兩岸關係台大選焦點 和平共處藍綠應務實

<轉載自2015年5月4日 明報 社評>

目前正在大陸的國民黨主席朱立倫，按行程今天將與中共總書記習近平會面。與10年前訪北京與時任中共總書記胡錦濤歷史性握手的連戰不一樣，朱立倫是國民黨遷台之後的新生代，國共兩黨領導人如何互動，值得細緻觀察。這裏必須一提的是，台灣總統大選將於明年1月舉行，屈指一數只是8個月之後的事，以習近平上台之後顯示的強勢，如何體待台灣執政黨主席以及與台灣來客的對談，對台灣選情或有影響，因此朱立倫這次大陸行意義重大，即在於此。

兩岸關係7年平和 外交熱戰偃旗息鼓

兩岸過去7年關係平和，政黨輪替國民黨上台，陳水扁年代的激進路線不再是執政主流，取而代之是兩岸往還頻繁，尤其是開放大陸旅客到訪，關係更上一層樓。在良好氛圍下，兩岸關係孕育出過去50年罕見的形態，持續多年外交戰偃旗息鼓，更有一種說法是，一些國家要求與北京建交而與台灣斷交，也被中共婉拒，云云。姑勿論事實是否如此，五六十年代大軍對峙的台海，確實在這7年水波不興。

上周三，馬英九與台灣行政院大陸委員會談話時，意有所指提出兩岸於1992年的「九二共識」是「兩廂情願」，稱在「一個中國」問題，大陸與台灣找到雙方都可以接受的基礎，所以「九二共識」不是「一廂情願」。「九二共識」是1992年汪辜會談結晶，重點在於兩岸都同意「一個中國」大原則，如何理解則各自表述。兩岸間的多年糾結由此得到釋放，在「一個中國」之下各有解釋，和而不同，帶來台海的難得安寧。馬英九在朱立倫出發到大陸前夕重提「九二共識」，可以理解為向中共表明國民黨「一個中國」的立場，為國共高層會面做好鋪墊，更是隔空回應今年3月「兩會」期間習近平的只要「九二共識」不變，對台政策不動搖的講話。事實上，朱立倫昨天在上海舉辦的第十屆兩岸經貿文化論壇上就表示，國民黨將在「九二共識」基礎上持續推動兩岸關係向前發展。

不過，最近兩年，兩岸關係出現微妙變化，服貿協議在立法院胎死腹中，說明台灣社會對兩岸關係的取態並非完全擁抱大陸，亦非經過馬英九執政之後由綠變回深藍。兩地隔海對峙半世紀，社會與民主發展步伐迥異，加上意識形態隔閡，若說兩岸關係從此步向坦途，是不符實際情况。不過，如今的政治現實是中共實力凌駕台灣，台灣如何與中共同舞，在執行上需要大智慧，既要向寶島2000萬人民交代，也要避免中共擔憂的「台獨」成為主流。馬英九的「兩廂情願」之語，一邊是對島內交代，意指這是台灣為主的立場，也向中共表達「一個中國」的取態不變。

明年台灣總統大選，在野民進黨決定由蔡英文上陣，挑戰國民黨政權。蔡英文在兩岸事務態度成為焦點，一旦她勝出大選，未來兩岸關係如何，成為台海風雲關鍵。曾與李登輝關係密切的蔡英文，2012年大選時曾稱兩岸關係並不存在「九二共識」，駸駸然有推翻共識的可能，這亦成為中共的擔憂原因。因此，習近平3月在「兩會」期間的講話，明顯是向台灣朝野表達中共立場，他稱中共始終把「九二共識」列為與台灣當局以及各政黨展開交往的基礎和條件。明乎此，中共把「九二共識」視為底線，承認的，一切好談；不承認的，以後不要說我沒有把話說在前頭。不過，蔡英文在回應馬英九「兩廂情願」論時，仍然沒提「九二共識」，只是強調維持現狀就是維持台灣和平、兩岸穩定發展。她還留下一句話，說馬英九應檢討7年來兩岸政策的真正問題，是不依循民主程序，引起人們不滿。蔡英文如此回應，是不是暗喻或會在選戰打出所謂「民意牌」，對未來兩岸關係茲事體大，值得關切。

蔡英文避談九二共識 選戰議題台海易翻波

兩岸關係60年來經歷生死相搏的「反攻大陸」與「我們一定要解放台灣」年代，海空戰鬥時有發生，金門更曾捱過解放軍數十萬發炮彈，老一輩對此必不忘記。冷戰結束，雙方摸索重建聯繫的民間交往，1990年代初汪辜會談定下主調，歷盡萬水千山走到今天，應該倍加珍惜得來不易的和平。因此，縱是播弄族群衝突的陳水扁，亦不敢明目張膽提出「台獨」主張，說明客觀環境不容許，強推「台獨」必令台海緊張。

兩岸近年聚焦經貿與人民往來，少談主義多講實務，是為當前台海和平的主軸，但蔡英文對「九二共識」立場刻意模糊，將是台海未來一股不穩定因素。「九二共識」議題勢將是台灣選戰議題，若處理欠佳，台海再起陰霾，絕非區內之福。

KMT and DPP should be pragmatic

KUOMINTANG (KMT) chairman Eric Chu, who is now on the mainland, is scheduled to meet general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Xi Jinping today (May 4). Unlike Lien Chan, who had a historic handshake with Hu Jintao (then CPC general secretary) ten years ago in Beijing, Chu was born in Taiwan after the KMT had moved to the island. It merits minute observation how the KMT leader and the CPC leader interact with one another.

