兩岸大變局 習劃紅線蔡走曲線

<轉載自2016年3月21日 明報 社評>

今年的人大政協「兩會」，中央高層接連表態、會後立即行動、未來將持續震動的，就是因政黨輪替重現的台灣問題。針對兩岸關係大變局，北京習近平已劃明紅線，台灣蔡英文則有意暗走曲線。

上周末，外交部突通知駐京記者有重大宣布，記者趕去苦等後，活動又告取消。其後以新聞稿和央視報道形式，宣布與非洲岡比亞恢復外交關係。岡比亞早兩年與台灣斷交後，因兩岸「外交休兵」，北京未與其復交。今次突然復交，震撼台灣，被認為是對台北的重大警示。

重啟「一中三段論」中岡復交意義重大

警示之外，中岡復交的另一重大意義，即重啟「一中三段論」。按中岡復交公報的表述，「世界上只有一個中國，中華人民共和國政府是代表全中國的唯一合法政府，台灣是中國領土不可分割的一部分」。這種「一中三段論」近年已少用，現在重新祭出，客觀上對蔡英文是敲響警鐘，主觀上則在為兩岸關係劃出國際紅線。

台灣大選，不僅蔡英文終獲總統之位，民進黨也在立委選舉獲得多數席次，又獲取絕大多數縣市執政權。台灣上下「一片綠」，對北京來說，今次變局比當年陳水扁當選總統，對兩岸關係衝擊更大。

面對大變局和可能的大衝擊，北京研判兩岸關係將現3種走向，一是大陸釋出善意，民進黨作響應，兩岸維持和平發展；二是大陸對台方針不變，民進黨不願調整兩岸基調，政冷經熱、官冷民熱；三是蔡英文走上「各種形式的台獨」之路，兩岸間「地動山搖」。在此背景下，北京決定精心準備，兩會期間習近平親自出馬，埋下兩岸關係變局的「定海神針」，也為蔡英文和民進黨劃出紅線。

習近平提對台「新三論」防民進黨盲目樂觀誤判

據悉，上海曾以有萬家台商、30萬台灣人居住、高度關切為由，寫報告要求習近平到上海團談談兩岸關係。習近平上海團談話提出對台「新三論」，一是「命運共同體論」，強調兩岸同胞是「命運與共的骨肉兄弟」、「血濃於水的一家人」；二是「九二共識政治基礎論」，強調「九二共識」，明確界定兩岸關係性質，是確保兩岸關係和平發展的關鍵；三是「遏止台獨論」，即堅決遏制任何形式的台獨分裂行徑，維護國家主權和領土完整。

作為對紅線的呼應，俞正聲的政協工作報告、李克強的政府工作報告、張德江的人大工作報告及總理記者會四大環節，都有對台警示，其中《政府工作報告》首次提出「維護國家主權和領土完整」，政協閉幕的政治決議亦寫明「反對任何形式的台獨」。

習近平如此高調劃出紅線，是因蔡英文勝選後的「維持現狀」說，以及民進黨獲完全執政後有「大陸靠過來」說，北京擔心蔡英文上台後，會走「新台獨路線」。

台灣大選後，蔡英文和民進黨志滿意得。民進黨內樂觀派認為大陸會對新政府釋出善意，說「只要勝選，大陸就會靠過來」，而外長王毅在美國順嘴說了個「憲法說」，令台灣相信中共將要妥協，將有「民共談判」和「蔡習會」。黨內的悲觀派，則挾「新民意」和「完全執政」兩張牌，再加上美日牌，力推蔡英文走向強硬。

蔡英文曲線「兩國論」北京不接受強硬應對

蔡英文勝選後，為未來執政鋪路而營造兩岸政策溫和化。選前她先提「維持現狀」論，又提「中華民國憲政秩序」說。後來又說「認同當年雙方秉持相互諒解的精神」。勝選後，蔡英文說會以「1992年兩岸兩會會談的歷史事實與雙方求同存異的共同認知、中華民國現行憲政體制等『政治基礎』上，持續推動兩岸關係和平穩定與發展」。而這一表述是蔡英文與幕僚字酌句斟擬就的，被認為是「曲線救國」論。

北京方面認定蔡英文的「現狀論」和「現行憲法論」，仍有割裂今昔之意涵，有曲線「兩國論」的影子，不能接受。遂決定以習近平劃的紅線為綱，強硬應對，蔡英文和民進黨不承認「九二共識」、不認同「兩岸同屬一中」，就是改變兩岸關係和平發展和台海和平穩定現狀。這是提高叫價，逼蔡英文「5‧20」前就範。

紅線撞曲線，暫陷僵局，美國急了。台灣大選後，美國曾派副國務卿布林肯與前副國務卿伯恩斯分赴兩岸。其基本立場，是管控台海風險。在聞出火藥味後，前駐北京大使芮效儉和美國在台協會前處長包道格，北京兩會期間穿梭兩岸，表達美方對台海局勢的關切。而美國在台協會前主席卜睿哲及華府智庫學者分別到訪台北、北京，會晤蔡英文、吳敦義、張志軍，盼掌握最新情勢，明確美方底線。

現在，習近平已劃出強硬紅線，力逼蔡英文就範。蔡英文與民進黨在自己要走的曲線下，是溫和地妥協還是轉向強烈反彈，兩岸關係平順發展還是「地動山搖」，在蔡英文「5‧20」就職演說前的未來60多天中，成為最大的懸念。

Xi has drawn red line

THE QUESTION of Taiwan, which has resurfaced because of political-party replacement, is that on which top leaders of the central authorities declared where they stood one after the other at lianghui (the annual sessions of the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference) this year, about which actions were immediately taken as soon as lianghui ended and which will continue to cause shocks. Against radical changes that may take place in cross-strait relations, Xi Jinping has drawn a red line, but Tsai Eng-wen intends secretly to tread a circuitous way.

