左右逢源歲月不再 匯控前景挑戰重重

 <轉載自2020年9月22日 明報 社評>

匯控內外交困壞消息不斷，股價江河日下，跌穿「海嘯價位」，散戶昔日的「愛股」變成了噩夢。冰封三尺非一日之寒，金融海嘯後，匯控長期積弱不振，疫情爆發重挫環球經濟，匯控經營環境更見艱難，內部面臨大規模裁員壓力；中美鬥爭愈演愈烈，匯控作為一間業務立足香港的英國註冊企業，捲入大國博弈漩渦，華為副董事長孟晚舟案，匯控被指暗助美國，國家商務部周六公布《不可靠實體清單規定》，匯控會否列入其中，足以影響公司在香港和內地的發展前景。國際形勢起變，以往可以八面玲瓏，今後未必能夠左右逢源，匯控面對的外部困境，某程度也折射了刻下香港的困局。一子錯滿盤皆落索，匯控不易重獲內地信任，就算今次未被列作「不可靠實體」，長遠發展也難免荊棘滿途。

匯控跌穿「海嘯價」 散戶「無息」欲哭無淚

匯控資產規模位列全球十大，香港和內地業務是匯控收入和利潤最大來源，單是香港便貢獻約三分之一的收入和一半的稅前盈利，至於內地業務亦進帳不少。曾幾何時，匯控在香港股壇舉足輕重，恒指是升是跌，還看匯控股價走勢。基於歷史原因，不少港人對於這間以倫敦為總部的英資大行，仍有一些情意結，覺得匯控與香港緊扣相連、休戚與共，2008 年金融海嘯重挫環球金融業，匯控需要供股集資救亡，香港許多散戶也有積極參與，然而匯控內部積弱之局，海嘯後從未顯著改善。今年初疫情爆發，環球經濟急轉直下，中美關係嚴重惡化，有關匯控的壞消息，更是傳個不停。

疫下匯控業績大幅倒退，上半年稅後利潤大跌近七成，大規模裁員計劃勢在必行。不少散戶長期持貨，一大原因是看上匯控定期派息，未料早前英國政府下令，包括匯控在內的所有英國銀行必須預留充足資本，疫下不得派息，持貨散戶突然失去一筆相對穩定的收益，現在更要看着匯控股價輾轉向下，跌穿30元心理關口，回到海嘯時的水平，散戶當然欲哭無淚。

昨天匯控股價急跌，導火線有二，一是外界有傳匯控可能被國家商務部列入「不可靠實體清單」，二是匯控再度被揭未有嚴打洗黑錢活動，美國財政部外泄文件顯示，匯控明知美國監管機構正在調查一宗龐氏騙局，但仍容許騙徒在全球轉移近億美元款項，未有及早取消相關戶口。環球金融業打擊洗錢不力，為人詬病多年。2012年，匯控被指捲入洗黑錢活動，華府窮追猛打，匯控為免起訴，與華府達成19億美元和解協議，承諾加強內部監管。外泄文件揭露的事件，涉及金額不多，惟始終發生在和解協議之後，匯控會否再有法律麻煩，暫難預料，不少投資者眼下最擔心的，反而是匯控會否成為「不可靠實體」。

匯控內部積弱，固然拖累股價表現，國際形勢遽變牽動外部政治因素，對匯控同樣非常不利。匯控作為跨國金融巨頭，立足香港放眼內地，其獨特角色和位置，本是優勢所在，然而近年中美關係急劇惡化，原本的「優勢位」反而變成了「三煞位」。華府千方百計試圖阻撓中國科技發展，一再出手打擊中國科技公司，繼中興、華為之後，最近又向TikTok及WeChat等埋手。國家商務部日前公布的《不可靠實體清單規定》，意味北京已做好法規方面的準備，隨時可以向美方採取反制行動，任何公司一旦列入「不可靠實體清單」，在內地的投資活動有可能被禁止，又或受到限制。

匯控陷困如履薄冰 一子錯滿盤皆落索

目前北京尚未指明哪些企業列入清單，也不知道何時會公布名單，北京刻意留下懸念，外界揣測紛紜。在美國，一些分析師相信必有美國企業「上榜」，當中以涉及對台軍售的美國企業，諸如洛歇馬丁等最有可能；在內地，有記者則引述匿名消息人士稱，首輪清單「很可能」包括匯控，原因與華為有關。

匯控在華為副董事長孟晚舟案的角色，惹來甚多議論。孟晚舟律師團隊提交的法律文件指出，美方指控孟晚舟的唯一關鍵證據是由匯控提供，內地輿論質疑匯控有份「設局」令孟晚舟被捕，換取美方不再追究洗錢等問題，匯控則矢口否認。內地媒體一年前已流傳匯控會被列為「不可靠實體」，最新消息是否準確無從稽考，然而隨着中美關係愈發緊張，內地對一些英美跨國企業，戒心無疑有所增加。經過孟晚舟事件，匯控不易再獲內地信任；與此同時，匯控作為英國公司，又得面對來自英美的政治壓力，中央推出《港區國安法》，匯控集團亞太區行政總裁王冬勝簽名支持，隨即引來英美政界強烈批評。

中美關係由合作走向尖銳對抗，原本得天獨厚的香港，由東西方橋樑驟變成中美博弈戰場，對於匯控而言，昔日左右逢源的歲月，似乎亦一去不返，如何自處成為一大考驗，若不認清客觀政治現實和局限，隨時碰壁焦頭爛額。匯控的最大困境，在於既想賺香港和內地的錢，然而又無法卸下政治包袱。匯控在一些敏感問題上如履薄冰，須拿揑好分寸，孟晚舟事件將影響與內地關係，就算匯控今次能避免列入「不可靠實體清單」，內地當局看待匯控，或許不再一樣了。

