美國支持「安倍談話」 東海從此風高浪急

<轉載自2015年8月17日 明報 社評>

在第二次世界大戰結束70周年之際，日本首相安倍晉三發表談話，表面上把「侵略」、「殖民統治」、「反省」及「道歉」4種此前「村山談話」的表述都用上，其實俱是脫離具體語意框架的抽空言辭，說到底就如中國官方新華社所言「糊弄歷史，欺瞞世人」。中國對「安倍談話」強烈批評，指安倍欠缺誠意；韓國也有類似反應。美國則由代表總統的白宮發表聲明，歡迎日本對歷史深刻反省。「安倍談話」迴避道歉及歷史責任，美國則認為戰後70年的日本是其他國家「典範」，中美對「安倍談話」認知的歧異，折射出兩套完全不一樣的西太平洋戰略取態，未來東海的爭逐，勢必更為激烈。

中美展示對安倍立場 西太平洋博弈明顯

「安倍談話」引起中韓抨擊，其中又以北京的批評最為猛烈，因為某程度而言，自從去年底亞太經合組織（APEC）峰會之後，北京採取相對溫和的對日本態度，據中國的說法，確認峰會前中日達成協議的4項原則，希望兩國關係可以改善。北京這種善意，安倍政府顯然未有領情，到了「安倍談話」發表，內裏字眼及整篇談話內容，明顯未能達到北京的期許及要求。再者，日本欲通過「安倍談話」結束就歷史的爭論，但對近年聲聲外交軍事「大國崛起」的北京來說，「安倍談話」不可能是令北京放軟姿態的下台階，而且由於感到被安倍擺了一道，對安倍政權從此死心。

西太平洋兩個超級大國中國及美國，對「安倍談話」反應南轅北轍，客觀上把東海的矛盾及糾紛擺上枱面。中國的取態大致與前相若，所謂「軟」或「硬」態度是策略之故；美國在足以點燃中日衝突的歷史問題支持日本，把多年來在東亞的「模糊戰略」紗帳拿走，露出真正態度。事態發展予人的感覺，是一篇「安倍談話」把中美在日本問題上的底牌一下子逼出來，變成難以後退，展開這場東海博弈。因為只要從這條線稍一退讓，北京無法面對近年高漲的民族主義情緒，美國則會被質疑對盟友的支持決心。

中國政府對東海一線爭逐的重視，大大超過對南海的看重，因為南海周邊國家雖多，卻非完全與北京對立。中國近年在南海的處理手法輕重結合，2013年底在東海設立防空識別區之後，在南海也設防空識別區之議一度「聞得樓梯響」，到近期連提也沒提，由此可見，海軍戰力被認為落後美國及日本的中國，重點仍在東海。東海除了是中國的海上生命線，更重要是東海面對的國家是日本及太平洋遠處的美國，中國大陸東海岸是人口最密集、經濟最繁盛的都會地區，上海、江蘇、浙江俱在其內，經滬浙可北上京津南下閩粵；沿長江直入，華中華西廣大腹地都是目標，因此駐紮此地的東海艦隊及黃海一帶的北海艦隊，是中國海軍實力最強的部隊。

西太平洋「新三國演義」衝擊危機難即消弭

如今「安倍談話」把中美逼出台前，從以前的中國單鬥日本，變成中國對抗美日聯盟，東海爭逐勢必風高浪急，波濤洶湧。可以想像，小小的東海區域，擠上3支以量而言位列世界前沿的海軍艦艇及戰機，加上釣魚島糾紛及台灣問題，需要極高的政治智慧才能免於更大的衝突發生。觀乎這一刻涉及東海的諸國，仍未見到有着可以往後退一步的誘因﹕中國不退是因為自身安全及民族主義，美國則要爭奪西太平洋及遏制中國，日本是為保住一己最大利益。西太平洋這齣「三國演義」，將是未來至少20年的兵家必爭之地，而中日之間的對立，要待安倍下台之後始能從長計議。但最近幾年各國之間敵對意識積聚，就是領袖更迭，亦難即消弭東海危機。

Rivalry in East China Sea

ON the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe delivered a speech. It includes "aggression", "colonial rule", "remorse" and "apology", the four key expressions the Murayama Statement contains. However, they are rhetoric taken out of specific semantic context. In the final analysis, such rhetoric is meant to "make a mess of history and deceive the world" as Xinhua (China's official news agency) has said. China has torn the Abe Statement to pieces, calling the Japanese Prime Minister insincere. South Korea has responded to it similarly. However, the White House has issued a statement on behalf of the US President that says the US welcomes Japan's deep remorse for what it did. The Abe Statement is evasive about apology and Japan's responsibility for what it did, but the US takes the view that Japan has so behaved since WWII ended 70 years ago that its record stands as a "model" for nations everywhere. The difference between Beijing's perception of the Abe Statement and Washington's points to two totally different strategic attitudes towards the Western Pacific Ocean. Rivalry in the East China Sea will unavoidably become even much fiercer.

