<轉載自2016年11月7日 明報 社評>
上周台海大事，是民進黨執政、兩岸關係重入冷交鋒局面後，國共平台再開張，中共與國民黨兩黨領袖習近平、洪秀柱首度會面。這次會面，除台灣變天背景外，有許多特別的第一次，受到各方包括國際關注，但更值得詳細拆解的，是今次習洪會泄露出的三個「天機」。
習近平給足洪秀柱面子 正面回應三目的一迴避
說到習洪會的第一次，就台灣方面而言有二，一是台灣變天後國共兩黨平台首度開張；一是洪秀柱就任國民黨主席後首次擔綱國共峰會。就大陸方面而言也有二，一是習馬會後一年習近平首次向台灣闡釋其兩岸政策；一是中共十八屆六中全會後，習近平首次以中共的核心之尊出席國共會談，其講話氣勢與昔大不同。
但必須看到，這是一次「對等而不對稱」的兩黨會。說對等，是中共方面對洪秀柱到訪給足面子，從迎送程序、會見安排等，跟足過往數度國共峰會安排，對國民黨行前定下的所謂「三個目的、一個迴避」基調，包括希望與中共達成「積極探討和平協議」共識、希望強化國共平台作為兩岸「第二管道」、希望為台灣爭取有「實質意義」國際空間等三個目的，以及暫避「一中各表」，北京都有柔軟回應。
人們看到，習近平正面甚至可說是積極回應探討和平協議，說這是中共一貫主張；中共安排海協會長陳德銘取代國務委員楊潔篪，加入會晤團隊，來預示國共平台未來可作兩岸實務溝通；即使敏感的國際空間問題，習近平也以再行研究作回應，而非一口回絕。
面子給足，不光是客氣，也透出中共方面不希望國民黨內亂下去，而希望其在台灣島內政治中，再成有效的制衡力量，同時更希望在兩岸官方溝通實質停擺下，國民黨能在兩岸關係上繼續發揮正向推動作用。
習洪會之後，台灣方面爭論議題大致有三，一是兩岸之間，會否如國共論壇中大陸專家提的由「冷對抗」走向「熱對抗」危險？二是國民黨提出推動和平協議，能否走向實質討論和協商？三是習近平對民進黨是軟了還是硬了？對蔡英文兩岸政策是默認還是反對？
這三方面爭議，台灣朝野與民間各執一詞，在所必然，然而中共過去30年來都有「總書記管對台政策」的體制安排，而習近平新提對台「習六點」，以及他在習洪會的閉門談話，若認真拆解之後，三個議題都有答案，可說習近平在今次「習洪會」 中，泄露出他的對台政策「天機」。
有人認定，習洪會談的都是老問題，習近平、洪秀柱兩人都未揭櫫新議題，說出新口徑；其實不然。習近平今次談話，是老話題中有新思路、新說法，難怪國務院台辦主任張志軍說，習近平談話「對新形勢下推動兩岸關係發展具有重要指引作用」。
習六點透露對台新天機 和平發展反獨推進融合
習近平泄露的對台新天機，歸納起來最重要的有三點。首先一點，就是「一個軌道」。習近平今次談話，數度提到「和平發展」，人人都以為是老生常談，但國台辦主任張志軍已經明確表示，習近平強調新形勢下兩岸關係的「主張」，是「努力維護和推進兩岸關係和平發展」。而這是習近平「在深刻總結兩岸關係發展經驗、準確把握兩岸民意脈動基礎上提出的」。當然，要走這一個軌道基礎就是「九二共識」。
習近平透露的第二個對台新天機，叫「一條底線」，這條底線就是反獨。習近平這回用非常直白的話說出來，叫「大陸13億人不會答應台獨，若共產黨不處理台獨，會被中國人民推翻」。也許有人認為，這也是「老話新說」，但習近平講這段話時，還配上了「新話新說」，那是很多人沒拆出內涵的話，習說的是若台灣宣布獨立，中共會讓「其他國際勢力也無法介入兩岸」。這話習近平不能說得更直白了，拆解來看，就是一旦兩岸因台獨而出現衝突，今天的美國已不再做得了台獨的保護傘。這就叫「硬的更硬」。
習近平透出的第三大對台新天機，可稱作「一個思路」。「習六點」半數以上是「軟的更軟」，在「推進兩岸經濟社會融合發展」、「增進兩岸同胞福祉」等綱目下，都有新內容。如果他說的「我們將研究出台相關政策措施，為台灣同胞在大陸學習、就業、創業、生活提供更多便利」，還有一點稍嫌籠統，則「順應經濟發展規律，創新方式」、「支持兩岸企業合作創新、共創品牌、共拓市場」、「擴大基層民眾參與面和獲益面」、「為兩岸青少年教育、成長營造良好環境，鼓勵他們早接觸、多交往，增進親情」等，都包含新的政策措施立足點。而他談話時脫稿而說的，「要以辦實事、做好事的原則推動」，「做到能獲得諾貝爾和平獎水準」，更算是天機中的天機了。
New
divine intentions
LAST
WEEK saw an event that has grave bearings on cross-strait relations — the first
meeting between Xi Jinping and Hung Hsiu-chu, who respectively head the
Communist Party of China (CPC) and the Kuomintang (KMT).
