中央與反對派決戰？ 香港情勢緣何至此

<轉載自2015年11月6日 明報 社評>

習近平與馬英九明日在新加坡的會面，無疑是承載着當年國共內戰、隔岸分治的鬥爭歷史；現在兩岸理論上還處於敵對狀態，而這對老對手目前的實權人物要坐下來談「一個中國」事務，無論達至什麼成果，都是具備里程碑意義的大事。反觀香港，歷來與中央不存在敵我鬥爭，現實上中央已經全面掌控香港，不過此際有說法指香港事務發展至「中央與香港的衆多反對勢力對決、決戰或攤牌之局」；設若說法符合實情，則中央與香港的關係弄至劍拔弩張，使人唏噓不已。

國共世仇也可會面 中央香港非鬥不可？

民進黨主席蔡英文曾經高調批評「習馬會」，但是她昨日轉口風，說當選總統後並不排除「蔡習會」。蔡英文調整取態，主要是考慮到選情。據台灣陸委會的民意調查，支持雙方以領導人互稱的會面高達76.6%；蔡英文的兩岸政策一直備受質疑，若她抗拒與大陸領導人會面，有可能流失中間選民。蔡英文主張台獨，迫使她在兩岸事務向中間調整的，主要是台灣民衆在兩岸關係的欲求，蔡英文只能順勢而行。台灣民衆知道只要大陸和台灣坐下來談，兩岸情勢就不會太差，若雙邊溝通互動渠道蔽塞，然後各自叫板，則兩岸局勢就不妙了。陳水扁執政後期，兩岸就是處於這種景况。

反觀香港，近年與中央關係有倒退迹象，特別是就2017年普選特首的安排，中央與反對派進行了一場短兵相接的對抗。較早前，港澳辦官員曾來港與民主黨會晤，人們憧憬中央恢復與民主派溝通，重建互信，為香港管治困局找到出路。不過，類似接觸好像戛然而止，未見持續進行。近日，全國港澳研究會副會長劉兆佳在新書描述內地與香港的關係和中央處理香港事務的取態，使人對香港事態感到憂慮。

劉兆佳指出，中央與反對派因為普選爭議、政改失敗而勢成水火，嚴重缺乏互相尊重與互信，期望協商來解決對「一國兩制」的分歧已是不切實際；他說「現在是一個中央與香港的衆多反對勢力『對決』、『決戰』或『攤牌』之局」。劉兆佳認為根本沒有「中間路線」或「第三條道路」可言，主要是與中央對話合作還是對抗鬥爭的選擇。若劉兆佳的描述確切反映中央的立場和將訴諸的行動，則對港政策就顯得殺氣騰騰了。

政改失敗，是否等於中央與民主派再沒有對話空間？事實並非如此。檢視政改爭議，泛民陣營固然有人提出激進主張和訴求，更多政黨與學者都提出了被認為反映中間溫和大多數訴求的方案，只是中央未予回應而已。再就民主派爭取普選而言，由1988年爭取立法會直選議席開始，與中央的立場取態都不同，但是歷年大大小小政制爭議，中央與民主派的扞格，都只屬於人民內部矛盾，唯獨特首普選爭議上升到敵我矛盾層次。不過，涉及的只是少數人，大多數民主派與港人都未視政改為與中央鬥爭至你死我活的議題。

香港事務在中國整體格局是一個獨特個案。當年，中央提出一國兩制處理香港的獨特性，保留香港與大陸的制度之異；最重要的是歷來中央都以內部矛盾體待香港的制度爭議，包括政改。不過，劉兆佳提到就「一國兩制」的分歧，中央將與反對勢力對決、決戰和攤牌；若屬實，則中央將採取的手段就不再和風細雨，而是急風驚雷的敵我鬥爭了。劉兆佳在書中形容現在處於關鍵和嚴峻時刻，他相信最終取勝的必然是中央。