The US sides with Japan about an issue of history that may well ignite a Sino-Japanese conflict. It has removed its "strategic ambiguity" veil and revealed its true stance on East Asia. What has happened gives the impression that the Abe Statement has forced both China and the US to put on the table their respective hands in respect of Japan. It is hard for neither to step back from the East China Sea game. If Beijing does so, it cannot face the nationalistic sentiment that has run high in recent years. If the US does so, its determination to support its allies will be called into question.

The Chinese government attaches much greater importance to the rivalry in the East China Sea than that in the South China Sea. The reason is that, though many countries border on the South China Sea, all of them are not antagonistic towards China. The East China Sea is China's maritime lifeline. More important, the East China Sea faces not only Japan but also the US (on the other side of the Pacific). The eastern coast of the Chinese mainland is a metropolitan region most densely populated and most economically prosperous. It includes Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang.

The Abe Statement has now forced China and the US to come onstage. China used to fight only Japan, but it has now to cope with a US-Japanese alliance. Therefore, rivalry in the East China Sea will be stormy and billowy. Three navies and three air forces that quantity-wise are in the front rank of the world's will with their own warships and warplanes meet in the tiny East China Sea when there are disputes over the Diaoyu Islets and the Taiwan question remains to be settled. Imaginably, it takes an extremely high degree of political wisdom to prevent a direr conflict from taking place there. At this moment, none of the countries that have something to do with the East China Sea seems to have any incentive to take a step backward. China will not because of its own security and nationalism. The US wants to be in control of the Western Pacific Ocean and contain China. Japan intends to preserve its best interests. The Western Pacific Ocean will remain for at least two decades an area contested by all strategists. As for Sino-Japanese antagonism, it will remain impossible for the two countries to talk about it at length until Abe steps down. Nevertheless, enmity has in recent years grown so much between the countries that the East China Sea crisis will remain even if their leaders are replaced.

美國支持「安倍談話」 東海從此風高浪急

在第二次世界大戰結束70周年之際，日本首相安倍晉三發表談話，表面上把「侵略」、「殖民統治」、「反省」及「道歉」4種此前「村山談話」的表述都用上，其實俱是脫離具體語意框架的抽空言辭，說到底就如中國官方新華社所言「糊弄歷史，欺瞞世人」。中國對「安倍談話」強烈批評，指安倍欠缺誠意；韓國也有類似反應。美國則由代表總統的白宮發表聲明，歡迎日本對歷史深刻反省。「安倍談話」迴避道歉及歷史責任，美國則認為戰後70年的日本是其他國家「典範」，中美對「安倍談話」認知的歧異，折射出兩套完全不一樣的西太平洋戰略取態，未來東海的爭逐，勢必更為激烈。

美國在足以點燃中日衝突的歷史問題支持日本，把多年來在東亞的「模糊戰略」紗帳拿走，露出真正態度。事態發展予人的感覺，是一篇「安倍談話」把中美在日本問題上的底牌一下子逼出來，變成難以後退，展開這場東海博弈。因為只要從這條線稍一退讓，北京無法面對近年高漲的民族主義情緒，美國則會被質疑對盟友的支持決心。

中國政府對東海一線爭逐的重視，大大超過對南海的看重，因為南海周邊國家雖多，卻非完全與北京對立。東海除了是中國的海上生命線，更重要是東海面對的國家是日本及太平洋遠處的美國，中國大陸東海岸是人口最密集、經濟最繁盛的都會地區，上海、江蘇、浙江俱在其內。

如今「安倍談話」把中美逼出台前，從以前的中國單鬥日本，變成中國對抗美日聯盟，東海爭逐勢必風高浪急，波濤洶湧。可以想像，小小的東海區域，擠上3支以量而言位列世界前沿的海軍艦艇及戰機，加上釣魚島糾紛及台灣問題，需要極高的政治智慧才能免於更大的衝突發生。觀乎這一刻涉及東海的諸國，仍未見到有着可以往後退一步的誘因﹕中國不退是因為自身安全及民族主義，美國則要爭奪西太平洋及遏制中國，日本是為保住一己最大利益。西太平洋將是未來至少20年的兵家必爭之地，而中日之間的對立，要待安倍下台之後始能從長計議。但最近幾年各國之間敵對意識積聚，就是領袖更迭，亦難即消弭東海危機。