國防白皮書駁威脅論 反分裂鬥爭成為焦點

<轉載自2019年7月25日 明報 社評>

國務院發表《新時代的中國國防》白皮書，強調堅決捍衛國家主權、安全、發展利益，是新時代中國國防「根本目標」，中國堅持永不稱霸、永不謀求勢力範圍。今次是國家主席習近平上任以來，首度發表綜合型國防白皮書，花了不少篇幅闡述國防政策和軍隊建設的戰略方向，一大目標相信是提高戰略意圖透明度，減少國際社會對「中國威脅論」疑慮。白皮書沒有觸及香港，國防部發言人回答記者提問，表示關注香港形勢發展。我們相信，事情可以亦應該由特區政府自行處理，解放軍毋須介入。

捍衛主權永不稱霸 北京闡述戰略意圖

白皮書談及近年軍改進展，闡述改革後兵種基本情况和指揮體制變化，反映中央認為現階段軍改已大致完成，是時候綜合總結。中國國防政策和軍費，一直是國際社會最關注的問題之一，白皮書亦針對這兩個議題，單獨成章分別交代，盼以具體數據和說清楚戰略意圖，回應外界疑慮，試圖破除「中國威脅論」。

軍費方面，白皮書羅列了大量數字，兼顧縱比橫比，藉以強調過去數年國防開支增長適度合理﹕2012年至2017年，國防經費年均增長9.42%，與國家財政支出年均10.43%增長步伐相適應；期內國防費佔GDP總值平均比重為1.3%，是聯合國安理會常任理事國之中最低，國防費佔財政支出平均比重約為5.3%，跟英國相若，比美俄印度少一大截，至於人均國防費更僅及美俄英法等國5％至25％。每年北京「兩會」交代軍費開支，均惹來西方議論，部分言論有斷章取義或炒作之嫌。提高透明度是最佳抗衡方法，北京當局可以朝這方面更加努力。

國防政策方面，白皮書詳述新時代中國奉行的「防禦性國防政策」，交代戰略意圖。白皮書強調堅決捍衛國家主權、安全和發展利益，是中國國防根本目標，並首度表明新時代中國國防，「鮮明特徵」是永不稱霸、永不擴張、永不謀求勢力範圍，至於「世界意義」則是為構建人類命運共同體服務。回顧歷史，戰略意圖誤判，往往是大國墮入修昔底德陷阱主因，比起軍費透明，戰略意圖透明更重要。西方對中國崛起有猜忌，看待白皮書，可能更關心有關保護海外利益的段落，是否意味中國兵力投射能力顯著提升，又或「國防開支與保障國家發展需要仍有較大差距」，是否意味軍費持續增長，云云，然而白皮書闡述的戰略意圖，某程度也是中方公開承諾，就算未能即時增強互信，一定比不說為佳。

當前香港社會動盪，駐港解放軍動向受到關注。白皮書談的是國家大政策，內容沒有談及香港，乃是意料之內，不過國防部發言人出席記者會，也有回應近期香港局勢以及「港獨」勢力是否抬頭的提問。發言人表示密切關注香港形勢發展，重申衝擊中聯辦觸碰一國兩制原則底線，會後記者追問駐港解放軍會否介入，他表示關於這一具體問題，《駐軍法》第3章第14條有明確規定。

港局勢毋須駐軍介入 「黑手論」港陷中美漩渦

根據《駐軍法》相關條文，特區政府根據《基本法》，必要時可向中央請求香港駐軍協助維持社會治安和救災。今次是近期中央部門首次具體談及駐港解放軍會否介入，然而際此敏感時刻，必須避免捕風捉影過分解讀。國防部發言人的說法，相信只是重申「依法辦事」這一大原則，是否要求駐軍協助，主動權在特區政府手中。本月特區政府兩次澄清，否認特首要求解放軍出動。我們認為，為了一國兩制，當前香港局勢應由香港自行收拾，解放軍毋須介入。

白皮書談到國土安全威脅，重點談論台獨，另外亦有提及境外「藏獨」、「東突厥斯坦」等分裂勢力活動頻繁。觀乎白皮書內容，港獨問題遠遠未到威脅國土安全層次，然而白皮書對台獨的強硬表述，值得留意。白皮書強調「反分裂鬥爭形勢更加嚴峻」，批評台灣民進黨當局「挾洋自重」推動台獨，北京有堅定決心和強大能力維護國家主權和領土完整，並重申中共19大報告的「六個任何」，「絕不允許任何人、任何組織、任何政黨、在任何時候、以任何形式、把任何一塊中國領土從中國分裂出去」，若有人要「把台灣從中國分裂出去」，中國軍隊將不惜代價捍衛國家統一。

中美角力激烈，華府不斷操作「台灣牌」，為台獨張目，白皮書反映中方不會坐視，堅決維護領土和主權完整。早前中聯辦主任王志民談到香港局勢，亦有批評香港有極少數人「挾洋自重亂中取利」，外交部發言人華春瑩則說絕不容忍任何外部勢力插手香港事務，「奉勸（美國）收回在香港伸出的黑手」。「黑手」是很嚴重指控，突顯北京認為有足夠材料顯示，香港已成為美國向中方索要利益的一張牌。「挾洋自重」、「黑手」等強硬措辭，令人擔心香港會全面成為中美對抗博弈之地，香港繁榮穩定將蒙上不確定因素。

China's National Defence in the New Era

THE STATE COUNCIL has published a white paper titled China's National Defence in the New Era, stressing that resolutely safeguarding China's sovereignty, security and development interests will be the "fundamental goal" of China's national defence in the new era.