劉兆佳研究香港問題數十年，曾任中央政策組首席顧問逾10年，參與管治香港，他對香港問題和事務的掌握、了解和研判早獲肯定，近年參與全國港澳研究會的工作，相信更掌握中央對港政策的信息。現在劉兆佳描述將發生的中央與反對勢力互動，完全超逾30多年來港人就香港問題的經驗範圍；敵我鬥爭若爆發，香港會是怎樣的局面，就算如劉兆佳預測中央必勝，則屆時「一國兩制」會是怎樣的景况、鬥爭之後香港人心都回歸了？這些都是無法使人釋然的問題。

港人冀求溝通對話 中央應顯大度胸懷

香港反對派、反對勢力，爭的是兩制之異，所使用手段歷來理性溫和。近年出現一些激進、激烈手段，只是極少數人的嘩衆取寵操作，主流社會都不認同；若為這小撮人的激越而把港人捲入鬥爭之中，絕不公平，而且這種鬥爭極可能把一些溫和派推向對立面，製造更多「敵人」。所謂勝負得失，需要更深入和仔細的思考。另外，重要的是大多數港人都認為中央與反對派應該保持溝通對話，化解矛盾，重建互信。

當年血戰過的共產黨和國民黨，現在的領導人可以會面商討國事；香港的反對派、反對勢力與中央根本就無血海深仇。當年廖承志寫信給蔣經國，以「渡盡劫波兄弟在，相逢一笑泯恩仇」，降低了兩岸敵意；今日中央對待香港，宜應以「千里修書只為牆，讓他三尺又何妨」的胸懷，化解內地與香港的矛盾，而非埋首鬥爭。

The central government and the pan-democrats

A MEETING between Xi Jinping and Ma Ying-jeou is to take place tomorrow (November 7) in Singapore. Without a shadow of a doubt, the meeting will remind us of the full history of the antagonism between two sworn enemies - the Communist Party of China (CPC) and the Kuomintang (KMT), which were the two sides of a civil war and which are leading their respective governments across the Taiwan Strait.

Having made an explicit criticism of the meeting, Tsai Ing-wen, the DPP Chairwoman, changed her stance yesterday, saying that she would not rule out meeting with Xi after her swearing-in as Taiwanese president. Tsai's fine-tuning of her stance was made in light of the developments of the presidential race. According to an opinion poll conducted by the Mainland Affairs Council, as many as 76.6% of the respondents support the holding of a meeting in which both sides address each other as the "leader" of their respective governments. There has been general skepticism over Tsai's cross-strait policy. Apparently, if she refuses to meet with the leader of the mainland, she might lose the support of the moderates. It is the Taiwanese people's longing for improvements of cross-strait relations that has brought the policy of Tsai, a pro-independence politician, nearer to the centre. For she has no choice but to take note of the tide of public opinion. The Taiwanese people know that, cross-strait relations will be good enough if the two sides are at the negotiating table. If the channels of communication are blocked and both sides resort to raising challenges to each other, it will be a bad thing for the cross-strait situation. That was exactly what happened towards the end of Chen Shui-bian's presidency.

As for Hong Kong, its relations with the central government seem to be worsening. This has been particularly so since the central government came into direct conflict with Hong Kong's opposition over the election of the Chief Executive (CE) in the year 2017. Following Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office officials' Hong Kong visit and their meeting with the Democratic Party, Hong Kong people were full of expectation that the central government would resume communication with the pan-democrats, and that both sides would rebuild mutual trust and find a way out of Hong Kong's political dilemma. Now it seems that such interactions have stopped abruptly and no longer exist. Recently, Lau Siu-kai, vice-president of the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macau Studies, describes in his new book the relationship between the mainland and Hong Kong, as well as the central government's attitude towards Hong Kong affairs. His description is giving cause for worry.