HSBC can't have it both ways any longer

BESET WITH internal and external problems, HSBC Holdings has seen its share price plunge below the ''financial tsunami level'' after an endless stream of bad news. Once a favourite among small investors in stocks, the bank has now become a nightmare for its shareholders. As a corporation based in Hong Kong but registered in the UK, HSBC has found itself in the vortex of contest amid the ever-escalating rivalry between China and the US. It is alleged to have aided the US in the arrest of Huawei's deputy chairwoman Meng Wanzhou. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce on Saturday announced the Provisions on the Unreliable Entity List. Whether HSBC will be on the list or not will affect its development outlook in Hong Kong and on the mainland. Because of the changes in the international situation, players who were all things to all people in the past may no longer have it both ways. To a certain extent, the external difficulties faced by HSBC also reflect the present dilemma of Hong Kong. A single careless move may turn the entire game into a fiasco. It is hard for HSBC to regain trust from the mainland. Even if it is not among the first batch of names on the Unreliable Entity List, the bank's path of development in the long term will inevitably be full of brambles.

With its assets among the world's top ten, HSBC has its business in Hong Kong and on the mainland as its greatest source of revenues and profit. Hong Kong alone contributes around one third of its revenues and half of its profit before tax. A significant portion of the bank's profit also comes from its business on the mainland. Its problem has been a long time in the making. The bank has long been weakened ever since the financial tsunami. Because of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the global economy, its business environment has further worsened and the bank has been under huge internal pressure to lay off staff massively. The bank's performance has declined significantly amid the pandemic. It has suffered a nearly 70% drop in its after-tax profit in the first half of this year.

HSBC's share price slumped yesterday (September 21) below the psychological mark of HK$30 to reach the level in the days of the financial tsunami. There were two immediate causes of this crash. First, there are reports that HSBC may be put on the Unreliable Entity List by the Ministry of Commerce. The second one involves fresh revelations that the bank has not taken serious actions against money laundering. According to some leaked documents from the US Department of Treasury, HSBC has allowed fraudsters to move nearly US$100 million around the world rather than closing the related bank accounts at the earliest despite the bank's clear knowledge that the US's regulatory organisations are investigating a Ponzi scheme. Still, many investors are most concerned about whether HSBC will become an ''unreliable entity''.

According to the Provisions on the Unreliable Entity List announced by the Ministry of Commerce, any company added to the list will be prohibited or restricted from investing in China. At present, Beijing has not yet stated clearly which companies will be put on the list. When the list will be announced is also unknown. But a mainland journalist, citing an anonymous source, has reported that in the first round, it is ''highly possible'' that HSBC is on the list and that is because of the case of Huawei — the only key proof that Washington has to support its case against Meng Wanzhou is provided by HSBC.

HSBC's biggest dilemma is that it wants to earn Hong Kong's as well as the mainland's money but it cannot free itself from its political burdens. The bank treads a tightrope regarding some sensitive issues concerned and has to know where to draw a suitable line. Meng's case will affect its relationship with the mainland. Even if HSBC is spared from inclusion on the Unreliable Entity List this time, the way mainland authorities perceive it may no longer be the same.

左右逢源歲月不再 匯控前景挑戰重重

匯控內外交困壞消息不斷，股價江河日下，跌穿「海嘯價位」，散戶昔日的「愛股」變成了噩夢。中美鬥爭愈演愈烈，匯控作為一間業務立足香港的英國註冊企業，捲入大國博弈漩渦，華為副董事長孟晚舟案，匯控被指暗助美國，國家商務部周六公布《不可靠實體清單規定》，匯控會否列入其中，足以影響公司在香港和內地的發展前景。國際形勢起變，以往可以八面玲瓏，今後未必能夠左右逢源，匯控面對的外部困境，某程度也折射了刻下香港的困局。一子錯滿盤皆落索，匯控不易重獲內地信任，就算今次未被列作「不可靠實體」，長遠發展也難免荊棘滿途。

匯控資產規模位列全球十大，香港和內地業務是匯控收入和利潤最大來源，單是香港便貢獻約三分之一的收入和一半的稅前盈利，至於內地業務亦進帳不少。冰封三尺非一日之寒，金融海嘯後，匯控長期積弱不振，疫情爆發重挫環球經濟，匯控經營環境更見艱難，內部面臨大規模裁員壓力。疫下匯控業績大幅倒退，上半年稅後利潤大跌近七成。

昨天匯控股價急跌，跌穿30元心理關口，回到海嘯時的水平，導火線有二，一是外界有傳匯控可能被國家商務部列入「不可靠實體清單」，二是匯控再度被揭未有嚴打洗黑錢活動。美國財政部外泄文件顯示，匯控明知美國監管機構正在調查一宗龐氏騙局，但仍容許騙徒在全球轉移近億美元款項，未有及早取消相關戶口。不過，不少投資者眼下最擔心的，反而是匯控會否成為「不可靠實體」。

國家商務部日前公布《不可靠實體清單規定》，任何公司一旦列入「不可靠實體清單」，在內地的投資活動有可能被禁止，又或受到限制。目前北京尚未指明哪些企業列入清單，也不知道何時會公布名單。在內地，有記者則引述匿名消息人士稱，首輪清單「很可能」包括匯控，原因與華為有關。美方指控孟晚舟的唯一關鍵證據是由匯控提供。

匯控的最大困境，在於既想賺香港和內地的錢，然而又無法卸下政治包袱。匯控在一些敏感問題上如履薄冰，須拿揑好分寸，孟晚舟事件將影響與內地關係，就算匯控今次能避免列入「不可靠實體清單」，內地當局看待匯控，或許不再一樣了。