The white paper talks about the progress of China's military reform in recent years and explains the overall situation of different branches of the armed forces and the command system. This shows that the central government believes that, generally speaking, this stage of military reform is complete, and it is time to sum up the progress. China's defence policies and spending have long been one of the questions that the international community is most concerned about. The white paper dedicates separate chapters to these topics, trying to cite concrete data and explain clearly its strategic intent so as to address the international community's concern and try to shatter the "China threat" theory.

As for military expenses, the white paper includes a large amount of data with both longitudinal and cross‑sectional comparisons to stress that the rise in military spending over the past few years has been appropriate and reasonable. Between 2012 and 2017, military spending rose by 9.42% yearly, which is in line with the 10.43% increase in government expenditure. During the period, military spending accounted for 1.3% of China's GDP on average, the lowest percentage among the permanent members of the UN Security Council. Military spending accounted for around 5.3% of government expenditure, which was similar to the percentage of the UK and much lower than that of the US, Russia and India. As for military spending per capita, China's figure is only 5% to 25% of that of the US, Russia, the UK or France. Every year when the "two sessions" in Beijing disclose China's military spending, it invariably attracts discussion in the West. Some of the commentators seem to take matters out of context or blow things out of proportion. Increasing transparency is the best countermeasure. The Beijing authorities can work harder in this direction.

As for defence policies, the white paper details China's "defensive national defence policy" in the new era and explains China's strategic intent. The white paper stresses that resolutely safeguarding China's sovereignty, security and development interests will be the "fundamental goal" of China's national defence. It also declares for the first time that the distinctive feature of China's national defence in the new era is "never seeking hegemony, expansion or spheres of influence", while the global significance is "to be in the service of the building of a community with a shared future for mankind". Looking back at history, misjudgment of the other side's strategic intent has often been the primary reason why great powers fell into the Thucydides's Trap. So transparency in the strategic intent is even more important than transparency in military spending. The West has misgivings about China's rise. When reading the white paper, it might pay more attention to paragraphs dedicated to the protection of overseas interests. It is also concerned about whether the words "there is still a wide gap between China's defence expenditure and the requirements for safeguarding national sovereignty" mean that China's military spending will continue to rise. But the strategic intent stated in the white paper is, to a certain extent, China's promise made publicly. Even if it cannot increase mutual trust instantly, it is definitely better than saying nothing at all.

Hong Kong society is in turmoil, and the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison's future moves have attracted attention. The white paper is about the country's grand strategies and, as expected, does not talk about Hong Kong. However, the spokesperson of the defence ministry did talk about the recent situation in Hong Kong and whether the forces advocating "Hong Kong's independence" are on the rise in a press conference.

國防白皮書駁威脅論 反分裂鬥爭成為焦點

國務院發表《新時代的中國國防》白皮書，強調堅決捍衛國家主權、安全、發展利益，是新時代中國國防「根本目標」。

白皮書談及近年軍改進展，闡述改革後兵種基本情况和指揮體制變化，反映中央認為現階段軍改已大致完成，是時候綜合總結。中國國防政策和軍費，一直是國際社會最關注的問題之一，白皮書亦針對這兩個議題，單獨成章分別交代，盼以具體數據和說清楚戰略意圖，回應外界疑慮，試圖破除「中國威脅論」。

軍費方面，白皮書羅列了大量數字，兼顧縱比橫比，藉以強調過去數年國防開支增長適度合理：2012年至2017年，國防經費年均增長9.42%，與國家財政支出年均10.43%增長步伐相適應；期內國防費佔GDP總值平均比重為1.3%，是聯合國安理會常任理事國之中最低，國防費佔財政支出平均比重約為5.3%，跟英國相若，比美俄印度少一大截，至於人均國防費更僅及美俄英法等國5％至25％。每年北京「兩會」交代軍費開支，均惹來西方議論，部分言論有斷章取義或炒作之嫌。提高透明度是最佳抗衡方法，北京當局可以朝這方面更加努力。

國防政策方面，白皮書詳述新時代中國奉行的「防禦性國防政策」，交代戰略意圖。白皮書強調堅決捍衛國家主權、安全和發展利益，是中國國防根本目標，並首度表明新時代中國國防，「鮮明特徵」是永不稱霸、永不擴張、永不謀求勢力範圍，至於「世界意義」則是為構建人類命運共同體服務。回顧歷史，戰略意圖誤判，往往是大國墮入修昔底德陷阱主因，比起軍費透明，戰略意圖透明更重要。西方對中國崛起有猜忌，看待白皮書，可能更關心有關保護海外利益的段落，又或「國防開支與保障國家發展需要仍有較大差距」，是否意味軍費持續增長，云云，然而白皮書闡述的戰略意圖，某程度也是中方公開承諾，就算未能即時增強互信，一定比不說為佳。

當前香港社會動盪，駐港解放軍動向受到關注。白皮書談的是國家大政策，內容沒有談及香港，乃是意料之內，不過國防部發言人出席記者會，也有回應近期香港局勢以及「港獨」勢力是否抬頭的提問。