Last Wednesday, when he talked to members of the Mainland Affairs Council of Taiwan's Executive Yuan, Ma Ying-jeou said significantly the consensus concluded between the two sides of the strait in 1992 was what both sides wanted, adding that Taiwan and the mainland had found a basis for dealing with the "one China" issue acceptable to both sides. In fact, yesterday (May 3) in Shanghai, Chu said at the 10th Cross-strait Economic, Trade and Culture Forum that the KMT would continue to seek to push cross-strait relations forward on the basis of the 1992 consensus.

Taiwan is to see a presidential election next year. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP, now in the wilderness) has decided to field Tsai Ing-wen to challenge the KMT (now in power). It has become a focus where she stands on matters concerning cross-strait relations. If she wins the presidential election, what may arise in the Taiwan Strait will hinge on how cross-strait relations will then fare. During the 2012 presidential election, Tsai, who once had close ties with Lee Teng-hui, declared what was called the 1992 consensus did not exist. There is apparently some possibility of the 1992 consensus being repudiated, which worries the CPC. Therefore, at the sessions of the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference that took place last March, Xi declared in his speeches the CPC's position, saying it always regarded the 1992 consensus as a basis and a condition for having dealings with the authorities and political parties of Taiwan. It seems clear that the CPC considers the 1992 consensus to be the bottom line. Accept it, all will be negotiable. If not, don't ever say, "You should have told us so!" However, in commenting on Ma's idea of what both sides want, Tsai has omitted to mention the 1992 consensus. She has stressed that to maintain the status quo is to keep Taiwan at peace and allow both sides of the strait to develop steadily. She has also said Ma should look at what has actually troubled Taiwan's cross-strait policy over the past seven years, adding that it is the authorities' failure to follow democratic procedures that has aroused resentment. Has she hinted by making such a response that she will deal out what is called "public opinion cards"? That is worth attention as it may have important bearing on cross-strait relations.

Much has taken place between the two sides of the strait over the past six decades. When "counterattack the mainland" and "we must liberate Taiwan" were yelled, they had life-and-death struggles, and sea and air conflicts continually happened between them. Those of the older generation can never forget Kinmen has received from the People's Liberation Army hundreds of thousands of artillery shells. After the cold war had ended, the two sides began to find ways to establish non-government ties. In the 1990s, the keynote was set at the Wang-Koo summit. It is through overcoming myriad difficulties that they have come to where they are now. They should therefore be doubly jealous of the hard-won peace.

The two sides of the strait have in recent years focused on trade, economic affairs and non-government dealings. They have talked about practical matters rather than isms. Such an attitude serves to underpin peace in the Taiwan Strait. However, Tsai's deliberate attempts to blur her position on the 1992 consensus may lead to instability in the Taiwan Strait. The 1992 consensus will inevitably be at issue in the presidential election in Taiwan. If that is not satisfactorily handled, another storm may rise in the Taiwan Strait. That would not do the region any good.

兩岸關係台大選焦點 和平共處藍綠應務實

目前正在大陸的國民黨主席朱立倫，按行程今天將與中共總書記習近平會面。與10年前訪北京與時任中共總書記胡錦濤歷史性握手的連戰不一樣，朱立倫是國民黨遷台之後的新生代，國共兩黨領導人如何互動，值得細緻觀察。

上周三，馬英九與台灣行政院大陸委員會談話時，意有所指提出兩岸於1992年的「九二共識」是「兩廂情願」，稱在「一個中國」問題，大陸與台灣找到雙方都可以接受的基礎。事實上，朱立倫昨天在上海舉辦的第十屆兩岸經貿文化論壇上就表示，國民黨將在「九二共識」基礎上持續推動兩岸關係向前發展。

明年台灣總統大選，在野民進黨決定由蔡英文上陣，挑戰國民黨政權。蔡英文在兩岸事務態度成為焦點，一旦她勝出大選，未來兩岸關係如何，成為台海風雲關鍵。曾與李登輝關係密切的蔡英文，2012年大選時曾稱兩岸關係並不存在「九二共識」，駸駸然有推翻共識的可能，這亦成為中共的擔憂原因。因此，習近平3月在「兩會」期間的講話，明顯是表達中共立場，他稱中共始終把「九二共識」列為與台灣當局以及各政黨展開交往的基礎和條件。明乎此，中共把「九二共識」視為底線，承認的，一切好談；不承認的，以後不要說我沒有把話說在前頭。不過，蔡英文在回應馬英九「兩廂情願」論時，仍然沒提「九二共識」，只是強調維持現狀就是維持台灣和平、兩岸穩定發展。她還留下一句話，說馬英九應檢討7年來兩岸政策的真正問題，是不依循民主程序，引起人們不滿。蔡英文如此回應，是不是暗喻或會在選戰打出所謂「民意牌」，對未來兩岸關係茲事體大，值得關切。

兩岸關係60年來經歷生死相搏的「反攻大陸」與「我們一定要解放台灣」年代，海空戰鬥時有發生，金門更曾捱過解放軍數十萬發炮彈，老一輩對此必不忘記。冷戰結束，雙方摸索重建聯繫的民間交往，1990年代初汪辜會談定下主調，歷盡萬水千山走到今天，應該倍加珍惜得來不易的和平。

兩岸近年聚焦經貿與人民往來，少談主義多講實務，是為當前台海和平的主軸，但蔡英文對「九二共識」立場刻意模糊，將是台海未來一股不穩定因素。「九二共識」議題勢將是台灣選戰議題，若處理欠佳，台海再起陰霾，絕非區內之福。