中土外交抑制疆獨 釜底抽薪須紓民怨

<轉載自2015年8月3日 明報 社評>

土耳其總統埃爾多安上周訪華，與國家主席習近平會晤，討論戰略經濟合作，也觸及兩國關係中最敏感的疆獨問題。埃爾多安強調，反對任何人在土耳其境內從事任何破壞中國主權和領土完整的活動，也反對一切形式的恐怖主義，這令到兩國因為近期土耳其爆發激烈反華示威而變得緊張的關係得以緩和。要應付疆獨和伊斯蘭恐怖主義問題，北京無疑需要土耳其方面的協助，但若要釜底抽薪，還得加緊從紓緩民族矛盾方向着手。

反華示威衝擊關係 總統訪華合作為上

近月土耳其和中國的關係，因為新疆維吾爾人處境的問題而掀起波瀾。儘管中方多番強調消息不實，然而有關中國政府禁止齋月封齋、強迫新疆維吾爾人在齋月期間進食，甚至殺害一些違反禁令回民的傳聞，仍然在土耳其廣泛流傳，結果引發當地部分右翼民族主義分子和維吾爾人7月初在首都安卡拉和伊斯坦布爾舉行激烈的反華示威。一些抗議者除了在中國領事館外焚燒中國國旗，連貌似中國人的韓國遊客也被追打，導致中方要對國人發出前往土耳其的旅遊警示。

可是一波未平一波又起，泰國政府將百多名被指計劃經土耳其前往中東加入「伊斯蘭國」的維吾爾人遣返中國，引起土耳其人和維吾爾人的激烈抗議，令兩國關係面臨考驗。

歷史上，無論是現在的土耳其還是昔日的奧斯曼帝國，都以整個中亞地區突厥語系人口的保護者自居，新疆維吾爾族穆斯林也包括其中，這導致維吾爾人問題在土耳其格外備受關注，並嚴重影響了土耳其人對中國的觀感，例如在最新的皮尤全球民調，只有不足兩成土耳其人對中國有好感，比例是除日本以外最差的。

然而隨着中國崛起，一直尋求加入歐盟無果、長期搖擺於歐亞之間的土耳其政府，也不得不因應國際政治和經濟現實，加強與中國交往，兩國於5年前宣布建立「戰略合作關係」。目前中國已成為僅次於德國的土耳其第二大貿易伙伴，雙方貿易額由10年前的6.5億美元急增至去年的230億美元，土耳其的安卡拉至伊斯坦布爾高鐵建設，更成為了中國首個在海外承建的高鐵項目。

土耳其近年與墨西哥、印尼和尼日利亞被合稱為「金幣四國」（MINT），成為中俄印巴「金磚四國」後又一股新興經濟勢力。對土耳其來說，抓緊當前經濟機遇，深化與中國的經濟合作，可說是當前要務，至於中方也希望土耳其積極參與「一帶一路」戰略之中。

正是中土兩國這種既複雜又微妙的關係，令到埃爾多安在維族問題上力圖採取慎重立場，設法在迎合民情的同時，又避免損害中土之間的合作。上月初爆發反華示威後，埃爾多安公開稱，對新疆維族兄弟姊妹的處境表示痛心，但同時亦譴責示威暴力，又批評土耳其媒體一些關於中國政府打壓維人的報道涉嫌「誇大揑造」，煽動民眾憤怒情緒，導致激烈抗議活動。

在上周訪華之行，埃爾多安積極向中方釋出善意，避免維族問題妨礙合作。據中土兩國官方媒體報道，埃爾多安除表明支持「一帶一路」構思並願積極參與，又明確表示支持中國主權和領土完整，反對「東伊運」等針對中國的恐怖主義行徑，絕不允許兩國戰略合作關係受到破壞勢力的干擾。針對中方關注土耳其一些激進組織協助維族經東南亞偷渡到土耳其、導致兩國關係緊張，埃爾多安承諾就打擊偷渡問題加強與中方合作。

當然，埃爾多安這些承諾會否只是隨便開出的空頭支票，還得走着瞧，但對北京來說，土耳其的合作確實相當重要，尤其是極端組織「伊斯蘭國」近年在中東冒起，中國必須先得到土耳其當局全力配合遏止偷渡，始能防止有新疆極端分子經由土耳其出入毗鄰的「伊斯蘭國」，與當地的聖戰勢力接觸串連。

強硬政策未遏恐襲 治疆還須剛柔並濟

不過，北京若要在疆獨和恐怖主義問題上做到釜底抽薪，除了在外交方面下工夫，也應透徹思考是否需要調整當前的治疆政策。中共十八大後，北京在新疆採取強硬政策，然而恐襲活動不僅未見停止，反而還進一步向內陸蔓延，由前年10月的吉普車襲擊天安門事件，到去年昆明火車站、烏魯木齊火車站等地的斬人恐襲，可謂幕幕驚心。《紐約時報》近日提到，儘管土耳其坊間流傳中國官方強迫新疆維族在穆斯林齋月期間進食的傳聞並不準確，所謂有人因為違抗相關命令而被殺的說法更是未經證實，但近年來在新疆一些以維吾爾族為主的地區，當局的確有禁止政府官員、教師和學生白天封齋。雖然有關禁令並非普遍針對社會公眾，但難免容易令一些虔誠穆斯林反感。處理新疆問題，北京必須剛柔並濟，靈活變通，始能紓減民族之間的矛盾和對立情緒。

Sino-Turkish diplomacy

LAST WEEK Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited China. At his meeting with President Xi Jinping, the two leaders talked about strategic economic cooperation. They also touched on Xinjiang separatism, which is the most sensitive issue bearing on Sino-Turkish relations. Erdogan stressed that the Turkish government was against any form of terrorism and any activity in Turkish territory that might harm China's sovereignty and territorial integrity. This has helped ease Sino-Turkish relations, which became tense recently because Turkey saw violent anti-China demonstrations.