However, is it true that the last round's unsuccessful constitutional reform has left no room for dialogue between the central government and the pan-democrats? We do not think so. There were, of course, radical proposals and demands put forward by democrats during the arguments over constitutional reform. There were, however, even more proposals proposed by political parties and scholars that were thought to be representative of the wishes of the moderates, who make up the majority of society. But the central government did not respond to the proposals. Furthermore, the democrats have been at loggerheads with the central government, over universal suffrage, ever since they demanded that lawmakers be returned by direct election in the 1988 Legislative Council elections. But over the years, the disagreements about issues big and small between the central government and the democrats were just "conflicts among the people". It was during the arguments over the election of the CE by universal suffrage that both sides came into "a conflict between enemies". That said, the conflict involves only a handful of democrats. The majority of the democrats, as well as the majority of Hong Kong people, have not viewed the political reform as an issue that deserves a fight that must end with the opposite side's ultimate destruction.

The CPC and KMT were enemies in a war that resulted in massive bloodshed. Their incumbent leaders, however, are to meet face to face and discuss national issues. As for the opposition in Hong Kong and the central government, there is no such hatred between them that must lead to bloodshed. In a letter to Chiang Ching-kuo, Liao Chengzhi wrote that, "Despite the eventful past, our brotherhood will remain. Our grudges will be forgotten when we meet and smile." This effectively reduced the sense of animosity across the strait. The central government should bear in mind these lines of a Chinese poem: "A thousand li this letter's travelled, its subject being nothing but a wall. We should not feel upset, should we? It's just their house being close to ours by three chi more." The central government should have the magnanimity displayed in the poem and attempt to resolve the conflicts between the mainland and Hong Kong. What it should not do is engage in political struggles.

中央與反對派決戰？ 香港情勢緣何至此

習近平與馬英九明日（7日）在新加坡的會面，無疑是承載着當年國共內戰、隔岸分治的鬥爭歷史。

民進黨主席蔡英文曾經高調批評「習馬會」，但是她昨日轉口風，說當選總統後並不排除「蔡習會」。蔡英文調整取態，主要是考慮到選情。據台灣陸委會的民意調查，支持雙方以領導人互稱的會面高達76.6%；蔡英文的兩岸政策一直備受質疑，若她抗拒與大陸領導人會面，有可能流失中間選民。蔡英文主張台獨，迫使她在兩岸事務向中間調整的，主要是台灣民衆在兩岸關係的欲求，蔡英文只能順勢而行。台灣民衆知道只要大陸和台灣坐下來談，兩岸情勢就不會太差，若雙邊溝通互動渠道蔽塞，然後各自叫板，則兩岸局勢就不妙了。陳水扁執政後期，兩岸就是處於這種景况。

反觀香港，近年與中央關係有倒退迹象，特別是就2017年普選特首的安排，中央與反對派進行了一場短兵相接的對抗。較早前，港澳辦官員曾來港與民主黨會晤，人們憧憬中央恢復與民主派溝通，重建互信，為香港管治困局找到出路。不過，類似接觸好像戛然而止，未見持續進行。近日，全國港澳研究會副會長劉兆佳在新書描述內地與香港的關係和中央處理香港事務的取態，使人對香港事態感到憂慮。

政改失敗，是否等於中央與民主派再沒有對話空間？事實並非如此。檢視政改爭議，泛民陣營固然有人提出激進主張和訴求，更多政黨與學者都提出了被認為反映中間溫和大多數訴求的方案，只是中央未予回應而已。再就民主派爭取普選而言，由1988年爭取立法會直選議席開始，與中央的立場取態都不同，但是歷年大大小小政制爭議，中央與民主派的扞格，都只屬於人民內部矛盾，唯獨特首普選爭議上升到敵我矛盾層次。不過，涉及的只是少數人，大多數民主派與港人都未視政改為與中央鬥爭至你死我活的議題。

當年血戰過的共產黨和國民黨，現在的領導人可以會面商討國事；香港的反對派、反對勢力與中央根本就無血海深仇。當年廖承志寫信給蔣經國，以「渡盡劫波兄弟在，相逢一笑泯恩仇」，降低了兩岸敵意；今日中央對待香港，宜應以「千里修書只為牆，讓他三尺又何妨」的胸懷，化解內地與香港的矛盾，而非埋首鬥爭。