We gather that Shanghai asked in a report that Xi Jinping talk to the Shanghai delegation about cross-strait relations on the grounds that Shanghai people were deeply concerned about the issue as there were 10,000 Taiwan businesses in the city and 300,000 Taiwanese lived there. In addressing the Shanghai delegation, Xi Jinping put forward his "three new propositions" regarding Taiwan: (1) "the common fate proposition" (that people living on either side of the Taiwan Strait are blood brothers sharing the same fate and family inseparable because blood is thicker than water), (2) "the proposition of the 1992 consensus being a political basis" (that the 1992 consensus clearly defines the nature of cross-strait relations and on it hinges the peaceful development of cross-strait relations) and (3) "the proposition of containing Taiwan independence" (that the mainland will resolutely stop any form of behaviour having to do with Taiwan independence or separatism and safeguard the country's sovereignty and territorial integrity).

Having won the election, Tsai Eng-wen began bringing about the moderation of cross-strait policies with a view to paving the way for her presidency. In the run-up to the election, she put forward a proposition of "maintaining the status quo" and then mentioned one about "the constitutional order of the Republic of China". She subsequently said she "approved of the spirit of mutual understanding and accommodation the two sides then upheld". After she had won the election, she said she would "continue to work for cross-strait peace and stability and the development of cross-strait relations on such 'political bases' as the historical fact of the 1992 cross-strait talks between the two bodies, the two sides' common acknowledgment that they should seek common ground while reserving differences and the constitutional system in force of the Republic of China". This proposition, in coming up with which Tsai Eng-wen and her aides carefully weighed their words, is regarded as a proposition of a "circuitous way of saving the country"

Convinced that Tsai's "status quo proposition" and "constitution in force proposition" imply the severing of the present and the past and are redolent of a circuitous "two-country" theory, Beijing considers neither of them acceptable. It has therefore decided to regard the red line Xi Jinping has drawn as the key link and take a tough line in dealing with the matter. Unless Tsai Eng-wen and the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) accept "the 1992 consensus" and agree that "both sides of the Taiwan Strait belong to one China", they will be taken as desirous of changing the status quo, in which cross-strait relations are developing peacefully and there is not only peace but also stability in the Taiwan Strait. By raising its bid, Beijing is trying to bring Tsai Eng-wen to heel in the run-up to May 20.

Xi Jinping has drawn a red line in a tough-line way and is making vigorous attempts to bring Tsai Eng-wen to heel. Will she and the DPP moderately come to a compromise or switch to vigorous defiance in treading their circuitous way? Will cross-strait relations develop smoothly or experience earthshaking changes? These questions will keep people in suspense more than any other issue in the sixty-odd days preceding May 20, when Tsai Eng-wen is to deliver her inaugural speech.

兩岸大變局 習劃紅線蔡走曲線

今年的人大政協「兩會」，中央高層接連表態、會後立即行動、未來將持續震動的，就是因政黨輪替重現的台灣問題。針對兩岸關係大變局，習近平已劃明紅線，蔡英文則有意暗走曲線。

據悉，上海曾以有萬家台商、30萬台灣人居住、高度關切為由，寫報告要求習近平到上海團談談兩岸關係。習近平上海團談話提出對台「新三論」，一是「命運共同體論」，強調兩岸同胞是「命運與共的骨肉兄弟」、「血濃於水的一家人」；二是「九二共識政治基礎論」，強調「九二共識」，明確界定兩岸關係性質，是確保兩岸關係和平發展的關鍵；三是「遏止台獨論」，即堅決遏制任何形式的台獨分裂行徑，維護國家主權和領土完整。

蔡英文勝選後，為未來執政鋪路而營造兩岸政策溫和化。選前她先提「維持現狀」論，又提「中華民國憲政秩序」說。後來又說「認同當年雙方秉持相互諒解的精神」。勝選後，蔡英文說會以「1992年兩岸兩會會談的歷史事實與雙方求同存異的共同認知、中華民國現行憲政體制等『政治基礎』上，持續推動兩岸關係和平穩定與發展」。而這一表述是蔡英文與幕僚字酌句斟擬就的，被認為是「曲線救國」論。

北京方面認定蔡英文的「現狀論」和「現行憲法論」，仍有割裂今昔之意涵，有曲線「兩國論」的影子，不能接受。遂決定以習近平劃的紅線為綱，強硬應對，蔡英文和民進黨不承認「九二共識」、不認同「兩岸同屬一中」，就是改變兩岸關係和平發展和台海和平穩定現狀。這是提高叫價，逼蔡英文「5‧20」前就範。

現在，習近平已劃出強硬紅線，力逼蔡英文就範。蔡英文與民進黨在自己要走的曲線下，是溫和地妥協還是轉向強烈反彈，兩岸關係平順發展還是「地動山搖」，在蔡英文「5‧20」就職演說前的未來60多天中，成為最大的懸念。