It is because Sino-Turkish relations are as complicated as they are subtle that Erdogan has tried his best to tread a cautious line in dealing with the Uighur issue. He has tried to be in accord with public sentiment in Turkey without jeopardising Sino-Turkish cooperation. Early last month, after the anti-China demonstrations had broken out, Erdogan openly said the situation in which his Xinjiang Uighur brothers and sisters found themselves grieved him. However, at the same time, he condemned violent acts in those demonstrations and criticised Turkish media organisations for their reports on the Chinese government's repression of the Uighur people, saying there were suspicions that their stories were "exaggerated" and even "fabricated", incited anger and led to the violent demonstrations.

During his China visit, Erdogan made positive attempts to "exude kindness" towards the Chinese lest the Uighur issue should become an obstacle to Sino-Turkish cooperation. According to the two countries' official media reports, not only did Erdogan make it clear that the Turkish government supported the "One Belt One Road" idea and was eager to play a part, but he also declared that Turkey respected China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, that it was firmly against any terrorist acts directed at China by such organisations as the East Turkish Islamic Movement, and that it would by no means allow Sino-Turkish cooperative relations to be disrupted. As China was concerned that some radical organisations in Turkey helped smuggle Uighurs into the country via Southeast Asia, Erdogan pledged that Ankara would work more closely with Beijing to crack down on illegal immigration.

Needless to say, it remains to be seen whether Erdogan's pledges will prove rubber cheques drawn out casually. However, Turkey's cooperation is indeed quite important to Beijing, especially because the Islamic State (IS), an extremist organisation, has emerged in the Middle East. The Chinese government must have the Turkish government's full support before it can prevent Xinjiang extremists from going into or getting out of IS via Turkey or getting in touch or become associated with any jihad forces.

However, if Beijing wants to eradicate what may breed Xinjiang separatism or terrorism, it must not only make diplomatic efforts but also think thoroughly whether it is necessary to modify the policy under which Xinjiang is being run. Since the 18th Congress of the Communist Party of China ended, Beijing has pursued a hard line in the autonomous region. Nevertheless, terrorism has not ceased. It has in fact spread even farther. A recent New York Times article says that, while rumours circulating in Turkey that the Chinese authorities have compelled Xinjiang Muslims to have meals in the month of Ramadan are less than accurate and reports that some have been killed for defying the order are unverified, it is a fact that, in certain districts where Uighurs predominate, the authorities have banned officials, teachers and students from fasting in the daytime. Such a ban is liable to repel devout Muslims though it is not universally applicable. In dealing with the Xinjiang problem, Beijing must be flexible and use both hard and soft tactics before it can allay ethnic antagonism.

中土外交抑制疆獨 釜底抽薪須紓民怨

土耳其總統埃爾多安上周訪華，與國家主席習近平會晤，討論戰略經濟合作，也觸及兩國關係中最敏感的疆獨問題。埃爾多安強調，反對任何人在土耳其境內從事任何破壞中國主權和領土完整的活動，也反對一切形式的恐怖主義，這令到兩國因為近期土耳其爆發激烈反華示威而變得緊張的關係得以緩和。

正是中土兩國既複雜又微妙的關係，令到埃爾多安在維族問題上力圖採取慎重立場，設法在迎合民情的同時，又避免損害中土之間的合作。上月初爆發反華示威後，埃爾多安公開稱，對新疆維族兄弟姊妹的處境表示痛心，但同時亦譴責示威暴力，又批評土耳其媒體一些關於中國政府打壓維人的報道涉嫌「誇大揑造」，煽動民眾憤怒情緒，導致激烈抗議活動。

在上周訪華之行，埃爾多安積極向中方釋出善意，避免維族問題妨礙合作。據中土兩國官方媒體報道，埃爾多安除表明支持「一帶一路」構思並願積極參與，又明確表示支持中國主權和領土完整，反對「東伊運」等針對中國的恐怖主義行徑，絕不允許兩國戰略合作關係受到破壞勢力的干擾。針對中方關注土耳其一些激進組織協助維族經東南亞偷渡到土耳其，埃爾多安承諾就打擊偷渡問題加強與中方合作。

當然，埃爾多安這些承諾會否只是隨便開出的空頭支票，還得走着瞧，但對北京來說，土耳其的合作確實相當重要，尤其是極端組織「伊斯蘭國」近年在中東冒起，中國必須先得到土耳其當局全力配合，始能防止有新疆極端分子經由土耳其出入毗鄰的「伊斯蘭國」，與當地的聖戰勢力接觸串連。

不過，北京若要在疆獨和恐怖主義問題上做到釜底抽薪，除了在外交方面下工夫，也應透徹思考是否需要調整當前的治疆政策。中共十八大後，北京在新疆採取強硬政策，然而恐襲活動不僅未見停止，反而還進一步蔓延。《紐約時報》近日提到，儘管土耳其坊間流傳中國官方強迫新疆維族在穆斯林齋月期間進食的傳聞並不準確，所謂有人因為違抗相關命令而被殺的說法更是未經證實，但近年來在新疆一些以維吾爾族為主的地區，當局的確有禁止政府官員、教師和學生白天封齋。雖然有關禁令並非普遍針對社會公眾，但難免容易令一些虔誠穆斯林反感。處理新疆問題，北京必須剛柔並濟，靈活變通，始能紓減民族之間的對立情緒。