉緊，明年是美國大選年，美國對外政策受到國內政治影響，共和黨施壓之下，執政民主黨在外交事務上勢必更為強硬，南海火藥庫更加緊張。

南海是眾多國家及地區的航運生命線，既是日本韓國的石油進港路線，更是中國和台灣石油來源之路。儘管區內多個國家對南海島嶼主權各有聲稱，過去多年卻能保持關係穩定，原因是各國通過雙邊對話，管理危機而得到一定成果。可是當「重返亞洲」戰略推行後，南海各國之間的爭逐漸前，毋庸諱言是與美國角色有直接關係，這就把行之多年的南海潛規則推翻，使得這片海域上空充斥火藥味。中國這次在白皮書亮出底牌，顯示了對「海上軍事鬥爭」的準備，美國此刻應該深切思量，再是如此下去，南海過往多年的雙贏局面，恐怕不復存在，取而代之是劍拔弩張，從此濁浪滔天。