The
first Xi-Hung meeting is of significance to Taiwan in two respects. First, when
it took place, the CPC-KMT platform opened for the first time after Taiwan had
seen a change of government, and Hung attended a CPC-KMT summit for the first
time after she had become chairperson of the KMT. It is important to the
mainland also in two respects. First, it was the first time Xi had explained to
Taiwan his cross-strait policy since a Xi-Ma meeting had taken place (a year
ago). Moreover, Xi attended KMT-CPC talks for the first time in his lofty
capacity as the core of the CPC in the wake of the 6th plenum of the 18th
Central Committee of the CPC and therefore spoke with very different mettle
than he had done.
Three
of the "divine intentions" about Taiwan which Xi has divulged are
more important than any of the others. The first is "one track". In
his speech, Xi mentioned several times "peaceful development". All
think that is a platitude. However, Director of the Taiwan Affairs Office of
the State Council Zhang Zhijun has made it clear that the proposition which
bears on cross-strait relations in the new situation and on which Xi places
emphasis is that "efforts should be made to safeguard and promote the
peaceful development of cross-strait relations". This is what Xi has put
forward "on the basis of what has resulted from his deep-going summing-up
of the way cross-strait relations have developed and his accurate apprehension
of pulses of public sentiment on the two sides of the Taiwan Strait". The
"track" is of course founded on the "1992 consensus".
The
second "divine intention" Xi has divulged is called "the minimum
requirement", which is "combating separatism". Xi put it very
bluntly. He said, "None of the 1.3 billion people on the mainland would
say yes to Taiwan's independence. The Communist Party would get overthrown by
the people of China if it failed to deal with this matter." Some may say
that is an "old position newly stated". However, when Xi said that,
he added a new position. That is a "new position newly stated". This
is a point of which few can glean the intension. What he meant to say is that,
if Taiwan proclaims independence, the CPC "will make it impossible for any
other power in the world to intervene in what may ensue in the Taiwan
Strait". Xi could not have put it more clearly. The meaning behind that
remark is that the US can no longer shield Taiwan separatists. One may say the
mainland is now "even tougher" than it has been where it should be
tough.
The
third new divine intention about Taiwan Xi has divulged may be called "one
line of thought". More than a half of the "Xi six points" are
"even softer than soft". There are new things under such headings as
"fostering cross-strait economic-socio integration and development"
and "improving the well-being of compatriots on the two sides of
Strait". He said, "We will come up with and bring out policies and
measures with a view to making it more convenient for Taiwan compatriots to go
to school, work, start businesses and live on the mainland." That may be
on the general side. However, he has also mentioned "creating new ways
along the laws of economic development", "supporting cooperation
between businesses on the two sides that work together to innovate, bring out
new brands or tap markets" and "enlarging the aspects in which
grass-roots people can participate and from which they can benefit" and
"bringing about a good environment in which young people on the two sides
will receive education and grow up and encouraging them to come into contact
with one another early so that their attachment to one another may grow".
All such expressions contain that on which new policy measures can be based.
When Xi made his speech, he said extempore, "We ought to be driven with
the principle of doing real things and good turns and go to such length that we
may receive a Nobel Peace Prize." That, one may say, is the divinest of
intentions.
習洪會熱後 拆解新天機
上周台海大事是中共與國民黨兩黨領袖習近平、洪秀柱首度會面。
說到習洪會的第一次，就台灣方面而言有二，一是台灣變天後國共兩黨平台首度開張；一是洪秀柱就任國民黨主席後首次擔綱國共峰會。就大陸方面而言也有二，一是習馬會後一年習近平首次向台灣闡釋其兩岸政策；一是中共十八屆六中全會後，習近平首次以中共的核心之尊出席國共會談，其講話氣勢與昔大不同。
習近平泄露的對台新天機，歸納起來最重要的有三點。首先一點，就是「一個軌道」。習近平今次談話，數度提到「和平發展」，人人都以為是老生常談，但國台辦主任張志軍已經明確表示，習近平強調新形勢下兩岸關係的「主張」，是「努力維護和推進兩岸關係和平發展」。而這是習近平「在深刻總結兩岸關係發展經驗、準確把握兩岸民意脈動基礎上提出的」。當然，要走這一個軌道基礎就是「九二共識」。
習近平透露的第二個對台新天機，叫「一條底線」，這條底線就是反獨。習近平這回用非常直白的話說出來，叫「大陸13億人不會答應台獨，若共產黨不處理台獨，會被中國人民推翻」。也許有人認為，這也是「老話新說」，但習近平講這段話時，還配上了「新話新說」，那是很多人沒拆出內涵的話，習說的是若台灣宣布獨立，中共會讓「其他國際勢力也無法介入兩岸」。這話習近平不能說得更直白了，拆解來看，就是今天的美國已不再做得了台獨的保護傘。這就叫「硬的更硬」。
習近平透出的第三大對台新天機，可稱作「一個思路」。「習六點」半數以上是「軟的更軟」，在「推進兩岸經濟社會融合發展」、「增進兩岸同胞福祉」等綱目下，都有新內容。如果他說的「我們將研究出台相關政策措施，為台灣同胞在大陸學習、就業、創業、生活提供更多便利」，還有一點稍嫌籠統，則「順應經濟發展規律，創新方式」、「支持兩岸企業合作創新、共創品牌、共拓市場」、「擴大基層民眾參與面和獲益面」、「為兩岸青少年教育、成長營造良好環境，鼓勵他們早接觸、多交往，增進親情」等，都包含新的政策措施立足點。而他談話時脫稿而說的，「要以辦實事、做好事的原則推動」，「做到能獲得諾貝爾和平獎水準」，更算是天機中的天機了。
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